locusts & systems
meteorological data
solutions & challenges
locusts & systems
meteorological data
solutions & challenges
Meteorological information forlocust monitoring & control
Meteorological information forlocust monitoring & control
Keith CressmanLocust Forecasting Officer 9 April 2006
Keith CressmanLocust Forecasting Officer 9 April 2006
Desert Locust countriesDesert Locust countries
Invasion area = 32 million km2 (20% of world land mass)
25 key (front-line) countries
Invasion area = 32 million km2 (20% of world land mass)
25 key (front-line) countries
summerwinter
springRecession area = 16 million km2Recession area = 16 million km2
Desert Locust biologyDesert Locust biology
25d 14d 30 days
summer (Sudan interior + IND/PAK)
winter (Red Sea coasts)
spring (PAK/IRN)
25d 14d 30 days
summer (Sudan interior + IND/PAK)
winter (Red Sea coasts)
spring (PAK/IRN)
a e h
Desert Locust phase changeDesert Locust phase change
Individual locusts= no threatIndividual locusts= no threat
solitarioussolitarious
Desert Locust phase changeDesert Locust phase change
Individual locusts= no threatIndividual locusts= no threat
solitarioussolitarious
Grouping & concentration= increasing threatGrouping & concentration= increasing threat
transienstransiens
Desert Locust phase changeDesert Locust phase change
Individual locusts= no threatIndividual locusts= no threat
solitarioussolitarious
Grouping & concentration= increasing threatGrouping & concentration= increasing threat
transienstransiens
hopper bands & swarms (gregarious) = THREAT!
gregariousgregarious
Desert Locust migrationDesert Locust migration
recessions: move within regionsoutbreaks/upsurges/plagues: move across continentsrecessions: move within regionsoutbreaks/upsurges/plagues: move across continents
summerwinter
spring
Desert Locust programmesDesert Locust programmes
OutputsNational (Locust Control Centres)
Regional (FAO Commissions)
International (FAO HQ)monthly bulletins
interim updates
warnings
• assess situation
• forecast (6 weeks – 6 months)
• advise NLCCs / donors
• national strengthening
field data
10-day sit reps
monthly bulletins
• assess situation
• forecasts (short)
• plan surveys and control ops
Desert Locust information flowDesert Locust information flow
International -
National -
Field -
International -
National -
Field -
FAO Desert LocustInformation Service (DLIS)
Locust Control Centre
survey and control teams
FAO Desert LocustInformation Service (DLIS)
Locust Control Centre
survey and control teams
( RAMSES data files, reports )
( forms, eLocust2 data files )
Direct two-way communication
National Locust Control Centres FAO DLIS
Direct two-way communication
National Locust Control Centres FAO DLIS
Desert Locust networkDesert Locust network
FAO DLISFAO DLIS
Weather data and Desert LocustsWeather data and Desert Locusts
12 h
dailydecadalmonthly
dailydecadalmonthly
Actual UseForecastData
migrationdirectionspeedheight
Wind
maturationmigrationplanning
+1 day+10 day+30 dayseasonal
min/maxTemperature
breedingmigrationplanning
+1 day+10 day+30 dayseasonal
totalRainfall
Weather thresholdsWeather thresholds
> 25 mm in two consecutive monthsunusual events
> 20°C (egg & hopper development)> 20°C (take-off)> 18°C (sustained flight)0 - 50°C (survival range)13 - 45°C (active range)
< 10 m/s (take-off; control limits)10 - 2000 m (migration heights)
> 25 mm in two consecutive monthsunusual events
> 20°C (egg & hopper development)> 20°C (take-off)> 18°C (sustained flight)0 - 50°C (survival range)13 - 45°C (active range)
< 10 m/s (take-off; control limits)10 - 2000 m (migration heights)
RainRain
TempTemp
WindWind
Who collects & needs weather data?Who collects & needs weather data?
Survey teams (on site) collect rain dataSurvey teams (on site) collect rain data
Control teams (on site)wind direction & speedControl teams (on site)wind direction & speed
FAO DLISanalysis & forecastingFAO DLISanalysis & forecasting
NLCCsanalysis & planning field opsNLCCsanalysis & planning field ops
ID Day/Mo Hr Period .mm Station
61627 7 10 12 6 60 Linguere SEN
61627 7 10 18 12 60 Linguere SEN
61627 8 10 6 24 20 Linguere SEN
62640 7 10 12 24 722 Abu Hamed SUD
62640 8 10 0 24 700 Abu Hamed SUD
62650 7 10 12 24 722 Dongola SUD
62660 7 10 12 24 622 Karima SUD
62660 7 10 21 24 700 Karima SUD
62660 8 10 0 24 600 Karima SUD
62680 7 10 21 24 622 Atbara SUD
62721 7 10 12 24 722 Khartoum SUD
62721 7 10 21 24 622 Khartoum SUD
Tools available to NLCCsTools available to NLCCs
rainfall station reports
estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites
vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)
RAMSES GIS
rainfall station reports
estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites
vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)
RAMSES GIS
Tools available to NLCCsTools available to NLCCs
rainfall station reports
estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites
vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)
RAMSES GIS
rainfall station reports
estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites
vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)
RAMSES GIS
Tools available to NLCCsTools available to NLCCs
rainfall station reports
estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites
vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)
RAMSES GIS
rainfall station reports
estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites
vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)
RAMSES GIS
Tools available to NLCCsTools available to NLCCs
rainfall station reports
estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites
vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)
RAMSES GIS
rainfall station reports
estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites
vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)
RAMSES GIS
Tools available to NLCCsTools available to NLCCs
rainfall station reports
estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites
vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)
RAMSES GIS
rainfall station reports
estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites
vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)
RAMSES GIS
Tools available to NLCCsTools available to NLCCs
rainfall station reports
estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites
vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)
RAMSES GIS
rainfall station reports
estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites
vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)
RAMSES GIS
Tools available to NLCCsTools available to NLCCs
rainfall station reports
estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites
vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)
RAMSES GIS
rainfall station reports
estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites
vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)
RAMSES GIS
Tools available to NLCCsTools available to NLCCs
rainfall station reports
estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites
vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)
RAMSES GIS
rainfall station reports
estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites
vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)
RAMSES GIS
Primary rainfall stations (GTS)Primary rainfall stations (GTS)
very few stations in the desert where locusts breed
Libya
Primary rainfall stations (GTS)Primary rainfall stations (GTS)
Insufficient number of rainfall stationsInsufficient number of rainfall stations
very few stations in the desert where locusts breed
Libya spring summer1500 km
20 stations / 2.3 million km2
Primary rainfall stations (GTS)Primary rainfall stations (GTS)
Insufficient number of rainfall stationsInsufficient number of rainfall stations
very few stations in the desert where locusts breed
Libya spring summer1500 km
20 stations / 2.3 million km2
13 stations
3
1000 km
Primary rainfall stations (GTS)Primary rainfall stations (GTS)
Insufficient number of rainfall stationsInsufficient number of rainfall stations
very few stations in the desert where locusts breed
Libya spring summer1500 km
20 stations / 2.3 million km2
13 stations
3
1000 km
7 stations
Current weaknessesCurrent weaknesses
• poor rain station coverage
• national station data incomplete / errors
• NLCC does not use data
• weak NLCC / NMHS link
• poor rain station coverage
• national station data incomplete / errors
• NLCC does not use data
• weak NLCC / NMHS link
• poor rain station coverage
• national station data incomplete / errors
• NLCC does not use data
• weak NLCC / NMHS link
• poor rain station coverage
• national station data incomplete / errors
• NLCC does not use data
• weak NLCC / NMHS link
Current weaknessesCurrent weaknesses
• poor rain station coverage
• national station data incomplete / errors
• NLCC does not use data
• weak NLCC / NMHS link
• poor rain station coverage
• national station data incomplete / errors
• NLCC does not use data
• weak NLCC / NMHS link
• poor rain station coverage
• national station data incomplete / errors
• NLCC does not use data
• weak NLCC / NMHS link
• poor rain station coverage
• national station data incomplete / errors
• NLCC does not use data
• weak NLCC / NMHS link
ID Day/Mo Hr Period .mm Station
61627 7 10 12 6 60 Linguere SEN
61627 7 10 18 12 60 Linguere SEN
61627 8 10 6 24 20 Linguere SEN
62640 7 10 12 24 722 Abu Hamed SUD
62640 8 10 0 24 700 Abu Hamed SUD
62650 7 10 12 24 722 Dongola SUD
62660 7 10 12 24 622 Karima SUD
62660 7 10 21 24 700 Karima SUD
62660 8 10 0 24 600 Karima SUD
62680 7 10 21 24 622 Atbara SUD
62721 7 10 12 24 722 Khartoum SUD
62721 7 10 21 24 622 Khartoum SUD
Current weaknessesCurrent weaknesses
• poor rain station coverage
• national station data incomplete / errors
• NLCC does not use data
• weak NLCC / NMHS link
• poor rain station coverage
• national station data incomplete / errors
• NLCC does not use data
• weak NLCC / NMHS link
• poor rain station coverage
• national station data incomplete / errors
• NLCC does not use data
• weak NLCC / NMHS link
• poor rain station coverage
• national station data incomplete / errors
• NLCC does not use data
• weak NLCC / NMHS link
ID Day/Mo Hr Period .mm Station
61627 7 10 12 6 60 Linguere SEN
61627 7 10 18 12 60 Linguere SEN
61627 8 10 6 24 20 Linguere SEN
62640 7 10 12 24 722 Abu Hamed SUD
62640 8 10 0 24 700 Abu Hamed SUD
62650 7 10 12 24 722 Dongola SUD
62660 7 10 12 24 622 Karima SUD
62660 7 10 21 24 700 Karima SUD
62660 8 10 0 24 600 Karima SUD
62680 7 10 21 24 622 Atbara SUD
62721 7 10 12 24 722 Khartoum SUD
62721 7 10 21 24 622 Khartoum SUD
Current weaknessesCurrent weaknesses
• poor rain station coverage
• national station data incomplete / errors
• NLCC does not use data
• weak NLCC / NMHS link
• poor rain station coverage
• national station data incomplete / errors
• NLCC does not use data
• weak NLCC / NMHS link
increase rain data?
reduce transmission errors?
indicate data requirements?
regional workshop
increase rain data?
reduce transmission errors?
indicate data requirements?
regional workshop
Potential solutionsPotential solutions
• poor rain station coverage
• national station data incomplete / errors
• NLCC does not use data
• weak NLCC / NMHS link
• poor rain station coverage
• national station data incomplete / errors
• NLCC does not use data
• weak NLCC / NMHS link
ID Day/Mo Hr Period .mm Station
61627 7 10 12 6 60 Linguere SEN
61627 7 10 18 12 60 Linguere SEN
61627 8 10 6 24 20 Linguere SEN
62640 7 10 12 24 722 Abu Hamed SUD
62640 8 10 0 24 700 Abu Hamed SUD
62650 7 10 12 24 722 Dongola SUD
62660 7 10 12 24 622 Karima SUD
62660 7 10 21 24 700 Karima SUD
62660 8 10 0 24 600 Karima SUD
62680 7 10 21 24 622 Atbara SUD
62721 7 10 12 24 722 Khartoum SUD
62721 7 10 21 24 622 Khartoum SUD
This workshop’s challenges …This workshop’s challenges …
what decisions do NLCCs make that require meteo data ?
what data is needed (frequency, type, format) ?
what can NMHSs provide ?
how can any gaps be filled ?
what decisions do NLCCs make that require meteo data ?
what data is needed (frequency, type, format) ?
what can NMHSs provide ?
how can any gaps be filled ?
Keith Cressman FAO Locust Forecasting OfficerKeith Cressman FAO Locust Forecasting Officer