1
Mikiko Kainuma (NIES, Japan), P.R. Shukla (IIM, India),
Kejun Jiang (ERI, China) and Junichi Fujino (NIES, Japan)
Scenarios for China, India, Japan and other Asian Countries
Low Carbon Asia:Low Carbon Asia:Visions and ActionsVisions and Actions
10 December 2009COP15 and CMP5 Side Event
Bella Center, Copenhagen
Funded by Ministry of Environment, Japan and NIES
GHG emission
s pe
r capita
High CarbonLocked in Society
Low Carbon Locked in Society
Development of Asia LCS Scenarios
Policy Packages for Asia LCS
Low Carbon Society
Backcasting
Leapfrog‐Development
How to reach to Low Carbon Society in Asia ?
High Carbon Locked‐in type Development
Climate catastrophe:Significant Damage to Economy and Eco‐ System
Time
(1) Depicting narrative scenarios for LCS(2) Quantifying future LCS visions(3) Developing robust roadmaps by backcasting
3
Low-Carbon Scenarios forcountries and sub-countries in Asian
http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS
Asian Modeling Meeting at Tsukuba on 17-18 September 2009
14th AIM International Workshop on 14-15 February 2009
AIM Training Workshop on 31 August - 11 September 2009
Asia Modeling Network
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Modeling Alternate Development Perspectives
Carbon Market
Technologies
Energy Resources
Universal Participation
Market Structure/ Rules
Allocation of Rights
Modify Preferences
Competition/ Trade
Energy-Mix Mandates
Tech Transfer
Cooperative R&D
Remove Market Barriers
TargetInterventionsDriversAim
Forecasting
Stabilization at Minimum GDP Loss
Global Greenhouse Gas
Concentration Stabilization
Carbon Market
Technologies
Energy Resources
Universal Participation
Market Structure/ Rules
Allocation of Rights
Modify Preferences
Competition/ Trade
Energy-Mix Mandates
Tech Transfer
Cooperative R&D
Remove Market Barriers
TargetInterventionsDriversAim
Forecasting
Stabilization at Minimum GDP Loss
Global Greenhouse Gas
Concentration Stabilization
Conventional Climate Centric Paradigm
Sustainable Development and Climate Paradigm
Low Carbon Society
Innovations
Co-benefits
Sustainability
National Socio-economic
Objectives and Targets
Global Climate Change
Objectives and Targets
TargetsInterventionsDriversAim
Back-casting
Technological
Social/Institutional
Management
Win/Win Options
Shared Costs/Risks
Aligning Markets
Modify Preferences
Avoid Lock -ins
Long -term Vision
Low Carbon Society
Innovations
Co-benefits
Sustainability
National Socio-economic
Objectives and Targets
Global Climate Change
Objectives and Targets
TargetsInterventionsDriversAim
Back-casting
Technological
Social/Institutional
Management
Win/Win Options
Shared Costs/Risks
Aligning Markets
Modify Preferences
Avoid Lock -ins
Long -term Vision
Low Carbon Society
Innovations
Co-benefits
Sustainability
National Socio-economic
Objectives and Targets
Global Climate Change
Objectives and Targets
TargetsInterventionsDriversAim
Back-casting
Technological
Social/Institutional
Management
Win/Win Options
Shared Costs/Risks
Aligning Markets
Modify Preferences
Avoid Lock -ins
Long -term Vision
Low Carbon Society
Innovations
Co -benefits
Sustainability
National Socio-economic
Objectives and Targets
Global Climate Change
Objectives and Targets
TargetsInterventionsDriversAim
Back-casting
Technological
Social/Institutional
Management
Win/Win Options
Shared Costs/Risks
Aligning Markets
Modify Preferences
Avoid Lock -ins
Long -term Vision
Low Carbon Society
Innovations
Co-benefits
Sustainability
National Socio-economic
Objectives and Targets
Global Climate Change
Objectives and Targets
TargetsInterventionsDriversAim
Back-casting
Technological
Social/Institutional
Management
Win/Win Options
Shared Costs/Risks
Aligning Markets
Modify Preferences
Avoid Lock -ins
Long -term Vision
Low Carbon Society
Innovations
Co-benefits
Sustainability
National Socio-economic
Objectives and Targets
Global Climate Change
Objectives and Targets
TargetsInterventionsDriversAim
Back-casting
Technological
Social/Institutional
Management
Win/Win Options
Shared Costs/Risks
Aligning Markets
Modify Preferences
Avoid Lock -ins
Long -term Vision
Low Carbon Society
Innovations
Co-benefits
Sustainability
National Socio-economic
Objectives and Targets
Global Climate Change
Objectives and Targets
TargetsInterventionsDriversAim
Back-casting
Technological
Social/Institutional
Management
Win/Win Options
Shared Costs/Risks
Aligning Markets
Modify Preferences
Avoid Lock -ins
Long -term Vision
Low Carbon Society
Innovations
Co -benefits
Sustainability
National Socio-economic
Objectives and Targets
Global Climate Change
Objectives and Targets
TargetsInterventionsDriversAim
Back-casting
Technological
Social/Institutional
Management
Win/Win Options
Shared Costs/Risks
Aligning Markets
Modify Preferences
Avoid Lock -ins
Long -term Vision
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Global Climate Stabilization Scenarios
Stabilization Scenarios with Global Targets
Baseline Paradigm
StabilizationTargets
Scenarios
Geography Level
2.66.0 5.0 Radiative Forcing Target W/m2
Global Regional National
4.5 2.66.0 5.0 4.5
Global Global Regional NationalGlobalLocal Local
Conventional Sustainability
Δt 4 to 6OC Δt 3 to 5OC
Δt 3OC
Δt 2OC
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
National Analysis: MARKAL & End-Use Models
From 2005-2050:Annual Economic Growth: 7.2%Annual Population Growth: 0.9%
Absolute Growth in 2050 over 2005Economy 23 timesPopulation 1.56 times
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Mto
e
Other RenewablesNuclearHydroGasOilCoalCommercial BiomassNon Com Biomass
Energy
Base Scenario: Growth of Economy and Population
Carbon Emissions
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Mill
ion
Ton
CO
2
Global Stabilization Target: 2OC
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Mitigation Technology OptionsConventional Approach: transition with conventional path and carbon price
• High Carbon Price• Climate Focused Technology Push• Top-down/Supply-side actions
Sustainability Approach: aligning climate and sustainable development actions
• Low Carbon Price• Bottom-up/Demand-side actions• Behavioural change• Diverse Technology portfolio
Technology Co-operation Areas• Energy Efficiency• Wind/Solar/Biomass/Small Hydro• Nuclear/CCS
Technology Co-operation Areas• Transport Infrastructure Technologies• 3R, Material Substitutes, Renewable Energy• Process Technologies• Urban Planning, Behavioral Changes
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mill
ion
Ton
CO
2
Other
CCS
Device EfficiencyNuclear
Renewable
Fossil Switch
Emissions (for 2O Target)
Baseline Emissions
Carbon Price ($) 20 87 136 20052
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mill
ion
Ton
CO
2
CCSTransport Reduced ConsumptionRecyclingMaterial SubstitutionsDevice Efficiency
Renewable Energy
Building
Fossil Switch
Emissions (for 2O Target)
Carbon Price ($) 15 55 100 11728
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
AMC (Old
boundary)
AMC (New
boundary)
Low Carbon Scenario: AhmedabadAhmedabad (2009) Pop 5.5 Mil
Passenger Transport Sector
024
68
10
121416
Inde
x 20
05 =
1
Passenger Demand
Energy Demand
GHG Emissions
2005 2035 BAU 2035 SS
Industry Sector
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Inde
x 20
05 =
1
Output (Bn INR) Energy Demand GHG Emissions
2005 2035 BAU 2035 SS
10.2
61.1
20.4
8.6
15.4
6.32.44.33.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2035 BaU 2035 LCS
GH
G E
mis
sion
s/re
duct
ions
(mt-
C02
)
Transport EfficiencyIndustry EfficiencyBuilding EfficiencyFuel Switch
Energy Service demand
Coal + CCS
Emissions
Mitigation Contributions
67%
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
2OC Sustainibility Scenario
Base Scenario0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Pric
e (U
S $/
tCO
2)
2OC Conventional Mitigation Scenario
Carbon Price
Primary Energy and Carbon Price
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Renewable
Prim
ary
Ene
rgy
Dem
and
(Mto
e)
Base
LCS_CT
LCS_SS
Total Energy Demand
(Mtoe )
Base 2825
LCS_CT 2945 LCS_SS 2207
Energy Mix in 2050
Technology learning curve
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2005 2020 2030 2050Year
Inde
x, 2
005=
1
HydrateBiomass-EthanolIGCCIGCC-Fuel CellHydrogen VehiclePoly-GenerationSolar Thermal PowerPV4th Generation NuclearOff Shore WindOn Shore WindBiomass PowerAdvanced NGCC
28 key technologies in the enhanced low carbon scenario in China
No. Sector Technology Description Note1 High energy
efficiencyequipment
High efficiency furnace,kiln, waste heat recoverysystem, high efficiencyprocess technologies,advanced electric motor
Nearly inmarket
2 New manufactureprocess technologyfor cement and steel
3 CCS In cement, steel making,refinery, ethylenemanufacture
4 Super high efficiencydiesel vehicle
Advanced diesel hybridengine
5 Electric car6 Fuel cell car7 High efficiency
aircraft30% higher energyefficiency
8 Bio‐fuel aircraft9 Super high efficiency
air‐conditionerWith COP>7
10 LED lighting11 In house renewable
energy systemSolar PV/Wind/Solar hotwater and space heating
12 Heat pumps Mature13 High isolation
buildingMature
14 High efficiencyelectric appliance
Maturebefore 2030
15 IGCC/Poly‐Generation
With efficiency above 55%
16 IGCC/Fuel cell With efficiency above 60%17 On shore Wind Mature18 Off shore wind Mature
before 202019 Solar PV20 Solar Thermal21 4th Generation
Nuclear22 Advanced NGCC With efficiency above 65%23 Biomass IGCC24 CCS in power
generation25 Second generation
bio‐ethanol26 Bio‐diesel Vehicles, ships, vessels27 Grid Smart grid28 Circulating
tecnologiesRecycle, reuse,reducing materialuse
Alternative fuels
Powergeneration
Building
Transport
Industrytechnology
Technology Roadmap
Ultra performance air-conditioning
Popularization Rate: 100%
Advanced Solar Water heater/ heating
Popularization Rate: 45%, of all the suitable construction
Investment Demand of Energy Industry
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030
Year
A hundred million
Base scenario
Policy scenario
15
Technology roadmap and perspective
• Technology in sight could lead us to low carbon future(2℃ target )
• If there is new technology coming out, there will be more promising future, such as bio-technologies, geothermal technologies, and space technologies etc.
Seconday Energy Consumption (Mtoe)
Industrial ResidentialCommercial
Trans. Prv.Trans. Frg.
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
2000(Actual)
2050(Scenario A)
2050(Scenario B)
Industrial Residential Commercial Trans. Prv. Trans. Frg.
Decrease ofenergy demand
Trans. Prv.: Transportation (Private), Trans. Frg.: Transportation (Freight)
40% demand reductions
Coal Oil Gas
Biomass
Nuclear
Solar and Wind
100 200 300 400 500 600
2000(Actural)
2050(Scenario A)
2050(Scenario B)
Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe)
Coal Oil Gas Biomass Nuclear Hydro Solar and Wind
low-carbon energy
70% CO2 cutby 2050
JapanJapan
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CO2em
ission
s [M
tC]
-70% to 1990
1. Comfortable and Green Built Environment
2. Anytime, Anywhere Appropriate Appliances
3. Promoting Seasonal Local Food
4. Sustainable Building Materials5. Environmentally Enlightened
Business and Industry6. Swift and Smooth Logistics7. Pedestrian Friendly City
Design8. Low-Carbon Electricity9. Local Renewable Resources
for Local Demand10. Next Generation Fuels11. Labeling to Encourage Smart
and Rational Choices12. Low-Carbon Society
Leadership
A Dozen Actions
Residential/commercial
Industrial
Transportation
Energysupply
Cross-sector
A dozen actions make it possibleto reduce 70% CO2 emissions by 2050
Japan
JapanJapan
18
‐8
‐6
‐4
‐2
0
2
4
6
8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Add
itiona
l investm
ent [Tril. JP
Y]
Ene: Fuel savingEne: Additional fixed investmentTrp: Fuel savingTrp: Additional fixed investmentInd: Fuel savingInd: Additional fixed investmentRes: Fuel savingRes: Additional fixed investmentTotal
Scenario AEarly Investmentcan reduce cost and enhance energy efficiencyof countermeasures
and gain multi-benefits e.g. energy securitybusiness powercomfortable live spacewalkable city, happy life!
Backcasting model can show optimized pathways towards LCS
JapanJapan
Asian LCS Study (2009) 19
Environmental targets for 2030Reduction of GHG emissions by halfReduction of pollutant load flows into the lake by half for the conservation of water qualityReduction of landfill waste by 75%
Shiga prefecture shows visions and roadmaps for 50% CO2 reductions by 2030
ShigaShiga
Japan LCS research project and Japanese CC policy
1. Feb 13th 2007, Interim Report “Japan Scenarios torwards Low-Carbon Society (LCS) -Feasibility study for 70% CO2 emission reduction by 2050 below 1990 level-”May 24th 2007 Former Prime Minister Abe launched “Cool Earth 50”to reduce 50% GHG emissions by 2050June 9th 2008 Former Prime Minister Fukuda set the target of Japanese CO2 emissions reduction by 60-80% in 2050
2. May 22nd 2008, Interim Report “Dozen Actions towards LCSs”July 29th 2008 Japanese government set “Action Plan for Achieving a Low-carbon Society”
3. April 2009, The Mid-term Target Committee, “six options for 2020”(including 7%, 15%, 25% reduction compared as 1990 level)September 22nd 2009, New Prime Minister Hatoyama set the year of 2020 target as 25%.
JapanJapan
New Japan’s Mid-term Target
Japan’s mid-term target was announced by New Prime Minister Hatoyama on September 22nd, 2009. The target is
25 percent reduction from the 1990 level by 2020
*Japan’s Kyoto target (6% reduction) includes carbon sinks and credits through the Kyoto mechanisms.
New Prime MinisterHatoyama 鳩山由紀夫
New Mid-term target
Old Mid-term target Kyoto target
Target Year 2020 2020 2008 - 2012
Base Year 1990 2005(1990) 1990
Domestic reductionTotally
25%
15(8)% 0.6%
Carbon sinks - 3.8%
Credits - 1.6%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CO2em
ission
s [M
tC]
2050, 80% in 2050
Japanese Emissions Targets towards 2050
Jump
Step25% in 2020(incl. credit?)
Hop Kyoto Protocolduring 2008-2012 (Sink 3.8%, credit 1.6 %)
Japan
JapanJapan
Japanese Lessons
Low-CarbonAsia
NIES
Low-Carbon Asia: Scenarios and Insights
Japan, India, Ahmedabad, Jilin, Iskandar, Shiga, Kyoto
AIM, IIM, ERI, UTM, LBERI, MHIR, KU, NIES
http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/
Supplement
25
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mt‐C
CO2 Emission in China
Baseline
Policy
ELC
27
Power Capacity by technologies in China, low energy scenario
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year
10M
WHydroNuclearWind off shoreWind on shoreBiomass IGCCBiomass DirectSolar ThermalSolar PVOilNGCCN.GasPFBCIGCC-Fuel CellIGCC-68%IGCC-20%US-CriticalSuper CriticalLarge Coal UnitSamll Coal