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North American developments and trends
Jérôme Ferrier President IGU
Thursday 30 October 2014
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IGU is the voice of 98 % of the Global Gas Market
IEA-IEF-OPEC, October 30th, 2014 2
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Shale gas leads US natural gas growth to 2040
Source : IEA Annual Energy Outlook 2013 3 IEA-IEF-OPEC, October 30th, 2014
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Natural Gas Prices by Region 1996-2013
Source : BP Statistical Review 2014 4 IEA-IEF-OPEC, October 30th, 2014
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US gas production grows faster than consumption
Source : IEA Annual Energy Outlook 2013 IEA-IEF-OPEC, October 30th, 2014 5
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US LNG exports for 2015-2035: less than 2 % of reserves and 8 % of US cumulated gas consumption
Source : API IEA-IEF-OPEC, October 30th, 2014 6
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LNG Supply (Excluding North America)
Source : Oxford Institute for Energy Studies IEA-IEF-OPEC, October 30th, 2014 7
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North American LNG Imports and Exports to 2025
Source : Oxford Institute for Energy Studies IEA-IEF-OPEC, October 30th, 2014 8
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Share of Global LNG Trade
Source : BP Energy Outlook 2035 IEA-IEF-OPEC, October 30th, 2014 9
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Asian LNG Demand (Japan, Korea, Taiwan, India, China)
Source : Oxford Institute for Energy Studies IEA-IEF-OPEC, October 30th, 2014 10
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Break-even Destination Market Prices for US LNG to Europe and Asia
Source : Henderson (2013) and OIES IEA-IEF-OPEC, October 30th, 2014 11
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EU’s energy policy for Europe is a deterrent for new LNG import projects
Source : IEA IEA-IEF-OPEC, October 30th, 2014 12
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The EU ETS system and the collapse og CO2 price
IEA-IEF-OPEC, October 30th, 2014 13
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Price indicies for oil, gas, coal and electricity in the EU 2008-2013
Source : EU Commission IEA-IEF-OPEC, October 30th, 2014 14
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New coal-fired power capacities in Europe
Source: Ecoprog GmbH. 15 IEA-IEF-OPEC, October 30th, 2014
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Coal has fallen below 35 % of the US power generation mix
Source : IEA 2013 IEA-IEF-OPEC, October 30th, 2014 16
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CO2 Emissions trend in US Power Generation (metric ton)
Source : NRDC 2014 IEA-IEF-OPEC, October 30th, 2014 17
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The UK Emissions Performance Standards (EPS) Energy Bill 2012 - 2013
EPS requires that any new coal fired power plant demonstrate CCS on at least 300 MW of the proposed generating capacity Sets a CO2 emission limit at 450 g/kWh until 2045 Guarantees stability od emission regulation until 2045 (grandfathering) EPS complements the economic signals provided by the Carbon Floor Price and, when applicable, the feed-in electricity purchase tariff with Contract for Difference (CFD) EPS gives incentives to « Good Quality » CHPs, by discounting the volumes of CO2 saved in the heat production by displacing other fossil fuels
IEA-IEF-OPEC, October 30th, 2014 18
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US Natural Gas Exports Outlook
Source : BP Energy Outlook to 2035 IEA-IEF-OPEC, October 30th, 2014 19
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The benefits of LNG exports on Employment
Source : NERA May 2014 IEA-IEF-OPEC, October 30th, 2014 20
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2015 World Gas Conference