NextGen and Its Impact on Performance
Worldwide Symposium on Performance of the Air Navigation System
ICAOMontreal, Quebec, Canada
March 26-30, 2007
Victoria CoxUS Federal Aviation AdministrationAir Traffic Operations,Vice President of Operations Planning
It’s More Than Just the Movement of People and Goods
• Aviation and Aerospace Aviation and Aerospace represent 5.5% of U.S. represent 5.5% of U.S. GDPGDP
• If expanded to include If expanded to include related industries, related industries, it’s 9% of U.S. GDP it’s 9% of U.S. GDP
• Contributes 10 million Contributes 10 million jobs to our economyjobs to our economy
2025 NextGen Concept
•Net-Enabled Information Access
•Performance-Based Services
•Weather-Assimilated Decision Making
•Layered, Adaptive Security
•Broad-Area Precision Navigation
•Trajectory-Based Aircraft Operations
•“Equivalent Visual” Operations
•“Super Density” Operations
Key CapabilitiesFor full version, see: www.jpdo.aero
Cost of Not Moving to NextGen
Demand by YearDemand by Year
2004 2014 2024 203455,000
75,000
95,000
115,000
135,000
155,000
175,000
Flig
hts
Per
Day
$40 BillionAnnual
Economic Loss
$100 BillionAnnual
Economic Loss
UnconsComm
OEP H&S
No Change
Unconstrained Commercial Demand (TAF Growth) OEP H&S Capacity Estimate No Change Capacity Demand
Future Demand on the NAS
2004 20251X
~3X
Significant Alternate Shift• Increase passengers per flight • A380, reverse RJ trend
20??
~2X
Not to scale
Terminal A
rea Forecast (TAF) G
rowth ProjectionTAF G
rowth
Ratio
s, Hig
her Rate
TAF Growth Ratios, Lower Rate
2014
Biz shift• 2% shift to micro jets
Flights 1.4-3X
Boeing Forecast3X
2.4X
Continue existing Biz shift• Smaller aircraft, more airports
En
pla
nem
en
t D
eman
d
TAF yields passenger growth of 1.8-2.4X in 2025
2025 NextGen Capabilities:Capacity Impacts
NextGen Capabilities
Current
Current
Airspace Capacity
Bad Wx Good Wx
Current
Current
Airport Capacity
Good Wx Bad Wx
“Super Density” Airport Operations
1.2X – 1.4X
Capacity Increase
Weather Information in Decision Loops
“Equivalent Visual” Operations
Maximize use of
Available Airspace
Nearly match
Good Wx CapacityAircraft
Trajectory-Based Ops
Performance-Based Services
2X – 4X Capacity Increase
Distributed Airport
Operations*
And more… And
more…
Net-Enabled Information Access
Broad Area Precision Navigation
*For Distributed Airport Operations, benefits are modeled by shifting traffic (Bizshift) to selected regional airports surrounding the 35 OEP airports
NextGen Performance: Dual Focus
• Air Traffic Management– Improved Performance-based services
• Area Navigation (RNAV)• Required Navigation Performance (RNP)• Continuous Descent Approach (CDA)• Improved Information Availability (SWIM)• Improved weather prediction availability and
coordinated weather picture
• Aircraft and Operator Performance– Improved aircraft performance
• Navigation and aircraft flight performance• Improved noise and emissions performance
– Provide better decision quality data to pilots and air traffic controllers to enable higher-density operations with high level of safety
NextGen Performance: Dual Focus
Monitoring Performance against NextGen Targets
JPDO Develops NextGenPerformance Assessment
of Concepts – Sets Targets
AgencyDevelops Near-TermPerformance Goals
Enterprise Architecture:
Performance Reference Model
AgencyExecutes Investments Monitors Performance
Flight Plan
OEP
Enterprise Architecture
JPDO ManagesOutcomes against Plan
Portfolio Management
Adjust Plan
National PlanSets NextGen Objectives
Demonstrated Metrics Experience
ATO Dashboard
The Mountain Chart30% Increase in Effective Capacity by 2013
Mountain Chart reflects OEP v8.0 capacity, TAF 2005 demand growth, and March 2006 schedules
Increase in
Eff
ecti
ve C
ap
acit
y
(14 M
inu
tes o
f D
ela
y p
er F
lig
ht)
ATL Depeaking
TMA w/RNAV Airspace & Procedures
5 Runways Including ATL, + Req’d Airspace &
Technology Improvements
3 Runways Including ORD, + Req’d Airspace &
Technology Improvements
Safe Flight 21
Performance MetricsResults to Date
July 2004
Safe Flight 21
Performance MetricsResults to Date
July 2004
Safe Flight 21
Performance MetricsResults to Date
July 2004
Enabling Infrastructure to Support NextGen Capabilities
OEP Solution Sets
OEP Solution Sets
Initiate Trajectory Based Operations
Increase Arrivals/Departures at High Density Airports
Increase Flexibility in the Terminal Environment
Improve Collaborative ATM
Reduce Weather Impact
Increase Safety, Security, and
Environmental Performance
Transform Facilities
Initiate Trajectory Based Operations
Increase Arrivals/Departures at High Density Airports
Increase Flexibility in the Terminal Environment
Improve Collaborative ATM
Reduce Weather Impact
Increase Safety, Security, and
Environmental Performance
Transform Facilities
ERAM
STARS/CARTS
ADS-B
TMA
TFM-M
SWIM
DATA Comm
Precision Navigation
Network Enabled Weather
ERAM
STARS/CARTS
ADS-B
TMA
TFM-M
SWIM
DATA Comm
Precision Navigation
Network Enabled Weather
Current ProgramsCurrent Programs Key Near-Term Investments Key Near-Term Investments
ERAM EnhancementsAutomated Problem Resolution
Concept DemonstrationsTrajectory Based Ops/High Density
Infrastructure –Trajectory Based Ops
Time Based Metering
TFM-M EnhancementsTime-Based Metering
ERAM EnhancementsAutomated Problem Resolution
Concept DemonstrationsTrajectory Based Ops/High Density
Infrastructure –Trajectory Based Ops
Time Based Metering
TFM-M EnhancementsTime-Based Metering
RNP/RNAV ExpansionPrecise Navigation
Data CommunicationsFlight Intent Downlink
ADS-BAircraft Separation
SWIM/Net-Enabled WeatherNet-Centric Information Sharing
RNP/RNAV ExpansionPrecise Navigation
Data CommunicationsFlight Intent Downlink
ADS-BAircraft Separation
SWIM/Net-Enabled WeatherNet-Centric Information Sharing