NovEnergia II Technical Bureau - Sep08
THE OPPORTUNITIES OF THE OPPORTUNITIES OF
HUNGARIAN WIND ENERGYHUNGARIAN WIND ENERGY
Álvaro RodriguesÁlvaro Rodrigues
September 2008
NovEnergia II Technical Bureau - Sep08
. Renewable Energy Sources - Wind Energy
. Renewables and electricity
. Wind Energy in Europe – Hungary / Portugal
. The “ingredients” for a wind farm project
. Y do we care so much about wind?
. Wind velocity, wind turbines and productivity
. Uncertainty in resource evaluation and production
estimates
Summary
NovEnergia II Technical Bureau - Sep08
WIND
WAVES
BIOMASS
WASTES
PHOTOVOLTAIC
SOLAR THERMAL
TIDAL
HYDRO GEOTHERMAL
Renewable Energy Sources
WIND
NovEnergia II Technical Bureau - Sep08
Renewables and electricity
Biomass
Tidal
Hydro
Wind
Mechanicalenergy
Electricity
Thermalenergy
Chemicalenergy
OTEC
Atm. air
Radiation
Waves
Nuclear
Geothermal
PV
NovEnergia II Technical Bureau - Sep08
Wind energy – annual growth
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1001992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Capaci
ty [
GW
]
Europe
World
NovEnergia II Technical Bureau - Sep08
Portugal / Hungary
92 391 km210 617 575 inh
~11,0 GW~ 8,5 GW
93 030 km210 064 000 inh
~8,5 GW~6,5 GW
NovEnergia II Technical Bureau - Sep08
3,475
17,475
65,075
112,075
60,875
3,2500,8500,8500
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
MW
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250
2500
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Cap
acit
y [M
W]
Accumulated
New capacity
Under construction
Installed capacities
Hungary
Portugal
124,950
112,075
NovEnergia II Technical Bureau - Sep08
by 2012, 45% of the electricity consumption
are to be provided by renewables
consideringthe estimated growth
of demand
considering the contributions
from other sources
it will be necessary to get
~ 5 700 MW from wind !
Portugal – the target
NovEnergia II Technical Bureau - Sep08
NovEnergia II Hungary
# Project Capacity[MW]
Investment[M€]
Productivity[hfc]
Rights on landsEnvironmental
permissionBuilding permission Interconnection
1 A 30 45 2100 Secured Obtained ObtainedProject under negotiation
2 B 30 45 2100 To renew ObtainedObtainedfor 6 MW
LOI obtained
3 C 28 42 2100 To be secured Ready to apply Not startedConnect. point
at 10 km
4 D 22 33 2500 Secured Obtained Obtained Obtained
5 E 50 75 2400 Secured Obtained Not started LOI obtained
6 F 24 - 36 36 - 54 2200 Partly secured Not started Not startedConnect. point
at 2-3 km
7 G 40 60 2500 SecuredObtained for 36
MWObtainedfor 24 MW
24 MW obtainedplan for 16 MW
Und
er
deve
lopm
ent
Und
er
nego
tiat
ions
Und
er stu
dy
NovEnergia II Technical Bureau - Sep08
Site selection
Contacts with local authorities
Negotiations for the land (rental or acquisition)
Wind measuring campaign
Environmental studies
Electrical connection study
Wind resource assessment
Project definition
Development of a wind energy project
NovEnergia II Technical Bureau - Sep08
[Manufacturer pre-selection (WECs)]
Projects (main access, power line)
Call for tenders
Offer selection / negotiation / contract
Detailed projects
Construction
Commissioning
Follow up and performance verification
Development of a wind energy project
NovEnergia II Technical Bureau - Sep08
Why measuring the wind?
6,18 6,50 6,83-5,0% - 5,0%
4657 5138 5609
-9,4% - 9,2%
Productivity[hfc]
2329 2569 2804
Capacity factor[%]
26,6 29,3 32,0
Incoming (PT)[€]
350 300 388 000 425 000
Average selling price (PT)[€/MWh]
75,2 75,5 75,8
Production[MWh/ano]
Wind velocity (nacelle)
(rar=1,18 kg/m3 ; kWeib=1,8)[m/s]
For a 2 MW ( ≈ 80 m ) WEC
NovEnergia II Technical Bureau - Sep08
What to measure?
5 1 0 1 5 2 0
N
EW
S0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Velocidade do Vent o [m/ s]
0
5
10
15
Freq
uênc
ia [%
]
Wind velocity [m/s]
Fre
qu
en
cy [
%]
Direction and velocity
rair Atmospheric pressure | ambient temperature | air humidity
NovEnergia II Technical Bureau - Sep08
Which wind characteristics?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 2 4 6 8 10
Velocidade do vento [m/ s]
Alt
ura
a.n.
s [m
]
N
Global
Velocidade média
PORT230 - Monte da Ovelha
(60 / 30 m a.n.s.) 52610 registos
Wind velocity [m/s]
Heig
ht
a.g
.l.
[m]
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25N
E
S
W
Expoente de perfi l positivo ( p )
Expoente de perfi l negativo (- p )
PORT230 - Monte da Ovelha
(60 / 30 m a.n.s.) 52610 registos
Positive shear factor
Negative shear factor
Shear factor [ V / V0 = (h / h0)]
NovEnergia II Technical Bureau - Sep08
Wind velocity, wind turbines and productivity
for 5,5 m/s at 60 m agl
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250
2500
0,6 MW2,53 m2/ kW
0,85 MW3,11 m2/ kW
1,5 MW3,10 m2/ kW
2 MW2,51 m2/ kW
2,3 MW3,02 m2/ kW
Pro
duct
ivity
[hfc
]
turbine axis height
60 m a.g.l
46 m
65 m
80 m
78 m
100m
NovEnergia II Technical Bureau - Sep08
Which wind characteristics?
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 5 10 15 20 25
Velocidade do vento [m/s]
Inte
nsid
ade
de
turb
ulên
cia
[%]
IT
IT (14<v15 m/s)
PORT230 - Monte da Ovelha
(60 m a.n.s.) 366 Dias válidos
Wind velocity [m/s]
Tu
rbu
len
ce in
ten
sit
y [
%]
Turbulence intensity [ I = / V]
NovEnergia II Technical Bureau - Sep08
How long shell a measuring campaign last?
0
2
4
6
8
10
J an Fev Mar Abr Mai J un J ul Ago Set Out Nov Dez
Velo
cid
ade d
o v
ento
[m
/s]
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Flu
xo d
e p
otê
ncia
[W
/m2 ]
Fluxo de potência a 10 m a.n.s.
Velocidade média a 10 m a.n.s.
Mon
thly
avera
ge v
elo
city
[m
/s]
Pow
er
flu
x [
W/m
2]
Seasonal variability
0
2
4
6
8
10
J an-04 Fev-04 Mar-04 Abr-04 Mai-04 J un-04 J ul-04 Ago-04 Set-04 Out-04 Nov-04 Dez-04
Velo
cida
de d
o ve
nto
[m/s
]
0
200
400
600
Flux
o de
pot
ênci
a [W
/m2 ]
Fluxo de potência a 60 m a.n.s.
Velocidade média a 60 m a.n.s. M
on
thly
avera
ge v
elo
city
[m
/s]
Pow
er
flu
x [
W/m
2]
NovEnergia II Technical Bureau - Sep08
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Vel
ocid
ade
méd
ia a
nual
[m
/s]
Inter-annual variability
An
nu
al avera
ge v
elo
city
[m
/s]
How long shell a measuring campaign last?
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
NovEnergia II Technical Bureau - Sep08
Velocitymeasurements
Inter-annualvariability
Topography Roughness Others
Air densityPower curve Others
Verticalextrapolation
UNCERTAINTYIN POWER
Horizontalextrapolation
AD. UNCERTAINT.
UNCERTAINTYIN VELOCITY
PRODUCTIONUNCERTAINTY
Uncertainty in production estimates
NovEnergia II Technical Bureau - Sep08
Uncertainty in production estimates
Uncertainty factor % Uncertainty factor %
Velocity measurements 2,0
Inter-annual variability 1,5
Topography 1,0
Roughness description 1,0
Vertical extrapolation 2,0
Horizontal extrapolation 5,0
Others 1,0
Uncertainty in velocity 6,3
Determination of air density 2,0
Velocity-to-energy convertion 2,2 WEC power curve 2,5Others 2,0
Uncertainty in power 13,8 Aditional uncertainties 3,8
14,3%UNCERTAINTY IN PRODUCTION
NovEnergia II Technical Bureau - Sep08
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1,0
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Exceedence probability
P/P5
015 %12,5 %10%
Exceedence probabilities
2300 hfc
2005 hfc
1857 hfc