NEPOOL Participant’s Meeting
Boston, MA
May 7, 2004
Stephen G. WhitleySenior Vice President & COO
2
• System Operations• Market Operations• Day-ahead Market – April 19, 2004• Electric and Gas Wholesale
Initiative• Summer Capacity• Back-Up Detail
Agenda
3
System Operations
4
Operations Highlights
• Boston & Hartford Weather Pattern: – April 2004 had normal to above normal temperatures. The
precipitation was near record highs. Most areas doubled the amount of normal precipitation.
• Peak load of 17,884 MW at 20:00 hours on April 1, 2004.• During April:
– NPCC Shared Activation of Reserve Events:• April 6 L/O Bruce G8 @821 MW• April 11 L/O Mystic #9 @600
MW
5
Market Operations
6
Day–Ahead & Real-Time Prices, ISO Hub:
7
Day-Ahead–LMP Average by Zone & Hub:
April 1, 2004 to April 23, 2004
NOTE: Corrected Day-Ahead LMPs for April 19 have been used.
(-9.84)
(-2.61)(1.27) (0.52) (-1.30)
(-2.88)(0.15)
(-1.86)
8
97.4%
Real-Time-LMP Average by Zone & Hub:
April 1, 2004 to April 23, 2004
(-6.66)(-2.00) (0.08)
(0.80)(-1.12)
(-2.80)(0.13) (-1.63)
(-7.88)(-2.41)
(0.60) (0.88)(-2.93)(-1.20) (0.10)
(-1.95)
9
Day - Ahead Market vs. Forecast Load
Day Ahead Market Demand Cleared vs. Forecast Load (%)
98 100 101
020406080
100120
February March April
Feb & March represent data for full month. April data represents April 1-23, 2004
Day Ahead Market Generation Cleared vs. Forecast Load (%)
979793
0
20
40
60
80
100
February March April
Feb & March represent data for full month. April data represents April 1-23, 2004
10
Day - Ahead LMPDAM LMP Through April 23, 2004 Revised
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
04/0
1/20
04 0
1
04/0
3/20
04 0
1
04/0
5/20
04 0
2
04/0
7/20
04 0
2
04/0
9/20
04 0
2
04/11
/200
4 02
04/1
3/20
04 0
2
04/1
5/20
04 0
2
04/1
7/20
04 0
2
04/1
9/20
04 0
2
04/2
1/20
04 0
2
04/2
3/20
04 0
2
Day
$/M
Wh
INTERNAL_HUB CONNECTICUT MAINE NEMASSBOST NEWHAMPSHIRE RHODEISLAND SEMASS VERMONT WCMASS
CONSTRAINT DUE TO PV20 SCHEDULED OOS FOR MAINTENANCE.
CONSTRAINT DUE TO LOAD AND GENERATION PATTERN WITH 379 TERMINAL OOS FROM 4/8/04-4/10/04.
CONSTRAINT DUE TO LOAD AND GENERATION PATTERN.
CONSTRAINT DUE TO LOAD AND GENERATION PATTERN WITH LINE OOS FROM 4/19/04-4/21/04.
K22 LINE CONSTRAINED DUE TO LOSS
OF K21 LINE. ADDITONALLY, A UNIT
WAS OFF LINE AND 381 LINE OUT OF
SERVICE.
11
Real - Time LMP
Real-Time LMP Through April 23, 2004
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
04/0
1/20
04 0
1
04/0
3/20
04 0
1
04/0
5/20
04 0
2
04/0
7/20
04 0
2
04/0
9/20
04 0
2
04/11
/200
4 02
04/1
3/20
04 0
2
04/1
5/20
04 0
2
04/1
7/20
04 0
2
04/1
9/20
04 0
2
04/2
1/20
04 0
2
04/2
3/20
04 0
2
Day
$/M
Wh
INTERNAL_HUB CONNECTICUT MAINE NEMASSBOST NEWHAMPSHIRE RHODEISLAND SEMASS VERMONT WCMASS
TIGHT CAPACITY CONDITIONS IN HE
08 DURING MORNING LOAD
PICKUP
TIGHT CAPACITY CONDITIONS
DURING PEAK LOAD PERIOD. LOADS
RAN OVER FORECAST BY 800
MW FOR HE 20.
TIGHT CAPACITY CONDITIONS DURING THE
PEAK LOAD PERIOD.
APPROACHING MINIMUM GENERATION EMERGENCY
CONDITIONS IN HE 04.
12
Settlement Data – Real - Time & Balancing Market
Percentage of Real-Time Load Fully Hedged Through ISO-NE
Settlement System*
73%
75%77%
75%75%
71%71%71%71%
73%
73%
71%72%
73%72%
66%
70%
73%73%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
Nov-0
1 - O
ct-0
2
Nov-0
2
Dec-0
2
Jan-
03
Feb-0
3
Mar
-03
Apr-0
3
May
-03
Jun-
03
Jul-0
3
Aug-0
3
Sep-0
3
Oct-0
3
Nov-0
3
Dec-0
3
Jan-
04
Feb-0
4
Mar
-04
Apr-0
4
Month
% R
T L
oad
Fu
lly
Hed
ged
NOTE: REPRESENTS APRIL 1 - 24, 2004 DATA
* Post-SMD data ignores intra-pool LMP differences
13
Day-ahead Market – April 19, 2004
14
Summary of Event
• The Day-Ahead (DA) Energy Market for Monday, April 19 incorrectly modeled two transmission outages in the VT/NH area leading to incorrect results affecting NH, VT and West Central MA.
• The DA Market team detected unusual results and delayed the closing to investigate: DA Market and System Operations outage scheduling
personnel did not detect the problem in the allotted timeframe.
• Data Problems were identified the following day: Database included two specific outages modeled to
occursimultaneously due to delay in completing one of them: and,
Incorrect breaker numbers for scheduled outage at a substation.
15
Timeline of Actions to Correct Errors
Advised Market Participants of Problem April 19 & 21
Advised State and Federal Regulators April 20 & 21
Met with NEPOOL Markets Committee April 22
Notice of Intent to Correct the Results April 27 and Rule Changes Proposed
Teleconference Seeking Input to April 29 Proposed Rule Changes
Filed an Explanation of Problem and April 30 Proposed Rule Changes with FERC
Published Corrected Results May 3
16
• Modify internal and external business processes to improve outage scheduler program.
• Add on-site management/senior engineer coverage for the weekend.
• Modify protocols to ensure more timely internal and external communications of potential problems.
Summary of Recommendations
17
Electric and Gas Wholesale Initiative
18
• Timeline– Define problem & key issues -
Complete– Publish Interim ISO-NE Cold Snap Report - May
7– Prioritize issues & brainstorm solution sets
- May– Present range of solutions w/stakeholders - June – Finalize set of recommendations - June– 30 day public comment period - July– Publish final ISO-NE Cold Snap Report -
August– FERC Filings - August– Implement changes - Fall 2004
Electric and Gas Wholesale Initiative
19
Summer Capacity
20
Summer 2004 Capacity Assessment
Conditions for Week of Lowest Operable Capacity MarginWeek beginning June 5th
MW
Projected Peak (50/50) 25,735
Operating Reserve Required 1,700
Total Operable Cap. Required 27,435
Projected Capacity 31,430
Assumed Outages 4,000
Total Capacity 27,430
Operable Capacity Margin - 5
21
Summer 2004 Capacity
AssessmentWe e k Be gin n in g, S atu rd ay
Year M onth Day
Installed Seasonal Claimed
C apability (SCC)
[Note 1]
Interchange (NY PP, NB, HQ, Highgate,
Block Load)
Note
N ew Generat ion
[N ote 2]
De-listed ICAP
Resources [Note 3]
Net Capac ity [Note 4]
Peak Load Exposure [Note 5]
Operat ing Reserve
R equirem ent [Note 6]
Total Known Maintenance
Allowance for
Unpl anned Outages [Note 7]
Total Capac ity
Operable Capac ity
Margin (+ /-)
Extent of OP 4 Act ions That May b e Necessary (OP 4 Ac t ions up to and
inc luding) [Note 8](M W ) (M W ) (M W ) (M W ) (MW ) (M W ) (M W ) (MW ) (M W ) (M W ) (MW )
2004 June 5 30,675 450 300 - 31,430 25,735 1,700 1,200 2,800 27,430 (10) Action 5 12 30,675 450 300 - 31,430 25,735 1,700 700 2,800 27,930 500 19 30,675 450 300 - 31,430 25,735 1,700 500 2,800 28,130 700 26 30,675 450 300 - 31,430 25,735 1,700 500 2,800 28,130 700
2004 July 3 30,638 450 300 - 31,390 25,735 1,700 100 2,100 29,190 1,760 10 30,638 450 300 - 31,390 25,735 1,700 100 2,100 29,190 1,760 17 30,638 450 300 - 31,390 25,735 1,700 100 2,100 29,190 1,760 24 30,638 450 300 - 31,390 25,735 1,700 100 2,100 29,190 1,760 31 30,638 450 300 - 31,390 25,735 1,700 100 2,100 29,190 1,760
2004 August 7 30,638 450 300 - 31,390 25,735 1,700 100 2,100 29,190 1,760 14 30,638 450 300 - 31,390 25,735 1,700 100 2,100 29,190 1,760 21 30,638 450 300 - 31,390 25,735 1,700 100 2,100 29,190 1,760 28 30,638 450 300 - 31,390 25,735 1,700 400 2,100 28,890 1,460
2004 September 4 30,638 450 300 - 31,390 23,666 1,700 400 2,100 28,890 3,520 11 30,638 450 300 - 31,390 22,387 1,700 1,000 2,100 28,290 4,200 18 30,638 450 300 - 31,390 22,047 1,700 1,900 2,100 27,390 3,640 25 30,638 450 300 - 31,390 21,962 1,700 1,300 2,100 27,990 4,330
Notes : Please note that the inform ation contained within the C apacity Analysis is a determ inis tic pro jection of s ystem conditions which could m aterialize during any giv en week of the year.1 . Ins ta lled C apability per May 1, 2004 SC C Repor t. The O perable Capability does not reflect possib le transm iss ion cons train ts w ith in the NEPOOL system .2. New Generation information inc ludes 1) generation recently com mercia l but not yet reflec ted in the NEPOO L SC C Report totals used in the Ins ta lled C apability Column,
and 2) future generation as as sum ed by ISO-NE Planning D epartm ent. Th is value is rounded to the nearest hundred.3. De-lis ted ICAP quantities are on ly known w ith c er ta inty in the c urrent m onth. This num ber is ad justed when a de listed generator is out on maintenanc e to avoid double counting.4. Net Capacity = (SC C) + (In terc hange) + (New Generation) - (D e- listed IC AP R esourc es ). In this equation, the SCC , Interchange and De- listed IC AP values are rounded to
the nearest ten and New Generation is rounded to the nearest hundred.5. Peak Load Expos ure reflec ts va lues published in the April 2004 C ELT R eport. 6. Operating Reserve Requirem ent based on the firs t contingenc y (Generator at 1160 MW ) plus 1/2 the second contingenc y (Generator at 1145 MW ).7. Allow ance for Unplanned O utages inc ludes: forced outages and m aintenance outages s cheduled less than 14 days in advance.8. Relief from cer ta in OP 4 Actions varies , depending on s ystem c onditions.
This analys is is a tabulation of w eekly ass es sm ents s hown in one single tab le. The in form ation s how s the operable capac ity situation under assum ed conditions for each week. It is not expected that the system peak w ill occ ur every w eek during June, July a
ISO-NE Sum m er 2004 OPERABLE CAPACITY ANALYSISM ay 3, 2004 - W IT H KNOWN EXTERNAL CO NTRACT S - 50/50 FORECAST
22
Summer 2004 Capacity Assessment
NEPOO L Operating Capac ity M argins W IT H KN OW N EXT ER N AL T R ANSAC T IO N S - 5 0 /5 0 FO R ECAST
(1 ,000)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
June - Septem ber 2004, W /B Saturday
Ope
ratin
g C
apa
city
Mar
gin
(MW
)
O P 4 Ac tio n 5
23
Summer 2004 Capacity Assessment
We e k Be gin n in g, S atu rd ay
Year M onth Day
Ins talled Seasonal Claimed
Capability (SCC)
[Note 1]
Interchange (N YPP, NB, HQ, Highgate,
Block Load)
Note
New Generat ion
[N ote 2]
De-lis ted ICAP
Resources [Note 3]
Net Capac ity [Note 4]
Peak Load Exposure [Note 5]
Operat ing Reserve
Requirem ent [Note 6]
Total Know n M aintenance
Allowance for
Unplanned Outages [N ote 7]
Total Capac ity
Operable C apacity
M argin (+/-)
Extent of OP 4 Ac t ions That May b e Necessary (OP
4 Ac tions up to and inc luding) [Note 8]
(M W ) (M W ) (M W ) (M W ) (M W ) (M W ) (MW ) (M W ) (M W ) (M W ) (M W )2004 June 5 30,675 450 300 - 31,430 27,305 1,700 1,200 2,800 27,430 (1,580) Actions 11 - 12
12 30,675 450 300 - 31,430 27,305 1,700 700 2,800 27,930 (1,080) Ac tions 7 - 11 19 30,675 450 300 - 31,430 27,305 1,700 500 2,800 28,130 (880) Ac tions 6 - 11 26 30,675 450 300 - 31,430 27,305 1,700 500 2,800 28,130 (880) Ac tions 6 - 11
2004 July 3 30,638 450 300 - 31,390 27,305 1,700 100 2,100 29,190 190 10 30,638 450 300 - 31,390 27,305 1,700 100 2,100 29,190 190 17 30,638 450 300 - 31,390 27,305 1,700 100 2,100 29,190 190 24 30,638 450 300 - 31,390 27,305 1,700 100 2,100 29,190 190 31 30,638 450 300 - 31,390 27,305 1,700 100 2,100 29,190 190
2004 August 7 30,638 450 300 - 31,390 27,305 1,700 100 2,100 29,190 190 14 30,638 450 300 - 31,390 27,305 1,700 100 2,100 29,190 190 21 30,638 450 300 - 31,390 27,305 1,700 100 2,100 29,190 190 28 30,638 450 300 - 31,390 27,305 1,700 400 2,100 28,890 (120) Ac tion 6
2004 September 4 30,638 450 300 - 31,390 25,111 1,700 400 2,100 28,890 2,080 11 30,638 450 300 - 31,390 23,754 1,700 1,000 2,100 28,290 2,840 18 30,638 450 300 - 31,390 23,393 1,700 1,900 2,100 27,390 2,300 25 30,638 450 300 - 31,390 23,303 1,700 1,300 2,100 27,990 2,990
Notes : P lease note that the inform ation contained within the C apacity Analysis is a determ inis tic pro jection o f s ystem conditions which could m aterialize during any giv en week of the year.1 . Ins ta lled C apability per May 1, 2004 SC C Repor t. The O perable Capability does not re flect possib le transm iss ion cons train ts w ith in the NEPOOL system .2. New Generation information inc ludes 1) generation recently com mercia l but not yet reflec ted in the NEPOO L SC C Repor t totals used in the Ins ta lled C apability Column,
and 2) future generation as as sum ed by ISO-NE Planning D epartm ent. Th is value is rounded to the nearest hundred.3. De-lis ted ICAP quantities are on ly known w ith c er ta inty in the c ur rent m onth. This num ber is ad justed when a de listed generator is out on maintenanc e to avoid double counting.4. Net Capacity = (SC C) + (In terc hange) + (New Generation) - (D e- listed IC AP R esourc es ). In this equation, the SCC , Interchange and De- listed IC AP values are rounded to
the nearest ten and New Generation is rounded to the nearest hundred.5. Peak Load Expos ure reflec ts va lues published in the April 2004 C ELT R eport. 6. Operating Reserve Requirem ent based on the firs t contingenc y (Generator at 1160 MW ) plus 1/2 the second contingenc y (Generator at 1145 MW ).7. Allow ance for Unplanned O utages inc ludes: forced outages and m aintenance outages s cheduled less than 14 days in advance.8. Relief from cer ta in OP 4 Actions varies , depending on s ystem c onditions.
This analys is is a tabulation of w eekly ass es sm ents s hown in one single tab le. The in form ation s how s the operable capac ity situation under assum ed conditions for each week. It is not expected that the system peak w ill occ ur every w eek during June, July a
ISO-NE Summ er 2004 OPERABLE CAPACITY ANALYSISM ay 3, 2004 - WITH K NOW N EXTER NAL CONTRACTS - 90/10 FO RECAST
24
Summer 2004 Capacity Assessment
Conditions for Week of Lowest Operable Capacity MarginWeek beginning June 5th
MW
Projected Peak (90/10) 27,305
Operating Reserve Required 1,700
Total Operable Cap. Required 29,005
Projected Capacity 31,430
Assumed Outages 4,000
Total Capacity 27,430
Operable Capacity Margin - 1,575
25
Summer 2004 Capacity Assessment
NEPOO L Operating Capac ity M argins W IT H KN OW N EXT ER N AL T R ANSAC T IO N S - 9 0 /1 0 FO R ECAST
(3 ,000)
(2 ,000)
(1 ,000)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
June - Septem ber 2004, W /B Saturday
Ope
ratin
g C
apa
city
Mar
gin
(MW
)
OP 4 Act io n s 6-11 OP 4 Act io n 6
OP 4 A ction s 11-12
26
Back-Up Detail
27
CT/SWCT
28
SWCT Transmission
• Phase I– Received conditional approval from
Connecticut Siting Council 2/11/04• Phase II
– Town hearings completed– “Need” hearings completed– “Overhead” segments and “East Shore” –
May– “Underground Technology” segments – June
29
Demand Response
30
Demand Response(as of April 30, 2004)
Active: Pending:Zone Assets Total Assets Total
CT 102 129.2 2 12.5ME 5 78.5NEMA 116 68.9 1 0.3NH 2 0.6RI 11 2.0SEMA 77 8.4VT 15 13.1WCMA 87 24.8
Total 415 325.5 3 12.8
31
Demand Response(as of April 30, 2004)
* SWCT assets are included in CT values and are not included in Total
Active: 415 Assets 325.5 MW Pending: 3 Assets 12.8 MWZone Assets RT Price RT 30-Min RT 2-Hour Profiled Assets RT Price RT 30-Min RT 2-Hour Profiled
CT 102 16.9 53.4 1.1 57.8 2 12.1 0.4 0.0 0.0
SWCT* 45 5.4 18.0 1.1 0.2 1 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
ME 5 1.5 0.0 1.0 76.0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NEMA 116 62.7 3.3 1.5 1.4 1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
NH 2 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
RI 11 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
SEMA 77 7.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
VT 15 7.1 0.1 0.0 5.9 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
WCMA 87 8.8 4.5 9.6 1.9 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 415 107.0 62.3 13.3 142.9 3 12.4 0.4 0.0 0.0
32
Northwest Vermont
33
NWVT Reliability Project Update
• State hearing process continues– Technical Hearings complete– Discovery on 115kV line relocations
underway, hearings by mid-June– Rebuttal phase delayed until end of July – Decision expected by mid October
34
New Generation
35
New Generation Update
• No new resources were added in April.
• Approximately 350 MW expected on line by the end of the year.
• Status of Generation Projects as of April 28, 2004:
No. MW
In Construction 4 364with 18.4 approval
Not in Construction 6 1,439with 18.4 Approval
36
RTEP
37
RTEP Update
• TEAC21 held on Thursday, May 6, at the Sheraton Hotel in Springfield, MA
• Discussion Topics– Load Response Program 2004– Load Response Penetration Study– SWCT RFP Results– Resource Adequacy Results– Interregional Planning Update– Economic Assessment
• Review methodology• Results
• TEAC22 tentatively scheduled for June 2• TEAC23 tentatively scheduled for June 25
38
RTEP Projects Update - NEMA
Status as of 5/3/2004
UpgradeExpected In-
serviceOriginal In-
servicePresent Stage
NEMA Boston Stages
1 Planning and Prep148-522XY Jun-01 Jun-01 4 2 Pre-construction (ordering, scheduling, etc.)282-507 Mar-03 Jun-01 4 3 Construction240-510 Nov-01 Nov-01 4 4 CompletedMystic 106 Breaker Jun-01 Jun-01 4
NEMA UpgradesFramingham Auto Jun-02 Jun-02 4Merrimack Auto Jun-04 Jun-02 3240-601 Jun-02 Jun-02 4Walpole Auto Jun-02 Dec-02 4 3800 3400Waltham Auto Nov-02 Jun-03 4282-602 Jul-03 Jun-03 4433-507 Jul-03 Jun-03 4Waltham PAR Jun-03 Dec-03 4274-509 Jun-02 Dec-03 4342-507 Jun-03 Dec-03 4
Notes:Merrimack work continuing.
36004000
NEMA UPGRADE STATUS SHEET
3500
3700
3900
Import (MW)
3100
3300
3500
39
RTEP Projects Update - SWCT
Status as of 5/3/2004
UpgradeExpected In-
serviceOriginal In-
servicePresent Stage
SWCT Import (MW)
Stages
1 Planning and PrepExisting 1700 2 Pre-construction (ordering, scheduling, etc.)Long Mountain Brkrs May-01 May-01 4 3 ConstructionRocky River Caps Jun-02 May-02 4 4 CompletedStony Hill Caps Jun-02 May-02 41880 Upgrade Aug-02 May-02 41890 Upgrade Jun-02 May-02 4BtsRk/StyHl DVARs Jun-03 Jun-03 4 2000Glenbrook StatCom May-04 May-04 31977 Line Tap-Glnbrk May-04 May-04 3
Phase I - 345kV Nov-05 Dec-04 2 2550
Phase II - 345kV Dec-07 Jan-06 1 3400
Notes:Glenbrook STATCOM work continuing. In-service date moved from April to May.1977 Line Tap work continuing.
SWCT UPGRADE STATUS SHEET
1850
2000
40
Compliance
41
Compliance Update
• A4: Maintenance for Bulk Power System Protection– Required response to 2004 ISO-NE survey by
1/5/04– Level 2 sanctions will apply to 3 Participants
for failure to respond on time. – 4 Participants that have not completed their
2003 required maintenance must become compliant by May 31, 2004.
42
Compliance Update (cont.)
• A3: Generator Underfrequency Tripping– All Participants responded to the 2003 ISO-NE
Survey by 12/1/03• 6 Participants are non-compliant
– 2 are exempt– 2 have plans for compliance– 2 will require that ISO-NE enforce
compliance– 2004 Surveys on UFLS and UF generator trip
settings were sent out on March 15 and are due May 10, which includes a 10-day grace period.• Failure to comply will result in sanctions
43
Sanctions
• Level 1 – Letter from Director SP to the relevant functional head (operations, planning) of the Industry Participant with copy to NCWG
• Level 2 – Letter from COO to the Chief Executive of the Industry Participant with copy to the relevant functional head, other NEPOOL Participants (the NEPOOL Task Forces, RC, NPC) and NPCC
• Level 3 – Letter from the CEO to the Board of Directors of the Industry Participant with copies to Level recipients. Post on the ISO-NE Compliance Website.
• Level 4 – same as Level 3 with copies to the appropriate State/Provincial regulatory agencies, FERC, DOE, State Governor and Legislators.