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New Principles for Economic Success in the Age of Biocapacity Constraints
Mathis Wackernagel, Ph.D. STOA Lecture – November 29, 2011
A Euro Crisis … or a Resource Crisis?
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Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors
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Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors
Global Footprint--------------------------- = 1.5Global Biocapacity
“today”
4
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The Ecological Footprint
CARBON footprint
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Biocapacity:How much
bioproductive area is available to us?
Ecological Footprint:How much bioproductive
area do we demand?
Accounting Framework for Ecological Services
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The Basic Equation
Amount per yearYield = -------------------------
Area
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Amount per yearArea = -------------------------
Yield
Translate area from ha into global ha…
The Basic Equation
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Ecological Footprintper person
Biocapacity per person
Italy
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Composition of Italy’s Biocapacity Deficit
Ecological Footprintper person
Italy
Biocapacity per person
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Commodity prices (WB index)Source: World Bank – pink sheet
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x
World Commodity Prices
=
Cost of Biocapacity Deficit
Biocapacity DeficitItaly
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Italy’s Biocapacity Deficit
Cost of Italy’s Biocapacity Deficit (WMP of all that cannot be renewed within Italy)
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Italy’s GDP per person
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Italy’s Biocapacity Deficit
Change in Italian’s relative income
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0
1E-10
2E-10
3E-10
4E-10
5E-10
6E-10
7E-10
8E-10
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
RATI
O in
GN
I per
capi
ta t
o w
orld
tot
al(in
con
stan
t 20
00 U
S$)
Italian's share in world income
Italian's relative income
world average
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Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors in Europe Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity PER CAPITA,1961-2005
HU
DKATDE
ES
RO
SECH
IT
PT
NL
FR
PO
GR
RU
BE
FI
UK
IR
SK
CZ
BY
RS UA 15
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0
2E-10
4E-10
6E-10
8E-10
1E-09
1.2E-09
1.4E-09
1.6E-09
1.8E-09
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
RATI
O in
GN
I per
capi
ta t
o w
orld
tot
al(in
con
stan
t 20
00 U
S$)
American's share in world income
American's relative income
world average
0
1E-10
2E-10
3E-10
4E-10
5E-10
6E-10
7E-10
8E-10
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
RATI
O in
GN
I per
capi
ta t
o w
orld
tot
al(in
con
stan
t 20
00 U
S$)
Italian's share in world income
italian's relative income
world average
0
1E-10
2E-10
3E-10
4E-10
5E-10
6E-10
7E-10
8E-10
9E-10
1E-09
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
RATI
O in
GN
I per
capi
ta t
o w
orld
tot
al(in
con
stan
t 20
00 U
S$)
German's share in world income
German's relative income
world average
0
5E-11
1E-10
1.5E-10
2E-10
2.5E-10
3E-10
3.5E-10
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
RATI
O in
GN
I per
capi
ta t
o w
orld
tot
al(in
con
stan
t 20
00 U
S$)
Chinese's share in world income
Chinese's relative income
world average
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Costs of resources Ecuador’s residents consume but Ecuador’s ecosystems cannot regenerate
(at world market price)
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United Kingdom
Mexico
IndiaChina
World
United States of America
Germany France
Ecuador
Italy
Switzerland
GreeceSpainPortugal
Denmark
$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
GN
I per resident in US Dollars (2000))
Biocapacity Deficit or Biocapacity Remainder (gha/ cap)
Factory world…
or?
Biocapacity Deficit and Absolute Income (1980 – 2007)
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United Kingdom
Mexico
IndiaChina
World
United States of America
Germany France
Ecuador
Italy
Switzerland
GreeceSpain
Portugal
Denmark
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Fraction of world total G
NI held by average resident
(billionths)
Biocapacity Deficit or Biocapacity Remainder (gha/ cap)
…global auction?
Biocapacity Deficit and Global Income Share (1980 – 2007)
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Insights• Downward escalator of resource costs
outpaces economies’ ability to run upwards.
• Euro crisis is a symptom of a deepening resource crunch.
• Turning around resource trends is a necessary condition for Europe’s economy to recover. 22
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New principles• Nature has a budget. Do you know
how much biocapacity you have? and how much you use?
• Biocapacity is the currency of the 21st century. Blindness to biocapacity budget costs lives & opportunities.
• Self-interest for countries and cities to act is overwhelming