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Overview of CNMCA activities and analysis of forecast case-studies
Alessio CANESSA
Italian Air Force Met Service
CNMCA
COSMO General Meeting 2019 – Rome, Italy
9-13 September 2019
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Outline
• Italian Air Force Met Service – CNMCA
• Operational Numerical weatherPrediction System
• Cases of model failure
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Met ITC support
COMETMet for
operations
CNMCAMet for
civilactivities
Italian Air ForceMeteorological
Service
Italian Air Force Met Service
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CNMCA mission
• To support as National Competence Centre the
Civil Protection Department and the network
of regional functional centres in the framework
of the Hydrological risks management, through
deliver data, products, services (according Direttiva
Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri del 2004);
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7 km45 v.l.40 m.
Operational Numerical Weather Prediction System
Boundary Conditions
(HRES, ENS also from BC Progr.)
RAOB (also 4D), PILOT, SYNOP, ISPRA rep., SHIP, BUOY, Wind Profilers,
AMDAR-ACAR-AIREP, Mode-S, MSG3-MET8 AMV, Metop scatt. winds,
NOAA/Metop AMSUA/MHS and NPP/NOAA ATMS radiances
Observations
2.2 km65 v.l.
LETKF(40+1 members)
Ensemble Data Assimilation:
COMET-LETKF(40+1 members)
7 km49 v.l.
Local Area Modeling:
parameterized convection
COSMO-IT00-06-12-18
UTC up to
30/48h
2.2 km65 v.l.20 m.
COSMO-IT EPS
00-12 UTC up to
48h
COSMO-ME EPS00-12 UTC up to
72h
5 km45 v.l.
2.2 km65 v.l.
COSMO-ME
00-06-12-18 UTC
up to 72h
Ensemble Prediction System:
Ensemble
AnalysisDeterministic
Analysis
explicit convection
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Comparison
COSMOIT (ITAF)COSMO-D2 (DWD)COSMO-1 (MeteoSwiss)
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Comparison 1 Aug 2019 COSMO-D2 vs COSMOIT
?
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ComparisonCOSMO-1 vs COSMOIT
?
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ComparisonCOSMO-D2 EPS vs COSMOIT EPS
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Cases of model failures
• 2 july 2018 Piemonte (heavy rain)
• 28 july 2019 Rome (heavy rain and Tornado)
• 31 july 2019 Po valley (Supercell - large hail)
• 2 august 2019 Marche (Supercell – heavy rain and downburst)
• 7 august 2019 Genova (excessive rainfall)
• 8 august 2019 17-18 UTC Udine (Supercell – heavy rain and downburst)
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2 july 2018 Piemonte
(heavy rain)21.40 UTC – 2320 UTC
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55.6 mm/h
81.2 mm/3h
2 july 2018 Piemonte (heavy rain)21.40 UTC – 2320 UTC
COSMOIT +24h
max15 mm/6h
observed
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55.6 mm/h
81.2 mm/3h
2 july 2018 Piemonte (heavy rain)21.40 UTC – 2320 UTC
ECMWF +24h
55.6 mm/h
81.2 mm/3h
observed
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28 july 2019
00-06UTC
Rome
(heavy rain and a Tornado at
00.30UTC - 1 victim)
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28 july 2019 Rome (heavy rain and a
Tornado 00.30UTC - 1 victim)
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28 july 2019 Rome (heavy rain and a
Tornado 00.30UTC - 1 victim)
COSMOIT
observed
61.9 mm/h
COSMOIT +30h
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28 july 2019 Rome (heavy rain and a
Tornado 00.30UTC - 1 victim)
COSMOIT
observed
61.9 mm/h
ECMWF +30h
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31 july 2019 Po valley (Supercell -
large hail)
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31 july 2019 Po valley 1230-1430UTC
(Supercell - large hail+downburst)
Right moving supercellwith cold ring
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31 july 2019 Po valley 1230-1430UTC
(Supercell - large hail+downburst)
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31 july 2019 Po valley 1230-1430UTC
(Supercell - large hail+downburst)
COSMOIT +18h
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31 july 2019 Po valley 1230-1430UTC
(Supercell - large hail+downburst)
COSMO D2 COSMO-1
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2 august 2019
Marche
(Comma - Supercell – heavy rain
and downburst)
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COSMOIT +19h
2 august 2019 Marche (Supercell –
heavy rain and downburst)
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observed
COSMOIT +19h
2 august 2019 Marche (Supercell –
heavy rain and downburst)
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7 august 2019 Genova 21-22 UTC
(excessive rainfall)
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7 august 2019 Genova 21-22 UTC
(excessive rainfall)
Genova
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7 august 2019 Genova 21-22 UTC (excessive rainfall)
Genova Bolzaneto: 80.6 mm/1h
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7 august 2019 Genova 21-22 UTC (excessive rainfall)
COSMOIT +12hECMWF +12h
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7 august 2019 Genova 21-22 UTC (excessive rainfall)
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8 august 2019 16-18 UTC
Udine
(Supercell – excessive rainfall and
downburst)
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8 august 2019 16-18 UTC
Udine (Supercell – excessive rainfall and downburst)
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8 august 2019 16-18 UTC
Udine (Supercell – excessive rainfall and downburst)
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Observed 12-18 UTC
ECMWF +18h95.2 mm/h
8 august 2019 16-18 UTC
Udine (Supercell – excessive rainfall and downburst)
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Observed 12-18 UTC
COSMOIT +17h95.2 mm/h
8 august 2019 16-18 UTC
Udine (Supercell – excessive rainfall and downburst)
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observed
COSMOIT +18h
95.2 mm/h
8 august 2019 16-18 UTC
Udine (Supercell – excessive rainfall and downburst)
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Observed 12-18UTC
95.2 mm/h
COSMO-D2 +17h
8 august 2019 16-18 UTC
Udine (Supercell – excessive rainfall and downburst)
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Observed 12-18UTC
95.2 mm/h
COSMO-D2 +18h
8 august 2019 16-18 UTC
Udine (Supercell – excessive rainfall and downburst)
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Thank you