National Economic Indicators
May 18, 2020
Table of ContentsGDP Release Date Latest Period Page
Table : Real Gross Domestic Product Apr-29-2020 08:33 Q1-2020 4
Real Gross Domestic Product Apr-29-2020 08:33 Q1-2020 5
Decomposition of Real Gross Domestic Product Apr-29-2020 08:33 Q1-2020 6
Households
Retail Sales May-15-2020 08:30 Apr-2020 7
Consumer Spending and Income Apr-30-2020 08:31 Mar-2020 8
Sales of Automobiles and Light Trucks May-01-2020 17:50 Apr-2020 9
Personal Saving Rate Apr-30-2020 08:31 Mar-2020 10
Household Net Worth Mar-12-2020 12:07 Q4-2019 11
Existing Single-Family Home Sales Apr-21-2020 10:00 Mar-2020 12
New Single-Family Home Sales Apr-23-2020 10:01 Mar-2020 13
Private Single-Family Housing Starts & Permits Apr-16-2020 08:30 Mar-2020 14
Private Multi-Family Housing Starts & Permits Apr-16-2020 08:30 Mar-2020 15
Business Investment
Real Investment in Nonresidential Structures Apr-29-2020 08:33 Q1-2020 16
Real Private Construction Put in Place May-01-2020 10:00 Mar-2020 17
Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment Apr-29-2020 08:33 Q1-2020 18
Real Investment in Equipment Apr-29-2020 08:33 Q1-2020 19
Real Investment in Intellectual Property Apr-29-2020 08:33 Q1-2020 20
Trade
Balance of International Trade May-07-2020 08:31 Mar-2020 21
Exchange Value of the USD Apr-28-2020 09:09 Dec-2019 22
Manufacturing
Industrial Production May-15-2020 09:17 Apr-2020 23
Capacity Utilization Rate: Manufacturing May-15-2020 09:17 Apr-2020 24
Indexes of Manufacturing Activity May-01-2020 10:02 Apr-2020 25
Indexes of Non-Manufacturing Activity May-05-2020 10:02 Apr-2020 26
Table : ISM Business Survey Indexes May-01-2020 10:02 Apr-2020 27
Manufacturers' New Orders May-15-2020 10:03 Mar-2020 28
Core Capital Goods May-15-2020 10:03 Mar-2020 29
Business Inventory/Sales Ratios May-15-2020 10:05 Mar-2020 30
(continued)Labor Market Release Date Latest Period Page
Nonfarm Payroll Employment May-08-2020 08:30 Apr-2020 31, 32
Unemployment Rate Measures May-08-2020 08:30 Apr-2020 33,34
Non-Employment Index May-15-2020 14:50 Apr-2020 35
Labor Market Flows May-15-2020 10:00 Mar-2020 36
Labor Force Participation May-08-2020 08:30 Apr-2020 37
Aggregate Weekly Hours Index May-08-2020 08:30 Apr-2020 38
Average Hourly Earnings May-08-2020 08:30 Apr-2020 39
Employment Cost Index Apr-30-2020 08:31 Q1-2020 40
Business Labor Productivity May-07-2020 08:31 Q1-2020 41
Unit Labor Costs, Nonfarm Business May-07-2020 08:31 Q1-2020 42
Inflation
Table : Gauges of Inflation May-01-2020 05:40 Apr-2020 43
Expenditure Price Indexes Apr-30-2020 08:31 Mar-2020 44, 45
Consumer Price Indexes May-12-2020 08:32 Apr-2020 46
Producer Price Indexes May-13-2020 08:34 Apr-2020 47
Commodity Price Indexes May-01-2020 05:40 Apr-2020 48
Crude Oil Prices May-18-2020 18-May-2020 49
TIPS Inflation Compensation May-12-2020 15:42 08-May-2020 50
Monetary Policy & Financial Markets
Federal Reserve System Assets May-14-2020 16:32 13-May-2020 51
Monetary Policy Instruments May-17-2020 08:12 15-May-2020 52
Real Federal Funds Rate Apr-30-2020 08:31 Apr-2020 53
FOMC Statement 54, 55
Eurodollar Futures May-18-2020 18-May-2020 56
SEP: Federal Funds Rate 57
Monetary Base May-07-2020 16:31 06-May-2020 58
M2 May-14-2020 16:31 Apr-2020 59
Money Market Rates May-17-2020 08:12 15-May-2020 60
Capital Market Rates May-17-2020 08:12 15-May-2020 61
Treasury Yield Curve May-15-2020 16:30 15-May-2020 62
Risk Premium May-17-2020 08:12 15-May-2020 63
Real Gross Domestic Product
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 4
2019 2020
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER AT COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE [Percent]:
Gross Domestic Product 3.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 -4.8
Personal Consumption Expenditures 1.1 4.6 3.2 1.8 -7.6
Nonresidential Fixed Investment 4.4 -1.0 -2.3 -2.4 -8.6
Structures 4.0 -11.1 -9.9 -7.2 -9.7
Equipment -0.1 0.8 -3.8 -4.3 -15.2
Intellectual Property 10.8 3.6 4.7 2.8 0.4
Residential Fixed Investment -1.0 -3.0 4.6 6.5 21.0
Exports of Goods & Services 4.1 -5.7 1.0 2.1 -8.7
Imports of Goods & Services -1.5 0.0 1.8 -8.4 -15.3
Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers 1.8 3.6 2.2 1.6 -5.4
LEVEL IN QUARTER AT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE [Billions of Chained (2012) Dollars]:
Change in Private Inventories 116.0 69.4 69.4 13.1 -16.3
Net Exports of Goods & Services -944.0 -980.7 -990.1 -900.7 -817.4
0.7Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross
Investment2.9 4.8 1.7 2.5
Real Gross Domestic Product
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics & Federal Reserve Board5
Note: Projection is the median, central tendency, and range from the December 2019 Summary of Economic
Projections. Red dots indicate median projections. Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP)
are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
Decomposition of Real GDP
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 6
Note: Productivity is calculated as real GDP per employee, from the Household Survey.
Retail Sales
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 7
Note: Retail sales includes food services.
Feb Mar Apr
Total -0.4 -8.3 -16.4
x Gasoline -0.2 -7.6 -15.5
Month over Month % Change
Consumer Spending and Income
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 8
Note: Income has been adjusted to account for temporary fiscal actions in 2008 and 2012-2013.
Jan Feb Mar
Income 0.4 0.4 -1.7
Expenditures 0.3 0.1 -7.3
Month over Month % Change
Sales of Automobiles & Light Trucks
Source: Autodata Corporation via Haver Analytics 9
Personal Saving Rate
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 10
Note: Income has been adjusted to account for temporary fiscal actions in 2008 and
2012-2013.
Household Net Worth
Source: Z.1 Financial Accounts of the United States via Haver Analytics 11
Existing Single-Family Home Sales
Source: National Association of Realtors via Haver Analytics 12
New Single-Family Home Sales
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 13
Private Single-Family Housing Starts & Permits
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 14
Private Multi-Family Housing Starts & Permits
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 15
Real Investment in Nonresidential Structures
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 16
Real Private Construction Put In Place
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 17
Notes: Private nonresidential construction deflated using the price index for private fixed investment
in nonresidential structures and private residential construction deflated using the private residential
investment chain price index.
Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 18
Real Investment in Equipment
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 19
Real Investment in Intellectual Property
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 20
Balance of International Trade
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 21
Exchange Value of the USD
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 22
Industrial Production
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 23
Capacity Utilization Rate: Manufacturing
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 24
Indexes of Manufacturing Activity
Source: Institute for Supply Management & Richmond Fed via Haver Analytics 25
Indexes of Non-Manufacturing Activity
Source: Institute for Supply Management & Richmond Fed via Haver Analytics 26
ISM: Business Survey Indexes
Source: Institute for Supply Management via Haver Analytics 27
DIFFUSION INDEXES: Numbers above 50 percent indicate more favorable responses towards
economic activity.
Mar. Apr. Mar. Apr.
Purchasing Managers Index 49.1 41.5 Non-Manufacturing Index 52.5 41.8
Production 47.7 27.5 Business Activity 48.0 26.0
New Orders 42.2 27.1 New Orders 52.9 32.9
Employment 43.8 27.5 Employment 47.0 30.0
Supplier Deliveries 65.0 76.0 Supplier Deliveries 62.1 78.3
Inventories 46.9 49.7 Inventories 41.5 46.9
Prices 37.4 35.3 Prices 50.0 55.1
Backlog of Orders 45.9 37.8 Backlog of Orders 55.0 47.7
New Export Orders 46.6 35.3 New Export Orders 45.9 36.3
Imports 42.1 42.7 Imports 40.2 49.3
MANUFACTURING BUSINESS: NON-MANUFACTURING BUSINESS:
Manufacturers’ New Order
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 28
Core Capital Goods
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 29
Notes: Core capital goods are nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft.
Business Inventory/Sales Ratio
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 30
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 31
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 32
Apr -20537
Mar -881
Feb 251
Jan 214
Dec 184
Monthly Change
Unemployment Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 33
Notes: FOMC projection is the median, range, and central tendency for the Q4 levels, from the
December 2019 meeting. Red dots indicate median projections
Measures of Labor Utilitzation
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 34
Non-Employment Index
35
Based on “Measuring Resource Utilization in the Labor Market,” Andreas Hornstein, Marianna
Kudlyak, and Fabian Lange, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly, First
Quarter 2014.
Labor Market Flows
Source: JOLTS via Haver Analytics 36
Note: *Percent of total employment. **Percent of total employment plus job openings.
Labor Force Participation
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 37
Aggregate Weekly Hours Index
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 38
Average Hourly Earnings
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 39
Apr 4.7
Mar 0.5
Feb 0.3
Jan 0.2
Dec 0.1
Monthly % Change
Employment Cost Index
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 40
Labor Productivity, Nonfarm Business
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 41
Q1-20 -2.5
Q4-19 1.2
Q3-19 -0.3
Q2-19 2.7
Quarter Change
at Annual Rate
Unit Labor Cost, Nonfarm Business
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 42
Notes: Alternate series is derived from the Employment Cost Index.
Q1-20 4.8
Q4-19 0.9
Q3-19 0.2
Q2-19 0.1
At Annual Rate
Quarterly Change
Gauges of Inflation
Source: BEA, BLS, & Commodity Research Bureau via Haver Analytics 43
Notes: Core PCE Price Index includes expenditures on food services.
Expenditure Price Indexes [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]:
Feb. Mar. YoY %
Personal Consumption Expenditures 1.0 -3.2 1.3
Core (excludes Food and Energy) 1.9 -1.0 1.7
Consumer Price Indexes [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]:
Mar. Apr. YoY %
All Items -5.0 -9.1 0.3
Core (excludes Food and Energy) -1.2 -5.2 1.4
Producer Price Indexes [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]:
Mar. Apr. YoY %
Finished Goods -12.6 -34.7 -4.9
Core (excludes Food and Energy) 3.5 -0.6 1.1
Core Intermediate Goods -0.6 -16.1 -3.0
Crude GoodsCrude Goods -63.0 -83.0 -28.2
Spot Commodity Price Index
Mar. Apr. YoY %
CRB Spot Commodity Price Index -6.3 -4.6 -16.3
[Percent Change from Previous Month]:
Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 44
Notes: FOMC projection is the median, range, and central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes,
from the December 2019 meeting. Red dots indicate median projections.
Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index
45
Notes: FOMC projection is the median, range, and central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes,
from the December 2019 meeting. Red dots indicate median projections. Core PCE Price Index
excludes expenditures on gasoline and food services.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics
Consumer Price Indexes
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 46
MoM % Changes Mar Apr
CPI: All Items -0.4 -0.8
Core CPI -0.1 -0.4
Producer Prices Indexes
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 47
All Finished Goods -4.9
Core Finished Goods 1.1
Apr (percent)
Commodity Price Indexes
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Commodity Research Bureau via Haver Analytics 48
Crude Oil Prices
Source: Financial Times via Haver Analytics & Chicago Mercantile Exchange 49
Notes: Spot and Futures Prices are for Brent Crude Oil.
TIPS Inflation Compensation
Source: Federal Reserve Board via Haver Analytics 50
Federal Reserve System Assets
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 51
Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding.
Monetary Policy Instruments
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 52
Real Federal Funds Rate
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 53
Note: The Real Federal Funds Rate is the difference between the effective Fed Funds rate and the
lagged year-over-year change in the core PCE price index.
FOMC Statement
Source: Board of Governors 54
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby
promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.
The coronavirus outbreak is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. The
virus and the measures taken to protect public health are inducing sharp declines in economic activity and a surge in job losses.
Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices are holding down consumer price inflation. The disruptions to economic activity
here and abroad have significantly affected financial conditions and have impaired the flow of credit to U.S. households and
businesses.
The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses
considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term. In light of these developments, the Committee decided to
maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee expects to maintain this target range
until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price
stability goals.
April 29, 2020
Continued…
55
The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including information
related to public health, as well as global developments and muted inflation pressures, and will use its tools and act as appropriate
to support the economy. In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the stance of monetary policy, the Committee
will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent
inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market
conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.
To support the flow of credit to households and businesses, the Federal Reserve will continue to purchase Treasury securities and
agency residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning,
thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions. In addition, the Open Market Desk will
continue to offer large-scale overnight and term repurchase agreement operations. The Committee will closely monitor market
conditions and is prepared to adjust its plans as appropriate.
Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael
Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.
Eurodollar Futures
Source: CME Group via Bloomberg 56
May 18, 2020
May 11, 2020
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Percent
Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Funds Rate
Source: Board of Governors 57
Note: Each dot in the chart represents the value of an FOMC participant’s judgment of the midpoint of
the appropriate target range (or the appropriate target level) for the federal funds rate at the end of
the calendar year. Projections made for the December 2019 meeting.
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
2019 Longer run
Percent
2020 2021 2022
Monetary Base
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 58
M2
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 59
Money Market Rates
Source: Board of Governors & Financial Times via Haver Analytics 60
Capital Market Rates
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 61
Treasury Yield Curve
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 62
Risk Premium
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 63
Note: Risk Premium is defined as the difference in yields between BofA Merrill Lynch BBB and
10-year Treasury.