MARKET POTENTIALFOR GENE EDITING
Dr. Roger Johnson
RCJ Consulting
Denison, Iowa
Swine Summit 2018
Presentation Overview
■ The Challenges We Face
– Global
– Local
■ The Opportunities That Lay Ahead
– Global
– Local
■ Genetic Improvement Overview
– Traditional Strategies
– “New Generation” Strategies
▪ Genetic Engineering
▪ Cloning
▪ Gene Editing
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THE CHALLENGES WE FACE
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Global Challenges2014 2050
■ World Population 34%
■ Urbanization
– from 54% to 66%
■ Middle Class
– from 50% to 70%
Source: 2014 GAP Report 4
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Average Calorie Consumption
Source: ccafs.cigar.org/bigfacts 6
Global Agricultural Output
■ Protein Revolution by 2050
– 2x livestock, poultry & fish
➢ 70% in Developing Countries
➢ Grains & oilseeds demand
■ Protein Revolution – 2013 to 2030
– Poultry & Eggs 63%
– Milk 55%
– Ruminant Meat 44%
■ Protein Revolution – 2013 to 2023
– Fish consumption 9%
Source: 2014 GAP Report 7
Source: biotech-now.org 8
Productivity GAP
Source: 2014 GAP Report 9
Grains & OilseedsDemands & Supply by 2050
■ Current Growth Target
60% by 2050
– Corn 67%
– Rice 42%
– Wheat 38%
– Soybean 55%
Source: ccafs.cigar.org/bigfacts 10
Focus on United States of America
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No Shortage of Ag and Food Issues
■ Animal Welfare– Sow Housing, Rearing Practices
■ Antibiotic usage/resistance
■ Traceability
■ Export Barriers (Russia, China, EU)
■ Food Safety, Product Recalls, Imported Items
■ Local, Organic, Slow Food Movement
■ Immigration
■ Environment/Carbon Footprint
■ Food for Fuel-Ethanol
■ Sustainability
■ Nutritional Components of Food-Fat, Sodium, Gluten
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Meat Industry Buzz Words
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■ Local
■ Factory Farms
■ Group Housed
■ Free Range
■ Made in Rural America
■ GMO vs non-GMO
■ Natural
■ Organic
■ ABF
■ Never Ever
■ Never Ever3
■ Sustainability
■ Global Market or Consumers
■ Meat of Choice
■ HSUS & PETA
■ Food Fusion
■ Slow Food vs Fast Food
■ Animal Care Legislation
■ Superbugs
■ “Nightmare Bacteria”
■ Trans Fatty Acid
■ Gluten Free
■ Third Party Inspections
■ Carbon footprint
Changing Perception of “Responsibility”
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Market Share of Major Exporters5-year Average
Others
Argentina
Australia
Canada
EU
Former USSR
United States
Source: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Production Supply and Distribution (PS&D) Database17
OR …THE OPPORTUNITIESTHAT LAY AHEAD
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Source: https://21stcenturysocialcritic.blogspot.com/p/methane-information-and-discussions.html19
Arable Land Needed to Produce Fixed Quantity of Crop Products
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Source: FAO
68%
Land
Requirement
in 50 years
USA Corn Yield Trends
Source: USDA-NASS (as of Jan 2017)
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Adoption of GE Corn in USA - 2000-2017
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, June Agricultural Survey.
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Adoption of GE Soybeans in USA1996 - 2010
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GENETICIMPROVEMENTSTRATEGIES
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Traditional Strategies
▪ Selective Breeding vs
Natural Selection
▪ Within Line Selection
▪ Crossbreeding
• Inbreeding
• Outbreeding
• Rotational
• Terminal
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“New Generation” Strategies
■ Genetic Engineering
– Alteration & recombination of genetic material under laboratory conditions
■ Transgenics
■ GMO
■ Cloning
– Process of producing similar populations of genetically identical individuals
■ Gene Editing
– Insertion, deletion or replacement of DNA at a specific site in the genome
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Conventional Breeding vs Genetic Engineering
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Result GMO Grains
First Successful Clone: Dolly
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Cloning Summary
PROS
1. Produce the best animal
population.
2. Reproduce endangered or even
extinct species.
3. Way to quickly create more
sources of food, especially meat.
4. Good for genetic testing and
drug research.
5. Bring back lost pets.
CONS
1. Cannot bring back a beloved pet’s
personality.
2. Can be seen as animal cruelty.
3. Is expensive.
4. Reduces genetic diversity.
5. Human cloning?
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Market Acceptability of Cloned Animals
2001 – 2008
■ FDA's Center for Veterinary
Medicine (CVM) asked livestock
producers to voluntarily keep food
from clones and their offspring out
of the food chain until CVM could
further evaluate the issue.
■ Iowa State Fair Champion Steer
– 2010 Champion was a clone
of 2008 Champion
– As a pre-caution, the meat
did not enter the public food
chain
Post-2008
FDA CVM concluded:
■ Cloning poses no unique risks to
animal health
■ Composition of clone food products
no different from conventional food
products
■ Therefore, no additional risks to
people eating food from clones or
clone offspring
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Gene Editing
■ Insertion,
deletion or
replacement of
DNA at a
specific site in
the genome
■ Techniques
– CRISPR
– TALENs
– ZFNs
– ODM
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First GE Approval: Salmon■ AquaBounty Technologies (early 1990’s)
■ Chinook Salmon can not mate with Atlantic Salmon
■ Genetic Editing
– Growth hormone gene from Chinook Salmon Atlantic Salmon
– GH regulator gene from Ocean Pout Atlantic Salmon
■ Results
– 2x Faster Growth■ 36 mon 18 mon
– Improved FE
■ USA
– Approved (11/2015)
but
– Not Available
■ Canada
– Approved (4/2016)
– Available (8/2017) 32
Species Target Targeted Trait/Goal
Cattle
• Intraspecies POLLED allele substitution • No horns
• Myostatin (gene knockout) • Increased muscle yield
• Beta-lactoglobulin (gene knockout) • Elimination of milk allergen
• Insertion of lysostaphin transgene • Disease resistance
• Insertion of lysozyme transgene • Disease resistance
• Insertion of SP110 transgene • Resistance to tuberculosis
Food Animal GE Applications
Knockout = inactivation of gene function
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Food Animal GE Applications
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Species Target Targeted Trait/Goal
Pig
• CD163 (gene knockout) • PRRS Virus Resistance
• Interspecies RELA allele substitution • African Swine Fever Resistance
• Myostatin (gene knockout) • Increased muscle yield
• “Puberty gene” • Eliminate Physical Castration
Source: Tousignant, 2015
Knockout = inactivation of gene function
Species Target Targeted Trait/Goal
Chicken• Ovalbumin (gene knockout) • Elimination of ovalbumin in egg
• Insertion of Immunoglobulin heavy chain locus • Germline gene editing
Goat
• Myostatin (gene knockout) • Increased muscle growth
• Prion protein gene knockout • Elimination of prion protein
• Beta-lactoglobulin gene knockout • Elimination of milk allergen
Sheep • Myostatin (gene knockout) • Increased muscle yield
Food Animal GE Applications
Knockout = inactivation of gene function
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Gene Editing Summary
PROS
1. Goodbye to inherent diseases
2. Longer and healthier lifespan
3. Solving problems – one at a
time, thus making the future
better
4. What’s wrong with looking good?
CONS
1. Not meant to be flawless
2. Too early to know
3. Playing God?
4. Designer babies?
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Gene Editing Status
■ January 2017
■ Draft FDA regulation
■ View “Animals whose
genomes have been
altered intentionally”
as drugs.
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#187
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Development & Adoption of
New Technology
➢ Misinformation Creates Fear
➢ Therefore, it is essential to tell
“THE” Story
rather than
“A” Story