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Kelvin Wong, CFTe
Chief Technical Strategist, Asia
Outlook On Global Markets & Strategies (Q4 2014)
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Key Takeaways (Q4 2014)
U.S. stock market remains resilient even though we are in the 5th
year of the bullish cycle since Mar 2009.
More elements to justify a further potential upside movement first
rather than 10% to 20% correction.
- Sectors leaders (Technology & Health Care) remains strong.
- Laggard sector (Financials) has started to show strength.
- VIX is still below key resistance.
Potential upside targets(S&P500 = 2140/2170)
(Nasdaq100 = 4400/4430)
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Key Takeaways (Q4 2014) Despite the recent Russia/Ukraine conflict & its potential negative spill-
over effects over Europe, the German DAX has held above its key support
at 8900.
DAX FIRE and Pharmaceutical/Healthcare sectors continue to outperform.
Japanese stock market should outperform U.S. reinforces by USD/JPY
strength (Yen weakness).
Further potential strength ahead for USD against majors which implies
further potential downside for Gold.
Hong Kong/China stock markets remain above key supports & may see
potential upside movement in Oct 2014 due to Shanghai-Hong Kong
Connect.
Multi-year uptrend since 2011 remains intact for Singapore stock market,
watch key support zone at 3260/3130.
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Nasdaq 100 / S&P 500
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Bullish breakout from 2 years of
consolidation since April 2012
Nasdaq 100 continues to
outperform against S&P 500!
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Technology (XLK) / S&P 500 (SPY)
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Technology sector continues to
outperform against S&P 500
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Healthcare (XLV) / S&P 500 (SPY)
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Healthcare sector continues to see
further strength
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Financials (XLF) / S&P 500 (SPY)
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Financials sector is playing
“catchup”
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VIX (The “Fear & Greed Index”)
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“High” complacency
but still below key
resistance on VIX
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Russell 2000
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• Small-cap U.S. domestic stocks
is not making new highs since
June 2014
• Symmetrical Triangle or Double Top?
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DAX Supersector Pharmaceutical/Healthcare
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Made a new 5-year high in Sep 2014
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Wisdom Tree Japan Hedged Equity Fund / S&P 500
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Shows further outperformance
potential against the S&P 500
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USD/JPY
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Direct relationship since 1987
Impending bullish breakout
from 14 years of downtrend
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U.S. Dollar Index (Futures)
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Impending bullish breakout from
“Symmetrical Triangle” consolidation
since 1998
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Gold (Futures)
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Bearish breakdown from long-term
trendline support in place since 2001
1923 (Sep 2011)
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Gold (Futures)
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Evolving within impending bearish
“Descending Triangle” consolidation