L/O/G/O
Modernization and Fertility: A Critical Essay
Richard A. Easterlin
Presented by: Sundari Budiani
Theoritical and Empirical Implications
Hub. antara Modernisasi & Fertilitas
Pengertian Modernisasi
Contents
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Pendahuluan1
Pendahuluan● What is the most challenging problem in
the social study of human fertility?It is the causes of the shift from high to low fertility during the process of modernization
● Preceding papers supply, demand, or regulation costs
● Present paper clarify the conceptual links between modernization & fertility
Economic: sustained raise in real output per capita. & changes in techniques of producing, transporting & distributing goods
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2
3
The Nature of ModernizationModernization defined as transformation in:
Sosial & demographic: involves significant alterations in fertility, mortality & migration; in place of residence; in family size & structure; educational system; & public health services.
Human personality: increase openness to new experience, increased independence from parental authority.
Conceptual links between Modernization & Fertility Behavior
Basic Determinants
Reg. Cost (RC)
Demand of Children (Cd)Supply of Children (Cn)
Deliberate Fert Control Var.
Other ProximateDeterminants
Children Ever Born
Proximate Determinants
Basic Determinants Proximate Determinants Children Ever Born
Links from Modernization to Potential Supply, Demand & Reg. Cost
Aspects of Modernization
Factors Trough Which Fertility Control is Influenced
Demand (Cd) Supply (Cn) Reg. Cost (RC)
Tastes Income Prices Nat. Fert
Surv. Prospe
cts
Subj. costs
Market costs
Better public health & med care
+ +
Growth in formal education
- - + + - -
Urbanization - - - -
New consumer goods -
New fert. Control methods
- -
Links PS, D & RC to Fert. Control & Fertility
Modernization lower the demand for children introduces new goods and life styles (the households shift the expenditure toward new purposes inc. Having & raising children).
Modernization fertility control, e.g: modern condom and improved methods of induced abortion, pill and IUD.
Modernization process shifts typical household from a situation where childbearing is a matter ‘taken for granted’ to one that poses difficult problems of individual choice regarding the limitation of family size.
Modernization shifts motivation of individual couples and regulation costs push them to practice deliberate family size limitation.
Empirical Findings
Time
Surviving Children per Married Woman
Beginning of fertility decline in A
Beginning of fertility decline in B
Hypothetical Trends in Supply (Cn) and Demand (Cd) in Two Countries and the Timing of Fertility Decline
CnA = Cn
B
CdA
CdB
The Trend in Fertility Differentials by Socioeconomic Status (SES)
High
Surviving Children per Married Woman
Low
Surviving Children per Married Woman
Education
Cd
Cn
(c) Premodern (d) Early Modern
(a) Premodern (b) Early Modern
Hypothetical Relationship Between Supply (Cn) and Demand (Cd) and Education and Age in Premodern and Early Modern Settings
LowEducation
High
15-19 40-44Age
15-19Age
40-44
Cd
Cd
Cd
Cn
Cn
Cn
L/O/G/O
Thank You!