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Lecture Structure
Aims Methods of Comparison Single Case Study Using Quantitative Literature Applying a Theory vs. Discursive Method
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Methodology
Definition: A body of methods, rules, and postulates
employed by a discipline: a particular procedure or set of procedures.
The analysis of the principles of inquiry in a particular field.
(Merriam-Webster Dictionary)
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Questions addressed in this course
How should we study conflict? What causes conflict? Who participates in conflict? How do people behave during conflict? What are the consequences of conflict? How do we evaluate conflict?
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Comparing Literature
What is the key similarity between Mamdani (2001) and Collier & Hoeffler
(2004)?
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Comparing Literature
Mamdani (2001) Rwandan genocide 1994 Qualitative evidence
Collier and Hoeffler (2004) Civil conflicts 1960-1999 Quantitative evidence
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Methods of Comparison
Three basic approaches to answering a research question: Large-N: > 50 cases. Small-N: 2-20 cases. Single case study: 1 case.
N = number of cases/observations.
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Small-n (aka ‘comparative method’)
Cases are intentionally selected in order to establish ‘control.’
Most Similar Systems Design (MSSD). Similar cases. Different outcome.
Most Different Systems Design (MDSD). Different cases. Same outcome.
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Most Similar Systems Design (MSSD)
Which cases would you use to investigate the link between ethnic tensions and civil
war, using this research design?
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Most Different Systems Design (MDSD)
Which cases would you use to investigate the link between ethnic tensions and civil
war, using this research design?
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What is a Single-Country Study?
“any study in which a single country forms the basic unit of analysis, but which may also be broken down into smaller units across time and space...” (Landman, 2000: 86)
N = 1
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Functions of a Case Study Classification. Contextual description. Hypothesis generation. Theory testing:
Most likely study. Least likely study.
Outliers. Process tracing.
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Further Reading
Landman, Todd. 2007. Issues and Methods in Comparative Politics: An Introduction. London: Routledge.
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Regression Analysis (1/2)
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4.5
Natural Resources/GDP
Con
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Collier & Hoeffler’s dataset by the numbers
98 countries
79 civil conflicts
1960-1999 divided into 5-year periods
750 observations
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Concepts in this Course
Authority and coercion; Structural violence and deadly force; Conflict and war; Positive and negative peace; Peacemaking; Peacekeeping; Peace enforcement; Peacebuilding; The military; and Militarism.
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Statistical Techniques
Used to look for patterns between variables.
Correlation: relationship between two variables.
Correlation is not the same as causation! Example: ice cream and summer.
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Regression
Adds a line of best fit to the observed result.
Regression analysis therefore measures the extent to which independent variables predict the dependent variable.
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Regression Analysis (1/2)
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.50
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1.5
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4.5
Natural Resources/GDP
Con
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Terminology
Significance Levels
Regressor/Predictor/Independent Variable
P-values
Confidence intervals
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Limitations
Cannot prove causation.
Limited interpretive ability (i.e. explaining why these relationships exist).
Use of proxies.
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Analysing Collier & Hoeffler (2004)
Q: Does natural resource prevalence explain the onset of civil conflict?
Steps to follow: How did they operationalise and measure these concepts. Do these proxies make sense? Is there correlation? In
other words – what do we see happening to the likelihood of conflict variable when we look at different natural resource/GDP values.
Ask how much we should read into the correlation. Ask the students here what might make us more or less likely to find one of the correlations important or suggestive of a causal relationship.
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Applying Theory Systematically
Logic of theory
Language that a theory demands
Units of analysis
Consistency through the paper
Acknowledging limitations