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Operations Research in the Department of Defense
Jason DalySenior Operations Analyst for Marine Corps
Operational Test and Evaluation Activity (MCOTEA)
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Outline
Background on Operations Research (OR) How it applies to DoD and other government agencies How it applies to DoD and other government agencies Example of my work
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What’s OR?What s OR? Operations research is the application of scientific
and mathematical methods for the analysis and study and mathematical methods for the analysis and study of problems involving complex systems Scientific Mathematical Involves modeling/simulation Applies to real-world operations
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OR Beginnings OR Beginnings
WWII and the British and American Militaries as they d l h d ff h l dealt with new and effective technologies
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Classic search problemClassic search problem How do you find a submarine you can’t see?
Probability of Detection
70%
80%
90%
100%
on
Go from Random to “Ideal” or better
40%
50%
60%
70%
abili
ty o
f de
tect
io
Random search
Ideal search
0%
10%
20%
30%
Prob
a
0%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200%
% of area searched
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Structured tactical searchesStructured tactical searches
Variables:AltitudeAltitudeSpeedDetection Aids (Binoculars, Radar, etc.)
Dispersion of likely submarine
paths
Initial Alert Position pathsSearch
pattern
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What OR is nowWhat OR is now Computing and information technologies
Decision analysis
Environment, energy, and natural resources
Financial engineering
Manufacturing service sciences and supply chain management Manufacturing, service sciences, and supply chain management
Policy modeling and public sector work
Revenue management
Simulation
Stochastic models
Transportation Transportation
Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)
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What OR is nowWhat OR is now Computing and information technologies Decision analysis Environment, energy, and natural resources
Financial engineering
Manufacturing service sciences and supply chain management Manufacturing, service sciences, and supply chain management
Policy modeling and public sector work
Revenue management
Simulation Stochastic models Transportation
Institute for Operations Research and the
Transportation
Management Sciences (INFORMS)
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More modern question…sortie generationMore modern question…sortie generation How many aircraft can you launch off an aircraft carrier? How long can you keep the pace? How long can you keep the pace?
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Then what?Then what?
Once you understand all the small tactical pieces of operations you can move onto the bigger strategic operations, you can move onto the bigger strategic picture…
How do you coordinate a major combat operation?
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Who needs OR?Who needs OR?
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What kind of background do you need?What kind of background do you need?
Analytical and technical!
Programming and modeling skills are useful
B S ill b M d Ph D B.S. will start you out, but Masters and Ph.D. will get you further, faster
Almost always requires a background check
L k f h Look for summer internships
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My Background…Physics UndergradMy Background…Physics Undergrad
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My Background…Physics Ph.D.My Background…Physics Ph.D.13C 14N 17O 18F Nova Cygni
1992
13N 15OI 17FII III
(p,)
12C 15N 16O 18O 19F
IV(p )
Beta decay
(p,)
IV
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My Background…OR AnalystMy Background…OR Analyst 2003-2009, Research Analyst at the Center for Naval
Analyses (CNA)Analyses (CNA) Currently Senior Operations Analyst for the Marine Corps
Operational Test and Evaluation Activity (MCOTEA)
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Small Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)Small Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)
Problem: What is the utility of a small ship-l h d UAV d d l d f launched UAV during deployed operations of an Expeditionary Strike Group (ESG)?
Real Problem: We found a really cool toy. Where can we use it, and how many should we buy?
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Use the scientific methodUse the scientific method Characterizations/Question* Hypothesis development Hypothesis development Predictions from the hypothesis Experiments Experiments Evaluation and conclusions
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What’s a Unmanned Aerial Vehicle?What s a Unmanned Aerial Vehicle?
It’s an airplane with no pilot. It’s mostly autonomous d ld “ t t ll d” It ll i and seldom “remote controlled.” It generally carries
Electro-optical and IR cameras, radars, and other sensors.
Big ones, like Global Hawk Tiny ones, like Raven
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QuestionsQuestionsWhat are the current capabilities of the ESG?What are the capabilities of the small UAV?What are the capabilities of the small UAV?What type of operations are you planning?
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Smallish, but very capableSmallish, but very capable
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Build a hypothesis, make predictionsBuild a hypothesis, make predictions
UAV support of the Recognized Maritime UAV support of the Recognized Maritime Picture (RMP)
UAV support to Maritime Security UAV support to Maritime Security Operations
UAV support of Maritime Operations UAV support of Maritime Operations Ashore
Used modeling to predict which missions would be viablewould be viable.
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Send it to real world operationsSend it to real world operations
Did a lot of testing over a lot of ocean and land 6 Months deployed 1000s of hours of operations Lots of data points
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Evaluation and conclusions?Evaluation and conclusions?
I can’t tell you.
But, this UAV is still not an official Navy Program of Record
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Questions?
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