Oceanside-Escondido Rail Line1.011 Final Project PresentationJohn R. Velasco May 12th, 2003
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North San Diego County Transit District Service Area
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History & Background
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OVERVIEWPUBLIC OPINION: 78% of North County residents recently surveyed believe traffic on Highway 78 is a major issue.
FACTS:Heavily traveled with moderate to severe congestionCurrently 145,000 vehicle trips/day74% increase in North County population by 2015No plans to widen - not economically feasible
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Background1987 SANDAG Highway 78 Corridor Study
(determined rail service in corridor is feasible)1987 TRANSNET 1/2% sales tax approved1992 SANDAG Transit Corridor Evaluation (determined DMU’s most
cost-efficient)1992 NCTD (with MTDB) purchases 84 miles of track, including The
SPRINTER line for $90 millionKeeps project costs down
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Problems & Issues
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Problems & IssuesCal State San Marcos Loop at Highway 78 Overcrossing
37 grade crossings in 22 miles
Short-term construction traffic
Local outreach and notification
Continuing Freight Rail operations during construction
Traffic Control Plan to meet Caltrans requirements
Implementation of Traffic Control Plan will reduce impacts to less than significant
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PROJECT ENGINEERING HIGHWAY 78
Existing Conditions Looking west bound
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PROJECT ENGINEERING HIGHWAY 78
Post Development Conditions Looking west bound
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Costs & Benefits
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Costs
Total Construction Costs $205,969,000
Total Non-Constr. Costs $107,062,000
Project Contingency $ 16,400,000
Project Escalation $ 22,069,000
Total Project Budget $351,500,000
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Costs--In perspective
“Highly Recommended” Project by FTA$16.1 million/mile ($40-50 M National Avg.)55% locally fundedHigh potential use
Annual operating cost for Oceanside - Escondido Rail Project: $12.2 million in first full year of operation
Estimated 40-50% farebox recovery rate -consistent with national average
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Benefits
Potential addition of 4,884 full-time jobs during construction with 6,667 secondary or indirect jobs for the regionAddition of 170 on-site jobs for operation and maintenance of the system when it is up and running with 304 indirect jobs generatedImproved air quality…Fewer emissions from vehicles on Highway 78 (25-30% decrease in auto traffic)Increased travel capacity in the corridor...You don’t have to use transit to benefit from transitIncreased mobility for North County residents:
Link to COASTER / AMTRAK / MetrolinkLink to BREEZELink to Interstate 15 and future Bus Rapid TransitProvide bike trail in corridor More access to local schools, jobs and shopping
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SERVICE TO STUDENTS
Cal State University San MarcosCurrently has 8,000 students
plus 800 faculty & staff11,000 students projected by 200918,000 students projected by 2020
Palomar College20,000 students currently attend San Marcos campus
Mira Costa College13,616 students by 2005
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CSU SAN MARCOS STATION
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Potential Ridership
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RAIL SERVICEPassenger service every 30 minutes from 5 a.m. to 10:30 p.m.64 train trips/dayMax speed: 50 mphFlat fares proposed $1.50/tripFreight service will continue 2-3 times a week at nightProjected daily ridership:12,000 in 200519,000 in 2020
Transit riders in corridor: 9,800 on Routes 302, 318 and 320**Fastest growing ridership in system**
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POTENTIAL RIDERS
Ridership throughout the day, connections to shopping important
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Work 21%
School 12%
Shopping 68%
Visit friends 51%
Other 49%
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Diesel Multiple Unit Technology (DMU)
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WHY DMU?
•Ability to operate in existing right-of-way
•Bi-directional operation•Designed for light-density, regional service to heavily-used urban and inter-city rail lines and Bus Rapid Transit
•Modular design / “building block” approach •Multiple - unit capability•Lightweight materialSelf-propelled diesel - no catenary required
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Financial Analysis
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Financial Analysis
10% (14%)Interest Rate (yearly)
.83% (1.17%)Interest Rate (monthly)
82 (32)Total Length of Project22 (14)Length of Construction Period
2 (2)Length of Final Preparation Period58 (16)Length of Project Planning/Design Period
Control Panel (all periods in months)
313.62045.833197.22125.2201.94743.400Net Present Value (Scenario #1)
308.74246.060195.62021.9681.69443.400Net Present Value (Base)
335.08546.636214.91127.7932.34543.400Original Costs
Total Expenses
Final SetupConstructionDesign
Project Management
Land/Right-of-Way
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Scenario Analysis
$2,874,375.00 Total Yearly Revenue
$7,875.00 Total Daily Revenue250Train Capacity 10.5Total time (hrs)
5,250Total Daily Riders21Total Trips/Day17.5Stop time:
$1.50 Fare/person/trip2# Trips/Hr7Start time:
Format( 5.5=5:30 AM, 22.25=10:15 PM)
14%Interest RateNew
$6,775,312.50 Total Yearly Revenue
$18,562.50 Total Daily Revenue375Train Capacity 16.5Total time (hrs)
12,375Total Daily Riders33Total Trips/Day22Stop time:
$1.50 Fare/person/trip2# Trips/Hr5.5Start time:
Format( 5.5=5:30 AM, 22.25=10:15 PM)
10%Interest RateOriginal
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Conclusions
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ReviewState Route 78 Inadequate to carry increasing traffic
Total Construction Costs: $350 M
Avg. Cost/Mile= $16.1 M (National Avg. $45-60 M)
40-50% Farebox Recovery Rate
12,000+ daily rider when opens in 2005
State-of-the-art DMU Technology
Environmentally Friendly, Efficient, Cheap!