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Modeling bark beetle effects in a fireshed assessment
An application of the Westwide Pine Beetle Model & the FFE in the
Deschutes National Forest
Andrew McMahan1
Alan Ager2, Helen Maffei3, Eric L Smith4
1 Systems Analyst, ITX, Inc., Ft. Collins2 Operations Research Analyst, PNW Research Station3 Forest Pathologist, Deschutes National Forest, Bend4 Program Manager, Quantitative Analysis, FHTET, Ft Collins
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Primary Objective
• Simulate effects of bark beetles on stands in context of landscape-scale fuel mgmt and wildlife habitat mgmt projects– How might beetle dynamics respond to fuel
treatments?– How might beetle dynamics affect fuel
dynamics (spatially and temporally)?
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Secondary Objectives
• Simulate beetle “sanitation” concurrent with simulated thinning treatments
• Consider dwarf mistletoe effects on beetle dynamics (partially done)
• Consider fire effects on bark beetle dynamics (not done)– simulate effects of live, fire-scorched trees on
stand attractiveness to beetles
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Scenario design• With & without thinning treatment• With & without beetles
NoTRT-bNoTRT+BTRT-bTRT+B
• Treatments include WWPBM “sanitation”– Sanitation removes dead, beetle-infested trees
and their beetles• Treatments are SDI-based thins from
below (thinning by point)
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Simulation Details
• SDIMAX for pines set to 429 (Cochran)• If BSDI > 236 (55% of 429),
and year=2003, then...• SetPThin to target SDI=150 (from below)• Favor retention of pines and DF
• Run PPE for 7 3-yr cycles (2000-2021)
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WWPB Model details
• Beetles (BKP) initialized into stands containing “significant” amounts of host in an amount = 1% of host BA
• “Severe” bark beetle outbreak initiated in simulation year=2005 for 5 years
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Oregon
Deschutes National Forest
Five Buttes Analysis Area
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Davis Fire (2003)
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Mixed Conifer PAGs
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
NoTRT-b All NoTRT+B All
TRT-b All TRT+B All
Average stand Basal Area (sq ft / acre)Green=No Beetles
Red=with beetles
Dashed=treated
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0
2
4
6
82000 2005 2010 2015 2020
BA
K/a
cre
TRT other
TRT MC
NOTRT other
NOTRT MC
Basal area beetle-killed (BAK; sq ft / acre) in Mixed Conifer (MC) PAG and “Other” PAGs
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0
2
4
6
82000 2005 2010 2015 2020
BA
K/a
cre
NOTRT other NOTRT MC
Basal area beetle-killed (BAK) No Treatment (NoTRT) scenario
Mixed Conifer (MC) and “other” PAGs
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0
2
4
6
82000 2005 2010 2015 2020
BA
K/a
cre
TRT other TRT MC
Basal area beetle-killed (BAK) Thinned (TRT) scenario
Mixed Conifer (MC) and “other” PAGs
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0
2
4
6
82000 2005 2010 2015 2020
BA
K/a
cre
TRT MC NOTRT MC
Basal area beetle-killed (BAK) Mixed Conifer (MC) PAG
Both TRT & NoTRT scenarios
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0
2
4
6
82000 2005 2010 2015 2020
BA
K/a
cre
TRT other NOTRT other
Basal area beetle-killed (BAK) “Other” PAGs
Both TRT & NoTRT scenarios
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Orange: experience greater simulated beetle mortalityafter TRTGreens & blue: “protected”
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
NoTrt+B NoTrt-b
TRT+B TRT-b
Potential Volume Mortality (Severe Fire)
(Millions of Cu Ft)
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0
10
20
30
40
50
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Thou
sand
s of
Acr
es
NoTrt-b NoTrt+B
Trt-b Trt+B
Acres Active Crown Fire Potential
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Polygons with Active Crown Fire Potential in 2020Landscapes Without Treatments Without Beetles (ORANGE) on top ofWith Beetles (RED)
Red: stands classed as“Active” Crown Fireif beetle outbreak
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Polygons with Active Crown Fire Potential in 2020Landscapes With Treatments Without Beetles (ORANGE) on top ofWith Beetles (RED)
Red: stands classed as“Active” Crown Fireif beetle outbreak
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Surface Fuels2020Thinned landscapeNo Beetles
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Surface Fuels2020Thinned landscapeWith Beetles
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Orange Blue:Increase in surface fuelsdue to beetles
Treated Landscape 2018
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Orange Blue:Increase in surface fuelsdue to beetles
Untreated Landscape 2018
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Orange Blue:Decrease in standing fuelsdue to beetles
Untreated Landscape 2018
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Orange Blue:Decrease in standing fuelsdue to beetles
Treated Landscape 2018
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Mixed Conifer Forest types
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000N
OTR
T-b
NO
TRT+
BTR
T-b
TRT+
B
NO
TRT-
bN
OTR
T+B
TRT-
bTR
T+B
NO
TRT-
bN
OTR
T+B
TRT-
bTR
T+B
NO
TRT-
bN
OTR
T+B
TRT-
bTR
T+B
NO
TRT-
bN
OTR
T+B
TRT-
bTR
T+B
NO
TRT-
bN
OTR
T+B
TRT-
bTR
T+B
NO
TRT-
bN
OTR
T+B
TRT-
bTR
T+B
Acr
es
OM
OS
YM
UR
SE
SI
Treatment Effect Beetle Effects
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"Other" forest types
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
NO
TRT-
bN
OTR
T+B
TRT-
bTR
T+B
NO
TRT-
bN
OTR
T+B
TRT-
bTR
T+B
NO
TRT-
bN
OTR
T+B
TRT-
bTR
T+B
NO
TRT-
bN
OTR
T+B
TRT-
bTR
T+B
NO
TRT-
bN
OTR
T+B
TRT-
bTR
T+B
NO
TRT-
bN
OTR
T+B
TRT-
bTR
T+B
NO
TRT-
bN
OTR
T+B
TRT-
bTR
T+B
acre
s
OM
OS
YM
UR
SE
SI
Growth Effects Beetle Effects
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Discussion: BKP migration
• Simulated beetles efficiently find remaining host
• How realistically does the WWPBM simulate beetle migration?– Should in-flight beetle mortality algorithms be
adjusted to account for distance traveled?
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Orange: experience greater simulated beetle mortalityafter TRTGreens & blue: “protected”
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Discussion: SDIMAX
• Although FVS users may explicitly enter site-specific SDIMAX values, they can be overwritten by FVS when input treelists “disagree”
• Should FVS handle SDIMAX readjustments differently? How?
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Summary• WWPB Model can be used in landscape
analyses to simulate effects of beetles on landscape fuel dynamics
• WWPB Model is sensitive to changes in host availability
• ArcFuels—w/ FVS-DB—streamlines landscape-scale FVS simulation-building
• ArcFuels—w/ FVS-DB—simplifies mapping FVS output data
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AcknowledgementsWestern Wildland Threat Assessment Center
Prineville
Jim StoneDana Simon
Lance David, ITX, Inc (FHTET)Gary Dixon, FMSC
Frank Krist, FHTETVern Thomas, ITX, Inc. (FHTET)
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END
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0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
BK
PNOTRT
TRT(wSAN)
SAN_Only(NoTRT)
TRT (withoutSAN)
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In all cases BAHost must be > 50 AND BA total > 100 sq ft
Case 1: all stands that are MIXED CONIFER ("MC"), and meet above criteriaCase 2: For those that are NOT classed as mixed conifer,they must either:a) have > 100 tpa LPP > 9"dbh, ORb) have > 50% host AND >50% of the host must be PP