Models of Famine, Early Warning Models of Famine, Early Warning
Systems and Policy ResponsesSystems and Policy Responses
Stephen DevereuxStephen Devereux
Institute of Development Studies (UK)Institute of Development Studies (UK)
Summer School on “Food Security and
Famine Prevention in Developing Countries”
Civita Castellana, Italy ~ 13 July 2006
Why do famines happen?Why do famines happen?
Climatic Theories
Demographic Theories
Sen’s ‘Entitlement Approach’
‘Complex Emergencies’
Famine early warning and responseFamine early warning and response
What is ‘famine’?What is ‘famine’?
New directions in famine thinkingNew directions in famine thinking
““A famine is a food shortage leading A famine is a food shortage leading to widespread death by starvation.”to widespread death by starvation.”
But ~ famines have occurred:But ~ famines have occurred:
with no food shortage with no food shortage [[Bangladesh 1974Bangladesh 1974];];
where death was caused by disease, not where death was caused by disease, not
starvation starvation [[Sudan 1984Sudan 1984];];
with no “excess mortality” with no “excess mortality” [[Sahel 1972-74Sahel 1972-74].].
WHAT IS FAMINE?WHAT IS FAMINE?
““famine is a socio-economic process which causes famine is a socio-economic process which causes
the accelerated destitution of the most vulnerable, the accelerated destitution of the most vulnerable,
marginal and least powerful groups in a community, marginal and least powerful groups in a community,
to a point where they can no longer, as a group, to a point where they can no longer, as a group,
maintain a sustainable livelihood.”maintain a sustainable livelihood.”
~ Peter Walker (1989)~ Peter Walker (1989)
A good “outsider” definition:
Triggers Processes
CLIMATOLOGY
Drought
Floods
Desertification
Global warming
DEMOGRAPHY / NUTRITION
Epidemics Malthusianism
ECONOMICS
Market failure
Entitlement failure
Poverty
Infrastructure
POLITICS
War
Response failure
Colonialism
Govt. policy
WHY DO FAMINES HAPPEN?WHY DO FAMINES HAPPEN?
Climate TheoriesClimate Theories
Theories: • “Famine belts”• “Drought causes famine”• “Climate change”.
Negative impacts:
• Crop production• Assets (e.g. livestock)• Food prices• Community assistance.
Critique: • Partial explanation• “Inability to cope” is the problem• Vulnerability needs to be addressed.
Demographic TheoriesDemographic Theories
(1) Population increases indefinitely, but land is strictly limited;
(2) The demand for food will eventually exceed potential food production;
(3) Famine acts as a “natural check” on population growth.
Critique:
Malthus:
(1) Malthus failed to foresee: the agricultural revolution; the transport revolution; the industrial revolution; the demographic transition.
(2) Famine is not a “Malthusian leveller”.
Demographic Impact of China's 1958-62 FamineDemographic Impact of China's 1958-62 Famine
550
650
750
850
950
1050
Year
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
Po
pu
lati
on
(m
illio
ns)
Entitlement ApproachEntitlement Approach
Four categories of entitlement:Four categories of entitlement:
Entitlement category In other words…
Production-based what you grow
Trade-based what you buy
Own-labour-based what you earn
Transfer-based what you are given
““Entitlement failure”Entitlement failure”
Subsis-Subsis-tencetence
Labour
Trade Labour
ProductionTrade
Production
Pre-Pre-DroughtDrought
DroughtDrought
““Entitlement failure”Entitlement failure”
Subsis-Subsis-tencetence
Labour Transfers
Trade Labour
ProductionTrade
Production
Pre-Pre-DroughtDrought
DroughtDrought
Strengths:Strengths:
Sen’s critique:Sen’s critique:
More critiques:More critiques:
Demand-side emphasis
Disaggregates food availability
Analysis of “boom famines”.
“Fuzzy” entitlements
Legal rights only
“Choosing to starve”?
Legalistic terminology
Apolitical and ahistorical
Dependency entitlements?
Famine mortality.
Complex EmergenciesComplex Emergencies
• War disrupts food production
• Food stores are destroyed or appropriated
• Trade and aid flows are disrupted
• Local economies are undermined
• Community coping strategies are undermined
• Government services are interrupted
• Refugees are created.
Famine as a Famine as a sequencesequence of of “entitlement “entitlement failures”failures”
PRODUCTION PRODUCTION
ENTITLEMENTSENTITLEMENTS
Drought / El Niño / ConflictDrought / El Niño / Conflict
Population (Malthusianism)Population (Malthusianism)
MARKET‑BASED MARKET‑BASED
ENTITLEMENTSENTITLEMENTS
Market failure/ collapseMarket failure/ collapse
Exchange entitlement failureExchange entitlement failure
TRANSFER TRANSFER
ENTITLEMENTSENTITLEMENTS
Informal safety nets failureInformal safety nets failure
Food aid failureFood aid failure
“ “Anti-famine “social contracts” Anti-famine “social contracts” [India][India]
Accountability and the “right to food”Accountability and the “right to food”
Donor – Government relations Donor – Government relations [Malawi][Malawi]
““Pre-modern” and “Post-modern” famine Pre-modern” and “Post-modern” famine [Iraq][Iraq]
“ “New Variant Famine” New Variant Famine” [HIV/AIDS].[HIV/AIDS].
NEW DIRECTIONS IN FAMINE THINKINGNEW DIRECTIONS IN FAMINE THINKING
Democracy and famine Democracy and famine preventionprevention
INDIAINDIA AFRICAAFRICA
Limited civil conflictLimited civil conflict Conflict and insecurityConflict and insecurity
Free pressFree press Constrained pressConstrained press
Vigorous civil societyVigorous civil society Weak civil societyWeak civil society
Low donor dependenceLow donor dependence High donor dependenceHigh donor dependence
““Anti-famine contract”Anti-famine contract” No anti-famine contractNo anti-famine contract
No More FaminesNo More Famines Persistent FaminesPersistent Famines
Established democracyEstablished democracy Emerging democraciesEmerging democracies
FAMINE EARLY WARNINGFAMINE EARLY WARNING
Famine Intensity ScaleFamine Intensity Scale:: 1 = Food insecurity1 = Food insecurity 2 = Food crisis2 = Food crisis 3 = Famine3 = Famine 4 = Severe famine4 = Severe famine 5 = Extreme famine5 = Extreme famine
Early Warning IndicatorsEarly Warning Indicators:: Food AvailabilityFood Availability = Harvests; food stocks = Harvests; food stocks Access to FoodAccess to Food = Market prices; Dietary Diversity = Market prices; Dietary Diversity Outcome Indicators = Malnutrition; CMR = Malnutrition; CMR Social IndicatorsSocial Indicators = Coping Strategies Index. = Coping Strategies Index.
Application of “famine scales” in SomaliaApplication of “famine scales” in Somalia
Building accountability from above:Building accountability from above: First levelFirst level: National Government: National Government
National
government
Affected population
Building accountability from above:Building accountability from above: Second levelSecond level: Government + : Government + DonorsDonors
World Food Programme
National
government
Affected population
Seco
nd
levelF
irst level
Main
path
way to
accou
ntab
ility
Building accountability from above:Building accountability from above: Alternate routeAlternate route: “Food Security : “Food Security Ombudsperson”Ombudsperson”
World Food Programme
National
government
Affected population
Food security ombudsperson
Seco
nd
levelF
irst level
Altern
ative path
way to
accou
ntab
ility
Main
path
way to
accou
ntab
ility
Building accountability from above:Building accountability from above: Alternate routeAlternate route: Ombudsperson + “Right : Ombudsperson + “Right to Food”to Food”
World Food Programme
UN Secretariat:
“Right to Food”
National
government
UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)
Affected population
Food security ombudsperson
Seco
nd
levelF
irst level
Altern
ative path
way to
accou
ntab
ility
Main
path
way to
accou
ntab
ility
CONCLUSION: THE “NEW CONCLUSION: THE “NEW FAMINES”FAMINES”
Past famines were understood as “acts of God” Past famines were understood as “acts of God” (natural disasters, natural population growth);(natural disasters, natural population growth);
Most contemporary famines are “acts of man” Most contemporary famines are “acts of man” (they are caused by human (they are caused by human actionaction or or inactioninaction););
Even when production and market failures occur, Even when production and market failures occur, famines are not inevitable until famines are not inevitable until transferstransfers also fail; also fail;
““New famines” are more New famines” are more politicalpolitical because they because they are almost always are almost always predictablepredictable and and preventablepreventable..