![Page 1: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29,
2011
Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist503-945-7448 [email protected]
oregon.gov/oda/nrd/weather.shtml#weather_forecasts
PWODT/OMSI Exclusive Presentation!
![Page 2: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
![Page 3: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
![Page 4: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Best Prediction Since 1996
![Page 5: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Winter Prediction 2010-11…Packers will
overcome injuries and win the Super Bowl!
![Page 7: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Back to the Weather!
![Page 8: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
November – January 2010-11 (Forecast Issued
October 16, 2010)Forecast Precipitation Actual Precipitation
Data courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)
![Page 9: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
November – January 2010-11 (Forecast Issued
October 16, 2010)Forecast Temperatures Actual Temperatures
Data courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)
![Page 10: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
December – February 2010-11 (Forecast Issued
October 16, 2010)Forecast Precipitation Actual Precipitation
Data courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)
![Page 11: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
December – February 2010-11 (Forecast Issued
October 16, 2010)Forecast Temperatures Actual Temperatures
Data courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)
![Page 12: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Winter 2010-11 Forecast
Well above normal precipitation.
Near normal temperatures.
Above average mountain snow.
One or more of the following in December and/or January: coastal windstorm(s); Arctic outbreak; valley snow/ice; flooding.
![Page 13: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Typical ENSO Patterns
![Page 14: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
WarmEvent
ColdEvent
![Page 15: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
PWODT Seasonal Climate Forecasting
MethodUse the SOI and ONI to
Identify Past Years With Similar Tropical Pacific Ocean Sea-Surface Temperatures.
Use Historical Data From Those Years to Make General Seasonal Predictions.
No Corrections are Made for Changes in Global Climate…Creating Error.
![Page 16: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
SOI Based On Pressure Anomalies of
Two Sites
TahitiDarwin
![Page 17: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
La NiñaEvents
El NiñoEvents
![Page 18: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
RepeatingPattern?
![Page 19: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
ONI Based on SST Departures in Niño
3.4
![Page 20: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
ONI Based on SST Departures in Niño
3.4
La NiñaEvents
El NiñoEvents
![Page 21: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
ONI Based on SST Departures in Niño
3.4RepeatingPattern?
![Page 22: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
El Niño Modoki Feb. 2010
![Page 23: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
La Niña Feb. 2011
![Page 24: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
ENSO-Neutral July 2011
![Page 25: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
August - October, 2011
![Page 26: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
La Niña Oct. 2011
![Page 27: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
ENSO-Neutral Oct. 2008
![Page 28: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
La Niña Returned? Dec. 2008
![Page 29: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
La Niña Oct. 2011
![Page 30: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Winter Forecast 2011-12
![Page 31: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
November - January2011-12 Forecast
Precipitation Temperatures
![Page 32: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
December - February2011-12 Forecast
Precipitation Temperatures
![Page 33: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Winter 2011-12 Forecast
Above average temperatures early. Bonus if ski areas can open by Thanksgiving.
Turning stormy in December and January with another cold February.
Cold periods will have a better chance of being accompanied by snow this winter.
Most mountain snowpacks should be above normal by late January - February.
![Page 34: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Winter 2011-12 Snowlights
Average Portland snowfall 4.5”
Analog average snowfall 7.5”
Above average snowfall likely for the Willamette Valley.
Watch out for freezing rain.
![Page 35: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Winter’s Big Question?
Could We See aRepeat of 2008-09?Or Worse…?
![Page 36: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
![Page 37: October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062404/551c1c47550346a84f8b5937/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29,
2011
Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist503-945-7448 [email protected]
oregon.gov/oda/nrd/weather.shtml#weather_forecasts
PWODT/OMSI Exclusive Presentation!