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ANNOUNCER: This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Tyler Mathisen and
Susie Gharib, brought to you by --
(COMMERCIAL AD)
SUSIE GHARIB, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Good evening,
everyone. And welcome to a special Fourth of July edition of NIGHTLY
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BUSINESS REPORT.
Well, Wall Street has had plenty of its own fireworks this year with
the S&P 500 gaining a hefty 12 1/2 percent in the first half of 2013, its
best showing in 15 years. And since World War II, big increases in the
first six months of the year usually lead to gains in the second half,
Tyler.
TYLER MATHISEN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Indeed, they do.
So, tonight, it`s time to look ahead. What to expect in the next
three months and then the next three months after that?
We`ll examine some of the top sectors from housing to the consumer,
to energy, to defense, and what other ramifications for the economy and, of
course, for stocks.
And we start with one of the pillars of the economy: housing.
Fuelled by the comeback in the housing market, homebuilder stocks had a
very nice run of their own in the first half of the year. Now, as you can
see here, the home builders essentially kept pace with the broader market,
packing on a double digit gain.
As for the housing market this quarter, Diana Olick tells us two
words will likely hold the key: interest rates.
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(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
DIANA OLICK, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Here is what to
watch for in real estate in the quarter ahead:
Rising interest rates are the wild card for buyers, sellers,
builders, ritz and the big banks. Home prices are up over 12 percent from
a year ago according to Core Logic, but the average rate on the 30-year
fixed is up nearly a full percentage point in Q2. That will put added
pressure on the home prices and on the builders who have been raising
prices even more aggressively.
Rising rates have already hit refis, which could mean more layoffs at
the backs and could also trickle down to the home improvement sector in Q3.
Real investment trusts have also felt the pain already and could fall even
more out of favor as rates rise.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Diana Olick.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GHARIB: They say the consumer is the backbone of the economy and
while the consumer has been buying, it seems the rate at which the consumer
has been spending has been relatively stagnant.
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Now, one good thing: confidence in the economy has been on the rise.
So, will the consumer keep the wallet open or tighten the purse
strings? And what else can we expect at the stores this quarter.
Courtney Reagan has the retail round up.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
COURTNEW REAGAN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Here`s what
to watch for in the retail sector in the quarter ahead:
It`s retail second biggest season back to school. Every year, kids
out grow clothing and needs new pencils but the fight to win those shoppers
is as competitive as ever. Retailers have expressed worry about the low-
end consumers look for big promotions in marketing tactics from
heavyweights like Walmart and Target (NYSE:TGT).
JCPenney CEO Mike Ullman will be under the microscope as he tries to
win back sales with the struggling retailer where children`s apparel makes
up 12 percent of total sales.
And looking to sell laptops, Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) will roll out its
new Window stores in 500 locations by the end of summer just as students go
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back to class.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Courtney Reagan.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MATHISEN: Well, one place consumers are putting their money these
days is their vehicles. It`s been a particularly strong first half for the
auto market and that has most experts projecting more than 15.5 million
cars and trucks will be sold this year.
And things full throttle in the air as the airlines ride a jet stream
of strong profits.
Phil LeBeau takes a look what lies ahead this quarter on the roads
and in the skies.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PHIL LEBEAU, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Here is what to
watch for in the quarter ahead from the auto and airline industries:
For the auto industry, it`s all about the truck market and whether or
not it remains red hot. As the housing market has recovered, there`s been
greater demand from construction firms and small business operators to
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renew their fleet of pickup trucks. That`s especially good news for the
Big Three. They have long dominated the pickup market in North America and
if demand remains strong this summer, look for the big three to not only
pick up market share but to also report a very profitable third quarter.
As for the airline industry, it`s all about what happens with jet
fuel prices. Jet fuel prices have been moderate so far this year and
that`s allowed the airlines to post relatively strong profits. That is
expected to continue in the third quarter, provided jet fuel does not spike
higher.
Also, remember, the third quarter is among the busiest quarters of
the year for the airline industry. As a result, those packed planes mean
the airlines will have an opportunity to rack up strong ancillary revenue
numbers.
That`s a look at what to expect from the auto and airline industry in
the next quarter.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Phil LeBeau.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GHARIB: So, what do these sectors tell us about the outlook for the
U.S. economy?
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Joining us now to connect the dots, Millan Mulraine. He`s an
economist at TD Securities. And welcome to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT.
MILLAN MULRAINE, ECONOMIST: Thanks --
GHARIB: So, housing, retail, auto sales -- they`ve been strong for
the first six months of the year. Do you see that trend continuing for the
rest of the year, or is the second half going to be different?
MULRAINE: Well, I think it`s going to be different. It`s going to
be better.
I`m really encouraged by what I`ve seen in the first half this year.
I think that`s every indication from what we`ve seen so far that the pieces
are in place, the fundamentals are in place for us to have a more sustained
recovery in the second half of this year.
Keep in mind: what we`re seeing in the first half, the tepid recovery
is a function of the significant fiscal austerity that we`ve seen. We`ve
seen the biggest drag from fiscal austerity since the peace war period.
And that`s happening at a time when the economy is still growing at 1.5
with fiscal drag of 1.5.
So, the economy or the fundamentals of the economy are showing that
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we have an economy that`s greater than 3 percent rate. And with that in
place as the drag disappeared in the second half of this year, you`re going
to see the private sector fundamental start reasserting themselves and then
we can see growth north of 2.5 percent in the second half of this year.
MATHISEN: If you get -- if that prediction comes true and growth
accelerates to 2 1/2 percent, maybe even more as we get into the fourth
quarter, what is the implication for interest rates and Federal Reserve`s
policy?
MULRAINE: Well, that s a very interesting question. I think at this
point what the Fed has signaled that their intent is to reduce the level of
stimulus and I think they are looking at three things. For one, they want
to see the confirmation in the economy that we are making a turn for the
better and the pace of the recovery is accelerating. I think they will get
confirmation for that.
And that certainly means that the September time in the market seemed
to have price it, seemed appropriate at this time. So at that point, I
think the Fed will get the indication that the economy needs less support
and they would start reducing the level of stimulus they provide into the
economy.
GHARIB: So how does all of this translate for people who are out of
work and looking for a job? Do you think the job market is going to be
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better?
MULRAINE: Yes, absolutely I think so. And there are a number of
reasons for that. One, is I think the problems that we see and the tepid
phase of recovery we see in the labor market more generally has a lot to do
with uncertainty, political uncertainly, global uncertainty and at this
point I think it`s uncertainty about the nature of the recovery and demand.
When businesses get more confirmation that there is a more sustained
upward trajectory for consumer demand, then they will be more willing to
hire on a permanent basis and I think they would also be more willing to
invest in capital equipment and we would like to see that starting in the
second half of next year.
MATHISEN: That`s been a notable weak spot, hasn t it, investment in
capital equipment recently?
MULRAINE: Absolutely, it has been. And, again, I think kind of go
hand and hand employment and capital investment. And to the extent that
we`ve had some clarity on the political front, the next big step is to have
that confirmation of sustained growth.
MATHISEN: You think that the Fed may begin to withdraw some of the
stimulus at its September meeting, or at least that they`re going to dial
it back from, what is it, $85 billion a month now to something lower than
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that, the housing market has been dependent in part on very, very low
interest rates. They`ve already ticked up.
What do you expect that`s going to do to the rate of growth in house
prices?
MULRAINE: Well, I think it would slow the rate of growth, but we
still have growth. I think the problem with the housing sector, and the
initial problem wasn t necessarily the fact that rates were high. The
problem was the flow of credit. Banks were unwilling to lend, and people
that were sitting on the sidelines were willing to engage in a sector where
they think that over the next year or so, they would have capital losses.
That has changed. The dynamics in the housing sector has changed and
with prices at a more sustained upward trajectory, I think that would
encourage potential home buyers to move into the market and encourage
financial institution to extent mortgages.
GHARIB: Well, Millan, you`ve been giving us a pretty much an upbeat
report card for the rest of the year. Anything that worries you that could
go wrong in the economy?
MULRAINE: Well, I think the big factor for me is political risk.
And as much as we`ve seen a lot of clarity on the political front with the
tax deal that we had earlier this year and we know for sure that
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sequestration has gone through, I think the next big thing for the markets
and for the economy more generally is what happens in September, October,
when we have to get the budget deal done. If there`s a risk of a
government shut down, then I think that would possibly delay investment and
hiring decision.
Similarly, if we do have the government breach it`s limit, that
ceiling -- hit the debt ceiling without it being raised, I think that would
also increase some volatility in the market.
GHARIB: All right. Lots of good information. So good of you to come
by. Have a happy Fourth of July.
MULRAINE: Thanks for having me.
MATHISEN: Thank you very much.
GHARIB: And that`s Millan Mulraine, economist at TD Securities.
MATHISEN: And one thing many feared would hurt the economy was the
government`s automatic budget cuts, better known as that sequester. And
while the sequester hasn`t had the dire impact so far that many had
predicted, one thing has become clear, the defense sector is starting to
feel the pinch.
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Jane Wells has more.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JANE WELLS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Here is what to
watch for in the defense sector in the quarter ahead:
Pentagon cuts are slowly nipping away at contracts, so expect
companies to update international plans. Raytheon (NYSE:RTN) has said it
thinks exports can reach 30 percent of total sales. United Technology
Sikorsky says it could account for half.
Boeing (NYSE:BA), Lockheed and BAE are competing for multi billion-
dollar jet fighter contracts in Brazil and South Korea.
But Deloitte says, globally, defense budgets are transitioning to
more affordable high tech, software and sensors rather than ships and
tanks. Even so, beware of the naysayers. The last quarter, nearly every
major defense company beat expectations and some even raised guidance.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Jane Wells.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GHARIB: And coming up on the program, we`re going to check out what
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might be in store for stocks and bonds.
But, first, oil right at the psychological $100 level. Will it be an
expensive quarter in the oil business (ph) and what could it mean at the
gas pump?
The outlook coming up next.
(MUSIC)
GHARIB: Oil prices have been hovering right around $100 a barrel for
sometime now and gasoline prices are around $3.50. But with summer driving
and hurricane season upon us, and tensions rising in the Middle East, it`s
worth watching the energy patch in this quarter.
Sharron Epperson explains.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SHARON EPPERSON, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Where is
what to watch for in the energy sector in the quarter ahead: the
fundamentals for oil are bearish. The U.S. has a record level of supply
and that supply may only grow as global demand for oil and refined product
slows. With oil prices under pressure, gasoline price fears may fall by
the wayside over the next month, only to perhaps reappear as we head into
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the middle of hurricane season.
But drivers should be wary that prices can vary widely depending on
where you live.
Meanwhile, natural gas prices could slide if temperatures are below
normal this summer, reducing air conditioning usage and therefore cooling
demand. Energy prices can be just as fickle as the weather.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Sharon Epperson.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MATHISEN: Our next guest expects high oil prices this quarter and
then maybe a turn for the better as the year draws to a close.
He`s John Kilduff, founding partner and oil analyst of Again Capital.
John, welcome. Good to have you here.
JOHN KILDUFF, AGAIN CAPITAL: Good evening.
MATHISEN: We`ve seen turmoil in the Middle East this past week. We
have concerns about China`s slowing economy -- those things ultimately
might push oil in opposite directions. Higher in the case of Middle East
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turmoil, lower in the case of a Chinese economy. So, what am I to think?
KILDUFF: You`ve got the horns of the dilemma really right there
before you. And I think what`s very frustrating for U.S. consumers is --
as Sharon Epperson referenced -- the high level of inventories here in the
United States and the absolute shale boom that we`re seeing, so much that
we`re pushing African barrels that used to come here out to Asia, out to
the very soft market that you referenced.
So, my thesis is that we are nearing a tipping point where the supply
situation will, in fact, overwhelm the worries of the Middle East and other
concerns that have been out there. But it`s not here yet, and it`s down
the road, but I can see a future maybe towards the end of the year,
beginning of next, where that`s the new paradigm, that`s the new dynamic
for the oil market.
GHARIB: But in the near term, this situation in Egypt, what could it
do to supplies and the supplies going through the Suez Canal and all of
that? I mean, what -- how worried should we be about that and what could
it mean for prices?
KILDUFF: More so than we otherwise would because we had outages
persisting now in Libya. The Arab Spring hasn`t gone away. It hasn`t
turned into an Arab summer or fall as we`re seeing in Egypt, as we`re
seeing in Libya and Iraq for that matter. There was a significant bombing
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on Tuesday in Baghdad that reminds us that that production there is very
much hanging in the balance.
So that security premium that we talked about so much over the years,
very much holding up the price in the 90s towards 100 whereas, otherwise
just in the pure fundamentals, particularly with our eye on China, it
should be much lower, in the low 80s, maybe 70s.
MATHISEN: Let`s talk about two oil types of product that are or
basically petroleum product, that are very important to us. Number one is
gasoline and what your forecast is this quarter and as we move towards the
end of the year for the price of gas and then also for natural gas, which
is the main heating fuel in so much of the country.
KILDUFF: Right. Well, since we`re in the heart of driving season
right now, this is the big day. This is where we turn the corner, and peak
gasoline demand is here right now. But I think we`ve paid the high price
point for gasoline. Despite what crude oil is doing right now in its
volatility, gasoline is coming down.
We`re seeing more and more refiners come on line. There was a major
amount of European refinery maintenance that was undertaken. They`re
coming back online. A big refinery in Indiana, Whiting, Indiana, BP poured
billions of dollars into this thing. It`s coming back online. They`re
finally going to see relief in the Midwest.
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And similarly, too, the cheap shale oil that`s been coming out of the
ground all over the place, is getting out to the coast via rail, to
California, to New York, New Jersey refining centers down South. These
barrels are being liberated via rail to the tune of about 1 million barrels
a day by the year.
So, those prices are coming down. I see a national average of as low
as $2.75, maybe $2.50 if we`re lucky come the fall.
MATHISEN: A lot of drivers being happy about that. What about nat
gas?
KILDUFF: We`re not going to see the low price that we saw last year.
The shift away from coal to natural gas is sticking and as we saw last
winter, we have an abundance of natural gas, so much so we didn`t know
where we were going to put it at one point. But just a normal winter
really chewed through those inventories and got them down low.
MATHISEN: Really quickly, what`s the wild card in your forecast?
KILDUFF: The wild card in my forecast has to be -- still the Middle
East. If we lose the Iraqi production, if Libya turns back into a full on
civil war, very, very high oil prices will be with us again, $120 a barrel.
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MATHISEN: Ouch.
KILDUFF: Yes.
MATHISEN: John Kilduff, thanks very much. Have a great Fourth.
KILDUFF: You, too.
MATHISEN: Appreciate you being with us.
GHARIB: Well, one country that uses a lot of energy, as we`ve just
been talking about, China and that demand is expected to increase in the
years ahead. But the world`s second largest economy which was at one time
growing at break neck speed now has hit the brakes.
With that in mind, Eunice Yoon tells what to watch for this quarter
in China.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
EUNICE YOON, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Here`s what to
watch for in China in the quarter ahead:
After slow down in the past few months, everyone is waiting to see if
the economy will weaken further and by how much. People are growing
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increasingly concerned about a credit crunch here. Many are wondering if
China`s financial sector will come under greater strain if the Federal
Reserve tapers its stimulus.
And the U.S. and China are going to be meeting in July. Will the two
large economies be able to reset their frosty relationship?
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Eunice Yoon, in Beijing.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MATHISEN: And coming up, with interest rates on everybody`s mind,
what`s the outlook for stocks and bonds this quarter? That`s next.
(MUSIC)
GHARIB: Billion-dollar deals bound in the entertainment and social
media spaces and Hollywood is betting big again this year. Will the buying
continue over the next three months and will the box office break records?
Julia Boorstin takes a look.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JULIA BOORSTIN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Here is what
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to watch for in the media and social sectors in the quarter ahead:
Expect Hulu to sell for about $1 billion. Whether parent companies
Disney (NYSE:DIS) and News Corp (NASDAQ:NWS) pick the likes of Direct TV or
Peter Tormin will determine who takes on rival Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX).
With the slew of big budget bets, the box office is on track to
rebound from winter decline, putting studios on track to beat last year`s
box office record.
And at Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) watch, Instagram on the heels of its
video launch. The big question is when ads will launch?
And expect more social acquisition after Yahoo`s billion-dollar
purchase of Tumblr and Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) of WAZE, Foursquare and What`s
App are in the spotlight.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Julia Boorstin.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MATHISEN: And that is the perfect pivot point for us to go to Jon
Fortt, to give us his outlook for technology this quarter.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
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JON FORTT, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Here is what to
look for in the tech sector in the quarter ahead:
First of all, supply chain. Expect lots of rumors to move stocks
with large screens from the likes of Sharp or Samsung, that could be
heading to Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) or others in the TV space.
Also, look for back-to-school numbers particularly in PCs. This is a
chance for Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) to show that the
initial poor numbers this year can be turned around.
And, finally, we have tablets and the like for the holiday season.
Expecting in September, new iPads, iPhones and Kindles.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Jon Fortt.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GHARIB: Well, it`s been an excellent year so far for stock
investors. Can they count on a strong second half?
Hugh Johnson joins us now. He`s the chairman and chief investment
officer at Hugh Johnson Advisors.
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Hugh, great to see you.
So, straight to the main question. Is the second half going to be as
good as the first?
HUGH JOHNSON, CHAIRMAN & CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER: It`s hard to
imagine that you could get another half in the same year that was as good
as the first year, first part of this year. Obviously, we had a rise in
stock prices, that`s not a big surprise. A rise in interest rates, that`s
not a big surprise.
But the magnitude in the first half was really spectacular. No, I
think the trade off unfortunately is that we`ve got a big move in the stock
market. It`s become a little bit overvalued. So, in the second half of
the year, although stocks could continue to rise, you`re not going to get
anything that looks like the first half.
So, let`s call it good but not great and maybe even a modest
correction as we move through the third -- the third quarter of this year.
MATHISEN: If I generally have a 50/50 stock bond mix in my
portfolio, Hugh, where should I be now? Should I be at 50/50, a little
over weight stocks? Or what?
JOHNSON: I think one of the most important points, Tyler, now is
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that the bull market in bonds is behind us. We`ve probably started a bear
market in bonds. Bonds are not the place to be. We`re still in a bull
market in stocks. So, stocks are going to be the place to be. Bonds are
not going to be the place to be if you have 50/50 portfolio.
I would have at least 57.5 or 60, something like that percent of your
portfolio in stocks and the balance and bonds. And in the bond part of the
portfolio, make sure you keep the duration short. The stock part of the
portfolio is going to perform the best between now and the end of the year
and particularly between now and the end of 2014.
Look for the returns from the stock market to be roughly the 6
percent level through 2014 and maybe minus 1.5 percent in the bond market
as a guest.
GHARIB: OK. So, let s talk a little bit about strategy, Hugh. You
said that there still could be a correction in this third quarter.
JOHNSON: Yes.
GHARIB: So should investors buy when those corrections are happening
and scaled back in the rallies? What are you telling investors to do?
JOHNSON: Well, you know, I don`t like to call it a short-term swing,
Susie, but I think that the market is about 2 percent to 4 percent
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overvalued. What I`d like to do as I`d like to as an entry point, I`d like
to be buying at a lower level, a cheaper, better undervalued level.
So, I`m saying yes, you want to have that 57.5 percent in the stock
market, but drag your feet if you`re going to be adding to the equity
component of your portfolio simply because one were overvalued. And common
sense alone says after the first half of this year, you`re bound to get a
correction and maybe even a sharp correction along the way.
My guess is in the current quarter of the third quarter. So, I`m
saying, buy but drag your feet before you enter.
MATHISEN: You know, Hugh, I have a vision with a lot of viewer
sitting at home with a hot dog in one hand and a pencil in the other, and
they`re going to want to use that pencil to write down some stock choices
that you`d be comfortable with owning in the second half of the year. Give
me a couple names.
JOHNSON: Well, you want to go with what`s been working. Consumer
discretionary stocks have been working, couple of names that I own and all
our clients own, Coach (NYSE:COH) (ph), Disney (NYSE:DIS), in that sector,
the financial sector has been on fire. I think their margins are going to
expand. First Republic, Fifth Third, two good financial names.
And the healthcare sector has been doing extraordinarily well. A
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good place to buy, price earnings ratio is low, good dividend yields, safe
place to play the healthcare sector and drugs. Take a look at pharma,
Merck (NYSE:MRK) and Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), in that sector.
So, those are some names. But there are a lot of names out there.
And again, drag your feet. Buy a little now and wait for that so-called
correction that I think will be coming and then buy some more.
GHARIB: Real quickly, on Friday, that important jobs report comes
out, what do you think that`s going to do for the market?
JOHNSON: Well, that`s pretty important, because that`s going to get
everybody talking about what`s going to be the impact of jobs numbers on
Federal Reserve policy. At what point does the Federal Reserve begin to
taper?
I think the numbers are going to be about 165,000. I don`t think
that`s going to be enough to inspire or encourager the Federal Reserve to
even talk or think about tapering or reducing their quantitative buying or
stimulus at this juncture. It`s when we get in the fall, when we get in
September, October, November, December, time period that I think you`re
going to see numbers around 200,000 plus in job growth. And that`s when
the Federal Reserve is going to be seriously considering reducing their
buying or their stimulus.
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GHARIB: OK.
JOHNSON: And, of course, it depends on the inflation numbers, as you
know.
GHARIB: Hugh, great to see you. Thank you so much. Enjoy the
holiday.
JOHNSON: My pleasure.
GHARIB: Hugh Johnson, chairman and chief investment officer at Hugh
Johnson Advisors.
MATHISEN: And finally tonight, it is the Fourth of July and many
people plan to get away and made it a long weekend. But although AAA
expects fewer cars on the road this weekend, it still sees nearly 41
million people traveling. That`s a good start to the summer season for the
travel business.
And Simon Hobbs tells us what else to expect for hotels, cruises and
the like.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SIMON HOBBS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Here is what to
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watch for in the travel and leisure sector in the quarter ahead:
Watch if hotels are able to achieve not just the near record 70
percent occupancy that`s being forecast, but if they are also able to raise
prices and therefore be substantially more profitable.
For hotel owners, (INAUDIBLE), watch for short interest and sharp
share price moves on changes to Fed policy and yields in the bond markets.
Cruise lines are likely continue to slash prices in order to fill
ships in response to their spring of mishaps.
And, finally, watch the advertising war between the online travel
agencies like Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE) and Priceline for both the cost and the
payoffs, especially with the recent big meta search takeovers, mainly
Kayak.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Simon Hobbs.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GHARIB: And that is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for us. Have a great
Fourth of July. I`m Susie Gharib. Thanks for watching.
MATHISEN: And thanks from me as well. I`m Tyler Mathisen. Have a
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great Fourth of July. We`ll see you here tomorrow for the big jobs report.
END
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