Pres
enta
tion
of D
r. Jo
ram
Hop
enfe
ld
to th
e AS
LB in
Res
pons
e to
Dr.
Ho
row
itz R
egar
ding
CHE
CWO
RKS
In
dian
Poi
nt L
icen
se R
enew
al P
roce
edin
g
Adju
dica
tory
Hea
ring
Oct
ober
15,
201
2
Uni
ted
Stat
es N
ucle
ar R
egul
ator
y C
omm
issi
on O
ffici
al H
earin
g Ex
hibi
t
In th
e M
atte
r of:
Ent
ergy
Nuc
lear
Ope
ratio
ns, I
nc.
(Indi
an P
oint
Nuc
lear
Gen
erat
ing
Uni
ts 2
and
3)
ASL
BP
#:07
-858
-03-
LR-B
D01
D
ocke
t #:0
5000
247
| 050
0028
6 Ex
hibi
t #:
Iden
tifie
d:
Adm
itted
: W
ithdr
awn:
R
ejec
ted:
St
ricke
n:
Oth
er: B
RD
0000
02-0
0-B
D01
10/1
5/20
12
I FU
NDU
MEN
TALL
Y DI
SAGR
EE W
ITH
DR. H
ORO
WIT
Z RE
GARD
ING
HOW
THE
CH
ECW
ORK
S PR
OGR
AM W
AS D
ESIG
NED
AN
D HO
W IT
WO
RKS
MAI
N P
OIN
TS O
F DI
SAG
REEM
ENT
Subj
ect
CLA
IMED
BY
ENTE
RGY
Disa
gree
/Agr
ee
NO
TES
Back
grou
nd
Nee
d fo
r sin
gle
phas
e in
spec
tion
Disa
gree
N
ot th
e m
ain
need
Mod
el’s
tech
nica
l ba
sis
All k
now
n da
ta
Di
sagr
ee
Sele
ctiv
e da
ta w
as u
sed
Mat
hem
atic
al
Anal
ogue
In
puts
repr
esen
t kn
own
quan
titie
s,
(mas
s tra
nsfe
r rat
es
Cr, g
eom
etry
)
Disa
gree
Co
mpo
nent
Cr.
Cont
ent
is un
know
n. I
ncor
rect
re
latio
n be
twee
n m
etal
lo
ss a
nd m
ass t
rans
fer
coef
ficie
nt
Desig
ned
to
hand
le c
hang
es in
Pl
ant C
ondi
tions
Can
hand
le c
hang
es
in fl
ow
Disa
gree
N
o co
rrel
atio
n be
fore
an
d af
ter f
low
cha
nges
Mod
el p
redi
ctio
ns
Valid
ated
and
Ref
ined
Di
sagr
ee
40-6
0% o
f the
tim
e
pred
ictio
ns a
re n
ot
cons
erva
tive
BACK
GRO
UN
D •
CHEC
WO
RKS
was
intr
oduc
ed b
y EP
RI 7
mon
ths a
fter
the
Surr
y ac
cide
nt.
To m
eet s
ched
ule,
EPR
I dev
elop
ed it
s ow
n de
finiti
on o
f FAC
: i.
EPRI
’s De
finiti
on:
FAC
= co
rros
ion
(con
trol
led
by d
iffus
ion
mas
s tr
ansf
er)
ii.Co
mm
on d
efin
ition
: Ero
sion/
Cor
rosio
n =
Corr
osio
n +
Eros
ion
+ Sy
nerg
y
Not
e: C
orro
sion
is re
lativ
ely
easy
to p
redi
ct; c
orro
sion
+ sy
nerg
y is
ve
ry d
iffic
ult t
o pr
edic
t
•To
supp
ort i
ts FA
C de
finiti
on, E
PRI d
id th
e fo
llow
ing:
i.
Igno
red
scho
larly
pap
ers o
fferin
g di
ffere
nt th
eorie
s ii.
Did
not p
rovi
de a
ny te
chni
cal b
asis
iii
.U
sed
dat
a se
lect
ivel
y, re
gard
less
its a
pplic
abili
ty
iv.
Misr
epre
sent
ed th
e va
lidity
of m
odel
pre
dict
ions
CHEC
WO
RKS
unde
rlyin
g as
sum
ptio
ns a
re w
rong
•
CHEC
WO
RKS
Assu
mpt
ion
#1: N
on-c
onse
rvat
ive
pred
ictio
ns, 5
0% o
f the
tim
e, a
re a
ccep
tabl
e –
Not
acc
epta
ble:
“m
odel
mus
t be
reca
libra
ted”
whe
n no
n co
nser
vativ
e (N
URE
G-1
801,
Rev
. 2)
•
CHEC
WO
RKS
Assu
mpt
ion
#2: C
ompo
nent
Chr
omiu
m c
onte
nt is
kno
wn
–
a fa
ctor
of s
ix in
Chr
omiu
m u
ncer
tain
ty le
ads t
o a
fact
or o
f 10
in FA
C un
cert
aint
y
•CH
ECW
ORK
S As
sum
ptio
n #3
: Wal
l thi
nnin
g by
FAC
is c
ontr
olle
d so
lely
by
chem
ical
dis
solu
tion
–
Exist
ing
theo
retic
al a
nd e
xper
imen
tal d
ata
indi
cate
that
FAC
is co
ntro
lled
by b
oth
diss
olut
ion
and
eros
ion
(for e
xam
ple,
see
refe
renc
e: D
igby
D. M
acdo
nald
, The
Poi
nt D
efec
t Mod
el fo
r the
Pas
sive
Stat
e,
J. O
F THE
ELE
CTRO
CHEM
ICAL
SO
CIET
Y, Vo
l. 13
9, Is
sue
No.
12
(Dec
. 199
2));
NRC
find
ings
in L
R-IS
G-2
012-
01
(Dra
ft L
icen
se R
enew
al In
terim
Sta
ff G
uida
nce,
Wal
l Thi
nnin
g Du
e to
Ero
sion
Mec
hani
sms,
Exh
ibit
ENT0
0057
3) a
nd it
s ow
n da
ta a
t IPE
C.
•CH
ECW
ORK
S As
sum
ptio
n #4
: Ave
rage
mas
s tra
nsfe
r coe
ffic
ient
s are
app
licab
le
–AS
ME
code
requ
irem
ents
are
bas
ed o
n m
axim
um lo
cal r
ates
(Tc
rit –
is th
e m
inim
um lo
cal t
hick
ness
)
•CH
ECW
ORK
S As
sum
ptio
n #5
: Cor
rosi
on ra
te e
quat
ions
der
ived
from
test
s of e
lect
roch
emic
ally
driv
en
copp
er d
isso
lutio
n in
hyd
roflu
oric
aci
d ar
e ap
plic
able
(ref
eren
ce: B
ryan
Pou
lson
and
Russ
el R
obin
son,
The
U
se o
f A C
orro
sion
Proc
ess t
o O
btai
n M
ass T
rans
fer D
ata,
SCI
ENCE
, Vol
. 26,
No.
4, p
p. 2
65-2
80 (1
986)
) –
Suc
h te
sts a
re n
ot a
pplic
able
to c
arbo
n st
eel i
n th
e re
acto
r env
ironm
ent (
refe
renc
e: G
.J. B
igno
ld, K
. G
arbe
tt, R
. Gar
nsey
, & I.
S. W
oolse
y, E
rosio
n/Co
rros
ion
in N
ucle
ar S
team
Gen
erat
ors,
in W
ATER
CH
EMIS
TRY O
F NU
CLEA
R RE
ACTO
R SY
STEM
S 5, P
aper
1 (B
ritish
Nuc
lear
Eng
inee
ring
Soci
ety,
198
0)).
CHEC
WO
RKS
Pred
ictio
ns:
N
on-c
onse
rvat
ive
by a
s muc
h as
a fa
ctor
of 1
0 CH
ECW
ORK
S p
redi
ctio
ns a
re p
rese
nted
in a
man
ner t
hat h
ides
the
degr
ee o
f no
n-co
nser
vatis
m, r
esul
ting
in m
islea
ding
plo
ts.
•
As sh
own
in F
igur
es 1
A an
d 1B
, int
erch
angi
ng t
he y
and
the
x ax
es ,
incr
ease
s the
nu
mbe
r of
non-
cons
erva
tive
poin
ts, e
xcee
ding
the
50%
line
, by
a fa
ctor
of 6
.
•
The
uppe
r lin
e is
labe
led
+50
% i
nste
ad a
+10
0%, m
isrep
rese
ntin
g CH
ECW
ORK
S’
accu
racy
Figu
re 1
A -S
how
s how
alm
ost a
ll th
e no
n-co
nser
vativ
e da
ta
poin
ts a
ppea
r to
be b
ound
by
the
-50%
line
Mea
sure
d W
ear (
mils
)
150
300
0
(Ref
eren
ce: R
IV00
0111
- Ho
penf
eld
Re-p
lott
ed C
HECW
ORK
S da
ta)
Figu
re 1
B –
By in
terc
hang
ing
the
x an
d th
e y
axes
, th
e nu
mbe
r of
non
–con
serv
ativ
e po
ints
in F
igur
e 1A
, exc
eedi
ng th
e 50
%
line,
was
incr
ease
d fr
om 2
to 1
2 i.e
., by
a fa
ctor
of 6
Pred
icte
d W
ear
(Mils
)
(Ref
eren
ce: R
IV00
0111
- Ho
penf
eld
Re-p
lott
ed C
HECW
ORK
S da
ta)
Loca
l var
iatio
n w
all t
hinn
ing
show
s tha
t FAC
is c
ontr
olle
d
by b
oth
corr
osio
n an
d er
osio
n: w
rong
Inpu
t to
mod
el
Def
initi
ons:
MTC
RE: M
axim
um e
lbow
to p
ipe
mas
s tra
nsfe
r co
effic
ient
ratio
= M
axim
um e
lbow
to
pipe
met
al lo
ss
MTC
RE c
riter
ia c
an d
eter
min
e w
heth
er F
AC is
cont
rolle
d by
ch
emic
al d
issol
utio
n or
ero
sion
•
Chem
ical
diss
olut
ion
cont
rolle
d: M
TCRE
< 1
.6
•Er
osio
n co
ntro
lled:
MTC
RE >
1.6
Ca
lcul
atio
ns:
Elbo
w. M
ax. m
etal
loss
: (pt
1) 1
.446
-1.3
25=0
.121
” (P
t2)
1.54
7-0.
513=
1.03
4”
Stra
ight
pip
e, M
ax. m
etal
loss
: 1.
399-
1.37
9=0.
020”
M
etal
loss
Rat
io, (
Elbo
w /s
trai
ght p
ipe)
:(0.1
21/.
02) &
(1
.034
/.02
) i.e
. 6 to
52
Refe
renc
e: E
nter
gy U
ltras
onic
Exa
min
atio
n Re
port
, IP
EC00
0208
53, a
t bat
esta
mp
IPEC
0002
0856
Conc
lusi
on: I
f met
al lo
ss w
ere
cont
rolle
d by
diss
olut
ion
alon
e it
wou
ld h
ave
not e
xcee
ded
1.6X
; in
fact
it e
xcee
ded
it by
6X
to 5
2X, m
eani
ng th
at FA
C is
con
trol
led
by b
oth
chem
ical
diss
olut
ion
and
eros
ion.
Re
fere
nce:
Jian
rong
Wan
g, S
iam
ack
A. S
hira
zi, A
CFD
bas
ed c
orre
latio
n fo
r mas
s tra
nsfe
r co
effic
ient
in e
lbow
s, IN
T’L J
. OF H
EAT A
ND
MAS
S TRA
NSF
ER, 4
4 (2
001)
181
7-18
22.
Abru
pt lo
cal t
hick
ness
des
pite
Ent
ergy
cla
im th
at FA
C is
unifo
rm:
Refe
renc
e: E
nter
gy U
ltras
onic
Exa
min
atio
n Re
port
, IPE
C000
2085
3, a
t bat
esta
mp
IPEC
0002
0858
CHEC
WO
RKS
Met
hodo
logy
Res
ults
in O
verly
Lar
ge G
rid S
ize
CHEC
WO
RKS
was
des
igne
d to
pre
dict
ave
rage
thin
ning
rate
s by
cor
rosi
on, n
ot lo
cal r
ates
by
eith
er c
orro
sion
or e
rosi
on
•El
bow
’s th
ickn
ess v
arie
d fr
om 0
.257
” to
0.0
59”,
(77%
), m
ore
than
30
com
pone
nt g
rids
exhi
bit l
arge
loca
l var
iatio
ns, y
et E
nter
gy d
oes n
ot c
onsid
er FA
C as
a lo
cal p
heno
men
on
(ref
eren
ce: T
estim
ony
of E
nter
gy W
itnes
ses R
egar
ding
Con
tent
ion
RK-T
C-2,
EN
T000
029,
at
p.5
4)
•
Unp
redi
ctab
le co
mpo
nent
to c
ompo
nent
loca
l thi
nnin
g va
riatio
n (g
eom
etry
cha
nges
w
ith ti
me)
•
CHEC
WO
RKS
com
paris
on o
f loc
al th
inni
ng p
redi
ctio
ns w
ith m
easu
rem
ents
was
nev
er
prov
ided
(Ref
eren
ce: R
IV00
0049
- En
terg
y In
dian
Poi
nt U
3, F
AC, 3
RF13
Out
age,
200
5)
CHEC
WO
RKS
non-
cons
erva
tive
pred
ictio
ns
and
the
defin
ition
of F
AC c
ause
d co
nfus
ion;
N
RC is
sued
new
gui
danc
e
•N
URE
G-18
01, R
ev. 2
, at X
I M17
-2, n
ow re
quire
s tha
t,
“w
hen
mea
sure
men
ts sh
ow th
e pr
edic
tions
to b
e no
n-co
nser
vativ
e, th
e m
odel
mus
t be
re-c
alib
rate
d us
ing
the
late
st fi
eld
data
.”
•Dr
aft L
icen
se R
enew
al In
terim
Sta
ff Gu
idan
ce, L
R-IS
G-20
12-0
1,
Wal
l Thi
nnin
g Du
e to
Ero
sion
Mec
hani
sms (
Exhi
bit E
NT0
0057
3),
revi
sed
the
defin
ition
of w
all t
hinn
ing
to in
clud
e e
rosio
n m
echa
nism
s suc
h as
cav
itatio
n, fl
ashi
ng, d
ropl
et im
ping
emen
t, an
d so
lid p
artic
le im
ping
emen
t.
CHEC
WO
RKS
is N
ot U
sed
for S
team
Gen
erat
or C
ompo
nent
s
•10
CFR
§ 5
0.49
(b)(1
) Req
uire
s AM
P fo
r ste
am g
ener
ator
s •
Stea
m g
ener
ator
s com
pone
nts s
uch
as in
let p
ipin
g, n
ozzle
s, b
low
do
wn
pipi
ng, a
nd d
istrib
utio
n rin
g, a
re h
ighl
y su
scep
tible
to FA
C •
Ente
rgy
appr
oach
to S
team
Gen
erat
or A
MP,
“W
hen
FAC
Prog
ram
in
spec
tions
reve
al w
all t
hinn
ing,
that
dat
a is
eval
uate
d ag
ains
t th
e ap
prop
riate
des
ign
load
ing
cond
ition
s, in
clud
ing
seism
ic
load
s” is
in d
irect
vio
latio
n of
Par
t 50
Sum
mar
y
Is
sue
CLA
IMED
BY
ENTE
RGY
FACT
UAL
NO
TES
ACCU
RACY
+
/- 5
0%
with
resp
ect t
o LC
F +
/- a
fact
or o
f 2
(obs
erve
d /p
redi
cted
) As
muc
h as
a fa
ctor
of
10
FAC
Mec
hani
sm
Diss
olut
ion
only
Co
nseq
uenc
es:
wro
ng i
nput
pa
ram
eter
s
Mor
e Pr
obab
le:
Com
bine
d Ch
emic
al
and
Mec
hani
cal
Cons
erva
tism
Co
nser
vativ
e re
sults
40-6
0% re
sults
are
no
t con
serv
ativ
e
Code
was
not
des
igne
d to
be
cons
erva
tive
Mee
t NU
REG-
1801
, Rev
. 2
YES
N
O
Cann
ot b
e re
calib
rate
d
10 C
FR §
50.
49
Com
plia
nce
by
eval
uatin
g co
nseq
. on
di
scov
erin
g Tw
<Tde
s
N
O
CON
CLU
SIO
N:
CHEC
WO
RKS
does
not
mee
t Pa
rt 5
4 an
d N
URE
G-1
801
requ
irem
ents
•CH
ECW
ORK
S ca
n ne
ither
pre
dict
wal
l thi
nnin
g fo
r est
ablis
hing
insp
ectio
n fr
eque
ncie
s nor
can
it be
use
d to
id
entif
y ne
w c
ompo
nent
s for
insp
ectio
ns.
•Be
caus
e of
its i
nher
ent d
esig
n CH
ECW
ORK
S ca
n no
t be
reca
libra
ted:
–
CHEC
WO
RKS
pred
ictio
ns fo
r the
yea
rs 2
000-
2011
sho
w th
at 4
0-60
% o
f the
tim
e th
e co
de p
rodu
ced
non-
cons
erva
tive
resu
lts b
y as
muc
h as
a fa
ctor
of 1
0.
–CH
ECW
ORK
S w
as d
esig
ned
to o
ver-
pred
ict a
nd u
nder
-pre
dict
dat
a by
50%
. –
Unc
erta
intie
s in
Chro
miu
m c
onte
nt in
put,
wou
ld p
reve
nt a
ny m
eani
ngfu
l rec
alib
ratio
n of
the
code
. –
Afte
r 20
year
s of o
pera
tions
CHE
CWO
RKS
rem
ains
unc
alib
rate
d.
–Th
e in
puts
on
the
effe
cts o
f geo
met
ry a
nd v
eloc
ity o
n FA
C ra
tes a
re in
corr
ect b
ecau
se th
ey w
ere
base
d on
te
sts o
f cop
per i
n an
aci
d. In
agg
ress
ive
acid
s, th
e do
min
ant d
amag
e is
by c
hem
ical
diss
olut
ion;
thes
e te
sts
are
not a
pplic
able
to st
eel i
n w
ater
. •
Ente
rgy
cann
ot m
eet P
art 5
0, P
art 5
4 an
d N
URE
G-18
01 re
quire
men
ts b
ecau
se it
doe
s not
hav
e a
pred
ictiv
e m
etho
dolo
gy a
s req
uire
d by
NU
REG
-180
1, R
ev. 2
: –
Mon
itorin
g an
d Tr
endi
ng: C
HECW
ORK
S or
a si
mila
r pre
dict
ive
code
is u
sed
to p
redi
ct c
ompo
nent
de
grad
atio
n in
the
syst
ems c
ondu
cive
to FA
C;
–Ac
cept
ance
Crit
eria
: Ins
pect
ion
resu
lts a
re in
put f
or a
pre
dict
ive
com
pute
r cod
e, su
ch a
s CHE
CWO
RKS,
to
calc
ulat
e th
e nu
mbe
r of r
efue
ling
or o
pera
ting
cycl
es re
mai
ning
bef
ore
the
com
pone
nt re
ache
s th
e m
inim
um a
llow
able
wal
l thi
ckne
ss;
–N
SAC
202L
-R3
“Th
e pu
rpos
e of
qua
ntita
tive
anal
ysis
of u
sing
pred
ictiv
e m
etho
dolo
gy su
ch a
s CHE
CWO
RKS
is to
pre
dict
the
FAC
wea
r rat
e an
d to
det
erm
ine
the
rem
aini
ng se
rvic
e lif
e fo
r eac
h pi
ping
com
pone
nt,
incl
udin
g un
insp
ecte
d co
mpo
nent
s.”
