Monthly estimates from a practical perspective
Experiences from Finnish LFS
LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010Kalle Sinivuori, Statistics Finland
Finnish LFS
Monthly sample size is 12 000 Non-response rate is around 20 % => that means slightly
less than 10 000 interviews per month Computer-assisted questionnaire Most interviews by telephone (2 % face-to face) Panel; five rotation groups Ministry of Employment’s job seeker register is also used
as supplementary data in calibration
LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010
Dissemination of results
Main LFS results are published monthly, three weeks after the end of the reference month
More detailed results are published quarterly Annual publication includes yearly data and time series Database tables In addition
web articles on special themesother articles in periodicals and other publications
LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010
Publishing monthly and quaterly figures
http://www.tilastokeskus.fi/til/tyti/tie_en.html Publication day (roughly) three weeks after the end of the
reference month In March, June, September and December: monthly and
quarterly publication together In other months: short publication, only monthly results Monthly: basic indicators (employment and unemployment by sex,
age and province; employees by type of employment; seasonally adjusted trends, etc.)
Quaterly: basic indicators + employment by industry; employment by province; hours worked by industyry, etc.
LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010
Publishing monthly and quaterly figures
Monthly publication XML-based publication
including: 18 static html-tables, 4 figures and a quality description.
• All this in three languages• HTML- and pdf-formats
In addition: one database table (pc-axis)
Quaterly publication XML-based publication
including: 25 static html-tables, 4 figures and a quality description.
• All this in three languages• HTML- and pdf-formats
In addition: four database tables (pc-axis)
LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010
Table 1. Examples of the accuracy of monthly estimates of different sizes
Monthly estimate
Monthly estimate's95% confidence
interval
Standard error
Relativestandard
error persons persons persons %
Employed
2 400 000 ± 27 800 14 200 0,6
1 200 000 ± 21 000 10 700 0,9
600 000 ± 15 300 7 800 1,3
300 000 ± 11 600 5 900 2,0
100 000 ± 6 700 3 400 3,4
50 000 ± 4 700 2 400 4,8
10 000 ± 2 900 1 500 15,0
Unemployed
230 000 ± 15 100 7 700 3,3
120 000 ± 11 800 6 000 5,0
90 000 ± 10 800 5 500 6,1
60 000 ± 9 000 4 600 7,7
30 000 ± 6 900 3 500 11,7
20 000 ± 5 100 2 600 13,0
10 000 ± 3 700 1 900 19,0
LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010
Table 2. Examples of the accuracy of quarterly estimates of different sizes and comparison to the monthly estimates
Monthly /Quarterlyestimate
Quarterly estimate's95%
confidence interval
Monthly estimate's95%
confidence interval
persons persons persons
Employed
2 400 000 ± 16 100 ± 27 800
1 200 000 ± 12 500 ± 21 000
600 000 ± 8 800 ± 15 300
300 000 ± 6 700 ± 11 600
100 000 ± 4 700 ± 6 700
50 000 ± 3 900 ± 4 700
10 000 ± 2 000 ± 2 900
Unemployed
230 000 ± 8 800 ± 15 100
120 000 ± 6 900 ± 11 800
90 000 ± 6 100 ± 10 800
60 000 ± 5 100 ± 9 000
30 000 ± 3 500 ± 6 900
20 000 ± 3 100 ± 5 100
10 000 ± 2 400 ± 3 700
LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010
Policies in publishing monthly figures
Additional information: especially trends adjusted for seasonal and random variation
Co-operation with the Ministry of Labour’s statistical unit => closer interaction started two years ago.
Pre-publication-day meetings => One day before publication we have a meeting where we discuss about possible questions coming from our audience (especially from the media).
LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010
Monthly publishing during the recession
Recession in Finland began in late 2008 Annual change in GPD was -2,4 % in last quarter of 2008 Register based unemployment figures (Ministry of Labour)
reacted faster, from November 2008. LFS figures showed statistically significant annual changes
(upwards) starting from February 2009.
LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010
Economic growth and employment; 1990/IQ - 2009/IVQ
LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
year/ quarter
GPD Annual change
Employment, annual change
%
Monthly publishing during the recession… continue
Despite small differences in annual changes, LFS and Ministry of Labour unemployment statistics have shown quite similar results during this recession.
Unemployment figures have grown and reasons are same in both statistics => unemployment figures have grown among men, 15 to 24-year-olds, in industries involving men (manufacturing, construction, wholesale) and in areas where these industries are strong (Southern and Western Finland).
LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010
Discussion
Monthly or quartely publication ?=> I would say: monthly
Why ?• Question of profile in national LFS• Question of sample size• Question of quality => Finnish LFS is good enough for
monthly publishing.
LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010
LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010
e-mail: [email protected]
http://tilastokeskus.fi/til/tyti/index_en.html
Thank you for your attention!