P2ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820Prediction, Protection & Reduction of Orbital Exposure to Collision Threats
63rd International Astronautical CongressNaples, 5 October 2012
Towards a European Collision Warning and Avoidance CentreTowards a European Collision Warning and Avoidance Centre
BURAK YAGLIOGLU
Dr. ELİF KUTDEMİR, Dr. EGEMEN IMRE, ÖZGÜN YILMAZ
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OutlineOutline
Introduction
Current Conditions and Standardized Operations
The European Collision Warning Avoidance Centre (ECWAC)
Conclusions
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IntroductionIntroduction
Space assets becoming more critical for many aspects of the daily life
More small scale operators to launch space assets
Protection of the space assets Prevention is better than cure
Well protected big players: Not enough! Any collision in space > faster cascade > everyone loses
How to enable small players to protect themselves?
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Environmental CharacteristicsEnvironmental Characteristics
LEO MEO GEO
Object Population
Characteristics†
Very high density of both trackable (~5%, > 5cm.)
and non trackable objects
Low density of trackable (>0.4 m.) and non trackable objects
High density of trackable (>1 m.) objects, stable
regions are more populated
Conjunction Characteristics
†
Impact velocities associated with
conjunctions are high and collision risk is higher around polar regions
Relatively the lowest risk of conjunction with
objects in space
Impact velocities associated with
conjunctions are relatively lower
* However, it has to be taken into account in radiation shielding design and in the operations phase.† Based on the analysis performed using the ESA MASTER 2009 software.
Good predictionHigh risk
Catastrophic results
Reasonable prediction
Very low riskCatastrophic
results??
OK predictionLow risk
Catastrophic results??
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Overview of Collision Avoidance Operations
Overview of Collision Avoidance Operations
Rough Assessment
Fine Assessment
Manoeuvre Planning
Manoeuvre Decision
Post Manoeuvre Activity
JSpOC
(CSMs, TLE data)
RADAR
(RADAR data for chaser)
Flight Dynamic
s(Precise orbit data
for target satellite)
PoC > PoC threshold
PoC > PoC threshold
PoC > PoC threshold (Platform and Mission Constraints/Considerations
)
Operator
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Main ProblemMain Problem
While big operators are able to implement standard procedures with access to:
• all sorts of data, • tools and sensors
to check for possible risks and refine the data with further sensor measurements,
most other operators have varying degrees of awareness and capabilities regarding conjunction prediction, analysis and collision avoidance manoeuvring.
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ECWACECWAC
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ECWACECWAC
More Ground and Space
Based Sensors
Consultancy in S/C and Mission
Design
New Service
Better Collision Risk
Indicators
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ECWACECWAC
ServiceAvailable
to Everyone
ServiceAvailable
to Everyone
ServiceAvailable
to Everyone
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Proposed ImprovementsProposed Improvements
Better Risk Analysis Data (For Everyone) Improved the observation sensor network for better quality Standardized risk analysis tools through a common access
point
Better and Standardized Manoeuvre Planning Better understanding of the conjunction information Standardized tools for manoeuvre planning Standardized conjunction analysis tools to be made available
during the manoeuvre planning stage
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Proposed ImprovementsProposed Improvements
Collision Avoidance as a Part of Routine Operations A well established operational procedure with all sorts of
necesssary information The measures should be initiated as early as possible The state of the conjunction event chain should be well
documented and communicated
Collision Avoidance as a Part of Design Enhance the flexibility of mission concept to account for the
risk reduction operations Establish a telemetry based system diagram including
troubleshooting and problem indicators
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ConclusionsConclusions
Space debris problem is NOT going away!
Small operators are posing a significant threat for everyone (including themselves!)
Europe can lead the way by extending SSA: ECWAC!
Through ECWAC, more awareness, more information and more tools to be made available: At design stage During regular operations When handling a conjunction event
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QUESTIONSQUESTIONS
GRAZIE!