Download - Optimum Energy Future for Cape Town
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Optimum Energy Future for Cape
Town
Energy Research Centre
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Energy Growth into the Future
Energy consumption for ‘Business as Usual’ is expected to almost quadruple by 2050
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Renewable electricity supply
What do we do? Energy interventions and Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Electricity efficiency
Transport efficiency
Optimum Energy
Future
Business as
usual
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Optimum Energy Future interventions do not compromise energy service delivery.
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Total End User Expenditure for Scenarios
Optimum Energy Future results in similar overall energy expenditure (incl. massive transport infrastructure investments) than Business as Usual without compromising energy service delivery.
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2 Transport
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Existing Coal
BUSINESS AS USUAL ELECTRICITY SUPPLY MIX (IRP2010) 3 Renewables: Electricity supply mix
New Coal
Wind
Dir
ty
Cle
an
Nuclear
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Implementation options…. • Large scale Power Purchase Agreements
• Embedded options (PV, Wind…)
• Landfill gas
• Sewage methane
• Small hydro
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kW
h(d
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Year
Solar PV (grid-tied) cost comparison
Solar PV cash
Solar PV financed
Normal elec
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National Climate Change Response White Paper
• The key areas of change:
• Renewable energy:
• Large scale – national (REBID)
• Small scale – cities
• Energy Efficiency
• Eskom ZAR5.4bn – accessible by large players
• Link with industrial & commercial customers - cities
• Residential = cities
• Transport
• Powers budgets being devolved to cities
• Densification & urban form
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12
National GHG objectives
Peak
Decline
Plateau
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Cities are a very energy intensive
part of the national profile Top 15 cities
~45% of total national consumption
~ 3% of land area (i.e. very energy
intensive)
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National Integrated Resource Plan demand forecast
Big metros
Mining
Industry
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Transport , 50%
Residential , 18%
Commercial, 17%
Industrial, 14%
Local Government , 1%
Energy Consumption per sector in Cape Town 2007
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Transport , 27%
Residential , 29%
Commercial, 28%
Industrial, 15%
Local Government , 1%
Carbon Emissions per sector in Cape Town, 2007
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Greenhouse Gas Emissions into the Future
Greenhouse gas emissions associated with the ‘Business as Usual’ energy growth is untenable given the national and international pressures to reduce carbon emissions.
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KEY ISSUE : PROCEEDING ALONG A BUSINESS AS USUAL SCENARIO HAS SIGNIFICANT RISKS
Energy Demand will
quadruple by 2050 if
current energy demand
growth continues
• Higher energy expenditure for the city’s occupants
• Vulnerability to power price hikes
• Inefficient economy
• Fewer jobs taken advantage of in the energy sector
• A vulnerability to a carbon constrained future
• Susceptible to oil price rises (‘End of cheap oil’)
• Loss of competitive advantage as a green city
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Optimum Energy Future results in lower energy expenditure if transport infrastructure investments are excluded (a portion of which would come from national govt).
Total End User Expenditure for Scenarios (excl transport costs)
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Carbon Tax Implications for different Scenarios (carbon tax of R100 at 4% escalation)
Business As Usual
Business As Usual Carbon Tax
Optimum Energy Future
Optimum Energy Future Carbon Tax
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Carbon Tax Implications for different Scenarios
Business As Usual
Business As Usual Carbon Tax
Optimum Energy Future
Optimum Energy Future Carbon Tax
Increase in costs for Optimum Energy Future (R2.5bn)
Increase in costs for Business as Usual (R5bn)
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1 EFFICIENCY: ALMOST ALL ELECTRICITY EFFICIENCY INTERVENTIONS
ARE FINANCIALLY SENSIBLE AND PAY THEMSELVES BACK, LEADING TO A MORE EFFICIENT ECONOMY
R 0
R 200,000,000
R 400,000,000
R 600,000,000
R 800,000,000
R 1,000,000,000
R 1,200,000,000
R 1,400,000,000
LI lighting LI fridge HI lighting HI fridge HI water COM HVAC COM water COM lighting
LG lighting LG HVAC LG street lights
LG traffic signals
Cumulative net saving from electricity efficiency interventions up to 2025
The bars represent cumulative net savings (i.e. considering capital costs and electricity savings) of electricity efficiency interventions.
Low-inc residential
Commercial
Govt
Mid-hi inc residential
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Solar Thermal
Existing Coal
New Coal
Wind
OPTIMUM ENERGY FUTURE ELEC SUPPLY MIX
Dir
ty
Cle
an
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Solar Thermal
Existing Coal
New Coal
Wind
Landfill gas
OPTIMUM ENERGY FUTURE ELEC SUPPLY MIX
Dir
ty
Cle
an
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Generation mixes and costs for different scenarios in 2030
R/kWh BAU % mix OEF % mix
Munic waste 0.44 0% 3%
Solar thermal 1.5 1% 3%
Wind 1 6% 20%
New nuclear 0.69 17% 6%
New fossil base 0.42 43% 38%
New mid & peak (gas turbine) 3.4 5% 5%
Hydro 0.1 4% 4%
Existing mid & peak (gas turbine) 3.4 0% 0%
Existing base 0.2 22% 22%
Existing nuclear 0.69 2% 0%
Average generation costs (Rand/kWh) 0.60 0.67
KEY ISSUE: THE COST OF AN ELECTRICITY SUPPLY MIX THAT INCLUDES A STRONG COMPONENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
THAN BAU
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Conclusion…
• Cities are critical to changing a country carbon profile
• We know what to do (EE, RE, regulations, transport, etc ….)
• Cities often more proactive than national government
• Capacity and resources often a constraint
WAY FORWARD…
• Direct focus and support for cities = NB
• Unification of cities to lead where countries are failing?
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A HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY FUTURE RESULTS IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN JOBS CREATED
Job creation
(long-term)` Business as Usual
Optimum Energy
Future
Municipal Waste 0 123,231
Solar Thermal Elec 0 23,078
Wind 280,397 844,967
New Nuclear 320 1,667
New Fossil Base 0 0
New mid and peak 4,858 3,873
Existing Hydro 4,891 4,451
Existing mid and peak 454 429
Existing Base 0 0
Existing Nuclear 499 286
Total jobs from
generation 291,418 1,001,981
SWHs 799,828
Energy Efficiency 11,329
TOTAL ALL 291,418 1,813,138
SOLAR WATER HEATERS: A solar water heater mass rollout programme to reach 50% of the City’s houses (approx 0.5 million systems) would create 10,200 job-years over the next 10 years and be economically beneficial to the citizens and the economy.
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• Solar – Concentration
– Photovoltaic
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• Solar – Thermal
– Photovoltaic
– Cooking
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• Wind
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• Biomass
• Waste
– Burning
– Landfill gas
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• Small-scale
hydro
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• Ocean energy:
– Wave
– Tidal
– OTEC
– Ocean currents
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Electricity demand forecast
Big metros
Mining
Industry
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Some key assumptions…. • Household growth : 1.7% (~15 000 /yr)
• Informal household growth: 13% from 2007, 8% after 2010
• Electricity growth: 2.9% (corresponds to 3.4% GDP growth)
• Costing – Discount rate : 5% (real)
– Electricity tariff real increases linked to ‘new build’ program
– Liquid fuel costs linked to inflation (except in ‘Peak Oil’ Scenario)
• Transport : Private Vehicle Growth : 3.4%
• Transport : Public Transport Growth : 2.9%
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Business As Usual and Optimum Energy Future Scenario costs with and without carbon tax implications
Business As Usual
Business As Usual Carbon Tax
Optimum Energy Future
Optimum Energy Future Carbon Tax
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ELECTRICITY TARIFF DESIGN WILL NEED TO CHANGE IN FUTURE TO PROMOTE ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND AT THE SAME TIME TO
PRESERVE THE CITY’S REVENUE BASE
• Electricity tariffs currently promote more sales, not efficiency
• City revenue dependent on electricity sales
• Different tariff setting approaches can protect revenue and even generate funds for efficiency implementation.
-1,000
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-200
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
R m
illio
ns
Annual financial surplus/shortfall per service
Water
Electricity
Rates & general
Solid waste
Sanitation
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2 TRANSPORT: Transport resource intensity
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Urban sprawl…
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R$
/pas
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City density (pers/ha)
Public transport costs and density (Brazil) City of 1 million
More dense Less dense
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The need to Densify the City
Densification of the city is expected to result
in significant reductions in expenditure to
service the population with adequate public
transport. (and also other service
infrastructure – storm water, water,
electricity)
ZAR 10 billion
saved
ZAR 40 billion
saved
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Densification: Recurrent costs
55,685
106,006 97,414
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2010 2020 - 'Urban sprawl' 2020 - 'Compact city'
Infrastructure
Transport
Housing
Source: PDG
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Peak oil implications
‘Peak Oil’ can result in significantly increased overall energy system costs to the city, which would be devastating to the economy.
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The Optimum Energy Future interventions
Sector Interventions
Residential Efficient lighting
Efficient water heating (solar water heaters or heat pumps)
Commercial Efficient Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC)
Efficient water heating
Efficient lighting
Industrial Efficient motors
Efficient HVAC
Efficient lighting
Local Government Buildings: efficient lighting
Buildings: efficient HVAC
Efficient street lighting
LED traffic lights
Fleet fuel efficiency
Freight Transport Freight from road to rail
Passenger Transport Hybrid and electric private vehicles
Public transport vehicle efficiency
Modal shift from private to public transport
Electricity Supply Mix Renewable energy in mix
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R 0 R 20,000,000 R 40,000,000 R 60,000,000 R 80,000,000
0
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100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
LI lightingLI fridgeMI lighting
MI fridge
MI water
HI lighting
HI fridge
HI water
VH lightingVH fridge
VH water
COM HVAC
COM water
COM lighting
IND motors
IND HVACIND lighting
LG lightingLG HVAC
LG street lights
LG traffic signals
All Sectors
2015
Saving (R)
Ca
rbo
n (
T)
Commercial buildings
– lighting, HVAC
Residential water
heating
Residential lighting
Residential fridges
Industrial motors
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City service delivery planning and budgeting will need to consider the fact that the informal, largely unelectrified household sector is currently growing fast, and will
place increasing demands on the City’s ability to provide services and will contribute little to revenue.
Low income electrified
Med income (elec)
Hi income (elec)
Household growth projectionsShowing the potential growth in the
informal sector if current trends continue
Low income unelectrified(informal)
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-
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Revenue Cost Revenue Cost Revenue Cost
Low income High income Non-residential
Rm
illio
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Surplus
Deficit
Equitable share
User charges
Cost
-1,000
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-200
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
R m
illio
ns
Annual financial surplus/shortfall per service
Water
Electricity
Rates & general
Sanitation
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KEY ISSUES THAT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN FUTURE PLANNING EXERCISES
• Transport modal shift - how exactly to achieve
• Peak Oil - huge financial impacts on transport
• Densification of the city – how?
• The fast growing informal residential sector will place increasing demands on City’s ability to provide services
• Data: – Population (esp. informal dwellings)
– Electricity (Eskom component unknown)
– Liq fuels (disaggregation unclear)
– Detailed end-user characteristics
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Rest of the slides may be useful for particular presentations but not
part of core. Can pick and choose as necessary. Most don’t have
associated notes.
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Objectives
• Present the Optimum Energy Future
• Comments on strategic direction soundness
• Comments on assumptions
• Strengths and weaknesses
• Data gaps, and what to do about them
• Identify areas of further work
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Energy Security
Low Carbon
Economic Development
Resilient City
Poverty Alleviation
Energy Efficiency
Renewable Energy
Public Transport
Compact City
Local Energy Business Development
Job Creation
Lower Risk
Localisation
Improved Health/Quality of Life
Better Access to Urban Goods
Goal Criteria 1 Criteria 2
ECAP Energy Vision and Prioritisation Criteria
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National LTMS: Two Scenarios frame the choice for South Africa
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CO
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qu
iva
len
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Required by Science
Growth without Constraints
THE GAP
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Low Income Electrified
20%
Low Income Non
electrified 4%
Medium Income
33%
High Income 35%
VH income 8%
Breakdown of Energy Consumption in Residential Sector according to income groups, 2007
Households
Low Income
Electrified 40%
Low Income
Non electrified
6%
Medium Income
31%
High Income
19%
VH income 4%
Breakdown of Households in Residential Sector per income group, 2007
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R 0 R 100,000,000 R 200,000,000 R 300,000,000 R 400,000,000 R 500,000,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
LI lightingLI fridge
MI lightingMI fridge
MI water
HI lighting
HI fridge
HI water
VH lightingVH fridge
VH water
COM HVAC
COM water
COM lighting
IND motors
IND HVACIND lighting
LG lightingLG HVAC
LG street lights
LG traffic signals
All Sectors
2025
Saving (R)
Ca
rbo
n (
T)
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R 0 R 20,000,000 R 40,000,000 R 60,000,000 R 80,000,000
0
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60,000
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160,000
180,000
200,000
LI lightingLI fridge
MI lighting
MI fridge
MI water
HI lighting
HI fridge
HI water
VH lighting
VH fridge
VH water
Domestic Sector
2015
Saving (R)
Ca
rbo
n (
T)
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R 0 R 5,000,000 R 10,000,000 R 15,000,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
LG lightingLG HVAC
LG street lights
LG traffic signals
Local Government
2015
Saving (R)
Ca
rbo
n (
T)
Govt streetlights
Govt traffic signals
Govt buildings
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-R 7,000,000,000 -R 6,000,000,000 -R 5,000,000,000 -R 4,000,000,000 -R 3,000,000,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000PAS Transport
Transport
2015
Saving (R)
Ca
rbo
n (
T)
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-R 20,000,000,000 -R 15,000,000,000 -R 10,000,000,000 -R 5,000,000,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000PAS Transport
Transport
2025
Saving (R)
Ca
rbo
n (
T)
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R 0 R 100,000,000 R 200,000,000 R 300,000,000 R 400,000,000 R 500,000,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
LI lightingLI fridge
MI lighting
MI fridge
MI water
HI lighting
HI fridge
HI water
VH lightingVH fridge
VH water
Domestic Sector
2025
Saving (R)
Ca
rbo
n (
T)
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R 0 R 20,000,000 R 40,000,000 R 60,000,000 R 80,000,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
COM HVAC
COM water
COM lighting
Commercial
2015
Saving (R)
Ca
rbo
n (
T)
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R 0 R 100,000,000 R 200,000,000 R 300,000,000 R 400,000,000 R 500,000,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
COM HVAC
COM water
COM lighting
Commercial
2025
Saving (R)
Ca
rbo
n (
T)
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R 200,000 R 400,000 R 600,000 R 800,000 R 1,000,000 R 1,200,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
IND motors
IND HVACIND lighting
Industry
2015
Saving (R)
Ca
rbo
n (
T)
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R 2,000,000 R 4,000,000 R 6,000,000 R 8,000,000 R 10,000,000 R 12,000,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000IND motors
IND HVACIND lighting
Industry
2025
Saving (R)
Ca
rbo
n (
T)
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R 0 R 20,000,000 R 40,000,000 R 60,000,000 R 80,000,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
LG lightingLG HVAC
LG street lights
LG traffic signals
Local Government
2025
Saving (R)
Ca
rbo
n (
T)
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2025 (GWh)
OEF high income cooking
OEF industrial HVAC
OEF government buildings
OEF industrial lighting
OEF low income ceilings
OEF government traffic lights
OEF industrial machine drives
OEF commercial water heating
OEF government street lights
OEF commercial HVAC
OEF residential fridges
OEF commercial lighting
OEF residential lighting
OEF residential water heating
OEF industry fuel (excl. elec) 15% efficiency
Ranking of efficiency interventions by
impact
Industry eff
Residential water heat
Res lighting
Comm light
Res fridges
Comm HVAC Streetlights
![Page 67: Optimum Energy Future for Cape Town](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022041802/62541a5e2d9ba76e87587aa2/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
5 KEY ACTIONS FOR IMMEDIATE ATTENTION
1. Densify the city, set urban edge
2. Public transport plan and investment plan
3. Mass Solar Water Heater implementation
4. Commercial building efficiency (new, retrofit)
5. Develop tariffs to promote efficiency
![Page 68: Optimum Energy Future for Cape Town](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022041802/62541a5e2d9ba76e87587aa2/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
Densification
![Page 69: Optimum Energy Future for Cape Town](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022041802/62541a5e2d9ba76e87587aa2/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
Percentage of Cape Town households spending >20%
of income on public transport
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0-R1000 R1001-R3000 R3001-R6000 R6001 +
Income quartiles
Perc
en
tag
e o
f h
ou
seh
old
s
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Figure 1, Car use per capita and urban density in global cities, 1990.
(Source: Kenworthy and Laube, 1999).
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Figure 3: Transport related energy consumption and urban densities
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
25 50 75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
Source: following Newman and Kenworthy, 1999, p110
US American cities
Australian cities
Central European cities
Energy Consumption in MJ per capita
Population density per ha
Moscow Hong Kong
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Energy Consumption for Different Scenarios
Optimum Energy Future energy efficiency measures result in lower energy demand than Business as Usual without compromising energy service delivery.
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BIG ISSUES THAT STILL NEED FURTHER ATTENTION
• Action Plan clear, but
• Enablers:
– City tariff system to promote energy efficiency
– Financing for efficient public transport system
– Densification of the city - enable public transport
– IRP which allows adequate renewable energy
• Need further research – Reducing electricity distribution infrastructure costs via
energy efficiency
– Peak Oil - huge financial impacts on transport • Need public transport
– The fast growing informal residential sector will place increasing demands on City’s ability to provide services
![Page 76: Optimum Energy Future for Cape Town](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022041802/62541a5e2d9ba76e87587aa2/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
Way Forward
• Engage with key players, including government departments and other stakeholders
• Develop business plans for key projects identified
• Develop City Economic Development Strategy to support implementation of the Optimum Energy Future
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2007 2017 2027 2037 2047
Bill
ion
So
uth
Afr
ican
Ran
ds
Carbon Tax Implications represented by cost difference between Scenarios with and without carbon tax costs
(carbon tax of R100 at 4% escalation)
Business As Usual
Business As Usual Carbon Tax
Optimum Energy Future
Optimum Energy Future Carbon Tax
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NATIONAL IRP AND CITIES
KEY ISSUE NO 8: THE CITY MAY NEED TO GENERATE MUCH OF THEIR OWN ELECTRICITY TO REDUCE FUTURE CARBON-
LINKED RISKS
• Currently national generation mix is carbon-intensive
• City may need to proactively undertake own low-carbon generation
• Depends on whether national planning is stone-age or progressive
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KEY ISSUE 7: INFRASTRUCTURE COSTS LINKED TO PUBLIC TRANSPORT MODAL SHIFT ARE HIGH. THE CITY MAY STRUGGLE TO FIND THIS MONEY, YET SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED
PUBLIC TRANSPORT FACILITIES ARE ESSENTIAL TO A SUSTAINABLE CITY.
The cost of infrastructure for public transport results in the Optimum Energy Future being significantly more expensive than the Business as Usual scenario.
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CAPE TOWN OPTIMUM ENERGY FUTURE
The key results modelled for the Cape Town Optimum Energy Future are modelled to highlight the impact of this energy direction versus the business as usual trajectory
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Greenhouse Gas Emissions for different scenarios (2025)
Optimum Energy Future carbon emissions are in keeping with national and international obligations.
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2025 (GWh)
OEF high income cooking
OEF industrial HVAC
OEF government buildings
OEF industrial lighting
OEF low income ceilings
OEF government traffic lights
OEF industrial machine drives
OEF commercial water heating
OEF government street lights
OEF commercial HVAC
OEF residential fridges
OEF commercial lighting
OEF residential lighting
OEF residential water heating
OEF industry fuel (excl. elec) 15% efficiency
Ranking of efficiency interventions by
impact
Industry eff
Residential water heat
Res lighting
Comm light
Res fridges
Comm HVAC Streetlights
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047
Bill
ion
So
uth
Afr
ican
Ran
ds
Year
TOTAL COSTS: CARBON TAX IMPLICATIONS Business As Usual and Optimum Energy Future Costs with and without
Carbon Tax
Business as Usual
Optimum Energy Future
Business as Usual (Carbon Tax)
Optimum Energy Future (Carbon Tax)
Optimum Energy Future with Tax
BAU with Tax
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Objectives of Energy Scenarios for Cape Town
To clarify an optimum way forward for the energy sector in Cape Town such that:
– City’s economy is robust in a carbon constrained future
– energy costs for the city into the future are optimised
– energy service provision is not compromised
– employment creation is maximised
– opportunities for the development of energy related industries is maximised
– City’s carbon profile is in line with national and international obligations
![Page 86: Optimum Energy Future for Cape Town](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022041802/62541a5e2d9ba76e87587aa2/html5/thumbnails/86.jpg)
Energy Efficiency Interventions –
• Commercial Sector
– Efficient HVAC
– Efficient Water Heating
– Efficient Lighting
• Residential Sector
– Efficient Lighting
– Efficient Water Heating
– Space Heating Efficiencies
• Local Government
– Efficient street and traffic lights
– Building efficiencies
– Transport efficiency
• Industrial Sector
– Efficient Lighting
– Efficient Motors
– Fuel Switching
• Transport
– Fuel Switching (liquid to electricity)
– Modal Shifts
– Travel Demand Management
![Page 87: Optimum Energy Future for Cape Town](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022041802/62541a5e2d9ba76e87587aa2/html5/thumbnails/87.jpg)
Energy Supply Interventions
• Increase in renewable energy uptake
– (wind, solar)
• New nuclear energy (National LTMS)
• New coal generation
• Waste to Energy – landfill gas generation
• Carbon tax implications
![Page 89: Optimum Energy Future for Cape Town](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022041802/62541a5e2d9ba76e87587aa2/html5/thumbnails/89.jpg)
Generation Cost of Electricity Supply options
![Page 90: Optimum Energy Future for Cape Town](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022041802/62541a5e2d9ba76e87587aa2/html5/thumbnails/90.jpg)
IMPACT OF EFFICIENCY ON TOTAL DEMAND
Elec efficiency
Transport eff
(modal shift etc)
![Page 91: Optimum Energy Future for Cape Town](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022041802/62541a5e2d9ba76e87587aa2/html5/thumbnails/91.jpg)
KEY ISSUE 4: NUCLEAR IS PART OF THE NATIONAL LTMS MIX BUT NEEDS TO BE APPROACHED WITH CAUTION – CONSTRUCTION DELAYS, LONG LEAD-IN TIMES AND LARGE COST OVERRUNS ARE VERY COMMON FOR NUCLEAR PROJECTS. THERE IS ALSO A LOT OF PUBLIC CONTENTION
AROUND NUCLEAR ENERGY
Existing Coal New Coal
New Nuclear
Wind
Solar Thermal
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Climate Change Think Tank September 2009 – December 2010
• DANIDA Funded Climate Change Research Programme
• The overall focus is to better understand and prepare for climate change, including both mitigation and adaptation aspects. Various research projects are to be undertaken within this framework
• The Energy Scenarios for Cape Town Project is one of the Mitigation Projects
• BHC funding taking the work forward
![Page 93: Optimum Energy Future for Cape Town](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022041802/62541a5e2d9ba76e87587aa2/html5/thumbnails/93.jpg)
Energy Scenarios for Cape Town Project
• … is based on a similar approach used in the National LTMS project
• … assists in identifying a secure energy future for Cape Town and defines key actions to be embarked upon
• … will support Phase 2 of the City’s Energy and Climate Action Plan.
![Page 94: Optimum Energy Future for Cape Town](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022041802/62541a5e2d9ba76e87587aa2/html5/thumbnails/94.jpg)
Key Assumptions used in the Model
• Base Year for Data : 2007
• Scenarios modelled from 2007 - 2050
• Average electricity tariffs and liquid fuel costs for 2007 used
• Growth Rates – 2.9% energy growth rate linked to GGP (IRP)
– 3.4% growth rate used for passenger transport (historic trend)
– 4.4% growth rate used for new commercial build (SARS)
• Costing – 5% real discount rate used throughout the model
– Capital and O&M costs annualised
![Page 95: Optimum Energy Future for Cape Town](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022041802/62541a5e2d9ba76e87587aa2/html5/thumbnails/95.jpg)
Data Collection and Analysis • Five Sectors Analysed
– Residential
– Commercial (including other government sectors)
– Industrial
– Local Government
– Transport (Freight and Passenger)
• Information sourced on all energy used per sector
• Disaggregation within sectors as far as data allows (sometimes clear limitations)
• Modelled future scenarios up to 2050, including energy, carbon and cost implications
• Analysed different energy efficiency interventions as well as electricity supply mixes
![Page 96: Optimum Energy Future for Cape Town](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022041802/62541a5e2d9ba76e87587aa2/html5/thumbnails/96.jpg)
Way Forward (2)
Further investigation into…
• City tariff system to promote energy efficiency
• Financing for efficient public transport system
• Analysis of impact of high growth in the informal sector on service delivery and energy security
• Reducing electricity distribution infrastructure costs via energy efficiency
![Page 97: Optimum Energy Future for Cape Town](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022041802/62541a5e2d9ba76e87587aa2/html5/thumbnails/97.jpg)
The Optimum Energy Future Sector Interventions
Residential Efficient lighting
Efficient water heating (solar water heaters or heat pumps)
Commercial Efficient Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC)
Efficient water heating
Efficient lighting
Industrial Efficient motors
Efficient HVAC
Efficient lighting
Local Government Buildings: efficient lighting
Buildings: efficient HVAC
Efficient street lighting
LED traffic lights
Fleet fuel efficiency
Freight Transport Freight from road to rail
Passenger Transport Hybrid and electric private vehicles
Public transport vehicle efficiency
Modal shift from private to public transport
Electricity Supply Mix Renewable energy in mix
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2025 SLIDES
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Cost Ex transport
![Page 110: Optimum Energy Future for Cape Town](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022041802/62541a5e2d9ba76e87587aa2/html5/thumbnails/110.jpg)
Cost Ex electricity
![Page 111: Optimum Energy Future for Cape Town](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022041802/62541a5e2d9ba76e87587aa2/html5/thumbnails/111.jpg)
Ex transport infrastructure
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2050 SLIDES
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Scope of the Energy Scenarios for Cape Town Project
• Developed by Sustainable Energy Africa and Energy Research Centre, supported by the CCT Environmental Resource Management Department and the City Energy Data Management Group
• An extensive data collection exercise was undertaken for the base year 2007 – Built on previous work in State of Energy Report and the Cape Town
Energy Futures Report
– A detailed energy picture for Cape Town for 2007 including energy used per sector and per fuel type
• The model is able to illustrate the implications of doing nothing (Business-As-Usual) as well as energy, carbon and cost implications of different scenarios
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IMPACT OF EFFICIENCY ON COMMERCIAL DEMAND
HVAC
Lighting
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IMPACT OF EFFICIENCY ON GOVT DEMAND
Street lights
Fleet efficiency