Fixed-Income and FX Weekly
Market outlook
Local assets extend losses. Local rates sold-off 3-4bps but real-rate Udibonos
rallied 6bps, while the peso lost 1.7% to 18.18 per dollar
Fed minutes and global growth concerns in the spotlight. China data during
the weekend was lower than expected, keeping markets doubting whether
financial risks (and overleverage) can be handled appropriately by authorities
without making a big dent on growth. Downside risks in other regions are also
present, with the BoE and BoJ maintaining a dovish bias. The G7 meeting in
Japan by the end of this week should be mostly concerned over the possible tools
that could be used to address this global scenario. In contrast and in the US, early
2Q16 data signal a rebound in GDP growth. In this context, investors are
questioning themselves how much is the fragile global backdrop likely to affect
the Fed in terms of their timing for rate hikes, with markets incorporating a
relatively low probability for a June (4%) or July (17.4%) move. The main event
this week will be the FOMC minutes to gauge the possibility of a sooner-than-
expected hike, with more hawkish comments by their members after the latest
decision. Also in the US, Empire and Philly surveys, housing data, and April CPI
and industrial production. In the Eurozone, ECB minutes, trade balance, April
CPI and March construction. In the UK, retail sales, and unemployment, while
Japan will release industrial production and 1Q16 GDP. Central bank meetings
include Colombia, South Africa, and Indonesia. In Mexico, Banxico’s minutes
after a neutral decision, final 1Q16 GDP, and March IGAE will be published
Fixed-Income
Supply – On Tuesday, the MoF will auction 1-, 3-, and 6-month zero-coupon
Cetes, the 5-year Mbono (Jun’21), and the 10-year real rate Udibono (Dec’25)
Demand – Foreigners’ holdings in Mbonos totaled MXN 1.632 trillion (US$ 91.7
billion), a market share equal to 59.5%, as of May 4th. Short positions in Mbono
Dec’24 located at MXN 5.5 billion from previous MXN 9.6 billion
Technicals – Mbono Dec’24 and 10-year UST kept a rising trend as market
participants where cautious over risk positions closing at 411bps from 401bps
Foreign exchange
Market positioning and flows – Net peso shorts were increased relatively
strongly, ending at US$ 1.2 billion. Mutual fund sold US$ 381 million in EM, its
first outflow in four weeks and explained by strong pressures in Asia
Technicals –The vol curve had a modest relief after the previous week strong
increase, with an average fall of 24bps up to the one-year tenor. USD/MXN
adjusted strongly upward during the past three weeks and is trading around 18.20,
not seen since the end of February
May 16, 2016 www.banorte.com www.ixe.com.mx
Gabriel Casillas Chief Economist and Head of Research [email protected]
Alejandro Padilla Head Strategist – Fixed-Income and FX [email protected]
Juan Carlos Alderete, CFA FX Strategist [email protected]
Santiago Leal Singer Fixed-Income and FX Analyst [email protected]
Banorte-Ixe FI/FX Strategy Mexico
Fixed-Income Market dynamics.…………………….pg. 2 Supply………………………………….pg. 3 Demand………………………………..pg. 4 Technicals……………………………..pg. 6 Recommendations…………………...pg. 8
Foreign exchange Market dynamics……………………..pg. 9 Market positioning and flows……....pg. 10 Technicals…………………………...pg. 11 Recommendations………………….pg. 13
Recommendations Fixed-Income We recommend waiting for better
entry levels for long positions in the belly of the Mbonos curve, as local rates are likely to trade sidelines with relevant factors ahead that could undermine risk premium
FX Maintain a short USD/MXN trading
bias (avoiding directional positions) on some signs of overshooting, such as lagging against oil
We expect higher USD selling interest above 18.00 pesos
Weekly estimated range between 17.90 to 18.40 per dollar
Document for distribution among the general public
2
Fixed-Income dynamics In line with our expectations, the Mexican market observed a profit taking
process along last week in tandem with higher risk premium in the global
spectrum. Local bonds registered a 3-4bps sell-off in the second week of May,
mainly in Mbonos and TIIE-IRS, but gains of 6bps in mid- and long-term linkers
(Udibonos). In this regard, Mbono Dec’24 finished at 5.81% (+2bps) and Mar’26 at
5.91% (+1bps)
Mbonos performance IRS (28-day TIIE) performance
Maturity date Yield to maturity
13/May/16 Weekly change
(bps) YTD (bps)
Jun'16 3.81 1 31
Dec'16 3.94 2 30
Jun'17 4.02 0 8
Dec'17 4.00 -5 -4
Jun’18 4.54 10 6
Dec'18 4.76 8 -2
Dec'19 5.10 7 -13
Jun'20 5.20 4 -22
Jun'21 5.41 5 -30
Jun'22 5.58 4 -32
Dec'23 5.75 2 -30
Dec'24 5.81 2 -29
Mar’26 5.91 1 -34
Jun'27 6.09 4 -33
May'29 6.25 2 -30
May'31 6.41 5 -25
Nov’34 6.52 3 -30
Nov'36 6.57 3 -32
Nov'38 6.61 1 -30
Nov'42 6.63 1 -31
Source: Valmer
Maturity date Yield to maturity
13/May/16 Weekly change
(bps) YTD (bps)
3-month (3x1) 4.14 3 55
6-month (6x1) 4.24 6 52
9-month (9x1) 4.36 7 50
1-year (13x1) 4.48 9 53
2-year (26x1) 4.72 8 29
3-year (39x1) 4.95 9 15
4-year (52x1) 5.16 6 -6
5-year (65x1) 5.37 7 -17
7-year (91x1) 5.73 3 -30
10-year (130x1) 6.09 2 -31
20-year (260x1) 6.75 1 -28
Source: Bloomberg
Mbonos curve at different closing dates %
Long-term reference Mbono Dec’24 %
Source: Bloomberg Source: Valmer
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
0 2 4 6 8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
13-May-16 6-May-16 15-May-15
Years1Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y
4.3
4.8
5.3
5.8
6.3
6.8
7.3
7.8
8.3
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
3
Fixed-Income supply Banxico’s weekly auction. On Tuesday, the MoF will auction 1-, 3-, and 6-month
zero-coupon Cetes, the 5-year Mbono (Jun’21), and the 10-year real rate Udibono
(Dec’25)
Investors probably awaiting better levels for long positions; demand for
Mexican linkers has started to pick up. We expect a modest demand for the 5-year
Mbono as market participants are likely to wait for better entry levels. This security
could observe a correction towards 5.47% (Fibonacci and 100-day MA), taking
into consideration lower spread vs Treasuries and a 5y5y forward rate at 6.61%,
suggesting limited space for further appreciation. On the other hand, demand for
Mexican linkers (Udibonos) has started to pick up despite the ongoing deflationary
period but with an interesting breakeven at 2.84% for the 10-year tenor
Auction specifics (Tuesday, May 17th, 2015) Auction's Calendar for 2Q16*
Maturity Coupon rate, %
To be auctioned1
Previous yield2
Cetes
1m 16-Jun-16 - - 5,500 3.77
3m 18-Aug-16 - - 9,500 3.85
6m 10-Nov-16 - - 11,000 3.88
Mbono
5y 10-Jun-21 6.50 7,500 5.28
Udibono
10y 4-Dec-25 4.50 UDIS 650 3.07
Source: Banorte-IXE with data from Banco de México
1. Except for Udibonos, which are expressed in UDI million, everything else is expressed in MXN million. The amount of Cetes is announced a week prior to the day of the auction.
2. Yield-to-maturity reported for Cetes, Mbonos and Udibonos
Date Zero-coupon Cetes
Mbonos Udibonos Bondes D
Apr 05 1, 3 & 6-month 3-year (Dec'19) 3-year (Jun'19)
Apr 12 1, 3 & 6-month 20-year (Nov'34)
5-year
Apr 19 1, 3 & 6-month 5-year (Jun'21) 10-year (Dec'25)
Apr 26 1, 3, 6, & 12-month 30-year (Nov'42) 30-year (Nov'46)** 5-year
May 03 1, 3 & 6-month 3-year (Dec'19) 3-year (Jun'19)
May 10 1, 3 & 6-month 10-year (Mar'26)
5-year
May 17 1, 3 & 6-month 5-year (Jun'21) 10-year (Dec'25)
May 24 1, 3, 6, & 12-month 20-year (Nov'34) 30-year (Nov'46) 5-year
May 31 1, 3 & 6-month 3-year (Dec'19) 3-year (Jun'19)
Jun 07 1, 3 & 6-month 30-year (Nov'42)
5-year
Jun 14 1, 3 & 6-month 5-year (Jun'21) 10-year (Dec'25)
Jun 21 1, 3, 6, & 12-month 10-year (Mar'26) 30-year (Nov'46) 5-year
Jun 28 1, 3 & 6-month 3-year (Dec'19) 3-year (Jun'19)
Source: Ministry of Finance *In case an instrument is auctioned by the syndicated method, the current instrument will be replaced by the new issuance **The auction of stripped 30-year Udibonos will be executed the next business day after the primary auction of Udibonos
5-year Mbono latest auction results YTM and bid-to-cover ratio
10-year Mbono latest auction results YTM and bid-to-cover ratio
Source: Banxico Source: Banxico
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
4.00
4.20
4.40
4.60
4.80
5.00
5.20
5.40
5.60
5.80
6.00
Jan-13 Aug-13 Mar-14 Oct-14 May-15 Dec-15
YTM Bid/cover
5-year Mbono was auctioned
during 3Q13 only in a
syndicated fashion
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
Jan-13 Aug-13 Mar-14 Oct-14 May-15 Dec-15
YTMBid/cover
4
Fixed-Income demand Foreigners’ holdings on Cetes on a fresh multiyear low once again. Holdings in
these assets were at MXN 274 billion (39.8% of the total amount outstanding) as of
May 4th from MXN 314bn in the previous week. The figure reached MXN 272bn
(39.7%) on April 28th, a new low since Februray 2012. Its 2015-minimum was
MXN 375bn with a year-max at MXN 639bn (62.7%)
…and remain strongly exposed in Mbonos. These holdings totaled MXN 1.632
trillion (US$ 91.7 billion), a market share equal to 59.5%, from MXN 1,631 trillion
the previous week and MXN 1.571 trillion (60.5%) as 2015-high
Local institutional investors heavily invested in Udibonos. These type of
investors continue with strong holdings in inflation-linked Udibonos (around 67%
of total amount outstanding), and Bondes D (46%)
Government issuance by type of instrument Total amount of US$325 billion, % of total
Mbonos holdings by type of investor Total amount of US$154 billion, % of total
Source: Banxico Source: Banxico
Zero-coupon Cetes12%
Bondes D21%
Udibonos4%
Mbonos47%
IPAB bonds16%
Banks4%
Foreign investors59%
Institutional Investors
22%
Other locals15%
Government bond holdings by type of investor
US$ billion unless indicated, data as of 05/04/2016
Zero-coupon Cetes 39 40% 11% 16% 3% 8% 23%
Floating-rate Bondes D 68 0% 6% 38% 1% 11% 43%
Real-rate Udibonos 13 9% 46% 6% 15% 3% 21%
Fix ed-rate Mbonos 154 60% 15% 4% 2% 4% 15%
Source: Banorte-Ix e w ith data from Banx ico
% of total amount outstandingTotal
amount
outstanding
Foreign
investors
Pension
funds
Mutual
funds
Insurance
companiesBanks Other
Foreign investors holdings of government bonds
US$ billion
05/04/2016Previous
Week Difference 04/27/2016 Difference
Zero-coupon Cetes 15.4 17.6 -2.3 25.4 -10.0
Floating-rate Bondes D 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
Real-rate Udibonos 1.2 1.2 0.0 1.2 0.0
Fix ed-rate Mbonos 91.7 91.6 0.1 87.4 4.3
Source: Banorte-Ix e w ith data from Banx ico
Percentage of total amount outstanding
05/04/2016Previous
Week Difference 04/27/2016 Difference
Zero-coupon Cetes 39.8% 43.6% -3.8% 51.8% -12.0%
Floating-rate Bondes D 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Real-rate Udibonos 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 9.6% -0.6%
Fix ed-rate Mbonos 59.5% 59.7% -0.2% 59.5% 0.0%
Source: Banorte-Ix e w ith data from Banx ico
DTMTotal amount
outstanding
Local
Banks
Foreign
investors
Pension and
Mutual fundsOther
Jun'16 5.7 17% 14% 27% 42%
Dec'16 6.8 3% 74% 5% 19%
Jun'17 6.2 6% 80% 2% 11%
Dec'17 9.5 3% 65% 8% 25%
Jun'18 11.5 18% 64% 8% 10%
Dec'18 14.9 1% 65% 6% 28%
Dec'19 8.5 7% 43% 19% 31%
Jun'20 6.9 0% 51% 9% 39%
Jun'21 13.1 6% 66% 4% 23%
Jun'22 6.2 1% 78% 16% 5%
Dec'23 5.3 1% 73% 23% 4%
Dec'24 14.1 1% 70% 18% 11%
Mar'26 3.6 0% 68% 24% 8%
Jun'27 5.0 1% 61% 30% 8%
May'29 5.5 0% 62% 29% 9%
May'31 7.9 1% 42% 49% 8%
Nov'34 4.5 3% 17% 73% 7%
Nov'36 3.6 1% 34% 56% 9%
Nov'38 5.9 1% 51% 42% 6%
Nov'42 8.9 1% 63% 32% 4%
Total 153.5 4% 59% 20% 17%
Source: Banxico
US$ billion and %, data as of May /5/16
Mbonos holdings by type of investor
5
Fixed-Income demand – Primary dealers Total short positions moderating levels after witnessing high ranges following
risk aversion over local assets. Short positions in Mbonos are located at MXN
72.7 bn. (US$ 4.0bn.) from MXN 79.4 bn. (US$ 4.4 bn.) the previous week
Likewise, position over Dec’24 falls from 1-month high. Figure for the 10-year
tenor set at MXN 5.5 bn. (US$ 301 mn.) from previous MXN 9.8 bn. (US$ 538
mn.). The 2015-average finished at MXN 5.9 bn. vs. MXN 4.6 bn. averaged
through 2014; during 2016 has averaged 5.3 bn.
Market makers' short positions on Mbono Dec'24 MXN billion
Market makers' short positions on Mbono Nov’42 MXN billion
Source: Banxico Source: Banxico
Market makers' short position on Mbonos US$ million
Maturity Date Total amount
outstanding as of 13-May-16
13-May-16 12-May-16 6-May-16 15-Apr-16 6-month MAX 6-month MIN
Jun'16 5,538 97 97 0 148 459 0
Dec'16 6,155 399 399 603 585 951 386
Jun'17 5,914 89 89 123 116 212 0
Dec'17 7,506 983 1,053 840 722 1,225 207
Jun'18 11,107 2 9 33 0 319 0
Dec'18 14,684 243 229 402 0 475 0
Dec'19 8,526 300 330 175 1 337 0
Jun'20 7,021 239 194 82 193 466 4
Jun'21 12,971 187 179 67 70 783 0
Jun'22 6,119 126 109 136 142 431 49
Dec'23 5,176 5 0 13 20 177 0
Dec'24 13,892 301 304 538 374 609 61
Mar’26 3,675 246 265 517 271 532 0
Jun'27 4,889 12 11 2 52 219 0
May'29 5,471 23 22 12 14 188 0
May'31 7,700 116 121 179 150 287 0
Nov'34 4,470 1 1 1 3 93 0
Nov'36 3,521 87 121 126 124 170 0
Nov'38 5,769 14 13 21 93 217 11
Nov'42 8,777 527 498 502 182 527 55
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Apr-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16
6
Fixed-Income technicals Foreign investors continue reducing exposure in Cetes following a negative
FX-adjusted carry. Spreads between Cetes and implied forward rates: 1-month -
27bps from -45bps last week, 3-month -30bp from -39bps, 6-month at -23bps from
-19bps, and the 1-year tenor at -8bps from -3bps
Market participants will pay attention to Banxico’s minutes this week,
together with Fed and ECB information. In our view, minutes from Banxico’s
last decision are likely to confirm the possibility of hiking at the same time or even
before the Federal Reserve if necessary during this 2016. This situation explains the
52bps of implied hikes that the Mexican yield curve prices in for year-end vs 13bps
in the U.S.
Cumulative implied moves in Banxico’s repo rate Basis points, using TIIE-MexDer futures
Source: Banorte-Ixe with data from MexDer
As investors remained cautious over risk positions the 10-year Mexico-U.S.
spread carry on through a rising path. The figure scored two weeks in a steady
increase, closing at 411bps from 401bps with a 12-month average at 390bps, a
mark close to the begging of the latter pick-up
Correlation increases but lingers in low levels. The 3-month reading increased to
+39% from +22% the previous week
Mbono Dec’24 and 10-year UST spread Basis points
Mexico and US 10-year bonds correlation 3-month moving correlation
Source: Bloomberg Source: Banorte-Ixe with data from Bloomberg
Spread between Cetes and Implied Forward Rates
Basis Points
Tenor Actual Prev ious Previous 6-month 6-month 6-month
16-May-16 Week Month Avg Max Min
1-month -27 -45 -54 10 93 -96
3 months -30 -39 -22 18 87 -45
6 months -23 -19 -8 23 71 -23
12 months -8 -1 0 18 38 -8
Source: Banorte-Ixe with data from Valmer and Bloomberg3
19
52
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jan-12 Aug-12 Mar-13 Oct-13 May-14 Dec-14 Jul-15 Feb-16
-1.0
-0.8
-0.5
-0.3
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.8
1.0
Apr-10 Mar-11 Feb-12 Jan-13 Dec-13 Nov-14 Oct-15
Strong positive correlation
Strong negative correlation
Low correlation
7
Fixed-Income technicals (continued) Global growth, central banks’ future actions, and oil performance has printed
May’s mood, with a decoupled trading between local and American securities.
Mexican rates have been affected by foreign conditions and therefore extending
April’s modest sell-off, as U.S. Treasuries have benefited by their safe haven
appeal and the market expectations over the Federal Reserve
Spreads between TIIE-IRS and Mbonos held the upward trend following the
need for hedging as May could turn more complicated for emerging markets.
The 2-year spread increased to 71bps from 61bps while the 10-year tenor moved to
17bps from 16bps
Mexican and US rates performance, last 12 months Basis points
2- and 10-year TIIE-IRS and Mbono spreads Basis points
Source: Valmer and Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Short-term breakevens increased as real-rates outperformed nominal-rate
along the week despite April’s deflation print. In this sense, 3-year figures are
trading at 2.57% from 2.53%, while the 5-year stands at 2.97% from 2.78%
However, both short- and long-duration inflation expectations are still below
Banxico’s 3.00% target. The 10-year breakeven closed unchanged from last week
at 2.84% from 2.79%, whereas the 30-year at 2.94% from 2.87%
3- and 5-year breakeven inflation using Mbonos & Udibonos Implicit market inflation using Fisher Equation
10- and 30-year breakeven inflation using Mbonos & Udibonos Implicit market inflation using Fisher Equation
Source: Banorte-Ixe with data from Valmer Source: Banorte-Ixe with data from Valmer
7 7
-1
1
-1 -5
7 3
-26
11
-12 -7
59
23
-17
15
-18
116 6
-35
-19
3 6
-13
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Mbono Dec'24 10-year UST
-15
5
25
45
65
85
105
Jan-10 Jan-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Apr-16
2-year 10-year
1.9
2.4
2.9
3.4
3.9
4.4
4.9
5.4
Dec-09 Oct-10 Aug-11 Jun-12 Apr-13 Feb-14 Dec-14 Oct-15
3-year 5-year
Upper limit of Banxico's inflation target range
2.3
2.8
3.3
3.8
4.3
4.8
Dec-09 Oct-10 Aug-11 Jun-12 Apr-13 Feb-14 Dec-14 Oct-15
10-year 30-year
Upper limit of Banxico's inflation target range
8
Fixed-Income trade recommendations Mexican curve attractive within the EM spectrum but we suggest as a tactical
strategy to underweight positions and wait for better entry levels for long
directional strategies in mid- and long-term Mbonos. The local yield curve
remains one of the most attractive alternatives in emerging markets, taking into
consideration a still steep slope (2/10 at 137bps), an appealing risk premia vis-à-vis
its fundamentals (10-year spread at 411bps vs 12-month mean at 390bps), and a
monetary normalization process already priced in (5y5y forward rate at 6.61%).
However, despite our expectation for a further flattening bias in the next 2 years
(positive for carry trade), we suggest appropriate waiting for better entry levels in
the long belly of the Mbonos curve. It is our take that the short-end will remain
pressured in tandem with deteriorated dynamics in the FX market since the end of
April. In our view, the 53bps of implied hikes priced in the curve for year-end are
attainable, with low probability of decreasing going forward. On the other hand, we
acknowledge the existence of an attractive valuation in mid- and long-term
securities, albeit with limited space for further appreciation, at least in coming
weeks. In this regard, we recommend as a tactical strategy holding an underweight
stance and waiting for better entry levels for long positions in the belly of the
Mbonos curve. For further details about our views on the market and forecasts
please refer to our research note: “Fixed-Income, FX and Commodities Quarterly –
2Q16 Outlook” <pdf>, published on April 19, 2016
9
FX dynamics
Mexican peso weak despite increase in oil. The MXN was the third worst among
EM despite a pick-up in oil prices, losing 1.7% to 18.18 per dollar
Dollar extends gains. Weak data in several regions but positive surprises in the US
gave the currency a lift against G10, with all lower except NOK and led by JPY
and SEK (-1.4% each)
Foreign Exchange market levels and historical returns
FX performance Against USD
Close at 13/05/16
Daily Change
(%)1
Weekly change
(%)1
Monthly change
(%)1
YTD1
(%)
Emerging Markets Brazil USD/BRL 3.53 -1.2 -0.7 -0.8 12.3
Chile USD/CLP 690.69 -0.8 -3.8 -2.9 2.6
Colombia USD/COP 2,992.48 -1.5 -1.2 0.5 6.1
Peru USD/PEN 3.34 -0.3 -0.7 -2.0 2.3
Hungary USD/HUF 278.99 -0.7 -1.2 -1.2 4.1
Malaysia USD/MYR 4.03 -0.1 -0.7 -3.9 6.5
Mexico USD/MXN 18.18 -1.2 -1.7 -4.1 -5.4
Poland USD/PLN 3.90 -0.6 -0.4 -2.5 0.5
Russia USD/RUB 65.45 -0.8 1.1 1.3 11.9
South Africa USD/ZAR 15.39 -2.5 -3.3 -5.5 0.5
Developed Markets
Canada USD/CAD 1.29 -0.7 -0.2 -1.0 6.9
Great Britain GBP/USD 1.44 -0.6 -0.4 1.1 -2.5
Japan USD/JPY 108.67 0.3 -1.4 0.6 10.6
Eurozone EUR/USD 1.13 -0.6 -0.9 0.3 4.1
Norway USD/NOK 8.20 -0.8 0.1 0.4 7.9
Denmark USD/DKK 6.58 -0.6 -0.8 0.3 4.4
Switzerland USD/CHF 0.98 -0.5 -0.3 -0.8 2.8
New Zealand NZD/USD 0.68 -0.7 -0.9 -2.2 -0.9
Sweden USD/SEK 8.25 -0.8 -1.4 -1.4 2.3
Australia AUD/USD 0.73 -0.8 -1.4 -5.1 -0.3
1. Positive (negative) changes mean appreciation (depreciation) of the corresponding currency against the USD.
%
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
USD/MXN Last 12 months
USD/MXN – intraday Last 30 trading days
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg, Banorte-Ixe
YTDWeekly
-0.4
-0.9
-1.4
-1.4
-0.3
-0.9
-0.8
-0.2
0.1
-1.4
-2.5
-0.9
-0.3
2.3
2.8
4.1
4.4
6.9
7.9
10.6
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
GBP
NZD
AUD
SEK
CHF
EUR
DKK
CAD
NOK
JPY
-1.7
-3.3
-0.4
-0.7
-3.8
-1.2
-1.2
-0.7
1.1
-0.7
-5.4
0.5
0.5
2.3
2.6
4.1
6.1
6.5
11.9
12.3
MXN
ZAR
PLN
PEN
CLP
HUF
COP
MYR
RUB
BRL
14.2
14.7
15.2
15.7
16.2
16.7
17.2
17.7
18.2
18.7
19.2
May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-1616.9
17.1
17.3
17.5
17.7
17.9
18.1
18.3
18.5
10-Apr-2016 15-Apr-2016 21-Apr-2016 28-Apr-2016 4-May-2016 11-May-2016
30D Min / Psychological= 17.05 / 17.00
Fibonacci = 17.74
Fibonacci / Last year's close = 17.22 / 17.21
100D MA= 17.87
Fibonacci= 18.39
200D MA= 17.31
Psychological= 18.00
150D MA and Psychological= 17.50
Support= 17.62
30D Max= 18.20
Psychological= 18.50
10
FX positioning and flows MXN shorts surge higher. The net short was increased by US$ 901 million after
reaching its lowest level since October 2015 last week, the latest moment when the
position tried to flip to net long, ending at US$ 1.2 billion
First increase in USD positions in nine weeks. Global USD net shorts were
reduced by US$ 368 million to end at a still relatively high level of US$ 5.5 billion.
This was mainly explained by a hefty reduction in AUD longs of US$ 1 billion and
higher MXN shorts, as explained above. All other currencies were purchased, led
by GBP (+US$ 688 million) and CAD (+US$ 438 million)
Asian outflows impact overall EM performance. Mutual funds sold US$ 381
million in EM, the first outflow in four weeks amid an increase in market volatility.
Both fixed-income and equities were lower, with sales in the latter at US$ 248
million given a decrease of US$ 325 million in Asia. Bonds registered their first
outflow since the week ended March 2. In Mexico, fixed-income inflows were
barely positive at US$ 1.7 million, while equities picked up modestly to US$ 24
million
IMM positioning in USD/MXN futures Negative = net long in MXN
IMM positioning by currency* Billion dollars
Source: CME, Banorte-Ixe * Positive: Net long in the corresponding currency Source: CME, Banorte-Ixe
Foreign portfolio flows into Mexico Accumulated during the last 12M, million dollars
Net foreign portfolio flows by region* Weekly, million dollars
* Including only mutual funds’ investments Source: EPFR Global, Banorte-Ixe Source: EPFR Global, Banorte-Ixe
13.0
14.0
15.0
16.0
17.0
18.0
19.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16
USD/MXN
Net positions (USD bn)
-3.1 -3.0
-1.3
0.6 0.81.8
2.8
6.8
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
EUR GBP MXN NZD CHF CAD AUD JPY
3-May-16 10-May-16
-2,500
-2,100
-1,700
-1,300
-900
-500
-100
300
700
1,100
1,500
1,900
2,300
-4,500
-3,700
-2,900
-2,100
-1,300
-500
300
1,100
1,900
2,700
3,500
4,300
may-15 jul-15 sep-15 nov-15 ene-16 mar-16 may-16
Equities
Fixed Income232
297
146
48
76
-477
2
17
-600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400
Latam
EM Asia
EM Europe
ME and Africa
May-11-16 May-04-16
11
FX technicals USD/MXN testing February-end highs. The upward correction continued, with
the peso reaching up to 18.20 on an intraday basis, a level not seen since the end of
February after consolidating since then with a strong resistance at 18.00 per dollar
MXN correlation with commodities strengthens. Despite a slight reduction in
MXN correlations with other currencies, the most important move was the increase
with the GSCI and gold, with not only oil but broad metals on the spotlight and
observing significant moves. Our base-case remains that correlations should remain
broadly high. Intraday volatility has picked up in the past two weeks and although
a more stable external environment could reduce correlations somewhat, we still
see a plethora of factors of a global nature as the main drivers of market trends
Slight reversal in implied volatilities. After last week’s strong increase, the vol.
curve moderated as it decreased 24bps on average up to the one-year tenor. The 1M
measure outperformed as it fell by 43bps to 13.4%, while the two- and three-
month measures decreased around 30bps. The spread against historicals tightened,
with the former at 8bps and the latter at 14bps, with the strongest catch-up in
market measures signaling an adjustment towards fair values
USD/MXN – Moving averages Last 120 trading days
USD/MXN – Fibonacci retracement Last 12 months
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
USD/MXN – 1-month correlation with other currencies* Based on daily percentage changes
USD/MXN – 1-month correlation with other assets* Based on daily percentage changes
* Positive: appreciation of MXN and corresponding currency Source: Bloomberg, Banorte-Ixe
* Positive: appreciation of MXN and corresponding asset except VIX Source: Bloomberg, Banorte-Ixe
14.8
15.3
15.8
16.3
16.8
17.3
17.8
18.3
18.8
19.3
Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
. . . . .
USD/MXN= 18.1839 MA (50)= 17.5886 MA (100)= 17.8691 MA (150)= 17.5027 MA (200)= 17.3081
14.0
15.0
16.0
17.0
18.0
19.0
May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16
19.4448
18.3924
17.7413
17.2150
16.6888
16.0377
14.9853
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
4-Feb-16 19-Feb-16 5-Mar-16 20-Mar-16 4-Apr-16 19-Apr-16 4-May-16
EUR CAD ZAR BRL HUF RUB
-0.5
-0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
VIX SPX Gold GSCI
12
FX technicals (continued) Short-term risk reversals once again signaling risks for the peso. The skew in
favor of short-term OTM USD/MXN calls over puts plunged again after last
week’s upward adjustment, with the 1M measure ending at 0.98 (-0.67vols) and the
3-month maturity at 1.74 (-0.46vols). When adjusted for volatility, the former went
again to undervalued territory, plunging from 0.12 to 0.07, or to -2.2σ over its 1Y
average, signaling once again an elevated risk of further pressures in the currency
USD/MXN – ATM options volatility curve %
USD/MXN – 1M implied and historical volatility %
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
USD/MXN – Spread between implicit and historical volatility Bps
Emerging markets 1-month ATM options volatility Against USD, in standard deviations relative to last year’s average
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg, Banorte-Ixe
USD/MXN – 1-month and 3-month 25D risk reversals Last 24 months, difference between USD calls and puts, in vols
USD/MXN – 1-month 25D volatility-adjusted risk reversal Last 12 months, ratio adjusted against one month implied volatility
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg, Banorte-Ixe
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
1M 2M 3M 6M 9M 1Y
Today 2 weeks1 week 3 weeks
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16
Historical
Implied
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16
1M
3M
-1.54
-1.11
-1.04
-1.03
-0.93
-0.42
-0.11
-0.10
-0.03
0.74
1.06
-6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
HUF
RUB
BRL
PLN
TRY
COP
KRW
CLP
MYR
MXN
ZAR
CaroBarato
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16
1M
3M
0.05
0.07
0.09
0.11
0.13
0.15
0.17
0.19
May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16
Risk Reversal 1Y average +1 st. dev. -1 st. dev.
USDMXN call > USDMXN put
13
FX trade recommendations We reiterate our short USD/MXN bias for trading purposes. We forecast a
weekly range between 17.90-18.40 pesos per USD. The MXN remained weak
throughout the week despite moderating the strength of the moves above 18.00 per
dollar. In our view, the cross has overshot somewhat. Therefore, we reiterate our
recommendation of maintaining a short USD/MXN bias for trading purposes, but
avoiding directional positions. Among the reasons, we highlight: (1) The peso
depreciated despite its high correlation with oil prices, and WTI gaining 3.7%; (2)
central banks such as the BoE and BoJ showed a more dovish tilt, which could
support risky assets, although the same bias has not been present in recent
commentary by FOMC members; (3) if the peso maintains a relatively weak
behavior when compared to other EM, we do not discard the possibility of
discretionary USD sales by the Foreign Exchange Commission, which could
provide some relief to the currency; and (4) local economic data has been stronger,
but the peso has not reacted meaningfully. Even after accounting for these factors,
we warn that it is likely that the peso’s appreciation potential will remain limited.
As a result, we suggest to keep avoiding strong directional positions, more so
considering the increase in intraday volatility during the past two weeks
USD/MXN - Forecasts Pesos per dollar
USD/MXN 30-day correlation with oil and 10Y UST Based on daily changes
Source: Banorte-Ixe Source: Banorte-Ixe with data from Bloomberg 3M Carry/Vol* and USD/MXN
Economic surprise indexes by region
% and pesos per dollar, respectively Pts
* 3M Mexico – US interest rate (in local currency) divided by 3M implied volatility Source: Bloomberg, Banorte-Ixe
Source: Citi, Bloomberg, Banorte-Ixe
16.3
16.5
16.7
16.9
17.1
17.3
17.5
17.7
17.9
18.1
18.3
18.5
18.7
Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16
Forecast
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16
10Y UST WTI
13.5
14.5
15.5
16.5
17.5
18.5
19.50.17
0.19
0.21
0.23
0.25
0.27
0.29
0.31
0.33
0.35
Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16
Carry/Vol (LHS) USD/MXN (RHS, inverted)
-120
-70
-20
30
80
May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16
US
Eurozone
Asia Pacific
14
Weekly economic calendar For the week ending May 20, 2016
Time (EDT)
Event Period Unit Banorte-Ixe Survey Previous
Sat
14
01:30 CH Industrial production Apr % y/y -- 6.5 6.8
01:30 CH Gross fixed investment (YTD) Apr % y/y -- 11.0 10.7
01:30 CH Retail sales Apr % y/y -- 10.6 10.5
Mon
16 08:30 US Empire manufacturing May index 5.0 6.5 9.6
19:00 US Fed's Kashkari Holds Town Hall on TBTF in Minneapolis
Tue
17
04:30 UK Consumer prices Apr % y/y 0.5 0.5 0.5
07:30 EZ Trade Balance* Mar billions -- 22.0 20.2
08:30 US Housing starts Apr thousands -- 1,125 1,089
08:30 US Building permits Apr thousands -- 1,134 1,076
08:30 US Consumer prices Apr % m/m 0.3 0.4 0.1
08:30 US Ex. food & enery Apr % m/m 0.2 0.2 0.1
08:30 US Consumer prices Apr %y/y 1.0 1.1 0.9
08:30 US Ex. food & energy Apr % y/y 2.1 2.1 2.2
09:15 US Industrial production Apr % m/m 0.2 0.3 -0.6
09:15 US Manufacturing Apr % m/m 0.3 0.3 -0.3
10:00 MX International reserves May 13 US$bn -- -- 177.7
12:00 US Fed's Williams and Lockhart Discuss Economy at Politico Event
12:30 MX Government bond auction -1M, 3M and 6M Cetes, 5-year Mbono and 10-year Udibono
13:15 US Fed's Kaplan in Moderated Q&A at Petroleum Club of Midland
17:00 CL Monetary policy decision (BCCh) May 17 % 3.50 3.50 3.50
Wed
18
03:30 EZ Consumer prices Apr (F) % y/y -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
03:30 EZ Core Apr (F) % y/y 0.7 0.7 0.7
10:00 UK Unemployment rate Mar % 5.1 5.1 5.1
14:00 US FOMC minutes
Thu
19
07:30 EZ ECB minutes
08:30 US Philadelphia Fed May index 2.0 3.0 -1.6
08:30 US Initial jobless claims May 14 thousands 275 275 294
10:00 MX Banxico's minutes
10:30 US Fed's Dudley speaks on Macroeconomic Trends in New York
SA Monetary policy decision (South African Reserve Bank) May 19 % 7.00 7.00 7.00
Fri
20
08:00 BZ Consumer prices May % m/m -- 0.74 0.51
08:00 BZ Consumer prices May % y/y -- 9.50 9.34
09:00 MX Gross domestic product 1Q16 % y/y 2.6 2.6 2.7
09:00 MX Gross domestic product* 1Q16 % q/q 0.7 0.7 0.8
09:00 MX Nominal gross domestic product 1Q16 % y/y 5.3 5.0 4.9
09:00 MX Global economic activity indicator (IGAE) Mar % y/y 1.5 1.4 4.1
10:00 US Existing home sales Apr millions -- 5.4 5.3
16:30 MX Survey of expectations (Banamex)
Source: Bloomberg and Banorte-Ixe. (P) preliminary data; (R) revised data; (F) final data; * Seasonally adjusted.
15
For the week ending May 13, 2016
Time (EDT)
Event Period Unit Actual Survey Previous
Sat
7 21:00 CH Trade balance Apr USDbn 45.6 40.0 29.9
21:00 CH Exports Apr % y/y -1.8 0.0 11.5
21:00 CH Imports Apr % y/y -10.9 -4.0 -7.6
Mon
9
05:10 US Chicago Fed's Evans Speaks on Economy and Policy on Panel in London
09:00 MX Consumer prices Apr % m/m -0.32 -0.26 0.15
09:00 MX Core Apr % m/m 0.22 0.19 0.36
09:00 MX Consumer prices Apr % y/y 2.48 2.60 2.60
13:00 US Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari Speaks in Minneapolis
21:30 CH Consumer prices Apr % y/y 2.3 2.3 2.3
Tue
10
MX Wage negotiations Apr % y/y 4.9 -- 4.5
02:00 GER Industrial production Mar % m/m -1.3 -0.2 -0.5
10:00 MX International reserves May 6 US$bn 177.7 -- 178.0
12:30 MX Government bond auction -1M, 3M and 6M Cetes, 10-year Mbono and Bondes D
13:00 US 3-year Treasury Bond auction
Wed
11 05:30 UK Industrial production* Mar % m/m 0.3 0.5 -0.3
07:00 BZ Retail sales Mar % y/y -5.7 -5.7 -4.2
13:00 US 10-year Treasury Bond auction
Thu
12
05:00 EZ Industrial production Mar % m/m -0.8 0.0 -0.8
07:00 UK Monetary policy decision (BoE) May 12 % 0.50 0.50 0.50
07:00 UK Quarterly inflation report
08:30 US Initial jobless claims May 7 thousands 294 270 274
09:00 MX Industrial production Mar % y/y -2.0 -0.9 2.6
09:00 MX Industrial production* Mar % m/m -0.2 0.1 -0.1
09:00 MX Manufacturing output Mar % y/y -1.5 0.1 3.9
11:00 US Cleveland Fed's Mester Speaks About Inflation Dynamics
13:00 US 30-year Treasury Bond auction
13:30 US Kansas City Fed's George Speaks on Economy in Albuquerque
17:00 PE Monetary policy decision (BCRP) May 12 % 4.25 4.25 4.25
20:00 SK Monetary policy decision (Central bank of South Korea)
May 13 % 1.50 1.50 1.50
BZ Economic activity* Mar % y/y -6.3 -6.0 -4.5
Fri1
3
02:00 GER Gross domestic product* 1Q16 (P) % q/q 0.7 0.6 0.3
05:00 EZ Gross domestic product* 1Q16 (F) % q/q 0.6 0.5 0.6
08:30 US Advance retail sales Apr % m/m 1.3 0.8 -0.4
08:30 US Retail sales ex autos Apr % m/m 0.8 0.3 0.1
08:30 US Producer prices Apr % m/m 0.2 0.3 -0.1
08:30 US Ex. food & energy prod Apr % m/m 0.1 0.1 0.0
10:00 US Business inventories Mar % m/m 0.4 0.2 -0.1
10:00 US U. of Michigan Confidence May (P) index 95.8 89.9 89.0
18:25 US San Francisco Fed's Williams Speaks in Sacramento
16
Disclaimer
The information contained in this document is illustrative and informative so it should not be considered as an
advice and/or recommendation of any kind. BANORTE is not part of any party or political trend.
Track of the latest fixed-income trade recommendations
Trade idea Entry Target Stop-loss Closed Status P/L Initial date End date
Receive 1-year TIIE-IRS (13x1) 3.92% 3.67% 4.10% 3.87%1
Closed Profit 12-Nov-15 8-Feb-16
Long spread 10-year TIIE-IRS vs US Libor 436bps 410bps 456bps 410bps Closed Profit 30-Sep-15 23-Oct-15
Receive 9-month TIIE-IRS (9x1) 3.85% 3.65% 4.00% 3.65% Closed Profit 3-Sep-15 18-Sep-15
Spread TIIE 2/ 10 yrs (flattening) 230pb 200pb 250pb 200pb Closed Profit 26-Jun-15 29-Jul-15
Long Mbono Dec'24 6.12% 5.89% 6.27% 5.83% Closed Profit 13-mar-15 19-mar-15
Relative-value trade, long 10-year Mbono (Dec'24) / flattening of the curve Closed Profit 22-Dec-14 6-Feb-15
Pay 3-month TIIE-IRS (3x1) 3.24% 3.32% 3.20% 3.30% Closed Profit 29-Jan-15 29-Jan-15
Pay 9-month TIIE-IRS (9x1) 3.28% 3.38% 3.20% 3.38% Closed Profit 29-Jan-15 29-Jan-15
Pay 5-year TIIE-IRS (65x1) 5.25% 5.39% 5.14% 5.14% Closed Loss 4-Nov-14 14-Nov-14
Long Udibono Dec'17 0.66% 0.45% 0.82% 0.82% Closed Loss 4-Jul-14 26-Sep-14
Relative-value trade, long Mbonos 5-to-10-year Closed Profit 5-May-14 26-Sep-14
Receive 2-year TIIE-IRS (26x1) 3.75% 3.55% 3.90% 3.90% Closed Loss 11-Jul-14 10-Sep-14
Receive 1-year TIIE-IRS (13x1) 4.04% 3.85% 4.20% 3.85% Closed Profit 6-Feb-14 10-Apr-14
Long Udibono Jun'16 0.70% 0.45% 0.90% 0.90% Closed Loss 6-Jan-14 4-Feb-14
Long Mbono Jun'16 4.47% 3.90% 4.67% 4.06% Closed Profit 7-Jun-13 21-Nov-13
Receive 6-month TIIE-IRS (6x1) 3.83% 3.65% 4.00% 3.81% Closed Profit 10-Oct-13 25-Oct-13
Receive 1-year TIIE-IRS (13x1) 3.85% 3.55% 4.00% 3.85% Closed Flat 10-Oct-13 25-Oct-13
Long Udibono Dec'17 1.13% 0.95% 1.28% 1.35% Closed Loss 9-Aug-13 10-Sep-13
Receive 9-month TIIE-IRS (9x1) 4.50% 4.32% 4.65% 4.31% Closed Profit 21-Jun-13 12-Jul-13
Spread TIIE-Libor (10-year) 390bps 365bps 410bps 412bps Closed Loss 7-Jun-13 11-Jun-13
Receive 1-year TIIE-IRS (13x1) 4.22% 4.00% 4.30% 4.30% Closed Loss 19-Apr-13 31-May-13
Long Udibono Jun'22 1.40% 1.20% 1.55% 0.97% Closed Profit 15-Mar-13 3-May-13
Receive 1-year TIIE-IRS (13x1) 4.60% 4.45% 4.70% 4.45% Closed Profit 1-Feb-13 7-Mar-13
Long Mbono Nov'42 6.22% 5.97% 6.40% 5.89% Closed Profit 1-Feb-13 7-Mar-13
Long Udibono Dec'13 1.21% 0.80% 1.40% 1.40% Closed Loss 1-Feb-13 15-Apr-13
Receive 1-year TIIE-IRS (13x1) 4.87% 4.70% 5.00% 4.69% Closed Profit 11-Jan-13 24-Jan-13
Receive TIIE Pay Mbono (10-year) 46bps 35bps 54bps 54bps Closed Loss 19-Oct-12 8-Mar-13
Spread TIIE-Libor (10-year) 410bps 385bps 430bps 342bps Closed Profit 21-Sep-13 8-Mar-13
Long Udibono Dec'12 +0.97% -1.50% +1.20% -6.50% Closed Profit 1-May-12 27-Nov-12
Long Udibono Dec'13 +1.06% 0.90% +1.35% 0.90% Closed Profit 1-May-12 14-Dec-12
1. Carry + ro ll-down gains of 17bps
Track of the latest FX trade recommendations*
Trade Idea Entry Target Stop-loss Closed Status P/L* Initial Date End date
Long USD/MXN 14.98 15.50 14.60 15.43 Closed Profit 20-Mar-15 20-Apr-15
Short EUR/MXN 17.70 n.a. n.a. 16.90 Closed Profit 5-Jan-15 15-Jan-15
Tactical trade: Long USD/MXN 14.40 n.a. n.a. 14.85 Closed Profit 15-Dec-14 5-Jan-15
Tactical trade: Long USD/MXN 13.62 n.a. n.a. 14.11 Closed Profit 21-Nov-14 3-Dec-14
Short USD/MXN 13.21 n.a. n.a. 13.64 Closed Loss 10-Sep-14 26-Sep-14
Tactical trade: Short EUR/MXN 17.20 n.a. n.a. 17.03 Closed Profit 27-Aug-14 4-Sep-14
USD/MXN call spread** 12.99 13.30 n.a. 13.02 Closed Loss 6-May-14 13-Jun-14
Directional short USD/MXN 13.00 12.70 13.25 13.28 Closed Loss 31-Oct-13 8-Nov-13
Limit short USD/MXN 13.25 12.90 13.46 -- Cancelled -- 11-Oct-13 17-Oct-13
Speculative short USD/MXN 12.70 12.50 13.00 13.00 Closed Loss 26-Jul-13 21-Aug-13
Short EUR/MXN 16.05 15.70 16.40 15.69 Closed Profit 29-Apr-13 9-May-13
Long USD/MXN 12.60 12.90 12.40 12.40 Closed Loss 11-Mar-13 13-Mar-13
Long USD/MXN 12.60 12.90 12.40 12.85 Closed Profit 11-Jan-13 27-Feb-13
Tactical limit short USD/MXN 12.90 12.75 13.05 -- Cancelled -- 10-Dec-12 17-Dec-12
* Total return does not consider carry gain/losses
** Low strike (long call) at 13.00, high strike (short call) at 13.30 for a premium of 0.718% of notional amount
Source: Banorte-Ixe
17
GRUPO FINANCIERO BANORTE S.A.B. de C.V.
Gabriel Casillas Olvera Chief Economist and Head of Research [email protected] (55) 4433 - 4695
Raquel Vázquez Godinez Assistant [email protected] (55) 1670 - 2967
Delia María Paredes Mier Executive Director of Economic Analysis [email protected] (55) 5268 - 1694
Alejandro Cervantes Llamas Senior Economist, Mexico [email protected] (55) 1670 - 2972
Katia Celina Goya Ostos Senior Global Economist [email protected] (55) 1670 - 1821
Miguel Alejandro Calvo Domínguez
Economist, Regional & Sectorial [email protected] (55) 1670 - 2220
Juan Carlos García Viejo Economist, International [email protected] (55) 1670 - 2252
Rey Saúl Torres Olivares Analyst [email protected] (55) 1670 - 2957
Lourdes Calvo Fernández Analyst (Edition) [email protected] (55) 1103 - 4000 x 2611
Alejandro Padilla Santana Head Strategist – Fixed income and FX [email protected] (55) 1103 - 4043
Juan Carlos Alderete Macal, CFA FX Strategist [email protected] (55) 1103 - 4046
Santiago Leal Singer Analyst Fixed income and FX [email protected] (55) 1670 - 2144
Manuel Jiménez Zaldivar Director Equity Research —Telecommunications / Media
[email protected] (55) 5268 - 1671
Victor Hugo Cortes Castro Equity Research Analyst [email protected] (55) 1670 - 1800
Marissa Garza Ostos Senior Equity Research Analyst – Conglomerates/Financials/ Mining/ Chemistry
[email protected] (55) 1670 - 1719
Marisol Huerta Mondragón Equity Research Analyst – Food/Beverages [email protected] (55) 1670 - 1746
José Itzamna Espitia Hernández Equity Research Analyst – Airports / Cement / Infrastructure / Fibras
[email protected] (55) 1670 - 2249
Valentín III Mendoza Balderas Equity Research Analyst – Auto parts [email protected] (55) 1670 - 2250
Corporate Debt
Tania Abdul Massih Jacobo Director Corporate Debt [email protected] (55) 5268 - 1672
Hugo Armando Gómez Solís Analyst, Corporate Debt [email protected] (55) 1670 - 2247
Idalia Yanira Céspedes Jaén Analyst, Corporate Debt [email protected] (55) 1670 - 2248
Armando Rodal Espinosa Head of Wholesale Banking [email protected] (55) 1670 - 1889
Alejandro Eric Faesi Puente Head of Global Markets and Institutional Sales [email protected] (55) 5268 - 1640
Alejandro Aguilar Ceballos Head of Asset Management [email protected] (55) 5268 - 9996
Arturo Monroy Ballesteros Head of Investment Banking and Structured Finance
[email protected] (55) 5004 - 1002
Gerardo Zamora Nanez Head of Transactional Banking, Leasing and Factoring
[email protected] (81) 8318 - 5071
Jorge de la Vega Grajales Head of Government Banking [email protected] (55) 5004 - 5121
Luis Pietrini Sheridan Head of Private Banking [email protected] (55) 5004 - 1453
René Gerardo Pimentel Ibarrola Head of Asset Management [email protected] (55) 5268 - 9004
Ricardo Velázquez Rodríguez Head of International Banking [email protected] (55) 5004 - 5279
Víctor Antonio Roldan Ferrer Head of Corporate Banking [email protected] (55) 5004 - 1454
Research and Strategy
Economic Analysis
Fixed income and FX Strategy
Equity Strategy
Wholesale Banking