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AdvisorMOStMonthly Markets Newsletter
n This Issue
• Market Outlook for the month
• Equity Market Outlook
• Derivatives & Commodities Market Outlook
• Large Cap and Mid Cap Investment Ideas
• Model Advisory Portfolios
• Recommended Funds
• Tax Free Bonds
Dear Investor,
Market performance: Frontline Indices ended February
with a 7% loss and a 12.2% loss YTD. Midcaps have been
butchered and are now at attractive valuations as are
sectors such as Banking, Metals and Capital Goods.
Budget 2016-17: 11% Net Tax revenue growth look
realistic and is lower than our assumption of 21% income
tax growth for NIFTY companies. Expenditure focus is on Rural (especially Agriculture)
Infrastructure and INR75000cr Pay Commission payout. All these have potential to
raise consumer spend and dirve demand in consumer and economy-related sectors
The Pay Commission payout can add 0.7% to GDP or 1% factoring in a conservativ
1.5x turn of this money flow. The lower capitalization for banks was the only
disappointment, but "Outside-the-budget" measure make up for the disappointment
Fiscal [email protected]%: Lower net borrowings (INR4.3 Lakh crore) for FY17 wi
aid lower interest rates , spur consumption, and reduce interest costs for debt heavycompanies. Cyclicals tend to get fired-up by such measures and beaten-down stock
could lead the upmove initially. FD investors should lock into rates before April'16
when Banks are expected to cut base rates by 40-50bps.
Taxing times for the Rich: The Budget raised surcharge on 1CR+ salary from 12%
to 15%, raised service tax to 15%, imposed a 1% luxury tax on large cars and a
1-4% Infra cess on cars\UVs, brought in perquisite tax on employer's PF contribution
>INR1.5Lakhs, and taxed dividends@10% >INR10Lakhs. This RICH tax is expected
to fund the BHARAT construction and support agenda. The Economic Survey present
a road-map for future budgets to Tax the INR1Lakh cr subsidy paid to the Rich.
Outlook: Rate cut and consumption boom should drive earnings in FY17 and beyondAdvance tax numbers on March 15th will be a reality check for 4Q performance
In the interim, one could look at a Bounce-back that could become a fresh impulse
Our Multi-Cap recommended portfolio offers 5 large-cap stocks for SIP investors and
our MIDCAP recommended portfolio is now available ~15% off the peak. A good
Global Market
Index 29-Feb-16 MoM (%) YoY(%)
Sensex 23,002 -7.5 -21.7
Nifty 6,987 -7.6 -21.5
FTSE 6,097 0.2 -12.2
Dow 16,517 0.3 -8.9
Nasdaq 4,558 -1.2 -8.2
Hang Sang 19,112 -2.9 -23.0
Economic Pulse
Thought for the month
Key Highlights for the Month
Budget -BHARAT focus + Infra-push + Pay commission drivers
3.5% fiscal deficit = lower rates?
Taxing times for the Rich
March 2016
Key Indicators Current Month Change (%)
IIP -1.3% -
WPI -0.90% -
10 Year Yield 7.62% -2.06
USD/ INR 68.42 0.93
Crude ($) 35.97 3.54
Gold (10 gms) 29181 9.57
1
Ravi Shenoy
Vice President
time to Build a portfolio just as our government looks to Build a strong Bharat.
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Sectoral Highlights
On This Page
Equity Market Outlook
Markets & Our Recommendations
Equity Market Outlook
√ Nifty ended the month of February with a mammoth loss of 7.62% as it
shred around 577 points. Nifty drifted lower from the very beginning of
the month but saw a ‘Bullish Harami’ formation at the middle of the
month. The pattern remained intact despite the event volatility & defined
the consolidation range of 6850-7250.
√ Relative rotation study of the Global markets saw Nifty moving from the
underperforming to the neutral zone. USDINR has approached the upper
extreme of the ‘Upward Sloping Channel’ which also coincides with the
2013 extreme & is emerging as an inflection zone. A price confirmation
could push the pair towards the lower extreme of the pattern which could
activate the inverse correlation effect on the Nifty.
√ On the weekly scale sustaining 'Bullish Harami' pattern despite the event
volatility coupled with Z score being at the lower extreme raises the odds
in favour of the bulls. But the big move would kick-in only post cross over
of 7250. Till then we may see a time correction with upper bound at 7250
and lower bound at the recent monthly low around 6850. In case of a
close below 6850 would void the set-up and could extend the drift.
√ Neutral set of cues were seen from open interest actively in stock futures,
which saw lack of carry forward, while short hedges got carried forward.
Option writers seem too aggressive keeping the 7000 strike ( at the money)
highly congested. Option indicated immediate range of 6800-7200 also
coincides with consolidating range.
√ Amongst sectors energy remains firm within the outperforming zone while
realty on the other hand has evidence of further deterioration. Rest all the
major sectors still remain in the neutral zone awaiting a directional confir-
mation.
Technical Outlook
Energy Positive HPCL Buy / 688
Midcap Neutral Pidilite Buy / 586
IT Neutral Infy Buy / 1084
NBFC Neutral HDFC Buy / 1060
Sector Our Views Top Pick Recommendation/CMP
Note: #Technical view for 1 month perspective,
USDINR
Nifty Weekly
NIFTY Z-Score
March 2016
2
Detailed report available on- http://ftp.motilaloswal.com/emailer/Marketdiary/QuantitativeMonthly/MOStQuantitativeOutlookMonthly-March2016.pdf
Data as on 29th February 201
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On This Page
Derivatives Market Outlook
Commodities Market Outlook
Markets & Our Recommendations
Derivatives Market Outlook
√ Rollovers for Stock futures were below average. But there was shedding seen in open interest which neutralizes directional bias
Sector Rollovers: Key notables: Among sectors Two Wheelers ( Bajaj-Auto and
Heromotoco) saw Short covering, Cement, Metal, Telecom see biggest unwinding
√√√√√ Banks , Auto Ancillary and Engineering stocks saw carried forward shorts
Following are the sectors that saw shorts getting built-up for most part of themonth but we did not see enough carry forward resulting into unwinding
√√√√√ PSU Banks, Metal & NBFC- Unwinding
√√√√√ Pharma, Power & Realty and Telecom : Mix of Short and Unwinding
SECTORS OI Nifty- Call Ratio Spread
Actionable
Buy Mar 7400 CE 1 Lot
Sell Mar 7700 CE 2 Lots
√ Rollovers for the February expiry were more or less inline with average, however the open interest was dow
expiry over expiry. This reduced directional convictio
of the market pre-budget.
√ Lower end 7200 and 7000 Puts remains strong sup port
√ In case of up move, Volatility Index is expected tofurther cool-off. To take advantage of falling volatility
Call Ratio Spread is recommended
Commodities Market Outlook
√ Oil prices ended nearly flat in February but saw extremely choppy moves with prices touching almost $26 before recovering by the end of the
month as slowdown in US output coupled with talks about an output freeze by major producers helped. US oil output continues to dip, albeit
at a slower pace but a continuing decline in the oil rig count is raising hopes among the bulls.
√ U.S. shale oil production is expected to fall for an eighth straight month in March with output set to fall by nearly 93,000 bpd to 4.92 million
North Dakota's oil output fell nearly 3% in December, the first drop in three months signaling that producers may have finally begun to curboutput. OPEC output also fell 0.8% m/m from the January's near record levels to 32.37 mbpd in February.
√ The major part of the recent rebound was also fueled by the decision by Saudi, Russia, Qatar and Venezuela to freeze output at January levels
However, the success of this deal is largely contingent on Iran and Iraq supporting it as they are the ones with the highest incrementa
production growth at this juncture.On the inventory side, US crude oil inventories are at a record 507.6 million barrels while product stocks at
Europe's Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp(ARA) hub remain at record highs. The inventory overhang is the biggest risk to price gains from here
√ Demand outlook meanwhile looks cloudy as Asian oil demand was lower 0.6% m/m in January .While Chinese demand was strong in 2015
the strength is unlikely to be the same this year with GDP and manufacturing activity slowing.
√ Looking ahead, even as the market action in oil has turned increasingly choppy, signs are that market has established a near term bottom and
we could see some more gains in the coming month.
Crude Oil
March 2016
3
Target Profit: 14000
Stop Loss: 4600
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AdvisorMOStMonthly Markets Newsletter
BUY
HPCL
CMP*: INR 688
Target: INR 1299
√ Post de-regulation and sharp drop in crude prices, we expect marketing division profit
ability to grow rapidly and hence a higher valuation for HPCL.
√ Of the three OMCs, HPCL's earnings are more sensitive to a change in the marketing
margin-given its higher ratio of marketing-to-refining volume.
√ An INR0.5/ltr increase in diesel marketing margin increases HPCL's FY16E EPS by 32%
Hence, it would be the largest beneficiary of higher auto fuel margins.
√ We value HPCL at 5.5x for refining and 8x for marketing for a fair value of INR1,299.
On This Page
Large Cap Investment Ideas
Mid Cap Investment Idea
Must Act
Large Cap Investment Ideas
√ Bajaj Finance, a subsidiary of Bajaj Finserv, is one of the largest consumer durable
financier in the country, and amongst the largest two wheeler and personal loans lende
√ We believe the company continues to increase its market share in consumer business,
it has almost monopoly in some of the business like lifestyle financing.
√ We raise FY17/18 PAT by 8% each on the back of strong growth momentum.
√ Maintain Buy rating with a target price of INR 7,194.BUY
Bajaj Finance
CMP*: INR 5932
Target: INR 7194
√ Indiabulls Housing Finance is the fourth largest housing finance company in India with
AUM of INR522b.
√ Market share gains will drive AUM growth of 24% CAGR for the next three years.
√ IHFL is the lowest levered HFCs (4.3x) and this will support growth without equity
dilution. Asset quality trend is likely to remain stable.
√ De-risked business model, good profitability and high dividend yield warrant premium
√ We recommend to Buy with a target price of INR907.
Indiabulls Housing Finance
CMP*: INR 575
Target: INR 907
BUY
Mid Cap Investment Ideas
√ Engineers India (EIL), a PSU, is the O&G consultant and executor for O&G projects for
ONGC, OIL, IOC, BPCL and HPCL.
√ Reduction in under-recovery for the Oil and gas sector due to lower crude prices and
decontrol of diesel and petrol prices has helped improve improve Oil PSU cash flows and
boost order flows for EIL.
√ The Euro-VI norms will entail spend to raise fuel standards and could bring in INR5000-
8000cr consultancy orders and INR15000-20000 cr EPC orders for EIL.
√ We have a target of INR265 on the stock.
Data as on 29th February 201
BUY
Engineers India
CMP*: INR 150
Target: INR 265
March 2016
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AdvisorMOStMonthly Markets Newsletter
On This Page
MOSt Value, MOSt Velocity, MOSt Mid-Cap
Build a Portfolio
MOSt Multi Cap - Model Portfolio for Investors
Scrip MBP Wtg.
Ultratech Cement 2769 11.9
Bajaj Finance 5932 11.6
Lupin 1755 11.2
Hero Motocorp 2500 10.8
HDFC 1060 10.2
BPCL 769 10
TVS Motors 268 4.4
Berger Paints 224 4.2
Indo Count Industries835 3.6
Suprajit Engineering 130 3.5
Finolex cables 238 3.5
Repco Home Finance 568 3.1
Eveready Industries 221 3.1
Dish TV 68 2.5
Engineers India 150 2.1
Cash 4.3
Total 100
Sectoral Allocation
March 2016
5
MOSt Velocity 10 - Model Portfolio for Positional Traders
Scrip MBP Wtg.
Dish TV 68 10
Larsen & Toubro 1076 10
Sun Pharma 854 10
ICICI Bank 190 7.5
Axis Bank 376 5
HDFC 1060 5
Hindalco 69 5
HPCL 688 5
IOC 368 5
United Spirits 2651 5
SBI 159 5
Titan Industries 317 5
Ultratech Cement 2769 5
Zee Entertainment 372 5
Cash 25
Total 100
Sectoral Allocation
For Whom : Long Term Investors
Investment Duration : Few months to a year
Risk Profile : Moderate Investors
For Whom : Medium Term Investors
Investment Duration : Few months horizon
Risk Profile : Moderate Investors
Returns 3mth 6mth 12mth
Portfolio -8.8% -4.9% -7.0%
BSE 200 -10.9% -9.4% -18.9%
Scrip MBP Wtg. Sectoral Allocation
What’s In
For Whom : Long Term Investors
Investment Duration : Few months to a year
Risk Profile : Aggressive Investors
MOSt Mid Cap- Model Portfolio for Aggressive Investors
Bajaj Finance 5932 12.7
TVS Motors 268 12.3Berger Paints 224 11.6
Indocount Industries 835 10.2
Suprajit Engineering 130 9.9
Finolex cables 238 9.6
Repco Home Finance 568 8.8
Eveready Industries 221 8.8
Dish TV 68 7.0
Engineers India 150 6.0
Cash 3.1
Total 100
-- --
√ Portfolio requirement to INR 10 Lakhs
√ 60% Large-caps and up to 40% in our MIDCAPs portfolio
√ 15 companies to invest in at the maximum, 10 minimum
√ 5 Large-caps that are suitable for SIP investments also
√ 1 Semi Large-cap from our MIDCAP portfolio
√ 10 stocks in the MICAPS space
√ Adheres to our QGLP philosophy
We are recommending a MULTI-CAP approach instead of a MIDCAP
approach. The Multi-cap INVESTMENT portfolio will have the
following characteristics:
Data as on 29th February 2
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On This Page
MOSt PMS, MOSt Mutual - Model Portfolio
Managed Funds
March 2016
6
MOSt PMS Top Holdings in Value Strategy
√ Value Strategy: - The Strategy aims to benefit from the Long term compounding effect on
investments done in good businesses, run by great business managers for superior wealth
creation.
√ Value Strategy has the investment style of buying Undervalued stock & Sell overvalued
stocks, irrespective of Index Movements.
√ Money multiplied by 17.80 times in just 12 years.
√ Rs 1 Cr invested in Value PMS in March 2003 is worth Rs. 17.80Crs vs. 6.91Crs in Nifty 50.
√ Since its inception, Value Strategy has delivered annualized returns of 24.92% vs. Nifty 50
returns of 16.11%, an outperformance of 8.81% (CAGR).
Value Strategy Scrips % Holdings
Sun Pharmaceuticals Ltd. 12.52
Eicher Motors Ltd. 11.68
Bosch Ltd. 8.13
HDFC Bank Ltd. 7.85
Asian Paints Ltd. 7.14
Sector Allocation % Holdings
Auto & Auto Ancillaries 29.24
Banking & Finance 23.46
Pharmaceuticals 12.52
FMCG 7.14
Oil and Gas 6.62
NTDOP Strategy
√ NTDOP Strategy:The strategy aims to deliver superior returns by investing in focused themes
which are part of the next Trillion Dollar GDP growth opportunity. It aims to predominantly
invest in Mid Cap stocks with a focus on Identifying Emerging Stocks/Sectors.
√ he strategy aims to capitalize on the themes of Consumerism, Banking & Financial Services
& Infrastructure in the Indian Economy.
√ Since its inception, NTDOP Strategy has delivered 15.43% annualized returns vs. 3.85% of
Nifty Midcap 100, delivering an annualized alpha of 11.58%.
Top Holdings in NTDOP Strategy
Scrips % Holdings
Bajaj Finance Ltd. 13.73
Eicher Motors Ltd. 13.10
HPCL 10.76
Page Industries Ltd. 7.40
Bosch Ltd. 6.74
All the above figures are of a model client. Returns shown above are calculated on NAV method "Returns shown above arepost fees & expenses". Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.
Data as on 29th February 2016
Sector Allocation % Holdings
Banking & Finance 30.23
Auto & Auto Ancillaries 22.49
FMCG 16.87
Oil and Gas 10.76
Pharmaceuticals 5.97
Top Holdings in IOP Strategy
Scrips % Holdings
Bajaj Finance Ltd. 12.56
HPCL 10.42Lupin Ltd. 9.41
Eicher Motors Ltd. 9.37
HDFC Bank Ltd. 6.66
Sector Allocation % Holdings
Banking & Finance 28.52
Pharmaceuticals 19.40
Auto & Auto Ancillaries 17.42
Oil and Gas 10.42
Airlines 6.19
ndia Opportunity Portfolio Strategy
√ India Opportunity Portfolio Strategy: The Strategy aims to generate long term capital appre-
ciation by creating a focused portfolio of high growth stocks having the potential to grow
more than the nominal GDP for next 5-7 years across market capitalization and which are
available at reasonable market prices.
√ Since its inception, India Opportunity Portfolio Strategy has delivered 10.51% annualized
returns vs. 6.31% of BSE 200, delivering an annualized alpha of 4.20%.
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Investment Produc
Tax Free Bonds
March 2016
7
Tax Free Bonds
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