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locusts & systems
rain, temperature, wind
solutions & challenges
locusts & systems
rain, temperature, wind
solutions & challenges
Meteorological information forlocust control operations
Meteorological information forlocust control operations
Keith CressmanLocust Forecasting Officer
19 April 2005
Keith CressmanLocust Forecasting Officer
19 April 2005
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Desert Locust countriesDesert Locust countries
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Invasion area = 32 million km2 (20% of world land mass)
25 key (front-line) countries
Invasion area = 32 million km2 (20% of world land mass)
25 key (front-line) countries
summer
winter
springRecession area = 16 million km2Recession area = 16 million km2
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Desert Locust biologyDesert Locust biology
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summer (W Africa)
25d 14d 30 days (2-3 months: July-Nov)
spring (NW Africa)
150 days 35 days 35 days (2.5-7 months: Oct-Mar / Apr-Jun)
summer (W Africa)
25d 14d 30 days (2-3 months: July-Nov)
spring (NW Africa)
150 days 35 days 35 days (2.5-7 months: Oct-Mar / Apr-Jun)
adults invade egg hopper
a e h
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Grouping & concentration= increasing threatGrouping & concentration= increasing threat
transienstransiens
Individual locusts= no threatIndividual locusts= no threat
solitarioussolitarious
Desert Locust phase changeDesert Locust phase change
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gregariousgregarious
hopper bands & swarms (gregarious) = THREAT!
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Desert Locust migrationDesert Locust migration
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recessions: Sahel (summer)
Outbreaks/upsurges/plagues: Sahel (summer) + NWA (spring)
recessions: Sahel (summer)
Outbreaks/upsurges/plagues: Sahel (summer) + NWA (spring)
summer
winter
spring
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Desert Locust programmesDesert Locust programmes
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National (Locust Control Centres)
Outputs
• assess situation• forecasts (short)• plan surveys and control ops
field data
10-day sit reps
monthly bulletins
Regional (FAO Commissions)• national strengthening
International (FAO HQ)• assess situation• forecast (6 weeks – 6 months)• advise NLCCs / donors
monthly bulletins
interim updates
warnings
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Desert Locust information flowDesert Locust information flow
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International -
National -
Field -
International -
National -
Field -
FAO Desert LocustInformation Service (DLIS)
Locust Control Centre
survey and control teams
FAO Desert LocustInformation Service (DLIS)
Locust Control Centre
survey and control teams
( RAMSES data files, reports )
( forms, eLocust data files )
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Direct two-way communication
National Locust Control Centres FAO DLIS
Direct two-way communication
National Locust Control Centres FAO DLIS
Desert Locust networkDesert Locust network
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FAO DLISFAO DLIS
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Weather data and Desert LocustsWeather data and Desert Locusts
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Data Actual Forecast Use
Rainfall total daily
decadal
monthly
+1 day
+10 day
+30 day
seasonal
breeding
migration
planning
Temperatur
e
min/max daily
decadal
monthly
+1 day
+10 day
+30 day
seasonal
maturation
migration
planning
Wind direction
speed
height
12 h migration
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Weather thresholdsWeather thresholds
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> 25 mm in two consecutive monthsunusual events
> 20°C (egg & hopper development)> 20°C (take-off)> 18°C (sustained flight)
< 10 m/s (take-off)10 - 2000 m (migration heights)
> 25 mm in two consecutive monthsunusual events
> 20°C (egg & hopper development)> 20°C (take-off)> 18°C (sustained flight)
< 10 m/s (take-off)10 - 2000 m (migration heights)
RainRain
TempTemp
WindWind
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ID Day/Mo Hr Period .mm Station
61627 7 10 12 6 60 Linguere SEN
61627 7 10 18 12 60 Linguere SEN
61627 8 10 6 24 20 Linguere SEN
62640 7 10 12 24 722 Abu Hamed SUD
62640 8 10 0 24 700 Abu Hamed SUD
62650 7 10 12 24 722 Dongola SUD
62660 7 10 12 24 622 Karima SUD
62660 7 10 21 24 700 Karima SUD
62660 8 10 0 24 600 Karima SUD
62680 7 10 21 24 622 Atbara SUD
62721 7 10 12 24 722 Khartoum SUD
62721 7 10 21 24 622 Khartoum SUD
Tools available to NLCCsTools available to NLCCs
11 / 14
rainfall station reports
estimate / forecast rains
• US Navy
• NOAA Africa data
• IBIMET
• other web sites
SPOT vegetation imagery
RAMSES GIS
rainfall station reports
estimate / forecast rains
• US Navy
• NOAA Africa data
• IBIMET
• other web sites
SPOT vegetation imagery
RAMSES GIS
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Primary rainfall stations (GTS)Primary rainfall stations (GTS)
Senegal
Mauritania
Mali
Niger Chad
BurkinaFaso
Algeria
Tunisia
Morocco
7 rainfall stations in 1.1 million km27 rainfall stations in 1.1 million km2 12 / 14
summer breeding area
Tamanrassett
Agadez
B.B. Mokhtar
Menaka
Gao
Tessalit
Kidal
1300 km
900 km
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Current weaknessesCurrent weaknesses
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• poor rain station coverage
• national station data incomplete / errors
• NLCC does not make use of data
• FAO/DLIS does not use forecast products
• weak NLCC / NMHS link
• poor rain station coverage
• national station data incomplete / errors
• NLCC does not make use of data
• FAO/DLIS does not use forecast products
• weak NLCC / NMHS link
increase rains stations?
reduce transmission errors?
indicate data requirements?
use forecast products?
regional workshop
increase rains stations?
reduce transmission errors?
indicate data requirements?
use forecast products?
regional workshop
Potential solutionsPotential solutions
• poor rain station coverage
• national station data incomplete / errors
• NLCC does not make use of data
• FAO/DLIS does not use forecast products
• weak NLCC / NMHS link
• poor rain station coverage
• national station data incomplete / errors
• NLCC does not make use of data
• FAO/DLIS does not use forecast products
• weak NLCC / NMHS link
ID Day/Mo Hr Period .mm Station
61627 7 10 12 6 60 Linguere SEN
61627 7 10 18 12 60 Linguere SEN
61627 8 10 6 24 20 Linguere SEN
62640 7 10 12 24 722 Abu Hamed SUD
62640 8 10 0 24 700 Abu Hamed SUD
62650 7 10 12 24 722 Dongola SUD
62660 7 10 12 24 622 Karima SUD
62660 7 10 21 24 700 Karima SUD
62660 8 10 0 24 600 Karima SUD
62680 7 10 21 24 622 Atbara SUD
62721 7 10 12 24 722 Khartoum SUD
62721 7 10 21 24 622 Khartoum SUD
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This week’s challenges …This week’s challenges …
improve NMHS support to NLCCs
provide useful weather data
improve weather forecasts
improve NMHS support to NLCCs
provide useful weather data
improve weather forecasts
Keith Cressman FAO Locust Forecasting OfficerKeith Cressman FAO Locust Forecasting Officer