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March 25, 2019
MotoGaze March 2019
Muted demand continues to dent dispatches…
Auto volume dispatches were once again weighed down by the large dealer
inventory in the system, with the situation only having worsened as time has
gone by. Wholesale volumes for the month were at 24.1 lakh units, declining
2.5% YoY. Consequent YTD industry growth was at 8.2% YoY. Worryingly,
inventory levels continue to spiral despite the heavy discounting being
undertaken by OEMs since December in a bid to correct the overestimated
stocks build-up in anticipation of a strong festive season at the back end of
last year. According to data released by Federation of Automotive Dealers
Association (FADA), domestic retail sales declined 8.1% MoM to 15.8 lakh
units, with all segments displaying a drop. PV segment inventories increased
to 50-60 days of sales. The same was at a staggering 80-90 days overall on
the 2-W side and 100 days+ in some cases.
As per media reports, several OEMs are contemplating wide ranging
production cuts in March and beyond to liquidate excess system inventory.
The efficacy of these cuts, if true, is up in the air currently given the situation
on the ground has not improved despite concerted correction efforts already
underway since December in the form of record discounts. Going forward,
stakeholder commentary paints a sombre picture for the coming three to
five months as the industry grapples with muted retail demand, spiralling
inventories and the usual election related dip. Additionally, high base from
Q1FY19 would keep volumes subdued. For February 2019, 2-W dispatches
were down 3.0% YoY, PV (4W) de-grew 4.1% YoY, CV segment was down
2.3% YoY & 3-W grew 12.3% YoY. In the 2-W space, motorcycle segment
was flat YoY while scooter segment was down 11.3% YoY. LCV segment
was up 2.2% YoY while the M&HCV segment was down 8.6% YoY.
BAL, Hyundai, TML big winners in market share stakes!
In the 2-W space, incumbent market leader Hero MotoCorp continues to
cede space to rival Bajaj Auto, which is in the midst of an aggressive pricing
strategy. The latter has expanded its overall 2-W market share by 192 bps
YoY to 11.8% (YTD basis) despite being completely absent in the scooter
segment (~30% of total 2-W industry volumes). Elsewhere, in the UV space,
Hyundai and Tata Motors have improved their market share by 159 bps to
13.5% and by 291 bps to 8.2%, respectively, on the back of new launches
and the popularity of existing market leading models. On the CV side, most
players have had to participate in a discounting race to maintain market
share as competitors try to gain ground against incumbents.
Regulatory led price hikes in offing, muted prospects!
With the view on safety of commuters, the government has notified various
safety measures that will be mandatory in next few months thereby raising
the overall price incidence of vehicle at the consumer end, likely denting
incremental demand. Notable ones are from April 1 2019, ABS is mandatory
in all new 2-W units (125 cc & above) with price hike in the price sensitive 2-
W market being pegged at ~8-10%. It will be followed by the mandatory
norms of dual airbags, reverse parking assist systems, seat belt reminder,
etc, in the 4W category, starting July 1, 2019. It will be followed by the larger
implementation of BS-VI norms that will eventually see some pre-buying in
H2FY19 with demand expected to squeeze in FY20E given the high price
increase particular in the diesel slate of the pie. The only silver lining is the
Union Budget announcements on direct transfer of | 6,000 per annum to
small and marginal farmers, as well as increasing the maximum amount of
tax rebate for individuals earning up to | 5 lakh per annum will be a positive
for both the domestic tractor space as well as the 2-W space going forward.
Sector View
Negative
Volume performance for February 2019
Key players & industry volume growth – Feb 2019
(%)
Source: Company, SIAM
Key players & industry volume growth YTDFY19 (%)
Source: Company, SIAM
Shashank Kanodia, CFA
Jaimin Desai
Company Gr. YoY(%)
Hero MotoCorp -2.0
Bajaj Auto 9.8
TVS Motors 1.7
Maruti Suzuki 0.2
Tata Motors -5.7
Ashok Leyland 0.4
M&M 9.5
8.2
5.6
26.0
12.9
-0.6
5.9
16.8
12.1
2.6
15.4
Industry
HMCL
BAL
TVS
HMSI
Maruti
TML
M&M
Hyundai
ALL
YTDFY19
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Scooter segment particular pain point for 2-W space!
For February 2019, overall 2-W volumes were down 3.0% YoY to 18.8 lakh
units. Domestic 2-W volumes dipped 4.2% YoY to 16.9 lakh units, primarily
tracking much steeper 12.1% drop in scooter volumes. The motorcycle
segment was flattish YoY. Total 2-W exports were up 5.1% YoY, driven by
5.6% growth in the motorcycle segment. Moped volumes were up 2.8%
YoY to 76,125 units. Slowing scooter sales lowered share of scooters in
overall 2-W to 28% vs. 30% in February 2018. The 2-W market leader HMCL
delivered 2.0% YoY overall volume decline on account of a steep de-growth
in the scooter segment. HMSI, the second largest player, reported volume
de-growth of 16.1% YoY on the back of a broad based decline in segments
as well as geographies. On the flip side, BAL reported healthy overall 2-W
volume growth of 10.2% YoY. The industry’s 3-W volume grew 12.3% YoY,
driven by 44.0% YoY expansion in exports amid 4.1% decline in volumes
domestically.
Market share movement
According to data released by the Society of Indian Automobile
Manufacturers (Siam), domestic market shares of two and three-wheeler
players as of February 2019 are mentioned below.
Exhibit 1: Domestic market share movement in two-wheelers
Source: Siam, Data used is YTD\
Exhibit 2: Domestic market share movement in three-wheelers
Source: Siam, Data used is YTD
9.8
36.2
14.1
29.0
10.8
11.8
35.6
14.7
27.0
11.0
11.8
35.8
14.6
26.8
11.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Bajaj Auto Hero MotoCorp TVS Motors HMSI Others
(%
)
Feb-18 Jan-19 Feb-19
57.7
24.4
8.5
9.3
56.6
24.5
9.4
9.5
56.7
24.4
9.4
9.5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Bajaj Auto
Piaggio
M&M
Others
(%)
Feb-19 Jan-19 Feb-18
Overall 2-W segment volumes were down 3.0% YoY
in February 2019. BAL continued to gain market
share, which was at 11.8% on a YTD basis.
Conversely, market leader HMCL and second largest
player HMSI lost market share of 40 bps and 220 bps
on a YoY basis, to end February 2019 with market
share at 35.8% and 26.0%, respectively, on a YTD
basis
In February 2019, overall 3-W volumes grew 12.3%
YoY. The top two players in the industry i.e. BAL &
Piaggio consolidated their market share on YoY basis
at 56.7% & ~24.4%, respectively
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Exhibit 3: Domestic market share movement in motorcycles
Source: Siam, Data used is YTD
Exhibit 4: Domestic market share movement in scooters/scooters
Source: Siam, Data used is YTD
Exhibit 5: Market share movement in executive motorcycle (<125 cc) segment*
Source: Siam * only top four two-wheeler OEMs
Exhibit 6: Market share movement in motorcycle greater than 125 cc segment
Source: Siam *only top four vehicle two-wheeler OEMs
13.0
16.1
57.3
13.5
10.6
18.3
56.0
15.1
10.7
18.2
55.8
15.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Hero Motocorp TVS Motors Honda Others
(%
)
Feb-18 Jan-19 Feb-19
15.8
51.2
7.2
15.7
18.4
50.5
7.4
14.11
8.4
50.6
7.4
14.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Bajaj Auto Hero Motocorp TVS motor Honda
(%
)
Feb-18 Jan-19 Feb-19
21.7
57.2
7.9
13.2
0
4
8
12
16
20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
(%
)
(%
)
Bajaj Auto (RHS) Hero Motocorp (LHS) TVS (RHS) HMSI (RHS)
60.3
2.7
23.3
13.6
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
(%
)
(%
)
Bajaj Auto (LHS) Hero Motocorp (RHS) TVS (RHS) HMSI (RHS)
Domestic motorcycle volumes were flattish YoY in
February 2019. HMCL continues to be the market
leader in the space with market share in excess of
50%. However, its share dipped 60 bps YoY on a YTD
basis. BAL has gained significant market share at
the expense of margins with market share in the
motorcycle segment climbing to 18.4% in February
2019 vs. 15.8% in February 2018
Domestic scooter volumes de-grew 12.1% YoY in
February 2019. HMSI maintained its leadership
position in scooters with a market share of ~56%
YoY. With the introduction of new and innovative
product, the market share is on the rise for TVS
Motors with market share as of February 2019 at
18.2%, up 210 bps YoY. Hero MotoCorp, on the other
hand, is witnessing headwinds in its scooter
segment with continuous decline in market share
HMCL dominates the =<125 cc motorcycle
segment in India with a market share of 57.2%. Bajaj
Auto is the next largest player with a market share
of 21.7% on a YTD basis for the month ended
February 2019. Bajaj Auto is steadily gaining market
share at the expense of Hero MotoCorp as well as
HMSI on the back of its aggressive pricing strategy
BAL continues to dominate >125 cc motorcycle
segment in India with a market share at 60.3%.
HMSI’s volumes have been more volatile thereby
resulting in wide fluctuation in its market share in the
last 24 months
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Hero MotoCorp (HERHON)
Flattish volumes in motorcycle segment helped cushion the impact of a
sharp decline in the scooter segment in 2-W space market leader Hero
MotoCorp (HMCL). Pain in the scooter segment continued, with
February volumes de-growing 20.7% YoY, bringing the YTD decline to
16.0% YoY. Overall volumes declined 2% YoY
In the motorcycle space, market leader Splendor’s domestic volumes
grew 2.3% YoY while second highest selling model HF Deluxe displayed
strong 11.6% YoY growth
A drop in the scooter segment was on account of the dramatic fall in
erstwhile top seller Maestro (down 70.9% YoY, down 39.1% YTD; both
domestic), and Duet (down 61.9% YoY), which the recently launched
Destini 125 was unable to compensate for completely
Exhibit 7: Volume performance (in units)
Source: Company, Siam
Bajaj Auto (BAAUTO)
Bajaj Auto’s (BAL) 2-W volumes grew 10.2% YoY driven by 15.95% YoY
growth in exports volumes. BAL has continued to grow faster than the
industry in FY19, thereby expanding its 2-W market share by 192 bps
YoY to 11.8% on YTD basis as of February
Pulsar domestic volumes grew strongly at 38.4% YoY to 84,151 units
(driven by 125-150 cc category). The pace of growth in BAL’s entry level
segment (75-110 cc) at 12.7% YoY, slowed compared to previous
months although it still delivered the bulk of its domestic volumes. The
entry segment’s export market grew 27.8% YoY to 91,524 units, driven
by the Boxer model
BAL’s overall 3-W volumes grew 7.8% YoY to 65,104 units on the back
of strong 37.0% YoY growth in exports. Domestic volumes dropped
8.7% YoY. However, in YTDFY19, domestic 3-W volumes grew 10.9%
YoY, with resultant market share at 57.7% on YTD basis, up 100 bps YoY
Exhibit 8: Volume performance (in units)
Source: Company, Siam
Segment Feb-19 Feb-18 %chg Jan-19 %chg YTDFY'19 YTDFY18 %chg
Motorcycles 558,884 556,016 0.5 528,585 5.7 6,544,840 6,029,302 8.6
Scooters 58,331 73,581 -20.7 54,171 7.7 694,622 827,394 -16.0
Total Sales 617,215 629,597 -2.0 582,756 5.9 7,239,462 6,856,696 5.6
Export(inc. above) 16,599 24,242 -31.5 12,794 29.7 180,079 178,851 0.7
Exports (% of sales) 2.7 3.9 -116 bps 2.2 49 bps 2.5 2.6 -12 bps
Segment Feb-19 Feb-18 %chg Jan-19 %chg YTDFY'19 YTDFY18 %chg
Total 2-wheeler sales 327,985 297,514 10.2 350,460 -6.4 3,913,335 3,099,395 26.3
2W exports 141,462 122,025 15.9 147,102 -3.8 1,592,228 1,283,805 24.0
2W domestic sales 186,523 175,489 6.3 203,358 -8.3 2,321,107 1,815,590 27.8
Total 3-wheeler sales 65,104 60,369 7.8 56,690 14.8 712,817 573,048 24.4
3W exports 29,921 21,835 37.0 28,587 4.7 352,336 248,024 42.1
3w domestic sales 35,183 38,534 -8.7 28,103 25.2 360,481 325,024 10.9
Total Sales 393,089 357,883 9.8 407,150 -3.5 4,626,152 3,672,443 26.0
Total Domestic Sales 221,706 214,023 3.6 231,461 -4.2 2,681,588 2,140,614 25.3
Total Exports 171,383 143,860 19.1 175,689 -2.5 1,944,564 1,531,829 26.9
Exports as % of sales 43.6 40.2 340 bps 43.2 45 bps 42.0 41.7 32 bps
Hero MotoCorp: Sales volumes
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Bajaj Auto: Sales volumes
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
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TVS Motors (TVSMOT)
TVS’ overall volumes (2-W+3-W) for February were up 3.0% YoY to 2.99
lakh units. While 2-W volumes grew 1.7% YoY to 2.86 lakh units, 3-W
volumes grew 41.2% YoY to 13,472 units
Domestic motorcycle segment volumes grew 9.0% YoY to 73,430 units,
aided by recently launched Radeon (19,841 units). Domestic scooter
volumes were down 8.7% YoY at 83,151 units, with recently launched
Ntorq performing well amid slowdown in top selling model Jupiter. The
company’s overall moped volumes grew 2.8% YoY to 76,125 units
Export volumes grew 13.7% YoY to 66,570 units, with 2-W & 3-W
volumes up 6.8% YoY to 54,029 units & 57.2% YoY to 12,541 units,
respectively
Exhibit 9: Volume performance (in units)
Source: Company, Siam
Honda Motorcycles & Scooters India (HMSI)
HMSI’s overall February volumes fell 16.1% YoY to 436,041 units. The
decline was pervasive through segments as well as markets. Domestic
volumes were down 16.6% YoY while exports were down 8.8% YoY.
Overall motorcycle volumes dropped 11.7% YoY to 145,260 units while
overall scooter volumes dropped 19.0% YoY to 263,299 units
Within the scooter segment, HMSI’s market leading Activa model de-
grew 17.0% YoY to 2.05 lakh units. While Aviator and Grazia volumes
declined 71.0% YoY and 64.6% YoY, respectively, a 8.3% YoY growth
in Dio was the silver lining
In the motorcycle space, volumes of CB Shine were up 5.1% YoY to
86,355 units. Volumes of Dream were down 27.7% YoY to 20,382 units.
Volumes of its newly launched X-Blade were at 2,721 units, down from
3,098 units in January
Scooter exports increased 8.5% YoY to 18,492 units while motorcycle
exports declined 31.4% YoY to 8,990 units
Exhibit 10: Volume performance (in units)
Source: Company, Siam
Segment Feb-19 Feb-18 %chg Jan-19 %chg YTDFY'19 YTDFY18 %chg
Motorcycles 122,551 113,296 8.2 111,253 10.2 1,418,211 1,221,164 16.1
Scooters 86,935 93,573 -7.1 85,299 1.9 1,202,638 1,033,946 16.3
Mopeds 76,125 74,073 2.8 72,725 4.7 825,579 796,551 3.6
Total 2-W Sales 285,611 280,942 1.7 269,277 6.1 3,446,428 3,051,661 12.9
3-Wheelers 13,742 9,731 41.2 13,353 2.9 141,990 87,790 61.7
Total Sales 299,353 290,673 3.0 282,630 5.9 3,588,418 3,139,451 14.3
Exports(incl. in above) 66,570 58,564 13.7 52,650 26.4 685,333 510,418 34.3
Exports as % of sales 23.3 20.8 19.6 19.9 16.7
Domestice sales 232,783 232,109 0.3 229,980 1.2 2,903,085 2,629,033 10.4
Segment Feb-19 Feb-18 %chg Jan-19 %chg YTDFY'19 YTDFY18 %chg
Motorcycles 145,260 164,434 -11.7 128,525 13.0 1,776,286 1,801,576 -1.4
Scooters 263,299 325,204 -19.0 272,170 -3.3 3,522,006 3,556,557 -1.0
Total Sales 436,041 519,782 -16.1 422,178 3.3 5,651,533 5,683,613 -0.6
Exports(incl.above) 27,482 30,144 -8.8 21,483 27.9 353,241 325,480 8.5
Exports as % of sales 6.3 5.8 50 bps 5.1 121 bps 6.3 5.7 52 bps
Domestice sales 408,559 489,638 -16.6 400,695 2.0 5,298,292 5,358,133 -1.1
TVS Motors: Sales volumes
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
HMSI: Motorcycles & scooter sales volumes
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
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Eicher Motors (EICMOT)
Eicher Motors (EIM) overall volumes for February were down 12.8% YoY
to 65,194 units. While the less than 350 cc category de-grew 15.0% YoY
to 57,029 units, the more than 350 cc category de-grew 6.6% YoY to
5,601 units
Domestic motorcycle segment volumes de-grew 14.3% YoY to 62,630
units. Within the =< 350 cc category, volumes for the market leading
Classic 350 suffered a 22.0% YoY drop to 37,862 units, although the
Thunderbird 350 grew 34.0% YoY to 4,298 units. In the > 350 cc
category, the recently launched Twins clocked 1,445 units
Export volumes grew 48.8% YoY to 2,564 units, taking the proportion of
exports in total sales to 3.9%. On a YTD basis, exports have inched up
by 2.2% YoY
Exhibit 11: Volume performance (in units)
Source: Company, Siam
Segment Feb-19 Feb-18 %chg Jan-19 %chg YTDFY'19 YTDFY18 %chg
Motorcycles =< 350 cc 57,029 67,081 -15.0 67,915 -16.0 712,808 695,397 2.5
Motorcycles > 350 cc 5,601 5,996 -6.6 4,786 17.0 52,459 51,292 2.3
Total Sales 65,194 74,800 -12.8 74,530 -12.5 783,044 764,075 2.5
Exports(incl.above) 2,564 1,723 48.8 1,829 40.2 17,777 17,386 2.2
Exports as % of sales 3.9 2.3 163 bps 2.5 148 bps 2.3 2.3 -1 bps
Domestice sales 62,630 73,077 -14.3 72,701 -13.9 765,267 746,689 2.5
Eicher Motors: Sales volumes
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
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Inventory levels spiral, volume challenges continue!
Overall PV dispatch volumes dropped 4.1% YoY to 3.2 lakh units in February
2019. While exports declined 17.2% YoY, domestic volumes dipped 1.1%
YoY. The dealer inventory situation took a turn for the worse after correcting
slightly in January. Despite the continuance of elevated discounts offerings
by OEMs, retail demand remained subdued and inventory levels expanded
to 50-60 days of sales, as per FADA. Within PV, the passenger car segment
reported 8.4% YoY volume de-growth while the UV segment grew 3.7%
YoY and the van segment grew 12.6% YoY. Overall volumes of MSIL, the
market leader, were down 1.3% YoY at 1.46 lakh units for February 2019.
Within passenger cars, the domestic mini segment registered a drop of
33.0% YoY growth. Growth in the UV segment was led by the UV2 sub
segment which was up 25.4% YoY due to new launches Marazzo and
Harrier. Volumes for M&M’s newly launched Marazzo were at 2,881 units and
drove the company’s healthy 16.1% YoY growth. Tata Motors’ new
premium SUV Harrier logged 1,449 units while those for Toyota Kirloskar’s
Innova were up 8.3% YoY to 6,634 units. Dispatches of MSIL’s Ertiga were
up 71.7% YoY (led by new facelift), although those of Brezza were flat YoY.
In the CV space, for January, LCV segment grew 2.2% YoY while M&HCV
segment de-grew 8.6% YoY, leading to total CV sales declining 2.3% YoY.
M&HCV volumes continued to be challenged by tight liquidity conditions
and the impact of higher axle load norms. Volumes of LCVs were aided by
high private consumption-led growth and the continuously evolving hub &
spoke model, with demand for tippers particularly strong owing to ongoing
government focus on construction of infrastructure (especially road). The
MHCV/LCV volume ratio was at 40:60 in February 2019, in line with the
previous 36 month average.
Market share movement
According to Siam, domestic market shares for passenger vehicles (PV) and
commercial vehicles (CV) in February 2019 were as follows:
Exhibit 12: Domestic market share movement in passenger vehicles
Source: Siam, Data used is YTD * passenger vehicles as per Siam include Vans like Gio,
Maxximo, Eeco, Ace
MSIL continues to dominate the PV segment with
market share in excess of 50% as of February 2019
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Exhibit 13: Market share movement in A2 segment
Source: Siam, Top two PV OEMs considered
Exhibit 14: Domestic market share movement in commercial vehicles
Source: Siam data used is YTD
Exhibit 15: Segmental share in CVs
Source: Siam
The A2 (Mini & Compact) segment is the bread &
butter category of the passenger car segment. The
segment reported volume de-growth of ~8.1% YoY
in February 2019, after volumes of market leader
MSIL were down 3.9% YoY to 105,570 units in the
same segment
M&HCV volumes declined 8.6% YoY while LCV
volumes grew 2.3% YoY in February 2019. Thus,
overall CV volumes were down 2.3% YoY
On a YoY basis, among large players, Tata Motors
gained market share at the expense of Mahindra &
Mahindra. Tata Motors’ market share increased 30
bps to 44.5% while Mahindra & Mahindra’s market
share fell 90 bps to 24.7%
The MHCV/LCV ratio was at 40:60 in February 2019.
This is skewed against the M&HCV space with large
gains in the LCV segment. It is primarily depicting a
slowdown in the pace of growth in the M&HCV
segment due to liquidity crunch being faced by
NBFCs and the adverse impact of new axle load
norms
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Tata Motors (TATMOT)
Tata Motors’ overall standalone volumes declined 5.7% YoY to 60,151
units, on weak M&HCV demand and exports
Domestic M&HCV volumes de-grew 13.9% YoY to 16,306 units while
LCV volumes de-grew 4.4% YoY to 21,289 units. In the PV segment,
overall volumes of Tigor were down 56.2% YoY at 1,259 units, although
Tiago volumes grew 23.8% YoY to 8,286 units. Within its UV portfolio,
volumes of Hexa (launched in January 2017) were at 280 units (down
68.7% YoY). Tata Motors’ new premium SUV Harrier logged 1,449 units
during the month
JLR’s wholesale volumes declined 12.7% YoY to 49,695 units, with
demand slowdown in the key China market remaining a stumbling block.
Jaguar volumes de-grew 8.1% YoY to 14,926 units while Land Rover
volumes declined 14.5% YoY to 34,769 units.
Exhibit 16: Volume performance (in units)
Source: Company, Siam
Maruti Suzuki India (MARUTI)
Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) total volumes were nearly flat YoY at 1.49 lakh units
MSIL’s domestic PV volumes were down 1.1% YoY. Volumes of Alto
grew 25.3% YoY to 24,751 units while the new Wagon R clocked 15,661
units. Compact segment leader Swift reported 5.4% growth in volumes
to 18,224 units, just ahead of Baleno’s 17,944 units. Within the UV space,
dispatches of MSIL’s Ertiga and Brezza were up 71.7% YoY (led by new
facelift) and flat YoY, respectively. The company’s domestic van
portfolio grew 17.2% YoY to 14,565 units, on account of 25.8% YoY
growth in Eeco
Export volumes declined 19.6% YoY to 9,582 units
Exhibit 17: Volume performance (in units)
Source: Company, Siam
Segment Feb-19 Feb-18 %chg Jan-19 %chg YTDFY'19 YTDFY18 %chg
Domestic MHCV 16,306 18,944 -13.9 15,471 5.4 174,638 146,757 19.0
Domestic LCV 21,289 22,278 -4.4 21,618 -1.5 241,621 203,404 18.8
Domestic Pass.Car Sales 11,900 13,904 -14.4 11,007 8.1 124,108 125,168 -0.8
Domestic UV 7,726 6,118 26.3 6,819 13.3 69,741 44,138 58.0
Exports 2,930 4,768 -38.5 3,270 -10.4 47,154 45,689 3.2
Total Sales 60,151 66,012 -8.9 58,185 3.4 657,262 565,156 16.3
Jaguar 14,926 16,245 -8.1 12,904 15.7 156,465 155,198 0.8
Landrover 34,769 40,660 -14.5 28,772 20.8 338,670 402,091 -15.8
Total JLR Sales 49,695 56,905 -12.7 41,676 19.2 495,135 557,289 -11.2
Segment Feb-19 Feb-18 %chg Jan-19 %chg YTDFY'19 YTDFY18 %chg
Omni, Eeco,Versa 14,565 12,425 17.2 15,145 -3.8 162,168 141,448 14.6
Alto, Wagon-R, Zen, Swift,Ritz,
Celerio, Dzire,Baleno 97,429 99,002 (1.6) 98,931 -1.5 1,141,496 1,069,262 6.8
SX4, Swift Dzire Tour, Ciaz 3,084 4,897 -37.0 2,934 5.1 42,497 54,592 -22.2
Total Passengers 115,078 116,324 (1.1) 117,010 -1.7 1,346,161 1,265,302 6.4
Gypsy, Vitara,Ertiga,Brezza 21,834 20,324 7.4 22,430 -2.7 238,634 230,995 3.3
Total Domestic 136,912 136,648 0.2 139,440 -1.8 1,584,795 1,496,297 5.9
LCV (Super Carry) 2,188 1,252 74.8 2,710 NA 21,292 8,621 NA
Exports 9,582 11,924 (19.6) 9,571 0.1 98,286 114,058 -13.8
Total Sales 148,682 149,824 -0.8 151,721 -2.0 1,704,373 1,618,976 5.3
Exports as % of sales 6.4 8.0 6.3 5.8 7.0
Tata Motors: Domestic sales volume
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Jaguar Land Rover sales volumes
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Maruti Suzuki India: Sales volumes
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
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Ashok Leyland (ASHLEY)
Ashok Leyland’s (ALL) overall volumes were flattish YoY to 18,245 units.
While LCV segment grew 11.2% YoY to 4,954 units, the M&HCV
segment declined by 3.6% YoY to 11,536 units
ALL’s overall CV market share remained intact at 18.4% on a YTD basis.
However, its M&HCV (passenger carrier) market share has expanded 415
bps YoY to 41.7% during the same time frame. Domestic volumes of
M&HCV passenger sub segment were up 16.0% YoY at 1,504 units while
M&HCV goods volumes declined 4.0% YoY to 11,117 units. Exports
contracted 7.7% YoY to 893 units, with overall share at 4.9% of sales
The CV space has suffered from a squeeze in credit supply due to
liquidity crunch faced by NBFCs. New axle norms permit trucks to carry
10-20% more weight, leading to higher utilisation for fleet operators,
raising concerns on fresh M&HCV demand
Exhibit 18: Volume performance (in units)
Source: Company, Siam
Mahindra and Mahindra (MAHMAH)
M&M’s overall automotive volumes grew 9.5% YoY to 56,005 units.
While domestic auto volumes grew 9.2% YoY to 52,915 units, exports
volumes increased 16.4% YoY to 3,090 units. Overall UV volumes were
up 16.1% YoY at 24,349 units. The recently launched Marazzo model
helped support volumes in the face of declines in KUV100, TUV300 and
Scorpio. In YTDFY19, M&M domestic UV volume remained flat YoY vs.
~2.1% YoY growth in UV space, thus leading to contraction of market
share by 48 bps YoY to 24.7%. The newly launched XUV300 clocked
volumes of 4,484 units for the month
M&M’s tractor volumes were down 8.1% YoY to 18,978 units. Domestic
tractor volumes de-grew 6.9% YoY to 18,105 units in February while
exports de-grew 28.2% YoY in the month
Exhibit 19: Volume performance (in units)
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Segment Feb-19 Feb-18 %chg Jan-19 %chg YTDFY'19 YTDFY18 %chg
M&HCV Passenger 1,755 1,757 -0.1 1,892 -7.2 17,457 17,941 -2.7
M&HCV Goods 11,536 11,969 -3.6 12,802 -9.9 109,367 96,434 13.4
LCV 4954 4455 11.2 5047 -1.8 49,007 38,023 28.9
Total Sales 18,245 18,181 0.4 19,741 -7.6 175,831 152,398 15.4
Exports 893 968 -7.7 1,208 -26.1 11,287 15,319 -26.3
Exports as % of sales 4.9 5.3 6.1 6.4 10.1
Segment Feb-19 Feb-18 %chg Jan-19 %chg YTDFY'19 YTDFY18 %chg
UV’s 24,349 20,977 16.1 22,263 9.4 209,561 209,322 0.1
4-Wheeler pickups 19,647 19,225 2.2 21,035 -6.6 206,881 176,521 17.2
M & HCV 1,507 1,721 -12.4 1,590 -5.2 17,297 14,781 17.0
Total 4wheeler Sales 47,263 43,335 9.1 46,497 1.6 451,233 413,762 9.1
3-Wheeler 5,652 5,138 10.0 6,003 -5.8 59,756 48,023 24.4
Total Domestic Auto Sales 52,915 48,473 9.2 52,500 0.8 510,989 461,785 10.7
Exports 3,090 2,654 16.4 3,222 -4.1 34,656 24,803 39.7
Total Auto Sales 56,005 51,127 9.5 55,722 0.5 545,645 486,588 12.1
Exports as % of sales 5.5 5.2 5.8 6.4 5.1
Tractors - Domestic 18,105 19,442 -6.9 20,948 -13.6 298,296 276,057 8.1
- Exports 873 1,216 -28.2 1,264 -30.9 12,452 14,204 -12.3
Total Tractors 18,978 20,658 -8.1 22,212 -14.6 310,748 290,261 7.1
Exports as % of sales 4.6 5.9 5.7 4.0 4.9
Ashok Leyland: Total sales
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Mahindra and Mahindra: Sales volume
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Mahindra and Mahindra: Tractor sales
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
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Top domestic model wise volumes for February 2019
Exhibit 20: Top 10 passenger vehicle – Models sold in India (in units)
Source: Siam
Exhibit 21: Top 10 two-wheelers – Models sold in India (in units)
Source: Siam
S.No. Models Feb-18 Models Feb-19
1 DZIRE 20,941 Alto 24,751
2 Alto 19,760 Swift 18,224
3 Swift 17,291 Baleno 17,944
4 Baleno 15,807 DZIRE 15,915
5 Wagon R 14,029 New WagonR 15,661
6 Elite i20 13,378 VITARA BREZZA 11,613
7 VITARA BREZZA 11,620 Elite i20 11,547
8 Grand i10 10,198 Creta 10,206
9 Creta 9,278 Grand i10 9,065
10 Bolero 8,001 Tiago 8,286
S.No. Models Feb-18 Models Feb-19
1 Activa 247,377 Splendor 244,241
2 Splendor 238,722 Activa 205,239
3 HF Deluxe 165,205 HF Deluxe 184,396
4 CB Shine 82,189 CB Shine 86,355
5 TVS XL Super 71,931 Pulsar 84,151
6 Glamour 66,064 TVS XL Super 75,001
7 Jupiter 63,534 Passion 67,374
8 Passion 61,895 Platina 53,044
9 Pulsar 60,772 Jupiter 48,688
10 Classic 350 48,557 Access 48,265
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RATING RATIONALE
ICICI Direct Research endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct Research assigns ratings
to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy,
Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts'
valuation for a stock.
Sector view:
Overweight compared to index
Equal weight compared to index
Underweight compared to index
Index here refers to BSE 500
Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]
ICICI Direct Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
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ANALYST CERTIFICATION
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