Download - March 9 th , 2010
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March 9th, 2010
Money Marine Conference
Mustapha BoussaidDirector - Maritime Investments
7th Annual Gulf Ship Finance Forum Dubai, UAE
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Waha Capital at a glance…
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Factors influencing oil price…
What are the factors driving the oil price?
OPEC • Behaviour of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries..
Economy • The overall economic growth and recovery..
Natural Disasters • Hurricanes, tornados, tsunamis..
Geo-political events • Wars, tensions, political boycotts between countries in the oil industry…
Forecasting oil price helps in determining future demand for offshore rigs
Forecasting offshore rig activities will predict the demand for offshore support vessels
Oil prices are estimated to remain around $80/ barrel for the coming years
The base case scenario is derived from an average of 30 consecutive trading days of the NYMEX price for oil futures
Researchers believe oil prices will remain at around $80/ barrel for the coming years
1Q00
1Q02
1Q04
1Q06
1Q08
1Q10
1Q12
1Q14
1Q16
1Q18
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
Oil Price Scenarios2000 to 2018
US
Ligh
t Sw
eet C
rude
-(Q1
2010
USD
/bbl
)
Historical Base Case
Source: ODS-Petrodata Ltd
Iraq WarAsian GrowthWeaker Dollar
Recession
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Oil price: a driving force behind offshore activities…
Rig activity is strongly tied to the domestic price of oil
Research forecasts a net 67-rig increase in global demand for mobile offshore drilling units throughout the year 2011, which indicates potential growth in the world’s offshore market
The Asia Pacific region accounts for more than 35% of the total 743 outstanding offshore rig requirements
In the Middle East, the growth will be focused more on the jackup segment due to the shallower water environment
Oil prices Offshore rigs activity Offshore support vessels
Offshore & Onshore Active rigs
Regions with the highest outstanding drilling rig
requirementRegion # of ReqNW Europe 140S.E Asia 134West Africa 100Australia/N.Z 65Middle East 62Indian Ocean 48Others 194Total 743
Source: Baker-Hughes, Energy Information Administration (DOE)
Source: ODS-Petrodata Ltd
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The Middle East field developments
Key projects overview
Project Country Field Cost (USD)
Capacity in barrels a day
(b/d) or cubic feet a day (cf/d)
Scheduled Completion
Zakum full field development UAE Uppper Zakum $15bn 250,000 b/d 2015
Satah full field development UAE Satah $600m 25000 b/d 2013
Umm al-Dalkh full field development UAE Umm al-Dalkh $600m 25,000 b/d 2013
Nasr full-field development UAE Nasr $3bn 100,000 b/d 2013
Sath al-Rasboot (sarb) full field development UAE Sarb $1.5bn 110,000 b/d 2015
Umm al-Lulu full field development UAE Umm al-Lulu $1.5bn 100,000 b/d 2013
Al-Shaheen oil development Qatar Al-Shaheen $500m 330,000 b/d 2011
Manifa oil field Saudi Arabia Manifa $15bn 900,000 b/d 2015
Karan gas development Saudi Arabia Karan $5bn 1.8 bn cf/d 2012
Arabiyah-Hasbah development Saudi Arabia Arabiyah-Hasbah $4bn 750 m cf/d 2014
Key offshore projects in the Arabian Gulf produce 4.4 million b/d for a cost of $46.7 billion
Source: MEED projects
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Overview on the Middle East Offshore Market
118 rigs- 75.4% Utilization rate 366 OSV’s- 77% Utilization rate
The formula is : 1 rig = 3.1 OSV
4% 5%
87%
5%
Middle East OSV breakdown- 2010/2011
AHTS 15,000+bhp
AHTS 10,000-14,999 bhp
AHTS <10,000 bhp
PSV 3,000 +dwt
The Middle East holds 15% of worldwide mobile offshore drilling units
87% of the OSVs in the Middle East come from AHTS < 10,000 bhp
Based on ODS-Petrodata estimates, only 2 vessels are expected to be delivered in the M.E by 2012 which is good news for: - Utilization rate to remain high - Charter rate to remain constant
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Global Average 12 Month TC
AHTS (80t BP)AHTS (120t BP)AHTS (200t BP)AHTS (240t BP)PSV (3,200 dwt)PSV (4,000 dwt)US
D pe
r day
Source: ODS-Petrodata Ltd Source: CISL estimates, Clarkson
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Fleet Statistics
Geographic distribution of Global AHTS and PSV
Northwest Europe34%
West Africa10%
Asia-Pacific 19%
Latin America22%
Mediter-ranean/Middle
East7%
North America8%
Global Geographic Distribution- AHTS 15,000+ bhp fleet
Northwest Eu-rope9%
West Africa13%
Asia Pacific45%
Latin America17%
Mediter-ranean/
Middle East7%
North America9%
Global Geographic Distribution- AHTS 10,000-14,999 bhp fleet
Northwest Europe
5%
West Africa 15%
Asia-Pacific41%
Latin America6%
Mediter-ranean/
Middle East31%
North Amer-ica2%
Global Geographic Distribution- AHTS < 10,000 bhp fleet
Northwest Europe
36%
West Africa13%
Asia -Pacific13%
Latin America20%
Mediter-ranean/
Middle East3%
North Amer-ica
15%
Global Geographic Distribution- PSV 3,000 dwt fleet
Asia-Pacific still dominating the mid and light fleet segment ( < 14,999 bhp)
Middle East dominates the light fleet segment after Asia-Pacific ( < 10,000 bhp)
Source: ODS-Petrodata Ltd
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Fleet & Newbuilds
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
255075
100125150175200225250275
Global AHTS 15,000+ bhpFleet & newbuilds 2005-2013
NewbuildsFleet
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
255075
100125150175200225250275300
Global AHTS 10,000-14,999 bhpFleet & newbuilds 2005-2013
NewbuildsFleet
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
100200300400500600700800900
100011001200
Global AHTS < 10,000 bhpFleet & newbuilds 2005-2013
NewbuildsFleet
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Global PSV 3,000+ dwtFleet & newbuilds 2005-2013
NewbuildsFleet
Decrease in newbuilds for AHTS less than 10,000 bhp will keep utilization rates robust for the coming years..
Source: ODS-Petrodata Ltd
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Fleet Age
0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26+ years0
20
40
60
80
100
Global AHTS 15,000+ bhp fleet ageSeptember 2010-188 vessels
Num
ber o
f ves
sels
0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 > 30 years
020406080
100120140
Global AHTS 10,000-14,999 bhp fleet ageSeptember 2010- 239 vessels
Num
ber o
f ves
sels
0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 > 30 years
0
100
200
300
400
500
Global AHTS < 10,000 bhp fleet ageSeptember 2010- 1034 vessels
Num
ber o
f ves
sels
0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 > 30 years
050
100150200250300350
Global PSV 3,000+ dwt fleet ageSeptember 2010- 503 vessels
Globally, the market is dealing with young fleets: 48% of AHTS vessels are less than 5 years old
Most of AHTS < 10,000 bhp fleet is shaped of very young and very old vessels
Most of AHTS > 15,000+ bhp fleet is less than 10 years of age
Source: ODS-Petrodata Ltd
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Conclusion….
Oil prices will remain at approximately $80/barrel for the coming years
Oil prices and demand for offshore support vessels are positively correlated
Middle East is placed 6 in the global drilling rig requirement, holds 15% of offshore rigs
Global TC rates to decrease in the coming two years as supply continues to increase
On average, 1 rig will require 3 OSVs
The utilization rates in the shallow water regions will be kept robust in the coming years
Globally, 48% of AHTS vessels are less than 5 years old
Key projects in the Arabian Gulf produce 4.4million b/d for a cost of $46.7 billion
Thank you!
Mustapha BoussaidDirector- Maritime Investment