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Global Research Limited
Week : June 20th to 25th June’ 2011
WEEKLYREPORT
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COMMODITYCOMMODITYMarket
Base Metals Settle Lower On
Weak Us Economic Data
Analyst Speak
Premiumsegment
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Economic Data
Week : June 20th to 25th June’ 2011 Week : June 20th to 25th June’ 2011
[ 2 ] [ 3 ]
Fundamental Market Overview
Gold rose nearly 1 percent on Friday, notching its biggest one-day gain 30-day average, preliminary Reuters data s howed, consistent within three weeks, as a sharp dollar drop amid an outline agreement to aid recently lower levels as investors switched their focus on the equitydebt-burden Greece boosted investor appetite across the board. A markets. Even as Gold benefits from a disappointing U.S. economicstring of recent lackluster U.S. economic data, worries Greece's debt outlook, the metal has failed to breach its record high $1,575 set in earlycrisis may escalate and uncertainty related to U.S. debt ceiling talks May. Technical selling, a firm dollar combined with sliding crude oilalso lifted the metal for a sm all weekly gain. Bullion is up nearly 5 prices have kept Gold from rising further. On Friday, investor sentimentpercent in the past 30 days. Gold accelerated gains after mixed U.S. improved after Greece's embattled prime minister replaced his financedata point to a wobbly economic recovery. U.S. consumer sentiment minister to force an unpopular austerity plan, and as the euro rose onworsened more than forecast in J une on continued economic hopes for a new Greek aid package after Germany and France pulledpessimism, but a key measure of future U.S. economic activity rose together on a rescue approach.more than expected in May to a record high. U.S. August Gold futuressettled up $9.20 at $1,539.10 an ounce, after trading between
$1,523.20 and $1,543 an ounce. Trading volume was almost half of its
GOLD POSTS BIGGEST ONE-DAY GAIN IN 3 WEEKSMarketwatch
Oil prices fell on Friday, with U.S. crude slumping to a four-month low biggest weekly loss since the week to May 6. Brent is up 19 percent thisunder $93 as a dimmer economic outlook and the European debt crisis year, while U.S. futures are up less than 2 percent as the Europeandrove crude to its biggest weekly loss since early May. U.S. futures fell market rose to a record premium.more than $3 a barrel as momentum sellers piled into the slide. U.S.crude's discount to Brent widened by more than $1 to $19.90 a barrel.Oil broke away from familiar correlations, diving in tandem with thedollar and despite gains for many commodities.U.S. crude futures for July settled at $93.01 a barrel, down $1.94, or2.04 percent, it's lowest since the Feb. 18. It traded from $91.84 to$95.40 Friday. U.S. crude fell below the 200-day moving average forthe first time since September, drawing additional selling. Brent crudefor August settled at $113.21 a barrel, dropping 81 cents, or 0.71percent, the lowest settlement since May 24, when front-month Brentclosed at $112.53. Trading volume was about 20 percent below the 30-day average. For the week, front-month Brent fell 4.7 percent, the
OIL DROPS, BIGGEST WEEKLY SLIDE SINCE MAYMarketwatch
Copper closed almost flat on Friday, after mixed data pointing to aCopper inventories fell by more than 5 percent to 470,825 tonnes fromshaky economic recovery in the United States limited gains from alast week, when they hit their highest in more than a year. The Copperweaker dollar. Benchmark Copper on the London Metal Exchangecontango, which generally indicates supply exceeds demand in theclosed at $9,095 a tonne, from $9,065 at the close on Thursday. It hit anear term, has narrowed from a nine-month high of $30 in early May tosession high of $9,189. U.S. consumer sentiment worsened this month,$8.50 a tonne. The medium-to-long term outlook lead market remainsalthough a gauge of future economic activity rose in May. The reportsfundamentally positive.are the latest to suggest that the world's largest economy continued to
spin its wheels in the second quarter. A softer dollar against a basket ofcurrencies lent support to base metals prices. A weaker U.S. currencymakes dollar-priced commodities more affordable for holders of othercurrencies.
COPPER ENDS UP DESPITE DIM ECONOMIC PROSPECTSMarketwatch
Date Time Currency Economic Data Forecast Previous
TueJun 14
4:30am FOMC Member Fisher SpeaksUSD
6:00pm Core Retail Sales m/mUSD
WedJun 15
6:00pm Core CPI m/mUSD
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.1%
-0.3%
0.2%
0.9%
0.4%
0.2%
0.6%
0.8%
0.5%
0.3%
1.1%
6:00pm CPI m/mUSD
6:00pm PPI m/mUSD
6:00pm Retail Sales m/mUSD
6:00pm Core PPI m/mUSD
1:00pm Treasury Sec Geithner SpeaksUSD
13.7 11.96:00pm Empire State Manufacturing IndexUSD
45.3B 24.0B6:30pm TIC Long-Term PurchasesUSD
77.2% 76.9%6:45pm Capacity Utilization RateUSD
0.3% 0.0%6:45pm Industrial Production m/mUSD
16 167:30pm NAHB Housing Market IndexUSD
-4.8M8:00pm Crude Oil InventoriesUSD
ThuJun 16
6:00pm Building PermitsUSD
421K
0.55M
427K
0.56M
6:00pm Unemployment ClaimsUSD
-126B -113B6:00pm Current AccountUSD
0.54M 0.52M6:00pm Housing StartsUSD
7.3 3.97:30pm Philly Fed Manufacturing IndexUSD
80B8:00pm Natural Gas StorageUSD
FriJun 17
7:25pm Prelim UoM Consumer SentimentUSD 74.7
4.1%
74.3
7:25pm Prelim UoM Inflation ExpectationsUSD
0.3% -0.3%7:30pm CB Leading Index m/mUSD
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W e e k l y C h a r t
GOLD
Week : June 20th to 25th June’ 2011
COMEX Gold is in an upward phase. Last week
COMEX Gold was sustaining at higher levels. In
the coming week 1500 $ will act as a major support
in COMEX Gold. If COMEX Gold sustains above
1555 $ an ounce then above 1560 $ an ounce it can
touch the level of 1575$ an ounce and if COMEX
Gold sustains below 1500$ then it can slightly
correct and test the level of 1485$ an ounce.
MARKET OVERVIEW
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if COMEX Gold sustains above 1530 $ an ounce, then
above 1555$ it can test the level of 1575$ an ounce and above 1585$ it can further move upward. Trade by keeping
the strict stop losses.Major support for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1500$ and 1460$.Major resistance for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1575$ and 1625$Major support in MCX Gold is 22400 and 22200Major resistance in MCX Gold is 22800 and 23050
STRATEGY
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script Levels
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
1594
1562
1550
1531
1519
1499
1467
W e e k l y C h a r t
SILVER
Week : June 20th to 25th June’ 2011
ExpertObservation
[ 4 ] [ 5 ]
COMEX Silver is technically consolidating on
charts. Last week COMEX Silver neither sustain on
higher levels nor at lower levels. For the upcoming
week 3430$ and 3230$ are the crucial supports
and 3800$ and 4000$ are crucial resistance in
COMEX Silver. In MCX Silver 56300 and 59000 will
act as major resistance and 51800 and 49000 will
act as major supports.
MARKET OVERVIEW
Technically COMEX Silver is bullish on charts and still in an upward channel, For the next week traders can use buy on
lower level strategy if Silver sustains above the level of 3600$ an ounce, then above 3700$ an ounce it can further go
upward and can test the level of 3880$ an ounce. Trade by keeping the proper stop losses.
STRATEGY
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script Levels
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
4034
3854
3743
3675
3564
3495
3316
ExpertObservation
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W e e k l y C h a r t
CRUDE
Week : June 20th to 25th June’ 2011
NYMEX Crude is in upward phase. Last week
Crude oil was not sustaining at higher level. For the
coming week 89$ and 84.85$ will act as major
supports and 98$ and 104.50$ a barrel will be a
major resistance in NYMEX Crude. In MCX Crude
Oil major resistance is found at 4400 and 4630 and
major supports will be 3980 and 3740.
MARKET OVERVIEW
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy, if NYMEX Crude sustains above the level of 94.70 $ a
barrel then above 97.75$ it can slightly come up and touch the level of 102 $ a barrel and in MCX if Crude sustains
above 4270 then above 4350 it can touch the level of 4500.Trade by keeping the proper stop loss.
STRATEGY
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script Levels
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
111.15
103.04
98.03
94.93
89.92
86.82
78.71
W e e k l y C h a r t
COPPER
Week : June 20th to 25th June’ 2011
ExpertObservation
[ 6 ] [ 7 ]
Copper is in a consolidation phase and traders
should use the strategy of buy on lower levels. Last
week COMEX Copper was sustaining at higher
level for most part of week and closed above to its
previous week closing. If next week COMEX
Copper sustains above the level of 415 then below
the level of 420 Copper can test the level of 430. In
MCX Copper sustains above 410 then above 415 it
can test the level of 425 if it does not break the level
of 397 on the downside.
MARKET OVERVIEW
For the upcoming week 425 and 437 will act as major resistance and 398 and 389 will act as major supports in COMEX
Copper. For MCX Copper major resistance would be 415 and 425 and supports would be found at 396 and 385.
STRATEGY
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script Levels
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
444.02
426.97
418.58
409.92
401.53
392.87
375.82
ExpertObservation
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W e e k l y C h a r t
NATURAL GAS
Week : June 20th to 25th June’ 2011
Natural Gas is in a slightly downward phase and
traders should use the strategy of buying on lower
levels. Last week Natural Gas was consolidating
for most part of the week but on the last two days it
came down. If next week Natural Gas sustains
above the level of 4.400 $ then above the level of
4.425$ Natural Gas can test the level of 4.500 $ and
below 4.300 $ Natural Gas can slightly go down
and test the level of 4.150 $. In MCX, if Natural Gas
sustains above 197 in the coming week then it cantest the level of 202, if it does not break the level of
188 on the downside.
MARKET OVERVIEW
For the upcoming week 4.200$ and 4.000$ will act as major supports and 4.480$ and 4.730$ will act as major
resistance in US Natural Gas. For MCX Natural Gas major resistance would be 201 and 207, supports would be found
at 188 and 182.
STRATEGY
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script Levels
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
5.472
4.978
4.978
4.484
4.158
3.990
3.496
W e e k l y C h a r t
USD / INR
Week : June 20th to 25th June’ 2011
ExpertObservation
[ 8 ] [ 9 ]
USD/INR is consolidating on charts so traders can
use the strategy of buying on lower levels. If next
week USD/INR sustains above the level of 44.8200
then above the level of 44.9600 USD/INR can test
the level of 45.4000 and below 44.5400 USD/INR
can slightly go down and test the level of 44.2500.
MARKET OVERVIEW
For the upcoming week 44.1500 and 43.9000 will act as major supports and 45.4500 and 46.0500 will act as major
resistance in USD/INR.
STRATEGY
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script Levels
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
45.5700
45.1700
44.9800
44.7700
44.5800
44.3700
43.9700
ExpertObservation
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Week : June 20th to 25th June’ 2011 Week : June 20th to 25th June’ 2011
[ 10 ] [ 11 ]
Weekly Market Update
Symbol Exchange ExpiryDate
CommodityName
Price UnitPrevious
CloseOpen LowHigh Close
Qty.Traded
NetOpen
Interest
WeeklyTurnOver
(Rs. in Lakhs)*
* Turnover Till Friday
MCXGOLD 5 -AUG -11 GOLD
RS. / 10GM. 22545 22560 2222222628 22622 130855 77 11934 2905998.63
COPPER MCX 30-JUN-11 COPPER RS. / KG. 401.6 401 398.85412.9 406.45 633986 4.85 22857 2564305.62
CRUDE OIL MCX 19-JUL-11 CRUDE OIL RS/QUINTAL 4482 4487 41724512 4204 137043 -278 10823 579501.35
NATURAL GAS MCX 27-JUN-11 NATURAL GAS RS. / BBL. 213.8 214 194.3216.2 195.5 177084 5414-18.3 409190.31
LEAD MCX 30-JUN-11 NATURAL GAS RS./ MM BTU 114.25 114.15 108.9115.9 109.3 87439 -4.95 3345 490597.46
LEADZINC MCX 30-JUN-11 RS. / KG. 101.05 101 97.65101.8 98.2 93829 -2.85 7096 466385.67
NICKEL MCX 30-JUN-11 NICKEL RS. / KG. 1024.3 1023.2 9691023.9 976.4 297718 -47.9 16733 737871.17
ALUMINUM MCX 30-JUN-11 ALUMINIUM RS. / KG. 116.75 116.55 113.05117.6 113.35 26910 -3.4 3347 154224.45
SILVER MCX 5-JUL -11 SILVER RS. / KG. 54447 54208 5183354208 53948 403922 -499 14260 6383276.80
Commodity Watch
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Week : June 20th to 25th June’ 2011 Week : June 20th to 25th June’ 2011
[ 12 ] [ 13 ]
Weekly Market Update
CommodityExpiryDate
ClosingPrice
%Change
COPPER 30 –JUN-11 406.45 1.21
CommodityExpiryDate
ClosingPrice
%Change
NATURAL GAS 27 –JUN-11 195.50 -8.56
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Weekly Gainers Weekly Losers
International Market
Commodity Closing Price % Change
GOLD 1539.1 0.65
SILVER 3574.8 -1.59
COPPER 410.2 1.13
CRUDE OIL 99.29 0.00
NATURAL GAS 4.325 -9.08
USD/INR 44.79 0.16
Weekly Pivots
Scripts R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
GOLD 23302.00 22896.00 22758.00 22490.00 22352.00 22084.00 21678.00
SILVER 58079.67 55704.67 54826.33 53329.67 52451.33 50954.67 48579.67
COPPER 434.17 420.12 413.28 406.07 399.23 392.02 377.97
CRUDE OIL 4976.00 4636.00 4420.00 4296.00 4080.00 3956.00 3616.00
NATURAL GAS 245.80 223.90 209.70 202.00 187.80 180.10 158.20
LEAD 125.37 118.37 113.83 111.37 106.83 104.37 104.37
ZINC 107.52 103.37 100.78 99.22 96.63 95.07 90.92
NICKEL 1099.57 1044.67 1010.53 989.77 955.63 934.87 879.97
ALUMINUM 123.77 119.22 116.28 114.67 111.73 110.12 105.57
Commodity Watch
CRUDE OIL 19 –JUL-11 4204 -6.20
NICKEL 30 –JUN-11 976.40 -4.68
GOLD 05 –AUG - 11 22622 0.34
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