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Measuring Wireless TodayCTIA’s Semi-Annual Survey
-Measuring the How Many and How Much of the Wireless Industry
Dr. Robert F. Roche
CTIA Research
CTIA’s Semi-AnnualWireless Industry “Data Survey”
• Conducted semi-annually since January 1985 -
surveys facilities-based service providers (licensees)
and lays down the benchmarks for the wireless industry:
– how many revenue-generating subscribers
– how much service revenue
– how much cumulative capital investment
– how many operational cell sites/switches
– how many direct employees
– average local monthly bill
– usage measurements
CTIA’s Semi-AnnualWireless Industry “Data Survey”
– Does not track price per minute
– Does not track “Cost per Gross Add”
– Does not track prospective investment
– Does not track specific pricing plans (e.g., One-rate type offerings)
– Does not maintain carrier-specific data, only aggregate industry data
– Nonetheless, collected data does provide basis for variety of benchmarks, both direct and derived benchmarks / ratios.
Revenue Generating Subscribership
We ask carriers to report:
• Total Beginning and ending revenue-generating subscribers,
• Digital Beginning and ending revenue-generating subscribers,
• Beginning and ending prepaid subscribership,
• Gross additions, and
• Total disconnects for the six month survey period.
Reported Wireless Subscribers 1985 - 2001
91,600
203,600
340,213
480,032
649,825
777,978
1,196,649
1,607,597
2,051,141
2,688,793
3,465,944
4,316,686
5,188,055
6,074,777
7,199,422
8,564,111
10,310,034
12,050,822
14,716,025
17,883,306
22,501,378
26,454,826
31,413,734
35,230,983
40,688,000
46,239,973
52,473,996
57,587,407
65,817,507
72,939,725
80,408,389
89,095,529
109,674,358
103,641,514
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
Jan-85
Jun
-85
Dec-85
Jun
-86
Dec-86
Jun
-87
Dec-87
Jun
-88
Dec-88
Jun
-89
Dec-89
Jun
-90
Dec-90
Jun
-91
Dec-91
Jun
-92
Dec-92
Jun
-93
Dec-93
Jun
-94
Dec-94
Jun
-95
Dec-95
Jun
-96
Dec-96
Jun
-97
Dec-97
Jun
-98
Dec-98
Jun
-99
Dec-99
Jun
-00
Dec-00
Jun
-01
203,600
500,000
883,778
1,608,697
2,691,793
4,368,686
6,380,053
8,892,535
13,067,318
19,283,306
28,154,415
38,195,466
48,705,553
60,831,431
76,284,753
97,035,925
118,397,734
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Estimated Wireless Subscribership: June 1985 - June 2001
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
Dec-95 Jun-96 Dec-96 Jun-97 Dec-97 Jun-98 Dec-98 Jun-99 Dec-99 Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01
Derived Analog Subscribers Reported Digital Subscribers
Total Service Revenues
The “total service” revenues we track are composed of:
• Local service revenues,
• Roaming revenues,
• Prepaid revenues, and
• Vertical service charges.
• Toll revenues have only been tracked since December 1998, and are tracked separately from the traditionally defined “total service” revenues.
$1
76
,23
1
$3
06
,19
7
$3
60
,58
5
$4
62
,46
7
$4
79
,51
4
$6
72
,00
5
$8
86
,07
5
$1
,07
3,4
73
$1
,40
6,4
63
$1
,93
4,1
32
$2
,12
6,3
62
$2
,42
2,4
58
$2
,65
3,5
05
$3
,05
5,0
17
$3
,63
3,2
85
$4
,18
9,4
41
$4
,81
9,2
59
$6
,07
5,9
16
$6
,51
9,0
31
$7
,71
0,8
91
$8
,74
9,6
25
$1
0,3
31
,61
4
$1
1,1
94
,24
7
$1
2,4
40
,72
4
$1
3,1
34
,55
1
$1
4,3
51
,08
2
$1
5,2
86
,66
0
$1
7,8
46
,51
5
$1
9,3
68
,30
4
$2
0,6
50
,18
5
$2
4,6
45
,36
5
$2
7,8
20
,65
5
$3
0,9
05
,72
1
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
$30,000,000
$35,000,000
Jun
-85
Jun
-86
Jun
-87
Jun
-88
Jun
-89
Jun
-90
Jun
-91
Jun
-92
Jun
-93
Jun
-94
Jun
-95
Jun
-96
Jun
-97
Jun
-98
Jun
-99
Jun
-00
Jun
-01
Six-Month Revenues: June 1985 - June 2001(in Thousands)
$89,331
$121,368
$173,199
$192,350
$263,660
$302,329
$401,325
$436,725
$537,146
$587,347
$774,266
$778,116
$1,052,666
$1,120,337
$1,422,233
$1,314,943
$1,465,992
$1,392,440
$1,581,765
$1,584,891
$1,915,578
$1,922,416
$2,163,001
$1,971,625
$1,911,356
$1,727,058
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
Dec-88
Jun
-89
Dec-89
Jun
-90
Dec-90
Jun
-91
Dec-91
Jun
-92
Dec-92
Jun
-93
Dec-93
Jun
-94
Dec-94
Jun
-95
Dec-95
Jun
-96
Dec-96
Jun
-97
Dec-97
Jun
-98
Dec-98
Jun
-99
Dec-99
Jun
-00
Dec-00
Jun
-01
Six-Month Roamer Revenues: June 1985 - June 2001(in Thousands)
Average Local Monthly Bill
We request carriers report:
• The average local monthly bill, which is based on:– Local service revenues,– Including charges for vertical services in the local serving area.
• This is exclusive of:– Toll and roaming revenues,– Equipment-related revenues,– Taxes, fees, or pass-through surcharges.
• This is based only on active revenue-generating subscribers.
Average Local Monthly Bill 1993 - 2001
$67.31
$61.49
$58.65$56.21
$52.45$51.00
$48.84$47.70
$43.86 $42.78
$39.88 $39.43 $40.24 $41.24
$45.15 $45.27 $45.56
$0.00
$15.00
$30.00
$45.00
$60.00
$75.00
Jun-93 Dec-93 Jun-94 Dec-94 Jun-95 Dec-95 Jun-96 Dec-96 Jun-97 Dec-97 Jun-98 Dec-98 Jun-99 Dec-99 Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01
Cumulative Capital Investment
We request carriers report:
• Total cumulative capital investment, including
• Cumulative System/Network capital investment,
• Cumulative Non-system/non-network capital investment.
• This is exclusive of the cost of licenses (whether bought at public or private auction, or otherwise acquired), and excludes intangibles.
• This is not reduced by accumulated depreciation.
$588,751
$1,140,163
$1,724,348
$2,589,589
$3,675,473
$5,211,765
$7,429,739
$9,276,139
$12,775,967
$16,107,921
$21,721,711
$26,707,046
$37,454,294
$50,178,812
$66,782,827
$76,652,358
$99,728,965
$0
$10,000,000
$20,000,000
$30,000,000
$40,000,000
$50,000,000
$60,000,000
$70,000,000
$80,000,000
$90,000,000
$100,000,000
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Cumulative Capital Investment: June 1985 - June 2001(in Thousands)
Cell Sites
We request carriers report:
• The total number of commercially operational cell sites as of the end of the survey period.
• Non-operational cell sites (e.g., those prior to service initiation) are not to be reported.
• We do not request carriers report these cell sites broken down by technological flavor – i.e., GSM v. TDMA v. CDMA v. AMPS.
• We do not track the number of “towers” nor do we adjust the figures for non-responding companies or for co-location.
599
1,194
1,732
2,789
3,577
4,768
6,685
8,901
11,551
14,740
19,844
24,802
38,650
57,674
74,157
95,733
114,059
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Cell Sites in Commercial Use: June 1985 - June 2001
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
Jun-85
Jun-86
Jun-87
Jun-88
Jun-89
Jun-90
Jun-91
Jun-92
Jun-93
Jun-94
Jun-95
Jun-96
Jun-97
Jun-98
Jun-99
Jun-00
Jun-01
Rep
ort
ed S
ub
scri
ber
s
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Rep
orted
Cell S
ites
Reported Cell Sites Reported Subscribers
Reported Subscriber and Cell Site Trends
Minutes of Use and Average Length of Call
We request carriers report:
• Total local billable minutes of use and billable calls;
• Total roaming billable minutes of use and billable calls;
• Total prepaid billable minutes of use and billable calls (a subset of local minutes of use and calls).
• This makes possible calculation of total reported industry billable MOUs, as well as:
– the average length of call for each subset, – a straight average MOUs per reported subscriber for the period (based on
reported MOUs and average reported subscribership).
Total Reported Billable Minutes of Use
0
25,000,000,000
50,000,000,000
75,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
125,000,000,000
150,000,000,000
175,000,000,000
200,000,000,000
225,000,000,000
Jun-92
Dec-92
Jun-93
Dec-93
Jun-94
Dec-94
Jun-95
Dec-95
Jun-96
Dec-96
Jun-97
Dec-97
Jun-98
Dec-98
Jun-99
Dec-99
Jun-00
Dec-00
Jun-01
0
40,000,000
80,000,000
120,000,000
160,000,000
200,000,000
240,000,000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Su
bsc
rib
ers
0
50,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
150,000,000,000
200,000,000,000
250,000,000,000
300,000,000,000
Rep
orted
MO
Us
Subscribers Total MOUs
Wireless Demand and Usage Trends
Carrier Employment
We request carriers report:
• The total number of direct carrier employees,
• The total number of direct sales employees,
• The total number of other direct employees.
• We do not further segment the reported employee base, nor do we track sales agents or their employees.
1,697
3,556
5,656
9,154
13,719
18,973
25,545
30,595
36,501
45,606
60,624
73,365
97,039
113,111
141,929
159,645
186,317
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Direct Employment by Wireless Service Providers:June 1985 - June 2001