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NYC Emergency Responders: An Analysis on FDNY Response Times
By: LT Jason McKeown& LT Annette Feliciano-Ramos
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Agenda
• Background Story/Problem Statement• Network Model• Method• Formulation• Results• Analysis• Conclusions
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World Trade Center Attacks
• FDNY Response– 200+ Units
• Combined companies
– First 3 Hours• 121 Engines (61%)• 62 Ladders (43%)• 27 Chiefs (47%)• Lead to management
difficulties
– City Wide Coverage Maintained• Avg Response time: 5.5min
• FDNY Losses– 343 Fire Fighters– 98 Vehicles
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Problem Statement
Evaluate fire department city wide response for a catastrophic high rise fire with the presence of degraded infrastructure.
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Why?• Construction is currently
underway to build the new “One World Trade Center” building.
• Creates a target for future, possibly more sophisticated, terrorist attacks.
• Attacking infrastructure to impede emergency response is a possibility.
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FDNY Structure• New York City
– Consists of 5 Boroughs• Manhattan• The Bronx• Brooklyn• Queens• Staten Island
– Connected by bridge and tunnel network.• Brooklyn Bridge• JFK Bridge• Etc.
– Emergency Response Strength• 15,870 Responders• 52 Battalions• 251 Stations• 198 Engines• 143 Ladders
• FDNY Structure• Fire Commissioner (Civilian)
• Overall authority in NYC• Chief of Department
• Highest ranking fire fighter• Chief of Fire Operations
• Responsible for fire fighting efforts throughout the city
• Borough Chiefs• Responsible for fire fighting
efforts in their respective Boroughs
• Division Chief• Battalion Chief• Captain (Fire Station Commander)
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Network Model• Nodes (254)– Start Node– Fire Houses– Bridges– WTC (destination)
• Edges (1289)– Start to Fire Houses– Fire House to Bridge Arcs– Bridge to Bridge Arcs
• Data– Avg Response Times– Fire House Locations– Fire House Capacities
– http://nycopendata.socrata.com/
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Assumptions
• Borough response times are homogenized.• FDNY response is contained within NYC
boarders.• All non-attacked bridges are currently
available for transit.• Responding Fire Houses utilize all resources
available.• Response is instantaneous (no response lag).
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Staten Island
Brooklyn
Manhattan
Queens
Bronx
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New York City
Manhattan
Bronx
Brooklyn
Staten Island
Queens
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Staten Island
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Staten Island
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Staten Island
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Brooklyn
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Brooklyn Bridge
Manhattan Bridge
Williamsburg Bridge
Brooklyn
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Brooklyn
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Queens
Throgs Neck Bridge
Bronx Whitestone Bridge
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Queens
Throgs Neck Bridge
Bronx Whitestone Bridge
QueensboroughBridge
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Bronx Whitestone Bridge
Queens
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Bronx
Throgs Neck Bridge
Bronx Whitestone Bridge
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Bronx
Throgs Neck Bridge
Bronx Whitestone Bridge
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Bronx
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Manhattan
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WTC
Manhattan
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WTC
Manhattan
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New York City
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New York CityBridges to WTC
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• Purpose: Minimize the average response times of emergency responders given a prerequisite number of units. (ex: 50 Fire Stations Responding).– Attacks on the network are aimed at vital nodes that
provide connections to other boroughs
Min Cost Flow
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Manhattan Isolation(# attacks > # bridges)
0 10 20 30 40 50 600.1
1
10
100
1000
Manhattan Isolation
Avg Time
Req'd Responders
Avg
Tim
e (m
in)
Manhattan contains 48 Fire Stations. Thus for a situation where 49 responders are required, FDNY Manhattan would be overwhelmed if they were to receive no outside assistance.
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Attacking the Network (49-198 Req’d)
15-16: Isolation of Manhattan6-7: Isolation of Manhattan & The Bronx4-5: Isolation of Manhattan, The Bronx, and Queens3-4: Isolation of Manhattan, The Bronx, Queens, and Brooklyn. This also removes the need for Staten Island.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 201
10
100
1000
10000Operator Resilience Curve
49 Req'd
83 Req'd
148 Req'd
153 Req'd
198 Req'd
# of Attacks
Avg
Tim
e (m
in)
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Conclusions
• To Overwhelm the FDNY– Requires another 9/11 type attack.• Massive response requires manpower and
resources
– Requires isolation of the borough• Level of sophistication would be very high• Would not go unnoticed• Extensive bridge network needs to be defeated.
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Future Research• Determine Fire House
dispatch procedures to determine individual node capacities.
• Obtain actual list of dispatched Fire Houses and those that self-dispatched.
Image credit: Joe Woolhead Courtesy of: Silverstein Properties Taken: September 08, 2011
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Questions