Download - New Realities of Geopolitics
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New Realities of Geopolitics
Andrew Trabulsi September 2015
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Did global terrorist attacks increase or decrease "after the U.S. launched its global War on Terror?
Global Terrorist Attacks 1968 - 2014
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1800019
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Attacks per year
Linear (Attacks per year)
Sources: RAND Database of Worldwide Terrorist Incidents; National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, Global Terrorism Database 3
“[T]he deliberate creation and exploitation of fear through violence or the threat of violence in pursuit of polit ical change.” – Bruce Hoffman
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• Violence or the threat of violence • Calculated to create fear and alarm • Intended to coerce certain actions • Motive must include a polit ical objective • Generally directed against civi l ian targets • Can be a group or an individual
Attacks include: suicide missions, hijackings, armed attacks, bombings, kidnappings, firearms, explosives, chemical agents, knives, vehicles.
Terrorism defined
Source: RAND Database of Worldwide Terrorist Incidents
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Has cocaine trafficking into the United States increased or decreased since the start of the "
War on Drugs?
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U.S. cocaine seizures 1980 - 2013
Source: UNODC, World Drug Report 2014
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25,000
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225,000 19
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Cocaine seizures in U.S. (kg)
Linear (Cocaine seizures in U.S. (kg))
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From 2008 to 2012 which country had more than twice as many drug-related homicides as the number of people (military
and civilian) killed in Iraq and Afghanistan combined? ""
Mexico (121,669) "Iraq and Afghanistan (about 55,000)
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What does this mean for the future of governance?
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Non-state actors, across a range of geographies, challenge and supplant states, markets, and "
existing social institutions in periods of "turbulence, turmoil, and transition.
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Warlord entrepreneurs: maestros of global black markets
The Rise of the Warlord Entrepreneur
• Between 3.6 percent and 27 percent global GDP (US$2.5 T and US$19.5 T annually) • Money laundering: 2-5 percent global GDP • Human trafficking: 27 million people • Environmental crimes: US$23 B annually
Source: UNODC
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Over time, the lines between black, grey, and white markets blur, and warlord enterprises become
indistinguishable from other forms of organization including the state itself.
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Evolution across five stages
I. Experimentation II. Institutionalization III. Diversification IV. Regionalization V. Globalization
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Main trafficking flows of opiates
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Islamic State Sanctuary July 2014
Source: Institute for the Study of War
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Islamic State Sanctuary June 2015
Source: Institute for the Study of War
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Five New Realities
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Reality #1:��
International security is more complex than it ever has been�
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Reality #2:��
States are not what they once were
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Reality #3:��
Non-states are everything that states are not�
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Reality #4:��
The distinction between foreign and domestic security is gone�
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Reality #5:��
Globalization has dark sides�
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Concluding Remarks
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Thank you!