![Page 1: Modelling marine populations – from physics to evolution](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013101/56813ad5550346895da30bf5/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Modelling marine populations – from physics to evolution
A Nordic Marine Academy Course
held 10 – 16 October 2005
at Espegrend Field Station, Bergen, Norway
![Page 2: Modelling marine populations – from physics to evolution](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013101/56813ad5550346895da30bf5/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
The oceans are changing
• Marine ecosystems are commonly perceived as mechanical systems.
• Perturbations are reversible.
• Species and interactions are constant.
• Regression analysis can predict the future.
TimeTime
??
![Page 3: Modelling marine populations – from physics to evolution](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013101/56813ad5550346895da30bf5/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
However…
• Physical conditions go beyond historic ranges.
• Pollutants stress organisms.
• Ecocystems are qualitatively different.
• Depleted stock are not recovering.
Worm, B. and Myers, R.A. 2003. Meta-analysis of cod-shrimp interactions reveals top-down control in oceanic food webs. Ecology, 84, 162-173.
Levitus, S., Antonov, J.I., Boyer, T.P., Stephens, C. 2000. Warming of the World Ocean. Science, 287, 2225-2229.
Heat content in upper 3000 m.
![Page 4: Modelling marine populations – from physics to evolution](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013101/56813ad5550346895da30bf5/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
• Several equilibria- also unstable ones.
• Hysteresis – development may follow alternative trajectories.
• Irreversibility?
![Page 5: Modelling marine populations – from physics to evolution](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013101/56813ad5550346895da30bf5/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Regimeshifts
Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S., Foley, J.A., Folke, C., and Walker, B. 2001. Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature, 413, 591-596.
![Page 6: Modelling marine populations – from physics to evolution](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013101/56813ad5550346895da30bf5/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
World catches
![Page 7: Modelling marine populations – from physics to evolution](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013101/56813ad5550346895da30bf5/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Fishing down
![Page 8: Modelling marine populations – from physics to evolution](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013101/56813ad5550346895da30bf5/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Altered ecosystem structure:Kelp forests
Before Before humanshumans
With With humanshumans
![Page 9: Modelling marine populations – from physics to evolution](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013101/56813ad5550346895da30bf5/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
EstuariesBefore Before humanshumans
With With humanshumans
Jackson, J.B.C. et al. 2001. Historical overfishing and the recent collapse of coastal ecosystems. Science, 293, 629-637.
![Page 10: Modelling marine populations – from physics to evolution](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013101/56813ad5550346895da30bf5/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Marine ecosystems are increasingly dominated by human intervention
• Climate change, pollution, habitat destruction, fisheries…
• BUT: will mechanisms also change?
• Can we build a predictive science– through understanding mechanisms, – and how they scale from physics to
evolution?
![Page 11: Modelling marine populations – from physics to evolution](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013101/56813ad5550346895da30bf5/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Physical Physical forcingforcingLight,Light,
temperature,temperature,turbulence,turbulence,turbidity,turbidity,salinity,salinity,
pH…pH…
Individual Individual statestateAge, Age, sex,sex,size,size,
energy reserves,energy reserves,position…position…
Trade-offs emerge
A population is A population is a collection of a collection of individuals and individuals and
their actionstheir actions
Patterns emergeEvolutionemerges
![Page 12: Modelling marine populations – from physics to evolution](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013101/56813ad5550346895da30bf5/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Physical Physical forcingforcing
Individual Individual statestate
Trade-offs emerge
A population is A population is a collection of a collection of individuals and individuals and
their actionstheir actions
Patterns emergeEvolutionemerges
Helge DrangeChristoph Heinze
Andy VisserPer JonssonØyvind Fiksen
Christian JørgensenGeir Huse
Espen Strand
Ulf DieckmannBruno Ernande
Mikko Heino, Bruno Ernande,Ulf Dieckmann, Erin Dunlop
![Page 13: Modelling marine populations – from physics to evolution](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013101/56813ad5550346895da30bf5/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
![Page 14: Modelling marine populations – from physics to evolution](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013101/56813ad5550346895da30bf5/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Student presentations
Monday: Oceanography, biogeochemical cycles, and phytoplankton
• Kristine Skovgaard Madsen• Ingrid H. Ellingsen• Cecilie Hansen• Olivia Langhamer• Inga Hense• Elin Lindehoff • Wanderson Fernandes de Carvalho
![Page 15: Modelling marine populations – from physics to evolution](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013101/56813ad5550346895da30bf5/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Student presentations
Tuesday: Zooplankton
• Agurtzane Urtizberea• Øystein Varpe• Paolo Simonelli• Thomas Torgersen
![Page 16: Modelling marine populations – from physics to evolution](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013101/56813ad5550346895da30bf5/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Student presentations
Wednesday: Coexistence and speciation
• Martin Pedersen• Sarah Robinson Wolrath• Raul Primicerio• Sigrunn Eliassen• Varvara Fazalova• Guðni Magnús Eiríksson• Jostein Starrfelt• Jan Heuschele
![Page 17: Modelling marine populations – from physics to evolution](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013101/56813ad5550346895da30bf5/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Student presentations
Thursday: Fish early life stages and recruitment
• Krzysztof Świtek• Frode Bendixen Vikebø• Trond Kristiansen• Tian Tian• Ivo Orellana• Gert Virenfeldt• Päivi Laine• Jónas Páll Jónasson• Kjersti Eline Larsen
![Page 18: Modelling marine populations – from physics to evolution](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013101/56813ad5550346895da30bf5/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Student presentations
Saturday: Fisheries-induced evolution
• Davnah Urbach• Paul Venturelli• Anne Maria Eikeset• Shahaama Abdul Sattar• Karin Nilsson• Dorothy Dankel• Geir Halnes• Erin Dunlop
![Page 19: Modelling marine populations – from physics to evolution](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013101/56813ad5550346895da30bf5/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Administrative information
• Travel costs.• Course diploma.• Lock office building from dinner starts until
breakfast is over.• Please be quiet after midnight.• Computers:
– Computer room with printer.– Internet in rooms.
• Discuss, discuss, discuss!
![Page 20: Modelling marine populations – from physics to evolution](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013101/56813ad5550346895da30bf5/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Social information
• Food:– Allergies, vegetarians…– Snack when you like!– …but help us keep the kitchen tidy.
• Soda, beer, and wine.• Sauna (and swimming).• Evening in Bergen.• Shops…
ShopShop
![Page 21: Modelling marine populations – from physics to evolution](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013101/56813ad5550346895da30bf5/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Questions?