Download - Morphological Method
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BUSINESS FORECASTING
MORPHOLOGICAL
PRESENTED BY
KUMAR NILESH
AVANISH TIWARI
VIVEK YADAV
POOJA SENGAR
MOHITASH C NANGOTRA
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Morphological Analysis works through very
simple processes, using two common
principles of creativity: decomposition
and forced association The problem is broken
down into component variables and possible
values identified for each. The association
principle is then brought into play by bangingtogether multiple combinations of these
values.
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Morphological analysis is a method foridentifying and investigating the total set ofpossible relationships contained in any given,
multi-dimensional problem complex that canbe parameterized.
Morphological analysis is a proven ideationmethod that leads to "organized invention."The technique allows for two key elements:
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a systematic analysis of the current and future
structure of an industry area (or domain) as
well as key gaps in that structure.
a strong stimulus for the invention of new
alternatives that fill these gaps and meet any
imposed requirements.
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Assumption
The morphological analysis is actually a group ofmethods that share the same structure. This methodbreaks down a system, product or process into itsessential sub-concepts, each concept representing a
dimension in a multi-dimensional matrix. Thus, everyproduct is considered as a bundle of attributes. Newideas are found by searching the matrix for newcombination of attributes that do not yet exist. Itdoesnt provide any specific guidelines for combining
the parameters. It tends to provide a large number ofideas.
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Advantages
"It may help us to discover new relationships or
configurations, which may not be so evident, or
which we might have overlooked by other less
structured methods. It encourages the identification and investigation of
boundary conditions, i.e. the limits and extremes of
different contexts and factors.
It also has definite advantages for scientific
communication and notably for group work.
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It allows us to find possible solutions to complex
problems characterized by several parameters.
Richness of data it can provide a multitude of
combinations permutations not yet explored. Systematic analysis this technique allows for a
systematic analysis of future structure of an industry
and identification of key gaps.
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Drawback
"One apprehension that has been voiced againstmorphological analysis is that it is too structured and thatthis could inhibit free, creative thinking.
Morphological analysis may yield too many possibilities.
Human judgments are still needed to direct the outcome.There are no guidelines for making combinations.
Human error the development of morphological boxesrequires critical judgments. If the underlying thoughtprocesses are not insightful, the outcomes of this method will
be weak.
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WHAT ARE QUALITATIVE METHODS
These are methods which rely on
experts who try to quantify the level
of demand from the available
qualitative data.
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DIFFERENT QUALITATIVE METHODS
DELPHI METHOD
MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS SCENARIO METHODS
SALES FORCE COMPOSITE METHOD etc.
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Characteristics of these methods
It is used when little or no quantitative
information is available but sufficient
qualitative knowledge exists.
Subjective based on intuition.
Assumes that somebody knows the
answers and ask them.
Experience based.
Subjective : might result is bias.
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USEFUL FOR
Long range forecasting
e.g. where technological, political etc play a
significant role.
When data is limited or non existence
e.g. new product launch
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MORPOLOGICAL ANALYSIS
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MEANING OF THE TERM
The term morphology comes from classicalGreek (morph) and means the study of shape
or form.
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WHAT IS IT IN SIMPLE TERMS
IT IS A TOOL WHICH CAN HELP
CAN HELP GENERATE A VAST
NUMBER OF IDEAS
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FORMALY WE CAN SAY THAT
Morphological analysis is a non-quantified
modelling method for structuring and
analysing technological, organisational and
social problem complexes. It relies on therepresentation of a problem using a number
of parameters (or variables), which are
allowed to assume a number of conditions (orstates).
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FIELDS OF APPLICATION
The PROBLEM" in question can be
physical (e.g. an organism, an anatomy or an
ecology)
social (an organization or institution) or
mental (e.g. linguistic forms, concepts or
systems of ideas)
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BEST THING ABOUT IT
IT CAN BE USED IN LITERALY
EVERY PROBLEM WE FACE
AND FIND IT DIFFICULT TO
GET AN OPTIMAL SOLUTION
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WHERE IT CAME FROM
The first to use it was J.W. von Goethe(1749-1832),
It was introduced to denote the principle offormation and transformation of organic bodies
Swiss astronomer ERITZ ZWICKY in 1948 usedit in a more generalised form.
He used it in the field of ASTROPHYSICS andROCKET RESEARCH
From the late 1960s to the early 1990s, a limited formof MA was employed by a number of engineers,operational researchers and policy analysts.
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CONTEMPORARY USE
SWEDISH DEFENCE RESEARCH AGENCY IN
1995 USED IT FOR Force Requirement
ALONG WITH ADVANCED COMPUTER
SUPPORT ( CASPER - A SOFTWARE )
THIS STUDY EXTENTED THE USE OF THIS
METHODS FUNCTIONALITY AND AREAS OF
APPLICATON
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SINCE THEN
MORE THAN 100 PROJECTS HAVE BEENCARIED OUT USING COMPUTER AIDEDMORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS
IT HAS BEEN USED IN STRUCTURING:- COMPLEX POLICY
PLANNING POLICY
SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT
ANALYSING ORGANISATIONAL
STRUCTURE etc.
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HOW TO USE IT PRACTICALLY
PROBLEMS AT HAND IS STUDIED
DIMENSIONS OF THE PROBLEMS ARELISTED
THEN WE GENERATE A LIST OF ATTRIBUTESUNDER EACH DIMENSIONS
THEN WE CONSTRUCT A
MULTIDIMENSIONAL MATRIX (morphologicalbox) WHOSE COMBINATIONS WILL CONTAINALL POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
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COMBINATIONS OF ALL ATTRIBUTES
ACROSS THE DIMENSIONS ARE EXAMINED( EVEN IF THEY APPEAR UNUSUAL OR
IMPRACTICAL)
Evaluation of the outcome is done which isbased on feasibility and achievement of
desired goals
Then in-depth analysis of best possibilitiesconsidering available resources is done .
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MORPHOLOGICAL FIELD
In Morphological Field we put all the
conditions and there parameters in box in aorganised way
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CROSS CONSISTENCY MATRIX
In this we basically check the logical relationship
between different parameters
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CASE STUDY
DISASTER REDUCTION
STRATEGYDEVELOPMENT
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IN THIS CASE STUDY WE IDENTIFY AND
COMPARE RISK REDUCTION STRATEGY AND
PREPAREDNESS FOR DIFFERENT TYPES OF
HAZARDS USING MORPHOLOGICAL
ANALYSIS
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FIRST THING WE DO IS THAT WE IDENTIFY
AND DEFINE MOST IMPORTANT PARAMETERS .
FOR OUR STUDY WE HAVE IDENTIFIED THE
FOLLOWINGS
HAZARDS
RISK REDUCTION STRATEGY
UNSAFE PHYSICAL CONDITIONS
ADEQUATE CAUTION MEASURES
ADEQUATE PREPAREDNESS MEASURES
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TAKING THESE PARAMETERS INTO
CONSIDERATION WE DEFINE VARIOUS
CONTIONS UNDER WHICH THESE
PARAMETERS CAN EXIST.
THESE CONDITIONS CAN BE WILD OR
ILLOGICAL . WE SIMPLY TAKE ALL THAT INTO
CONSIDERATION FOR THE TIME BEING
HAZARDS REDUCTION PHYSICAL CAUTION PREPAREDNESS
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HAZARDS REDUCTION
STRATEGY
PHYSICAL
CONDITIONS
CAUTION
MEASURES
PREPAREDNESS
MEASURES
EARTHQUAKE PREVENT
HAZARDITSELF
POPULATION
DENSITY
BUILDING STD.
FOR NEW
CONRTRUCTION
WARNING
SYSTEM
FLOODS REDUCE
SEVERITY OF
HAZARD
UNSAFE
LOCATION
RELEVENT
EDUCATION &
TRAINING
EVACUATION
SYSTEM
FIRE REDUCE
PHYSICAL
EXPOSURES
LACK
OF DISASTER
PLANNING
URBAN
RENOVATION
TROOPS
AVAILABILITY
TERRORISM REDUCE
CONSEQUENCES
RISK
TRANSFER
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y = These two conditions can/should co-
exist.
X = These two conditions cannot/should
not, co-exist.
EARTHQUAKE MORPHOLOGY
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EARTHQUAKE MORPHOLOGY
HAZARDS
RISK
REDUCTION
STRATEGY
UNSAFE
PHYSICAL
CONDITIONS
ADEQUATE
CAUTION
MEASURES
ADEQUATE
PREPAREDNESS
MEASURES
EARTHQUAKE PREVENT
HAZARD
ITSELF
POPULATION
DENSITY
BUILDING STD.
FOR NEW
CONRTRUCTION
WARNING
SYSTEM
FLOODS REDUCE
SEVERITY OF
HAZARD
UNSAFE
LOCATION
RELEVANT
EDUCATION &
TRAINING
EVACUATION
SYSTEM
FIRE REDUCE
PHYSICAL
EXPOSURES
LACK
OF DISASTER
PLANNING
URBAN
RENOVATION
TROOPS
AVAILABILITY
TERRORISM REDUCE
CONSEQUENCES
RISK
TRANSFER
POSSIBLE SOLUTION
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POSSIBLE SOLUTIONTOTAL NO. OF CONFIGURATIONS
1*2*3*3*3= 54
Earthquake/reduce consequences/population
density/building std. for new construction /evacuation system
Earthquake/reduce consequences/population
density/building std. for new construction /warning systemEarthquake/reduce consequences/population
density/building std. for new construction /troops availability
Earthquake/reduce consequences/population
density/ relevant education and training /troops availability
Earthquake/reduce consequences/population
density/ relevant education and training /warning system.
FLOOD MORPHOLOGY
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FLOOD MORPHOLOGY
HAZARDS
RISK
REDUCTION
STRATEGY
UNSAFE
PHYSICAL
CONDITIONS
ADEQUATE
CAUTION
MEASURES
ADEQUATE
PREPAREDNESS
MEASURES
EARTHQUAKE PREVENT
HAZARD
ITSELF
POPULATION
DENSITY
BUILDING STD.
FOR NEW
CONRTRUCTION
WARNING
SYSTEM
FLOODS REDUCESEVERITY OF
HAZARD
UNSAFELOCATION
RELEVENTEDUCATION &
TRAINING
EVACUATIONSYSTEM
FIRE REDUCE
PHYSICAL
EXPOSURES
LACK
OF DISASTER
PLANNING
URBAN
RENOVATION
TROOPS
AVAILABILITY
TERRORISM REDUCE
CONSEQUENCES
RISK
TRANSFER
POSSIBLE SOLUTION
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POSSIBLE SOLUTION
TOTAL NO. OF CONFIGURATIONS
1*2*2*2*3= 24
Floods/reduce consequences/unsafe location/ relevanteducation and training /warning system.
Floods/reduce consequences/unsafe location/ relevant
education and training /evacuation system.
Floods/reduce consequences/unsafe location/ relevanteducation and training /troops availability.
Floods/risk transfer/unsafe location/ relevant educationand training /troops availability.
Floods/risk transfer/unsafe location/ relevant education
and training /troops warning system.
FIRE MORPHOLOGY
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FIRE MORPHOLOGYHAZARDS
RISK
REDUCTION
STRATEGY
UNSAFE
PHYSICAL
CONDITIONS
ADEQUATE
CAUTION
MEASURES
ADEQUATE
PREPAREDNESS
MEASURES
EARTHQUAKE PREVENTHAZARD
ITSELF
POPULATIONDENSITY
BUILDING STD.FOR NEW
CONRTRUCTION
WARNINGSYSTEM
FLOODS REDUCE
SEVERITY OF
HAZARD
UNSAFE
LOCATION
RELEVENT
EDUCATION &
TRAINING
EVACUATION
SYSTEM
FIRE REDUCE
PHYSICAL
EXPOSURES
LACK
OF DISASTER
PLANNING
URBAN
RENOVATION
TROOPS
AVAILABILITY
TERRORISM REDUCE
CONSEQUENCES
RISK
TRANSFER
POSSIBLE SOLUTION
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POSSIBLE SOLUTION
NO. OF CONFIGURATION POSSIBLE
= 1*3*2*2*1= 12
FIRE/PREVENT HAZARD ITSELF/UNSAFE LOCATION/ RELEVENT
EDUCATION AND TRAINING/EVACUATION SYSTEM
FIRE/PREVENT HAZARD ITSELF/UNSAFE LOCATION/ BUILDINGSTD. FOR NEW CONTRUCTION/EVACUATION SYSTEM
FIRE/PREVENT HAZARD ITSELF/LACK OF DISASTER
PLANNING/ BUILDING STD. FOR NEW
CONTRUCTION/EVACUATION SYSTEM
FIRE/PREVENT HAZARD ITSELF/LACK OF DISASTER
PLANNING/RELEVENT EDUCATION AND
TRAINING/EVACUATION SYSTEM
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TERRORISM MORPHOLOGY
HAZARDS
RISK
REDUCTION
STRATEGY
UNSAFE
PHYSICAL
CONDITIONS
ADEQUATE
CAUTION
MEASURES
ADEQUATE
PREPAREDNESS
MEASURES
EARTHQUAKE PREVENT
HAZARD
ITSELF
POPULATION
DENSITY
BUILDING STD.
FOR NEW
CONRTRUCTION
WARNING
SYSTEM
FLOODS REDUCESEVERITY OF
HAZARD
UNSAFELOCATION
RELEVENTEDUCATION &
TRAINING
EVACUATIONSYSTEM
FIRE REDUCE
PHYSICALEXPOSURES
LACK
OF DISASTERPLANNING
URBAN
RENOVATION
TROOPS
AVAILABILITY
TERRORISM REDUCE
CONSEQUENCES
RISK
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POSSIBLE CONFIGURATION
1*1*1*1*1 = 1
TERRORISM/PREVENT HAZARD
ITSELF/UNSAFE LOCATION/ RELEVENT
EDUCATION AND TRAINING/TROOPSAVAILABILITY
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FINAL RESULT
TOTAL NO. OF CONFIGURATIONS = 540
TOTAL No. OF RELEVENT CONFIGURATIONS
=54 + 24 + 12 + 1 = 91
TOTAL No. OF IRRELEVENT CONFIGURATIONS
= 540 - 91 = 449
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POSSIBLE USE OF THIS STUDY
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW RESIDENCIAL AREAS
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW INDUSTRIAL AREAS
IMPLEMENTATION OF GOVT. POLICIES IN A
PARTICULAR GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS
ETC.
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CASE STUDY
1. Objective:- Improving existing models of the
car.
2. Analyze cars and list some of their
parameters.
Improving elements
Optional equipments
Internal processes
Temporary properties
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CONTD
3. Generate the variations for each parameter.
Which Improving elements can be found?
Which optional equipment can be offered to
customers?
Which are the different kinds of internal
processes in a car?
Which temporary properties can make a car
special in its early phases of life?
4 h ll h ibl l i
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4. Research all the possible solutions
to the problem.
5 T diff bi i
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5. Try different combinations
(randomly):
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Morphological Analysis
Random Combination: odour,
airconditioning, operator controlled ,new car
smell
Result: Fragrance Control System for cars
Advantages: With a touch of button, drivers
can choose jasmine ,mint or perfume scents
all blowing through air-conditioning system.
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Strengths & Weaknesses
Strengths
Richness of data
Systematic Analysis
Weaknesses
An overabundance of possibilities Human error
M th d l i l A h(t b t
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Methodological Approach(to combat
overabundance of possibilities)
Identification of economic, technical, andstrategic criteria to assess and select the best
solutions.
Identification of crucial components and theirclassification by criteria of weighted differences;and
Introduction of constraints of exclusion or
preference. This approach has been integrated into a micro-
software package (MOPPHOL).
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The Future Group
The Futures Group (TFG) has developed a
computer analysis program that facilitates the
process and organizes the output in priority.
TFG used a general permutation program,customized for food care, to analyze food storage
and food preparation technologies in priority.
Two permutation programs were run: a foodstorage program,and a food preparation
program.
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Contd..
These programs permuted all possible
combinations of elements from the three
subsystems to form a large set of potential
products.
For each subsystem element, two numbers
were entered to describe how well each
element met the two criteria:1. Breakthrough potential; and
2. Relationship to client company.