Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Millennium Development GoalsEmployment Indicators
Theo Sparreboom
Employment TrendsInternational Labour Organization
Geneva, Switzerland
AstanaOctober 2009
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
MDG Employment IndicatorsOverview
Background
Employment indicators
Global and regional estimates and trends
Monitoring national labour markets
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Following the 2005 World Summit, and the work of the Commission for Social Development as well as the Inter-Agency and Expert Group on MDG indicators, a new target has been included under MDG1 (Target 1b):
Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including for women and young people
MDG Employment IndicatorsBackground
The new target is monitored using four new employment indicators, which are additional to the existing indicator under MDG3 on gender equality.
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
MDG Employment IndicatorsBackground
• All five employment indicators (under MDG1b and MDG3) are explained in detail in the Guide to the new Millennium Development Goals Employment Indicators, which is available at:
http://www.ilo.org/public/english/employment/docu/index.htm
• The Guide includes definitions, data sources, calculations and analytical examples.
• The Guide also includes the full set of Decent Work Indicators, which allows for comprehensive monitoring of decent work.
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
MDG1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, Target B (‘decent work’)
Employment-to-population ratios for persons aged 15+ and youth (15-24) by sex
Vulnerable employment rate by sex
Working poverty rate
Labour productivity growth rate
MDG Employment Indicators
MDG3 Promote gender equality and empower women
Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Employment-to-population ratios for persons aged 15+ and youth (15-24) by sex
The EPR measures the proportion of a country’s working age population that is employed
EPR= Total employment/working age population * 100%
Source of data: labour force survey or other household survey/population census with data on population and employment
MDG1B indicators Employment-to-population ratio
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
There is no single ‘correct’ employment-to-population ratio, but national EPRs are typically between 50-75 per cent
Careful analysis of EPRs can be used to identify labour market issues such as low incomes, inadequate social security or gender imbalances. Analysis should cover comparisons of EPRs between labour market groups defined by sex or age, international comparisons, comparisons over time, etc.
Analysis of labour market issues often necessitates investigation of additional indicators, e.g. vulnerable employment rates, unemployment rates, or enrolment rates in education.
MDG1B indicators Employment-to-population ratio
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
MDG1B indicators Employment-to-population ratio
Source: ILO, Trends Econometric Models, July 2009
50.0
51.0
52.0
53.0
54.0
55.0
56.0
57.0
58.0
59.0
60.0
61.0
62.0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
(%)
World Developed Economies & European UnionCentral & South Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS
Employment-to-population ratio, selected regions, 1991-2008
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Source: ILO, Trends Econometric Models, July 2009
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
(%)
Both sexes Male Female
Source: ILO, Trends Econometric Models, July 2009
MDG1B indicators Employment-to-population ratio
Employment-to-population ratio, CSEE & CIS, 1991-2008, by sex
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Vulnerable employment rate for persons aged 15+ by sex
The vulnerable employment rate is a measure of the more vulnerable statuses of employment, namely own account workers and contributing family workers
Vulnerable employment rate = (number of own-account workers + number of contributing family workers)/total employment * 100%
The rate is typically related to level of GDP per capita
Source of data: labour force survey or other household surveys with data on status in employment
MDG1B indicators Vulnerable employment rate
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
MDG1B indicators Vulnerable employment rate
Source: ILO, Key Indicators of the Labour Market, 5 th ed., 2007
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
%
Vulnerable employment rate, selected countries ranked by GDP per capita
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Source: ILO, Trends Econometric Models, July 2009
MDG1B indicators Vulnerable employment rate
1,300,000
1,350,000
1,400,000
1,450,000
1,500,000
1,550,000
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Vul
nera
ble
empl
oym
ent (
mill
ions
)
48.0
49.0
50.0
51.0
52.0
53.0
54.0
Share of vulnerable em
ployment (%
)
Global vulnerable employment
Global vulnerable employment as share of total employment
Global vulnerable employment rate, 1997-2007
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Working poverty rate for persons aged 15+
The working poor are defined as employed persons living in a household whose members are estimated to be below the nationally-defined poverty line
Working poverty rate = working poor/total employment* 100%
Source of data: household surveys with both employment and income & expenditure data; if data on employment and poverty come from different sources, an approximation may be used to arrive at the working poverty rate (see the Guide to the new Millennium Development Goals Employment Indicators)
MDG1B indicators Working poverty rate
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
MDG1B indicators Working poverty rate
Working poverty US$ 1.25, by region, 1997 and 2007
Source: ILO, Trends Econometric Models, July 2009
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Central &South
EasternEurope
(non-EU) &CIS
East Asia South EastAsia & the
Pacific
South Asia LatinAmerica &
theCaribbean
Middle East North Africa Sub-Saharan
Africa
%
1997 2007
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Labour productivity represents the amount of output achieved per unit of labour input
Labour productivity = GDP [measured at constant market prices in national currency]/ total employment
Labour productivity growth rate is measured as the annual change in GDP per person employed
Labour productivity can be used to assess to which extent the economic environment allows for the creation of decent employment opportunities
Source of data: labour force survey or other household survey/population census with data on employment, in combination with data from national accounts
MDG1B indicators Growth rate of labour productivity
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
MDG1B indicators Growth rate of labour productivity
Source: ILO, Trends Econometric Models, July 2009
2.1
1.3
5.1
7.8
3.3
4.9
1.1
1.8
1.4
2.4
0
7,500
15,000
22,500
30,000
37,500
45,000
52,500
60,000
67,500
75,000
World DevelopedEconomies
&European
Union
Central &South
EasternEurope
(non-EU) &CIS
East Asia South EastAsia & the
Pacific
South Asia LatinAmerica &
theCaribbean
Middle East NorthAfrica
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Pro
du
ctiv
ity
leve
l (c
on
sta
nt
200
5 P
PP
US
$)
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
Pro
du
ctivity g
row
th ra
te (%
)
Productivity level, constant 2005 PPP$ Productivity growth rate, 2000-2008
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
MDG Employment IndicatorsGlobal & regional estimates and trends
• More detailed analysis is provided in Global Employment Trends reports and updates, which include additional indicators, available at:http://www.ilo.org/trends
• Global Employment Trends reports and updates are based on country information, in particular information from labour force surveys stored in international repositories (ILO, OECD, etc.)
• In addition, (benchmark) data on population (UN), labour force (ILO), GDP (IMF and World Bank), and poverty (World Bank) is used.
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
MDG Employment IndicatorsGlobal & regional estimates and trends
• The series of Global Employment Trends uses econometric models to address the issue of missing values at the country level
• The main purpose of the models is to generate regional estimates in the absence of a complete set of country data on employment, unemployment and working poverty
• The models are also used to generate short term projections (scenarios) at the regional and global level, based on a set of specific assumptions
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Global & regional estimates and trendsLabour market scenarios for 2009
Global employment-to-population rate, 2000- 2009
59.3
60.3
59.759.9
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Empl
oym
ent (
mill
ions
)
58.0
58.5
59.0
59.5
60.0
60.5
61.0
61.5
62.0
Employm
ent -to-population ratio (%)
Scenario 1 Employment
Scenario 2 Employment
Scenario 3 Employment
Scenario 1 Employment rate
Scenario 2 Employment rate
Scenario 3 Employment rate
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Global & regional estimates and trendsLabour market scenarios for 2009
Employment-to-population rate in CSEE&CIS, 2000- 2009
51.6
53.0
52.2
52.3
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Empl
oym
ent (
mill
ions
)
51
51.5
52
52.5
53
53.5
Employm
ent-to-population ratio (%)
Scenario 1 Employment
Scenario 2 Employment
Scenario 3 Employment
Scenario 1 Employment rate
Scenario 2 Employment rate
Scenario 3 Employment rate
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
11.5
9.0
10.5
10.3
2
6
10
14
18
22
26
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Une
mpl
oym
ent (
mill
ions
)
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
Unem
ployment rate (%
)
Scenario 3 Unemployment
Scenario 2 Unemployment
Scenario 1 Unemployment
Scenario 1 Unemployment rate
Scenario 2 Unemployment rate
Scenario 3 Unemployment rate
Global & regional estimates and trendsLabour market scenarios for 2009
Unemployment rate in CSEE&CIS, 2000- 2009
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
19.2
25.5
21.3
17.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Vuln
erab
le e
mpl
oym
ent (
mill
ions
)
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
28.0
30.0
Vulnerable employm
ent rate (%)
Scenario 3 Vulnerable employment
Scenario 2 Vulnerable employment
Scenario 1 Vulnerable employment
Scenario 1 Vulnerable employment rate
Scenario 2 Vulnerable employment rate
Scenario 3 Vulnerable employment rate
Global & regional estimates and trendsLabour market scenarios for 2009
Vulnerable employment rate in CSEE&CIS, 2000- 2009
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
MDG Employment IndicatorsMonitoring national labour markets
• Key Indicators of the Labour Market, 6th edition, contains a broader set of employment indicators, with an analysis of recent trends for each indicator.
• Indicators on the volume of employment, including labour force participation and employment-to-population rates, hours of work, underemployment, part-time employment• Employment by status and sector• Educational attainment• Wage and earning indices• Labour productivity
• The KILM also includes a section with country examples of analysis of the MDG employment indicators, and their linkages with other indicators.
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
KILM 2009 Chapter 1c. MDG Employment Indicators – Analysis of five MDG employment indicators for Ukraine:
• Regional comparisons
• Linkages between indicators (e.g. productivity, wages and poverty)
• Many possibilities for additional disaggregations (e.g. by geographical area, age, sex, etc.)
• Scope for deeper analysis using other employment indicators (e.g. employment by sector) and other indicators (set of decent work indicators, e.g. wage developments, poverty)
MDG Employment IndicatorsMonitoring national labour markets
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Thank you!