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Setting the frame: sustainable dredging
and climate change
Berlin
Cochin
PotsdamHyderabad
Mumbai
Jürgen P. Kropp
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Climate Change & Development
www.pik-potsdam.de/nsp
Amazon drought
2005
Soil Erosion Morocco 2006
Cyclon Nargis/Myanmar
2008Sea Level Fiji 2008
Machu Picchu 2011
New Delhi
Infrastructure 2008
Hyderabad 2010
Sahel Zone/Africa
European drought 2003
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What are the main known threats from Climate Change to the coasts (ecosystems, infrastructures)?
Could forces of nature be used in shaping Climate Change Adaptation measures?
Would the ecosystem’s approach be applicable in Climate Change adaptation measures for coastal, estuarine and fluvial environments?
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Climate Change
&
Sea Level Rise
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NASA GISS
The ongoing threat of global warming
Each of the last three decades has been
successively warmer than any preceding
decade since 1850.
The evidence for human influence has grown since AR4. It is extremely likely [i.e. 95% certainty] that
human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since 1950.
IPCC AR 5, Summary for Policymakers, 2013
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Drivers of Sea-Level Rise in Europe
Isostatic land up-/downlift
Melting of inland glaciers
Approx. 50% (eustatic)
Thermal Expansion
Approx. 50% (steric)
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Root cause of warming: It is Mankind!
IPCC 2013
Yellow panels: land surface temperatureWhite panels: sea ice extent
IPCC AR5 WGI: Physical Science Basis (2013)
Steric SLR
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Global Sea-Level Rise: Topex/Poseidon/Jason measurements
Trend: 3.3mm/yr
After: Cavenaze & Nerem 2004U. Colorado 2015
The crux: SLR is globally notequally distributed
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Sea level m
Today
Oligocene30 MJ BP
50
100
Pliocene3 MJ BP
1510
-100
-50
20
Glacial Maximum30 kJ BP
5
Global average T, °C
-150
Equilibrium2x CO2, 3-4 °C
after Archer 2006
Sea level and temperature in an equilibrium
Response time on warming stimulus of Cryo-/hydrosphere:200-2500 yrs
Rates are different:20-8 kyrs BP: 10mm/yrToday: 3.4mm/yr
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1979
Arctic Sea Ice Decline
2010
(Notz 2010 after Stroeve et al. 2007 GRL)
-49% in comparison to the 80ties
(U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center)
A warming stimulus in the cryo-and hydrosphere is not reversableon a short to mid-term time scale
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Ice sheet loss: Greenland/Antarctica
~ 50/50Greenland/Antarctica
After: Rignot et al. (2011)
Irreversible loss of Greenland Ice sheet
could start at +1.6°C
Robinson et al. 2012
8 July 2012
12 July 2012
Nicolo E. DiGirolamo, SSAI/NASA
GSFC, and Jesse Allen, NASA Earth
Observatory 2012
Thurface
thawing
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SA Western Coast “Water Towers” are disappearing:
Shrunk at unprecedented rate since the 70ties: 30-50%Upward moving of frost border
EquadorPeru
Bolivia
Sample: 50% of all glacier`s in SA Andes
Rabatel et al. 2013,
Cryosphere
Rio Rimac:
streamflow, mid-term increase, long-term
decrease.
window of opportunity for development of a
city vision
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On the long run: land-
loss, retreat, etc. are
unavoidable, but…….
on the short run it
depends, i.e. willingness
to pay, accepted risk
level, etc.
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Coastlines in Lower Saxony/Germany & Eastern Netherlands: 0-2000AD
Source: Behre 1999
Um 1500
~25cm per 100yrs
Defence of coastlines:
Coastal changes are normal1500 msl was lower than today: maladaptationFeasible, but not on the long runDepends on willingness to pay
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Observed
challenges and
things to come...
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Underestimated the Risk of Sea- Level Rise:
Geo-data show larger and faster increases, the crux: response time
Rahmstorf 2010 Nature Reports
IPCC AR52013
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Dredging activities are often disputed in public and policy
Reasons:
Negative side effects, e.g. changing natural habits, instable dikes, changing streamdynamics, economic benefitsunclear,....
Positive effects: higher protection level, constant and/or increased employment opportunities, active ecosystem management,.....
Facts anyway:Any kind of dredging/coastal protection are buy time optionsEIA is necessary in any case – including CBA
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Costs for beach norishment Sylt Island
Approx. 182,5 mln €/40 yrs2009-2012: 26,2 mln €
(pers. Comm.)
Coastal protection and safeguarding investmentsis expensive; examples from Vietnam, Netherlands, Germany
Construction costs:0.9 to 29.2 mln US$ per meter rise in height, per km length (linear) – Vietnam-Netherlands
Maintenance costs: 0.03 mln in Vietnam to 0.14 mln US$ in the Netherlands
(after Hillen et al. 2010, Hillen 2008, AFPM, 2006)
Deepening of river Elbe between mouth andHamburg by 1.50m: 380-600 mln €
(pers. Comm.)
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Adapting to a 100yr event, business as usual, 2007 GDP
EU sea level rise costs
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110
Time point were costs of BAU overcome costs of ADP
% G
DP
in a
dap
tatio
n c
ost
s
% of GDP in
avoided costs
2%
3%
5%
NE
IR
SE
LV
GR
BD
RO
PL
I
DK
UK
P
F
Time point where costs of Business as Usual overcome costs of Adapting to 100 years
% o
f G
DP in a
dapta
tion c
ost
s
Costa/Tekken/Kropp (2009)
mainly
maintainance
High adaptation costs,
earlier pay-off
compared to DK
Small adaptation
investments and
high avoided costsHigh adaptation
costs and late pay-
off
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Assessing Risks & Costs Adequately
after Schaeffer et al. (2012)WB, Turn down the Heat (2013)
after Böttle/Rybski/Kropp (2015)
Difference betweenBAU & strong pledges 20-40cm in 2100
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Relative stage-damage functions for several land uses (Huizinga, JRC, 2007): Exposed values (Huizinga, JRC, 2007):
x
......
x =
Economic scaling based on GDP data
(Huizinga, JRC, 2007):
Country-specific damage functions
for various land uses [€/m2]
Land Use Damage Functions
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Damage functions for 140 European Coastal Cities (SEA-DAM)
1
2
3Example: Bilbao
flood protection?
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Urban cluster
Flood map
Urban flood map
Required protection
line for a given
protection level
Example
of Riga
Böttle/Rybski/Costa/Kropp (2015)
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The „sand thieves“
2012, Germany mined 235 million tons of sand and gravel, with 95 percent of it going to the construction industry
UNEP estimates global consumption at an average of 40 bn to/year, with close to 30 bn tons for concrete
In poor countries beaches become victims of construction boom, e.g. Cape Verde, Morocco, India (“sand mafia”)
Sand is the most widely consumed natural resource on the planet after fresh water.
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The long run: Central Europe
"An End to Global Warming“, L.O. Williams, Elsevier 2002
*) maximal value in case of thermal equilibrium
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Thank you very much
for your attention
Jürgen P. KroppDeputy-Chair Research Domain 2 – Climate Impacts and Vulnerability
Head Research Area: Climate Change & Development
http://www.pik-potsdam.de/nsp
+49 331288 – 2526 or 2664