ORACLE Opportunities and Risks for Agrosystems and forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France
CONTEXT, ISSUES and OBJECTIVES
There is a need to provide insights on i) the poten1al risks and opportuni1es for agriculture and forestry, and ii) the possible future pa:erns of land-‐uses. For that we need to account, simultaneously, for a) climate change and its expected effects on e.g. produc1vity, and b) the evolu1on of the socio-‐economic and policy environment. However, the la:er depending on the former, their links need to be accounted for.
Our objec1ves are many-‐fold: Ø Evaluate the impacts of various climate change scenarios on the func1oning of managed ecosystems (large-‐scale crops, forests, pasture);
Ø Calculate the implica1ons of those changes on land uses; Ø Calculate the implica1ons of changing policies, or launching adapta1on and /or mi1ga1on prac1ces on land uses;
Ø Evaluate how both climate change and policy/adapta1on/mi1ga1on measures combine to influence land uses;
Ø Evaluate whether changes in land uses are sustainable from an hydrological point of view in the Seine basin.
METHODS
We have developed the two-‐step methodology illustrated below:
Contact : nathalie.de-‐[email protected] ; Site web: h:ps://oracle.lsce.ipsl.fr/
STRENGTHS
To be:er address the impacts of climate change on large-‐scale crops, we combined sta1s1cal, mechanis1c and indicators’ approaches. More specifically we have: -‐ Developed agro-‐ecological indicators to iden1fy the main meteorological stress to be avoided by plants;
-‐ Ques1oned the poten1al of global vegeta1on models (here ORCHIDEE-‐IPSL and ISBA-‐CNRM) to produce useful indicators.
A flexible modelling approach (CliMul1CS) was developed to design crop systems that will be able to cope with future climate changes (Mo$es et al. in prep.): -‐ It assesses cropping system performances based on 12 criteria
(e.g. yield, water quality, soil quality, GHG emissions); -‐ It responds to climate change; -‐ It includes expert as well as scien1fic knowledge.
The limits between the U1lized Agricultural Area (SAU in french) and the area of managed forests may change in response to both climate change and policy/adapta1on/mi1ga1on measures (see Figure showing Methodology-‐2).
SAMPLE of the SCIENTIFIC PRODUCTION
• Leclère, D., P.-‐A. Jayet, N. de Noblet-‐Ducoudré, 2013, Ecological Economics, 87, P. 1-‐14
• Lobianco, A., Ph. Delacote, S. Caurla, 2015, Ecological Modelling, 309-‐310, p. 82-‐92
• Caubel, J., I. Garcia de Cortazar-‐Atauri, M. Launay, N. de Noblet-‐Ducoudré, F. Huard, A.-‐I. Graux, 2015, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 207, p. 94-‐106
PERSPECTIVES
• Map the French areas where a specific agroecosystem is either at risk or poten1ally cul1vable.
• Study the poten1al of U1lized Agricultural Area to shrink or expand, together with the forested area.
• Make our indicators available for Agricultural Chambers
Develop and Analyze VarieGes of Agro-‐Ecologic Indicators (characterize the funcGoning and the management of large-‐scale crops, e.g. wheat,
corn, sunflower, …) Calvet et al. 2012; Wilcox and Makowski 2014; Caubel et
al. 2015; Laania et al. subm.
Climate Change Scenarios at the scale of France [8km*8km]
SRES A1b, B1 and A2 (1 climate model) SRES A1b (13 climate models)
Policy, MiGgaGon, and AdaptaGon Scenarios (e.g. greenhouse gas taxes, intensity of Gmber
harvesGng)
Fixed UGlized Agriculture Area: AdaptaGon via 1) management (e.g. sowing dates, irrigaGon, choice of culGvars), 2) land
reallocaGon between various crops, crop versus pasture land
Leclère et al. 2013
Fixed Area of Managed Forests: AdaptaGon via choice of species and/or
management strategies Lobianco et al. 2015
Develop and Analyze the Changes in Forest DistribuGon and ProducGvity [per specie] Wernsdörfer et al. 2012; Bontemps et al. subm.
Metho
dology -‐ 1
INPUTS
Bio-Ecologic Models + Agro- Ecologic Indicators Economic Models
OUTPUTS
Metho
dology -‐ 2
Lungarska et al. in prep.
ClimaGc
an annual view of climate change, using agro-‐relevant indicators
Eco-‐ClimaGc
Sub-annual analysis of Climate for agricultural purposes
when / what meteorological stresses will crops meet in the future? Will producers meet the conditions for potential climatic
productivity?
Integrated
the climate is read by a generic model, and transformed into quantities that describe the
functioning of the ecosystem (natural or managed)
~17°C
~16°C
~19°C
The link between the mean annual temperature of France, and the dura1on of the longest heat wave
growing heat wave length
Yield from
specific mod
el: STICS (t/
ha)
Derived Yield from ORCHIDEE’s outputs
Sunflower
1970-‐2000 2020-‐2050 2070-‐2100
Feas
ibili
ty o
f rai
n-fe
d co
rn
Increased interannual variability
Decreased feasibility
Corn in Toulouse
