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No Worker Left No Worker Left BehindBehind
December 12, 2007December 12, 2007Andy Levin, Deputy DirectorAndy Levin, Deputy Director
Michigan Dept. of Labor & Economic Michigan Dept. of Labor & Economic GrowthGrowth
[email protected]@michigan.gov517-373-6334517-373-6334
www.michigan.gov/nwlbwww.michigan.gov/nwlb
MI Workforce System MI Workforce System SnapshotSnapshot
• Strong, decentralized CC system (28)Strong, decentralized CC system (28)• Proud, decentralized WDB/one-stop Proud, decentralized WDB/one-stop
system (“Michigan Works!”) (25)system (“Michigan Works!”) (25)• Little statewide collaboration or Little statewide collaboration or
strategystrategy• Misfit between federal programs & Misfit between federal programs &
what we needwhat we need– WIA: reemployment vs. trainingWIA: reemployment vs. training– TAA: better, but misses mostTAA: better, but misses most
Major ChallengeMajor ChallengeRebuilding adult ed in Rebuilding adult ed in MIMI
• We radically defunded it: from $80M to We radically defunded it: from $80M to $20M$20M
• It wasn’t working anywayIt wasn’t working anyway• Massive numbers of Michiganders areMassive numbers of Michiganders are
– Functionally illiterateFunctionally illiterate– Non-English speakingNon-English speaking– Not ready for associate’s level work in Not ready for associate’s level work in
anythinganything
• We MUST NOT AND WILL NOT leave We MUST NOT AND WILL NOT leave these brothers and sisters behind!these brothers and sisters behind!
Our blessing, our curseOur blessing, our curseMI has nearly 1/4 of US MI has nearly 1/4 of US
auto jobsauto jobsU.S. Automotive Industry - State Share
Percent Employment by State 2006
20.1%
11.9% 11.7%
5.1% 5.0%3.7% 3.3% 3.1%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Michigan Ohio Indiana Tennessee Kentucky California Texas Missouri
““Detroit 3” U.S. Market ShareDetroit 3” U.S. Market Share• Plummeted by almost half in a Plummeted by almost half in a
decadedecade• From 73 % in 1996 to 54% in From 73 % in 1996 to 54% in
20062006Big Three Market Share
1996-2006
ChryslerGroup 13%
Chrysler Group16%
Ford26%
Ford17%
GM31%
GM24%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Source: WardsAuto.com
ManufacturingManufacturing• Decline of over 270,000 jobs from 1999 to 2007Decline of over 270,000 jobs from 1999 to 2007
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Mon
thly
Em
plo
ymen
t Lev
el
(100
0s)
Apr 2007634,500
Jan 1992780,300
Jul 1999906,200
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: Economic and Revenue Forecasting Division, Michigan Department of Treasury, 5/30/07
Michigan and U.S. Unemployment Rates
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
181
97
6
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
An
nu
al A
vg
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
U.S.
Michigan
sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, and National Bureau of Economic Research
(Recessions shaded )
UnemploymentUnemployment
Michigan Job Market Michigan Job Market FrigidFrigid
• bizjournal.combizjournal.com report report on 100 largest U.S. job on 100 largest U.S. job markets (9/07)markets (9/07)
• Coldest job marketsColdest job markets– Grand Rapids - #10Grand Rapids - #10– Lansing - # 6Lansing - # 6– Detroit - #Detroit - #11
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
Level of Educational Attainment
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
the
Po
pu
lati
on Michigan
EducationalAttainment
United StatesEducationalAttainment
Educational AttainmentEducational Attainment
The World in a Grain of SandThe World in a Grain of Sand
General Motors & FlintGeneral Motors & Flint• 1955 - Flint, MI employees: 86,7001955 - Flint, MI employees: 86,700• 2007 - U.S. employees: 73,0002007 - U.S. employees: 73,000
Flint today…Flint today…• Flint residents living in poverty has increased Flint residents living in poverty has increased
62.5 %62.5 %• In 2004, 26.4 % of the 124,000 people in Flint In 2004, 26.4 % of the 124,000 people in Flint
lived below the poverty linelived below the poverty line• 80 % of those households have individuals 80 % of those households have individuals
who are employed full or part timewho are employed full or part time
Source: "Poverty in Genesee County: A social crisis," from a study conducted in 2004 by Michigan Department for Career Development and the
Genesee Action Resource Department.
The Good Jobs of Today & The Good Jobs of Today & Tomorrow Require TrainingTomorrow Require Training
• OccupationOccupation– Network systems and data communications Network systems and data communications
analystsanalysts– Physician assistants Physician assistants – Computer software engineers, applications Computer software engineers, applications – Physical therapist assistantsPhysical therapist assistants– Dental hygienists Dental hygienists – Computer software engineers, systems Computer software engineers, systems
software software – Network and computer systems administrators Network and computer systems administrators – Database administratorDatabase administrator– Physical TherapistPhysical Therapist– Forensic science technicianForensic science technician
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Doctor
al D
egre
e
First P
rofe
ssio
nal D
egre
e
Mas
ter's
Deg
ree
Work
Exp
erie
nce &
BA o
r Hig
her D
egre
e
Bachel
or's D
egre
e (B
A)
Associ
ate
Degre
e
Post-S
econda
ry V
ocatio
nal T
rain
ing
Exper
ience
in R
elat
ed O
ccupat
ion
Long-te
rm (
> 12
Month
s) O
JT
Moder
ate-
term
(1 to
12
Month
s) OJT
Short-te
rm (S
hort Dem
o or <
1 M
onth) O
JT
Degrees
Per
cen
tag
e o
f G
row
th
Source: DLEG, Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives Occupational Employment Forecasts 2004-2014
Jobs Requiring Education Jobs Requiring Education Growing FasterGrowing Faster
Education, Weekly Earnings and Unemployment, U.S. 2004
Source: Current Population Survey
$0$100$200$300$400$500$600$700$800$900
$1,000
< 9th Grade HS Somecollege
AA Deg BA Deg
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%
Weekly Earnings Unemployment Rate
Source: DLEG, Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives Michigan Job Vacancy Survey 2006
$34.15
$22.50
$19.59
$11.68$9.50$8.00
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%N
o D
iplo
ma
HS
/GE
DV
ocat
iona
l Tra
inin
gA
ssoc
iate
's D
egre
eB
ache
lor's
Deg
ree
Adv
ance
d D
egre
e
Pe
rce
nt
of
Jo
b V
ac
an
cie
s (
%)
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
Me
dia
n W
ag
e (
$)
Education Median Wages
Our Jobs DilemmaOur Jobs Dilemma
School reform can’t fix this School reform can’t fix this alonealone
• About two-thirds (65 percent) of our 2020 About two-thirds (65 percent) of our 2020 workforce is already beyond the reach of K-workforce is already beyond the reach of K-12 schools. 12 schools.
• Current potential pool of skilled workers Current potential pool of skilled workers among prime-age adults (18-44) is equal to among prime-age adults (18-44) is equal to the next 17 years of high school graduating the next 17 years of high school graduating classes. classes.
• Michigan has seen rapid growth in high Michigan has seen rapid growth in high school grads in last 5 years but that will peak school grads in last 5 years but that will peak this year and fall rapidly over next ten years.this year and fall rapidly over next ten years.
• In effect we need to “grow our own” skilled In effect we need to “grow our own” skilled workforce from among the workers we workforce from among the workers we already have.already have.
Culture of Life Long Culture of Life Long LearningLearning
Grand Rapids High SchoolAlpine Elementary
Grand Rapids Community College
No Worker Left BehindNo Worker Left Behind
•RevitalizeRevitalize – New VisionNew Vision
•ReorganizeReorganize– Many funding Many funding
streams, one facestreams, one face
•ReplenishReplenish– Add’l $ for Add’l $ for
training: federal, training: federal, state, privatestate, private
Double # of Michiganders Double # of Michiganders TrainedTrained
• In-Demand OccupationsIn-Demand Occupations• To Over 100,000To Over 100,000• In the Next Three YearsIn the Next Three Years
Who is Eligible for Who is Eligible for NWLB?NWLB?
• Any person whoAny person who– Is unemployed (broadly defined) orIs unemployed (broadly defined) or– Has received notification of termination; Has received notification of termination;
andand• Any person who is currently employed Any person who is currently employed
whose family income is less than $40Kwhose family income is less than $40K• Excluded: 18-23 year olds who recently Excluded: 18-23 year olds who recently
graduated HS or are in collegegraduated HS or are in college
What NWLB Offers What NWLB Offers Michigan WorkersMichigan Workers
• Up-front assessment & counselingUp-front assessment & counseling• Up to two years worth of free tuition Up to two years worth of free tuition
and fees to complete a certificate or and fees to complete a certificate or degreedegree
• Up to $5,000 per year, $10,000 for two Up to $5,000 per year, $10,000 for two yearsyears
• Help with child care and transportationHelp with child care and transportation• Placement assistance after trainingPlacement assistance after training• Hope for a new beginning!Hope for a new beginning!
And what level student is And what level student is included?included?
Everyone from ABE to MA Everyone from ABE to MA students!students!
Worker’s End of the DealWorker’s End of the Deal• Go to local MWA for assessmentGo to local MWA for assessment• Pursue certificate/degree towards:Pursue certificate/degree towards:
– In-demand occupationIn-demand occupation– Growing or emerging industryGrowing or emerging industry– EntrepreneurshipEntrepreneurship– (What training qualifies decided by each MWA)(What training qualifies decided by each MWA)
• Continued funding depends on performanceContinued funding depends on performance• Sign up within three years (Aug. 2007 – July Sign up within three years (Aug. 2007 – July
2010) 2010) • Complete training within four years of Complete training within four years of
startingstarting
FundingFunding
• All available student All available student financial aid firstfinancial aid first
• Federal funding secondFederal funding second– Workforce Investment ActWorkforce Investment Act– TAATAA– TANFTANF– Vocational RehabVocational Rehab
• State “General Fund” State “General Fund” funding last (if/when we funding last (if/when we get it)get it)
NWLB By the NumbersNWLB By the Numbers
• Public interest: the sky is the limitPublic interest: the sky is the limit• 2,000 have joined an unadvertised e-2,000 have joined an unadvertised e-
mail listmail list• Participation in one-stop orientation Participation in one-stop orientation
sessions up 100-500%sessions up 100-500%• A sustained publicity campaign A sustained publicity campaign
would overwhelm the systemwould overwhelm the system
No Worker Left Behind By No Worker Left Behind By the Numbersthe Numbers
Enrolled in Enrolled in TrainingTrainingMonth 2007 2006 2005 2004
August 2,528 2,312 2,477 1,603
September 2,641 2,380 2,756 1,502
October 1,879 2,224 1,497 1,191
November *740 1,567 1,291 1,153
Total 7,788 8,483 8,021 5,449
* Thru 11/23/07
Career Education Consumer Report (CECR) Activity
MonthPrograms
Updated /Added 2007
Schools Updating Programs 2007
July 349 64
August 951 114
September 641 112
October 735 117
Fiscal Situation → Future Fiscal Situation → Future CloudyCloudy
• MI had to close $1.8B deficit for FY MI had to close $1.8B deficit for FY 20082008
• Partisan rancor; brief shutdown Partisan rancor; brief shutdown 10/1/0710/1/07
• FY 2009: deficit of $500-600M or moreFY 2009: deficit of $500-600M or more• Gov has said she won’t ask for any Gov has said she won’t ask for any
new revenuenew revenue• Time to get creative!Time to get creative!
Bottom Line: NWLB Bottom Line: NWLB Shows Shows
Transformation Possible!Transformation Possible!• Upskilling is independent contributor to Upskilling is independent contributor to diversification and resurgencediversification and resurgence
• Cultural change to lifelong learning Cultural change to lifelong learning requires concrete opportunity and hoperequires concrete opportunity and hope
• Public demand is evidentPublic demand is evident• The impact full scale NWLB program The impact full scale NWLB program
would have on MI would be staggeringwould have on MI would be staggering• The political challenge: how to get the The political challenge: how to get the
business community to demand what is business community to demand what is in its best interestin its best interest
No Worker Left No Worker Left BehindBehind
December 12, 2007December 12, 2007Andy Levin, Deputy DirectorAndy Levin, Deputy Director
Michigan Dept. of Labor & Economic Michigan Dept. of Labor & Economic GrowthGrowth
[email protected]@michigan.gov517-373-6334517-373-6334
www.michigan.gov/nwlbwww.michigan.gov/nwlb