Outlook and challenges for agriculture in the ASEAN region
OECD Global forum on Agriculture 3 May 2017 Paris, France Koen Deconinck, Agricultural Policy Analyst, OECD
2
www.oecd.org/tad Trade and Agriculture Directorate
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Southeast Asia has made remarkable progress on food security
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Africa Central AsiaCentral America East Asia Latin America Oceania Southeast Asia South Asia West Asia
% Prevalence of Undernourishment, 1990-2016
3
www.oecd.org/tad Trade and Agriculture Directorate
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
High GDP growth in ASEAN countries is expected to continue
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Thailand Malaysia Philippines Indonesia Viet Nam … China EU15 OECD
2005-14 2015-24%
GDP growth rates, historical (2005-14) and projected (2015-24)
4
www.oecd.org/tad Trade and Agriculture Directorate
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
In the medium term, world prices of agricultural commodities are expected to remain below peaks of last decade
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Index (2012-14=100)
Cereals Dairy Meat Oilseeds
Projected real prices for agricultural commodity groups, 2000-24
5
www.oecd.org/tad Trade and Agriculture Directorate
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Southeast Asian agriculture has seen strong production growth
0
1
2
3
4
5
1961-69 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009
Net production Net per capita production%
Annual agricultural production growth rates, by decade, 1960-2009
6
www.oecd.org/tad Trade and Agriculture Directorate
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Agricultural production growth will outpace rest of world
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Beef andveal
Coarsegrains
Proteinmeal
Poultrymeat
Pigmeat Roots andtubers
Sugar Fish Rice Vegetableoil
% ASEAN World
Total percentage production growth (2015-24)
7
www.oecd.org/tad Trade and Agriculture Directorate
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Productivity is increasingly driving agricultural growth
0
1
2
3
4
5
1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-12
Input TFP Output%
Composition of agricultural output growth in Southeast Asia, by decade
8
www.oecd.org/tad Trade and Agriculture Directorate
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Recent agricultural productivity growth rates in SEA are among the highest in the world
0 1 2 3
Sub-Saharan Africa (exc. South Africa)
Former Soviet Union and transition economies
OECD
World
North America
Latin America
North Africa and West Asia
Southeast Asia
Asia (exc. West Asia)
%
Agricultural total factor productivity growth, 2001-12
9
www.oecd.org/tad Trade and Agriculture Directorate
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1961 1967 1973 1979 1985 1991 1997 2003 2009 2015
Cambodia Indonesia Viet Nam ASEAN average
t/ha
Rice yields have also been growing steadily
Tonnes per hectare, 1961-2015
10
www.oecd.org/tad Trade and Agriculture Directorate
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
ASEAN is a growing net exporter of food and increasingly regionally integrated in agri-food trade
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
USD Bn
Exports Imports Net
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
%
Intra-export share (RHS) Intra-import share (RHS)
ASEAN agri-food trade, 1996-2012 Share of intra-regional trade (%)
11
www.oecd.org/tad Trade and Agriculture Directorate
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
In the long term, climate change is expected to have negative effects on production for all crops
-30 -20 -10 0 10
Bananas
Beans
Coffee
Cassava
Cocoa
Maize
Palm Oil
Rice
Teas
Vegetables
-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10
Bananas
Beans
Coffee
Cassava
Cocoa
Maize
Palm Oil
Rice
Teas
Vegetables
Percentage change in production in 2050 compared with no climate change
(a) Rain-fed crops (b) Irrigation-fed crops
12
www.oecd.org/tad Trade and Agriculture Directorate
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
The negative impact of climate change will vary by country
Percentage change in rain-fed rice yields in 2050 compared with no climate change
Map included without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
13
www.oecd.org/tad Trade and Agriculture Directorate
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Climate change can have a large impact on prices by 2050 – this effect is compounded by domestic policies
0 20 40 60 80
Bananas
Beans
Cassava
Cocoa
Coffee
Maize
Palm Oil
Rice
Teas
Vegetables
0 20 40 60 80
Bananas
Beans
Cassava
Cocoa
Coffee
Maize
Palm Oil
Rice
Teas
Vegetables
Percentage change in prices in 2050 compared with no climate change
(a) World prices (b) ASEAN producer prices
14
www.oecd.org/tad Trade and Agriculture Directorate
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Summary: Outlook and Challenges
Southeast Asia’s agriculture is expected to continue its strong
growth in the medium term
In the long term, climate change will have a negative impact on production, unless action is taken on adaptation technologies
Productivity growth will be crucial, also given the pressure on land and other natural resources Improvements in the enabling environment Improvements in sustainable resource management
Contact us We look forward to hearing from you!
Access all of the information from the Trade & Agriculture Directorate at: www.oecd.org/tad
You can reach us via e-mail by sending your message to the following address: [email protected]
We invite you to connect with us on Twitter by following our accounts: @OECDtrade @OECDagriculture