Download - Natural Gas
Natural GasThe Carbon Light Energy SourceThe Carbon Light Energy Source
Abundant, Clean, DomesticReduces air pollution, carbon emissions and
our reliance on foreign oil
Abundant, Clean, DomesticReduces air pollution, carbon emissions and
our reliance on foreign oil
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What to Look For
What are policy aspirations?
What is Natural Gas?
How important is it as an energy source today?
How much do we have?
Can we increase production appreciably?
Is it a clean energy source?
Plans to achieve aspirations?
Summary
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What is the Green Energy Goal?
Obama Administration Goal “25% of Electricity from Renewables by 2025”
and A 14% reduction of GHG by 2020
Waxman-Markey Revised Goal“20% of Electricity from Renewables by 2025”,(also provides a 5% allowance for efficiency improvement)
and A 17% reduction of GHG by 2020”
What if we accomplished these Goals Today using Clean Burning Natural Gas?
Note: Waxman-Markey passed the House, waiting on Senate approval
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What is Natural Gas?
Technically 96-98% ……. CH4 (Methane)
It is NOT … Gasoline, Natural Gasoline, LPG, Propane, Butane, etc.
1 Carbon atom with 4 Hydrogen atoms around it In Carbon based fuels it has the highest ratio of Hydrogen to Carbon Highest energy content per carbon
It is a gas at room temperature and a liquid at -258 degF
It IS ……… Natural Gas, LNG, CNG
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2008 US Energy Supply
Wind, Solar, Other
0.6 (0.6%)
Wood 2.0 (2%)
Hydro 2.5 (3%)
Biofuels 1.4 (1%)
Geothermal 0.4 (0.4%)
Waste 0.4 (0.4%)
107 Quads Total
Coal 23.9 (22% )
Natural Gas 21.2 (20% )
Crude Imports
27.6 (26% )
Nuclear 8.5 (8% )
Other5.3 (5% )
Renewables 7.3 (7% )
Crude-NGL 12.9 (12% )
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How Much Natural Gas Do We Have?
“Attainable potential is about 287 TCF of Natural Gas …… More than a hundred of our geologists and geophysicists contributed to this comprehensive study” JD Langston, VP Explor,
Exxon Co, 1976
“Natural gas has had it” John O’Leary, Federal Energy Administration, 1977
Cumulative Production since 1977 is 582 TCF
Proven Remaining Reserves exceed 238 TCF
All Sources Potential Reserves now exceed 2,000 TCF
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U.S. Gas Reserve GrowthGas Inventory in Years
15 14 13 12
29 30
6168 67 65 65 64 66 68 68
83
101
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
1977 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008Year
Gro
ss
Rem
ain
ing
G
as
Re
se
rve
s (
BC
F)
-
50
100
150
200
250
Ye
ars
of
Cu
rre
nt
Pro
du
cti
on
Sources: EIA 2007 Annual Proven Reserve Report and Potential Gas Committee Report - June 2009
2008
Pro
ven
Est
Current All Sources Gas Reserves over 2,000 TCFOver a 100 Year Supply!
NGPA Regulation
First BarnettLarge Water
FracsWellhead De-Control
Act
Total Potential ReservesYears of Production
8
ME
NHVT
MARI
NY
NJ
DEMD
PA
VA
NC
WV
OH
MIWI
MN
IA
IL IN
KY
TNSC
FL
GAAL
MS
LA
AR
MO
TX
OK
KS
NE
NM
CO
WY
MT ND
SD
UT
AZ
NV
ID
WA
OR
CA
CT
San Juan
UintaPiceance
Green River
CodyBakken
Mowry
Hillard-Baxter-Manco
sMancos
Hermosa
Lewis Pierre
Barnett-Woodford
Barnett
Woodford
Haynesville
Fayetteville
Excello-Mulky
Marcellus
New Albany
Antrim
Utica
Niobrara
Floyd
U.S. Tight Gas and Shale Gas Plays
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U.S. Gas Production GrowthProduction Additions
17,000
17,500
18,000
18,500
19,000
19,500
20,000
20,500
21,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
An
nu
al P
rod
uct
ion
(B
CF
)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
To
tal
Gas
Rig
s
Annual Production GAS RIGS
CBM & Tight Gas
GOM Declines
New
Sha
le P
lays
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US Natural Gas Production Growth
For every 100 incremental Natural Gas Rigs Actively Drilling on a Continuous Basis:
We can expect Gas Production to increase approximately 1 TCF per Year
andWe will also add over 100,000 New Jobs!
Source: CERI Annual Report 2007-1
Is Natural Gas Clean?
Cleanest-burning hydrocarbon fuel on the planetCombustion products are primarily CO2 and Water VaporDrilling for natural gas leaves a small footprintAt Least 95% Cleaner than Alternative Fuels for Toxics
Pollutant (1) Natural Gas Oil Coal
Carbon Dioxide 117,000 164,000 208,000
Carbon Monoxide 40 33 208
Nitrogen Oxides 92 448 457
Sulfur Dioxide 1 1,122 2,591
Particulates 7 84 2,744
Mercury 0.000 0.007 0.016
(1) Emissions in #'s per Billion BTU
Source: EIA National Gas Issues and Trends 1998
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Where Does US Pollution Come From?
CO (Carbon-Monoxide) ---------------------------------- Reduces Pulmonary Function, small children, sick and elderlyNOx & VOC (NitrousOxide & Volatile Organics) --- Combine to form Ground Level Ozone which Reduces Pulmonary FunctionSO2 (Sulfur Dioxide) -------------------------------------- Acid Rain precursor and It smells like rotten eggsPM10 (~ 10 Micron Dust) -------------------------------- Stays in Your Lungs, Reduces Pulmonary Function and causes Haze
Source CO NOx SO2 PM10 VOC TOTAL
2008 Total (1000's Tons) 77,685 16,339 11,429 14,806 15,927 136,186
Vehicles (On & Off Road) 73% 58% 5% 3% 38% 54%Utilities 1% 18% 66% 4% 0.3% 9%Oil and Gas Production 0.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 2.3% 0.5%Service Stations - Gasoline 5% 1%Recyling,Waste Disposal 2% 1% 0.2% 2% 2% 2%Dust (Cars,) 53% 6%Solvent,Paint,Coating 27% 3%Forest Fires, Agriculture 13% 25% 12% 12%Industrial Process - Other 11% 22% 29% 13% 14% 14%
66%UtilitiesOil and Gas Production
2.3%
73% 58%Vehicles (On & Off Road) 38%
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Here’s a BIG Idea
We can Achieve Stated US Goals for Clean and Domestically Sourced Energy for
25% of our Electricity generation NOW (Not in 2025!) simply by ………..
Shutting Down the 75 Worst Coal Fired Plants in the US
Turning Up the EXISTING Natural Gas Combined Cycle Turbines
Very Clean, Very Fuel Efficient, Under-Utilized
And we don’t SPEND ANY $$Capital to Do It !
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Here’s Another BIG Idea
We can use Natural Gas asClean and Domestically Sourced Energy to Replace 25% of our Crude Oil Consumption
by …
Switching up to 33% of Vehicles to CNG(Compressed Natural Gas)
Very Clean, Very Fuel Efficient, Very Economical
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What Do We Need to Do?
How Much NatGas Production?Add Domestic Natural Gas Production of:
4.6 TCF/YR to provide electricityAdd another 8 TCF/YR to Offset 25% of Crude Oil
How Do We Accomplish That?Put the 1,000 “Layed Down” Gas Rigs back to Work
Build or Re-Deploy 1200 New Gas Rigs
Plus
Create Up to 1.2 Million New Jobs !
Source: Industry Production Trend Analysis, CERI Annual Study 2007-1
Let’s Look at the Electric Power Sector
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Nuclear 8.5 (21% )
Natural Gas 7.0 (17% )
Petroleum 0.5 (1% )
Other 0.2 (1% )
Renewables 3.9 (10%)
Coal 20.6 (50% )
Wood & Biomass 0.2 (0.4% )
Geothermal 0.3 (0.7% )
Wind & Solar0.5 (1% )
Waste 0.2 (0.6% )
Hydro 2.5 (6% )
2008 US Fuel Use for Electricity Production
40.7 Quads Total (25.8 Quads Waste Heat)
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How is Electricity Generated?
Percent Installed Capacity
30%
10%
40%
8%2%10%
Percent of 2008 Electricity
19%
48%
6%1%
20%
Percent of Time Online
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
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Pollutants – Electric Sector
Percent Electricity Generated20%
19%
6%
1%
6%
48%
Percent of Pollution Emissions
0% 2%
0%5%
0%
93%
Percent of Greenhouse Gas
17%
10%
1%
72%
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Focus on the Worst Coal Plants
There are 378 Large Coal fired Power Plants in the US
75 of the Worst Coal Plants in the US Emit :
55% of the SO2 32% of the Mercury38% of the NOx26% of the CO2
But provide only 14% of Total ElectricityMajority were installed before 1970 – Old Technology
Located in 22 States – primarily East of Mississippi“Locally” available Combined Cycle Natural Gas Turbine
capacity to offset all 75 plants
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ME
NHVT
MARI
NY
NJ
DEMD
PA
VA
NC
WV
OH
MIWI
MN
IA
IL IN
KY
TNSC
FL
GAAL
MS
LA
AR
MO
TX
OK
KS
NE
NM
CO
WY
MT ND
SD
UT
AZ
NV
ID
WA
OR
CA
CT
75 Worst Coal Power Plants
3%4 plants
5% 3 plants
5% 3 plants
6% 5 plants
7% 6 plants
8% 6 plants
8% 8 plants
13% 9 plants
14% 8 plants
3%3 plants
3%3 plants
4%2 plants
2% 3 plants
2% 4 plants
1% 1 plant
1% 1 plant
1% 1 plant
1% 1 plant
1% 1 plant
1% 1 plant
0.4% 1 plant
0.3% 1 plant
Percent of Total Pollution
Population < 1 million 1-5 million 5-10 million10-15 million > 15 million
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A Plan to Replace 30% of Coal
Alternative #1 – Utilize Existing Combined Cycle Gas Turbines
Alternative #2 – Purchase Large Scale 2.4 MW Wind Turbines
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Alternative Replaced By
Reduction Total SO2 Emissions
1000's Tons
% Reduction of SO2
Emissions
Reduction Total
Mercury Emissions
Lbs
% Reduction of Mercury Emissions
Reduction Total GHG Emissions
MM's STons
% Reduction
of GHG Emissions
Status Quo None - - -
ALT #1 Existing CC Gas Turbines (5,040) -55% (15,680) -32% (469) -15%
ALT #2 Wind Turbines (5,300) -57% (15,680) -32% (641) -20%
Alternative Replaced By
Idle or New Installed Capacity
Required MW# of Units Purchased
Land Use 1000's Acres
Estimated Capital
Expense Billion $
Added Natural Gas
Fuel BCF / YR
Status Quo None 0 0 0 -$ 0
ALT #1 Existing CC Gas Turbines 68,252 0 0 -$ 4,630
ALT #2 Wind Turbines 136,503 56,876 6,235 287$ 2,792
Note: Wind Turbine Alternative assumed to require Conventional Gas Turbine backup during peak load times or 40% Wind Turbines assumed to be 2.4 MW units costing 2.0 MM$/ MW installed
How Do the Alternatives Compare?
FUEL / CAPITAL$
EMISSIONS
Let’s Look at the Crude Oil
Photos provided by: MC Oil
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Oil Supply vs Consumption
Source
7%
20%
24%
49%
Domestic
Imports
Refined Imports
NGPL/ Refinery
Consumption
8%
29%
63%
Motor Fuels
LPG/ Resid/ Oth
Jet Fuel
Total Sector Comprises ~ 40 QUADS per Year
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A Plan for NatGas to Displace Crude Oil
What if we replace 25% of Crude Oil with Natural Gas?
Over 54% of Total US Air Pollution results from Vehicles (On-Off Highway)The US Imports 65% of it’s Crude Oil (growing)6 Million Bbls per day comes from OPEC countries2008 Total Balance of Trade was -$816 Billion2008 Value of Crude & Products was $447 Billion (55%)
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How Do We Do It?
Need 8 Quads (~TCF) of incremental US supply Activate 800 NatGas Drilling Rigs (800,000 jobs)Convert up to 33% of vehicles to CNG (trucks too)Provide CNG filling stations to facilitate on highways
This is a BIG Goal but Small Thinking Achieves Small Results
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CNG(Compressed Natural Gas)
CNG Filling Station – safe, easy, similar to gasoline filling
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Expected Results
Offset 38% of Imported Oil with Natural GasReduce the Trade Deficit by $130 Billion annually (-21%)Save US consumers $73 billion in fuel costs annuallyCreate 800,000 new jobsReduce total air pollution by nearly 30%
Note: Cost savings based upon EIA 2008 average Imported Oil ($96.98/Bbl) and Citygate Gas ($7.47/MCF) prices
Transportation Sector
Reduce SO2 emissions by 55% Reduce Mercury emissions by 32%Reduce GHG emissions by 15%
This is Huge!
Electric Power Sector
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Questions?
Promote NatGas as the Realistic Green Energy
And Write Your Congressmen