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Measuring Time & Effort How and How Much
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How Long Is the Coast of Britain? Statistical Self-Similarity and Fractional Dimension
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“Geographical curves are so involved in their detail that their lengths
are often infinite or, rather, undefinable. However, many are statistically "self-
similar," meaning that each portion can be considered a reduced-scale image of
the whole. In that case, the degree of complication can be described by a quantity
D that has many properties of a "dimension," though it is fractional; that is, it
exceeds the value unity associated with the ordinary, rectifiable, curves.”
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How Long Is the Coast of Britain? Statistical Self-Similarity and Fractional Dimension
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The Coastline Paradox
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How do we measure?
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How do we measure?
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How do we estimate?
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1. Bottom-Up
2. Top-Down
3. Comparative
4. Parametric
5. Three-point
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Estimating ➞ Measuring
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Fudge Ratio
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1. Start guestimating things
2. Write down your guestimate
3. Do
4. Write down the actual time spent
5. Calculate your "fudge ratio"
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Estimate and perform a task
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2015hrs estimated
hrs actual
1.33fudge ratio
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Estimate a task
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20hrs estimated new hrs estimated
26.61.33fudge ratio
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How much do we estimate?
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The One-Sitting Rule
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Compensate for Experience
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The 40-70 Rule
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an accurate Fudge Ratio
an appropriate unit of measurement
the optimal estimate
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Thanks!@ErikReagan @FocusLabLLC