Download - Matt Griffin: How Did We Get Here?
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How Did We Get Here?
Matt Griffin
Pine Street Group
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Via6
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Via6
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Via6
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Mix of Inputs
• Personal experiences
• Assessment of the world 5-6 years ago
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Bike Trip Around the World 1986-87
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Interlaken Home 1977-2001
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Seaboard 2001
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Seaboard 2001
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Manhattan 2006
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NYC – Place to Hang Out
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Community – Making Friends
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5-6 Years Ago
• U.S running deficits – two wars
• Americans spending more than we make
• House appreciation taken as a given
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World
• Migration to cities
• Jobs from intellectual capital
• World is flat
• Traffic
• Energy costs
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Financial Crisis
• Spend more than we make
• Pile up of debt
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Financial Crisis
• Spend more than we make
• Pile up of debt
Mortgage availability
• Spend less than we make
• Lower cost/standard of living
• Use less resources
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US Household Debt as % of Disposable Income
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Environmental
• Green
• Global warming
• Energy efficiency
• Density
• Traffic
• Tolls, carbon tax, MVET, gas tax
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Work Force
• Intellectual capital
• Creative class
• Shortage of talent
• High tech talent is younger and more
mobile
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Work Force
• Intellectual capital
• Creative class
• Shortage of talent
• High tech talent is younger and more
mobile
Younger, college educated is more urban
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Urban Centers Draw More Young-Educated Adults
In 2000, young adults with a four-year degree were about 61% more likely to live in close-in urban neighborhoods than their less-educated counterparts. In 2011, they are about 94% more likely.
USA Today
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Seattle
• Green
• Traffic (+ 520 & 99)
• Mass transit
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Commute Seattle
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Seattle
• Green
• Traffic (+ 520 & 99)
• Mass transit
Advance degrees
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U.S. Seattle
Bachelor’s degree or higher (persons age 25+, 2007-2011)
28% 56%
U.S. Census Bureau
Education
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Seattle
• Green
• Traffic (+ 520 & 99)
• Mass transit
• Advanced degrees
Higher Ed
• Shrinking families, more singles
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U.S. Seattle
People Living Alone 27% 41%
Age 18-64 (2011) 63% 74%
U.S. Census Bureau
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Seattle
• Green
• Traffic (+ 520 & 99)
• Mass transit
• Advanced
• degrees
• Shrinking families, more singles
Pets
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One Sea Change
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What’s this mean for urban living?
• 25-40
• older
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What’s this mean?
• Own less
• Live in less space
• Walkability
• Avoid that stinking, polluting, expensive
bummer
• Rent vs. buy
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Economist 10/18/13 issue, US Driving
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Based on
Driving 15,000
miles annually
Sedan
Average
SUV
4WD
Minivan
Cost Per Mile 59.6
cents
75.7
cents
63.4
cents
Cost Per Year $8,946 $11,360 $9,504
AAA ‘Your Driving Costs’ 2012
Cost to own and operate a vehicle in the U.S.
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WORLD FINANCIAL
ENVIRONMENTAL WORK FORCE
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Result
• Walkability
• Borrow it or rent it
• If not in my own place, nearby
• City streets and hood as living room
• Social – maybe greater
• Trade – parking for Wi-Fi and cell
• Internet pipes – cable, cat X, etc.
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Social
• Golf course for a café and pub
• Third place
• Ways to build community
• Cul-de-sac and kids
• Dog wash or nursery
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Older
• Is it much different?
• Flexibility
• Think younger
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Via6
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Via6
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Via6
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Via6
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Via6
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Via6
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What could screw it up?
• City doing stupid stuff with zoning
• Cutting Metro funding
• Not caring for infrastructure
• K-12
• Higher Ed
• Etc.
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