Mary KiczaDeputy Assistant Administrator forSatellite and Information ServicesNational Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration
Workshop on Achieving Satellite Instrument Calibration for Climate Change
National Conference CenterLansdowne, VA
May 16, 2006
Mary KiczaDeputy Assistant Administrator forSatellite and Information ServicesNational Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration
Workshop on Achieving Satellite Instrument Calibration for Climate Change
National Conference CenterLansdowne, VA
May 16, 2006
Keynote Address: NOAA, GEOSS, and Cal/Val
Keynote Address: NOAA, GEOSS, and Cal/Val
NOAA and Its Satellite Program
NOAA’s Mission
• To describe and predict changes in the Earth’s environment.
• To conserve and manage the Nation’s coastal and marine resources to ensure sustainable economic opportunities.
NOAA’s Programs and Goals
NOAA Data and Information are Essential for…
Hazards, Severe Weather, Watches, Warnings
Hazards, Severe Weather, Watches, Warnings
AgricultureAgriculture
TransportationTransportation
DefenseDefense
ClimateClimate
CommerceCommerce
IndustryIndustry
OceanOcean
EnvironmentalMonitoringEnvironmentalMonitoring
Has Observing Instruments On Land, Ocean, Air, And Space
Has Observing Instruments On Land, Ocean, Air, And Space
Land-BasedLand-Based
Air-BasedAir-Based
Ocean-BasedOcean-Based
Space-BasedSpace-Based
Makes Nautical ChartsMakes Nautical Charts
Provides Aerial Surveys and Navigation Response to Survey Channels for DebrisProvides Aerial Surveys and Navigation Response to Survey Channels for Debris
Hurricane Katrina
Monitors the Population of Endangered Species and
Monitors the Population of Endangered Species and
Stellar Seal LionStellar Seal Lion
Provides Support to FAA for Volcanic Ash Alerts
Provides Support to FAA for Volcanic Ash Alerts
NOAA-15 color enhanced image
Localized Changes In Ocean Temperatures (El Niño) Have A Major Impact On Climate And Weather
Localized Changes In Ocean Temperatures (El Niño) Have A Major Impact On Climate And Weather
NOAA’s El Niño Forecast Resulted In Worldwide Agricultural Benefits Of At Least $450 Million
NOAA’s El Niño Forecast Resulted In Worldwide Agricultural Benefits Of At Least $450 Million
Improved El Niño Forecasts Benefit U.S. Agriculture An Estimated $265 - $300 Million AnnuallyImproved El Niño Forecasts Benefit U.S. Agriculture An Estimated $265 - $300 Million Annually
El Niño Forecasts
Hurricanes Cause an Average of $5.1 Billion In Damages, And 20 Deaths Per
Year
Hurricanes Cause an Average of $5.1 Billion In Damages, And 20 Deaths Per
Year
Floods Account For $5.2 Billion In Damages, And Average Over 80 Deaths Per
Year
Floods Account For $5.2 Billion In Damages, And Average Over 80 Deaths Per
Year
Hurricane Isabel Left 27 Dead In 7 States And 3.3 Million People Without Electrical
Power
Hurricane Isabel Left 27 Dead In 7 States And 3.3 Million People Without Electrical
Power
NOAA SatellitesView smoke plumes
From World Trade CenterSeptember 11, 2001
NOAA SatellitesView smoke plumes
From World Trade CenterSeptember 11, 2001
NOAA polar satellite imageAt 5 pm EDT 9/11 showing plume
NOAA polar satellite imageAt 5 pm EDT 9/11 showing plume
GOES captured the plumeWithin minutes of the incidentGOES captured the plumeWithin minutes of the incident
NOAA’s Operational Environmental Satellites
NOAA provides an OPERATIONAL remote sensing capability for
acquiring and disseminating GLOBAL and regional imagery and
measurements of the environment, including METEOROLOGICAL,
CLIMATIC, OCEANOGRAPHIC, SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL, and HAZARDS
data, in support of the NOAA mission and the benefit of the Nation.
AcquisitionAcquisition LaunchLaunch Command & Control
Command & Control
Real-Time Product Development
Real-Time Product Development
Archive & Access
Archive & Access Assessments
Requirements & Planning
Requirements & Planning
User Services
An End-to-End Responsibility
The U. S. has made and continues to make investments in civil operational satellites observing systems.
Such systems allow us to
describe
understand
forecast
assess
the earth and its environment
National Investment
• Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) and GOES-R
• Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES)
• National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS)
• Processing/distribution of non-NOAA satellite data– DMSP, International geostationary satellites, QuikSCAT,
TOPEX, ERS-2, EOS Terra and Aqua, SeaWIFS
• Environmental Data Management– National Climatic Data Center – National Oceanographic Data Center– National Geophysical Data Center
• Applications Research and Development
• Joint NOAA/NASA/DoD Satellite Data Assimilation Center
NOAA Programs that Support Monitoring the Earth-Climate System
Atmospheric Products: Examples
Winds Total Water Vapor Temperature 500 mb
Rain Rate OzoneAerosol Optical Thickness
Ocean Products: Examples
SST Anomalies Hot Spots: Potential Coral Bleaching
QuikSCAT Winds Sea WIFS Ocean Color
TOPEX Sea Level
Land Surface Products: Examples
Vegetation Health
Snow
Solar Radiation
QuebecFires/Smoke
Global Lights/Fires
Satellite Continuity CY 99 00 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1803 08 09 1001 02 0704 05 06
DMSP
POES
Aqua
C2 or C1
DMSPPOES
NPP
Terra
METOP
WindSat
19
GIFTS/IOMI ?
20 21F
utu
re System
s
GOES
Polar0530
0730
1030
1330
Geostationary
Loca
l Equ
ato
rial C
ross
ing
Tim
e NPOESSNPOESS
NPOESSNPOESS
NPOESSNPOESS
Meteosat Meteosat 2nd GenerationMeteosat 2nd Generation
GOES – R SeriesGOES – R Series
GEOSS: A System of Systems
Attributes of an Integrated Global Observing System
Attributes of an Integrated Global Observing System
SustainedSustained
IntegratedIntegratedComprehensiveComprehensive
India INSATIndia INSATU.S. GOESU.S. GOES
GlobalGlobal
President’s StatementPresident’s Statement
Our cooperation will enable us to develop the capability to predict droughts, prepare for weather emergencies, plan and protect crops, manage coastal areas and fisheries, and monitor air quality
Group on Earth Observations (GEO)
Group on Earth Observations (GEO)
• Membership open to all countries
– 60 countries (including the EC) are now represented
• International organizations are participants
– 43 organizations are now represented
• Organized into 5 subgroups
• Established GEO Secretariat
• Established Implementation Plan Task Team
• Membership open to all countries
– 60 countries (including the EC) are now represented
• International organizations are participants
– 43 organizations are now represented
• Organized into 5 subgroups
• Established GEO Secretariat
• Established Implementation Plan Task Team
GEO Moves ForwardWorking Towards Implementation of the Global Observation System of Systems
(GEOSS)Received approval for formal GEO organization and 10-year implementation plan
Held GEO-I in May 2005, and GEO-II in December 2005
New GEO Secretariat Director, Jose Achache
Agreed to 2006 Work Plan and adopted a budget
Formally created GEO Committees
GEONETCast as tangible near term project to implement GEOSS
US announced intention to move GOES satellite over South America to help offset lack of sounder data in that region
Received approval for formal GEO organization and 10-year implementation plan
Held GEO-I in May 2005, and GEO-II in December 2005
New GEO Secretariat Director, Jose Achache
Agreed to 2006 Work Plan and adopted a budget
Formally created GEO Committees
GEONETCast as tangible near term project to implement GEOSS
US announced intention to move GOES satellite over South America to help offset lack of sounder data in that region
Global Earth Observation System of Systems
Integrated Observations & Data Management
Global Earth Observation System of Systems
Integrated Observations & Data Management
Intercalibration of foreign and domestic satellites is fundamental to GEOSS
Societal Benefit AreasSocietal Benefit Areas1. Improve Weather Forecasting
2. Reduce Loss of Life and Property from Disasters
3. Protect and Monitor Our Ocean Resources
4. Understand, Assess, Predict, Mitigate, and Adapt to Climate Variability and Change
5. Support Sustainable Agriculture and Combat Land Degradation
6. Understand the Effect of Environmental Factors on Human Health and Well-Being
7. Develop the Capacity to Make Ecological Forecasts
8. Protect and Monitor Water Resources
9. Monitor and Manage Energy Resources
1. Improve Weather Forecasting
2. Reduce Loss of Life and Property from Disasters
3. Protect and Monitor Our Ocean Resources
4. Understand, Assess, Predict, Mitigate, and Adapt to Climate Variability and Change
5. Support Sustainable Agriculture and Combat Land Degradation
6. Understand the Effect of Environmental Factors on Human Health and Well-Being
7. Develop the Capacity to Make Ecological Forecasts
8. Protect and Monitor Water Resources
9. Monitor and Manage Energy Resources
Importance of Cal/Val and Next Steps
Satellite Observations Have Contributed to More Accurate
Weather Forecasts
• Southern Hemisphere forecasts are now as accurate as NH forecasts
• Today’s 5-day forecasts as accurate as 3-day forecasts 25 years ago
• BUT …..forecast centers remove satellite biases approximately and empirically
• Improved calibration and intercalibration can be expected to lead to further gains in forecast accuracy
ECMWF
Satellite Observations Have Contributed to Improved Monitoring of Global Climate
Change
One Example:
May 3, 2006Federal Study Finds Accord on Warming By ANDREW C. REVKINA scientific study commissioned by the Bush
administration concluded yesterday that the lower atmosphere was indeed growing warmer ……
Above conclusion based on careful analyses of NOAA’s MSU observations (one analysis is shown on right)
But enormous challenges remain in monitoring global climate change
MSU Tropospheric Temp Anomaly (C) (U. Alabama)
Challenges in Monitoring Global Climate Change from Space
• Need to construct time series by stitching together observations of many satellites
• Extremely small signals– Atmospheric temperature
trends as small as 0.1 C/decade
– Ozone changes as little as 1%/decade
– Variations in the sun’s output as tiny as -0.02%/decade
• Different analyses of observations vary from:
-0.023 to +0.25 W/m2
• Good calibration and intercalibration are crucial
(Wilson, 03) Total Solar Irradiance
(After Frohlich)
Is the Earth Greening?
• NOAA’s AVHRRs have been used to construct a time series of Vegetation Index that indicates a greening Earth – but we don’t know if this is really happening because of uncertainties in calibration and intercalibration of the different satellites
• Good calibration and intercalibration are crucial
Pinatuboeruption
Equ
ato
r C
ross
ing
Tim
e
(After Heidinger)
Next Steps: NOAA/NIST Initiative in Satellite Calibration and Intercalibration
• A Government program is needed to assure instruments meet specification and pre-launch tests are traceable to SI standards, and the on-orbit satellite instrument observations are well calibrated and validated by means of careful analysis of instrument performance, satellite intercalibration and validation with reference sites
• On-orbit validation is needed for foreign satellite instruments to meet GEOSS objectives
• Inadequate calibration can result in economic benefit losses in the billion dollar range.
– Degraded climate trends and projections– Degraded weather forecasts– Degraded ocean and coastal ecosystems assessments– Degraded hazard support information (fires, flash floods, droughts)
• Benefits of improved calibration/intercalibration– Independent confirmation to ensure instruments meet specifications.– Independent recommendations for corrective actions– Better calibrated satellite observations for ecosystems, climate and weather applications
• Resulting in improved information for society
• Fundamental prerequisite for an Integrated Global Earth Observing Systems of Systems (GEOSS)
– Need to properly characterize and minimize observational errors before information can be used in Earth System Models.
Next Steps: Global Space-based Inter-Calibration System (GSICS)
• GSICS: A new World Meteorological Organization (WMO) program
• Overarching Goal: Ensure the comparability of satellite measurements provided at different times, by different instruments under the responsibility of different satellite operators
• Participants: WMO, satellite agencies, national standards institutes, national data centers, major NWP centers, and national research laboratories
• NOAA is taking a leading role
Next Steps: ASIC3 National Roadmap
• By developing a National Roadmap for improving satellite instrument calibration and intercalibration, this workshop will advance the nation’s ability to monitor, understand and predict our natural environment
• Best wishes for a successful Workshop