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Looking Around the Competitive Corner
7Trends We Should See Coming
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How is the Economy?
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U.S. Chamber Small Business Survey
84%
8%8%
54%
27%19%
61%
25%
14%
Headed in Right DirectionOff on Wrong DirectionNot Sure
The U.S. Economy
The Local Economy
Your Business
Source: U.S. Chamber Small Business Survey, July 2011
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“American culture is the manic combination of exultant hubris and
profound gloom”George Friedman
The Next 100 Years
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“Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
John F. Kennedy
Quotation
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The Last Decade Was….Not Good
27%
22%20%
-1%-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010
Employment Growth
Source: Peter Linneman, NAI Global
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The Last Decade Was….Not Good
34%
40% 40%
17%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%
1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010
Real GDP Growth
Source: Peter Linneman, NAI Global
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The Last Decade Was….Not Good
27%
47%61%
-3%
-20%-10%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%
1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010
Real Household Wealth
Source: Peter Linneman, NAI Global
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And then The Recession Made Things Worse
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Recession & Weak Recovery Impacts
Soaring poverty rates (15.1% most since 1993)Black poverty rate 27%Male workers, median income falls to 1973 level6% decline in births between 2008-2010Most educated metros widened gapGovernment budget cuts reshaping competitiveness Corporate profits largest share of GDP since 1950
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With Full Credit to TIP StrategiesA Picture is Worth a Thousand words
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What Is the New Normal?“The future is not some place we are going
to, but one we are creating.”John Schaar
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8 Ounces
6 Ounces
4 Ounces
2 Ounces
0 Ounces
Today Is the Economic Glass ½ Full or ½ Empty ?
“Get your facts first then you can distort them as
much as you like.”
Mark Twain
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“4 Ounces”
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Globally
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Unemployment Rates
9.1%
4.3%
6.1%7.3%
10.0%
5.3%
10.8%
6.0% 6.1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
US Japan China Canada Euro Area Austrialia India Brazil Russia
Source: Economist Oct 8, 2011
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Projected GDP Growth 2011
1.6%
-0.4%
9.0%
2.2% 1.6% 2.1%
7.9%
3.6% 4.3%
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
US Japan China Canada Euro Area Austrialia India Brazil Russia
Source: Economist Oct 8, 2011
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Trade balance as % of GDP
-3.3%
2.3%
4.0%
-2.7%
-0.5%
-2.3%-3.2%
-2.5%
4.9%
-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%
US Japan China Canada Euro Area Austrialia India Brazil Russia
Source: Economist Oct 2011
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U.S. Exports & Imports (Goods)
$0$500,000
$1,000,000$1,500,000$2,000,000$2,500,000$3,000,000$3,500,000$4,000,000$4,500,000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009 2010
Exports Imports
In $Millions
Source: Census, World Almanac 2009 & U.S. BEA 2010
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U.S. Exports 2009-2011
$-$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000
$100,000$120,000$140,000$160,000$180,000
2009-Jan
2009-May
2009-Sept
2010-Jan
2010-May
2010-Sept
2011-Jan
2011-May
Exports
42% Increase
Source: BLS Sept 2011
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Less than 1% of U.S. firms export and of those that
do more than ½ export to only one country
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Nationally
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Employment Monthly Net Change 2000- Sept 2011
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
2000 2008
Jobs
Source: BLS Oct 2011
125,000 Jobs/Mo. To keep pace with growthIn thousands
The best year in the last decade averaged 208,000 additional jobs per month…12 years
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How Many New Jobs in the Last Year? September 2010 to August 2011
1,288,000 or 1% job growth in private sectorSectors gaining jobs; Manufacturing(+2%),Prof/Bus Services(+3%), Education & Health(+2%)-312,000 government jobs (-1.5% of Government jobs)
Source: BLS September 2011
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Job Growth- Last 12 Months44 of 50 states had job growthBiggest growth- Texas +269,000, California +189,600, New York +106,600, Ohio +74,1006 States that lost jobs Indiana, Georgia, Alabama, Kansas, Delaware, Nevada
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Employment Changes in the South July 2010- July 2011
-4.7
8.328.1
-24.9
27.9 26.33.6 5.5 1.6 4.4
34.017.3 12.8
269.5
8.3 1.5
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
Source: bizjournals.com Aug 2011
In thousands
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% Employment Changes in the South July 2010- July 2011
-0.3%
0.7%0.4%
-0.6%
1.6%1.4%
0.1% 0.2% 0.1%0.1%
2.2%
1.0%
0.5%
2.6%
0.2% 0.2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
Source: bizjournals.com Aug 2011
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Personal Saving as a % of Disposable Personal Income
5.2% 5.2% 5.0% 4.9% 5.1% 5.2% 5.5%5.0%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Dec-10 Jan Feb March April May June July
Source: BLS Personal Income and Outlays, August 2011
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Estimates of Monthly Retail and Food Services
$-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
Jan. 2000Sep. 2000M
ay-01Jan. 2002Sep. 2002M
ay-03Jan. 2004Sep. 2004M
ay-05Jan. 2006Sep. 2006M
ay-07Jan. 2008Sep. 2008M
ay-09Jan. 2010Sep. 2010M
ay-11
In million $$
Source: Economics and Statistics Administration Sept 2011
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US Firms in Forbes Global 2000
751
536
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2004 2011
Source: Forbes May 9, 2011
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US Firms in Forbes Global 2000 Growth in 2010
69%
12% 18%2%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Profits Sales Value Employees
Source: Forbes May 9, 2011
Overall, last year was one of the most profitable years for U.S. businesses in history
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Stock Market
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Source: Daily Yonder; Rural Employment Stagnates in July-Sept 2011
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Gender Job Impacts
-5,400,000
768,000
-2,100,000
-218,000
-7,000,000-6,000,000-5,000,000-4,000,000-3,000,000-2,000,000-1,000,000
01,000,0002,000,000
Men Women
Recession Dec 2007- June 2009 Recovery June 2009 - May 2011
Source: Pew Research Center July 6, 2011
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(NATIONAL)
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Incomes Are An Issue…
-7.9%
-14.0%
-6.8%
-20%-18%-16%-14%-12%-10%
-8%-6%-4%-2%0%
Lessthan HS
AssocDegree
BA
Adjusted for inflation median HH income has fallen 10% since December 2007 (6.7% since recovery started)College educated men 25-34 incomes have fallen 19% since 2000College educated women 25-34 incomes have dropped 16% since 2003
Source: Tim Mullaney, USA Today Oct 20, 2011
Over the past 4 years incomes…
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How We Spend Money…22%
7%10%
3%
13%
18%
3%
16%
3%
8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Food Clothing Housing Health CareFinance/Insur
1950 1970 1990 2010
Source: Time, The Great American Divide Oct 10, 2011
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Housing
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Regionally
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Brookings Metro Monitor
2nd Quarter 2011
Recession and Recovery
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% GDP Changes in the South 2009-2010
2.0%2.3%
1.4%1.4%
3.2%
2.6%2.9%
1.4%1.1%
3.4%
1.0%
2.6%
3.5%
2.8%2.6%
4.0%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
Source: BEA Economic Recovery Widespread Across States in 2010, June 7, 2011
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So What Next?Total Economy- Today the reality economy Minus increased savingsMinus increased debtMinus bubbles in housing wealth and stock market wealthWith slowing growth in new income and new peopleEquals slow growth and new realities
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So What Next?Global slowdown will push a weak recover to the edgeIn a national political year businesses usually hold their cardsHousing is close to bottom but “underwater” losses will drag it for several more years…probably slightly increasing sales but values will continue to slideJob growth will be slow…for a while Very Uneven- Regions that succeed will focus on strengths, be globally aware and engaged, and will understand the role of talent
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A Few (7) Things To Think About
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UrbanizationWe Are Becoming A World Where
People Live in Urban Regions
1
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% of Global Population Living in Cities
3%13%
30%
50%
70%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
1800 1900 1950 2000 2025
% Urban
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U.S. Population Concentration Metro-Non-Metro
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Metro Non-Metro
Source: Census
80%Almost 60% of US population lives in Cities of 1 million or more
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GlobalizationMarco Polo
East India Trading CompanySilk Road or Amber Road
Columbus
2
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How Does the United States Rank? Top 10 GDPs
$0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
$12,000,000
$14,000,000
$16,000,000
US
China
Japan
Germ
any
France
UK
Brazil
Italy
Spain
Canada
In $millions
Source: International Monetary Fund for 2010
The U.S. is 23% of the global GDP Brazil, India, China (Total = 15%)
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Global Labor Force-Top 1021%
17%
5% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
China India UnitedStates
Indonesia Brazil Russia Japan Nigeria Banglad Germany
Labor Force
Source: IBM Research, 2006
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Labor Productivity as % of U.S.
26%
100%
80%75%
21%15%
70%75%
8%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
World USA UK Germany Brazil China Japan Singapore India
Source: The Conference Board 2010 Productivity Brief
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Export Customers of the Future91%
85% 80%
15%9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
U.S. Japan U.K. China India
% Middle Class
Source: Adler-Miller-McCune 2008
By 2020 80% of the middle income consumers in the world will live outside the “developed” countries
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Not So Long Ago…In a Free Market Far, Far, Away
1978 Deng Xiaoping adopts free-market approach1989 fall of Soviet Union1991 Market reforms in India
4.7 3.1
365
92
050
100150200250300350400
1986 Today
Imports Exports
US Trade With ChinaIn $billions
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Trade and China Moving Forward
41%
47%
12%
Good Thing Bad ThingDon't Know
40%
7%
53%
Get TougherStronger RelationshipDon't Know
Trade Agreements US Relationship With China
Source: Pew Research Center, Oct 7,2011
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Increasing Competition
3
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We Are Competing For Economic Success
1) Do you believe that there is greater competition than ever for new jobs and new investment?
2) Do you believe that the competition is global?
3) Do you believe that there will be locations that win the competition and locations that lose?
4) Do you believe that communities can take actions to improve their chances of success?
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Site Selection Factors % of Site Selectors Rating as Very Important
1. Highway Accessibility 97%2. Labor Cost 91%3. Tax Exemptions 91% 4. Occupancy Costs 90%5. State/Local Incentives 89%6. Corporate Tax Rate 86%7. Avail. Skilled Labor 86%8. Shipping Costs 84%9. Energy Avail./Cost 82%10. Availability of Buildings 81%
Source: Area Development 2010 Survey
Cost
Labor
Markets
Infrastructure
Regulation
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Site Selection Factors % of QOL Factors Rating as Very Important
1. Low Crime Rate 85%2. Healthcare Facilities 72%3. Housing Costs 68% 4. Housing Availability 66%5. Ratings of Public Schools 61%
Source: Area Development 2011 Survey
Safety HealthCare
Housing Education
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CEOs Best & Worst States For Business 2011
Best1. Texas2. North Carolina3. Florida4. Tennessee5. Georgia 6. Indiana7. Virginia8. South Carolina9. Utah10. Nevada
Worst50. California49. New York48. Illinois47. New Jersey46. Michigan45. Massachusetts44. Connecticut43. Hawaii42. West Virginia41. Ohio
Source: Chief Executive Magazine Survey of 550 CEOs
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Forbes Best States For BusinessVirginia #1North Carolina #5Georgia #6Texas #8Florida #18Oklahoma #20Tennessee #23South Carolina #25
Arkansas #26Alabama #28Missouri #29Mississippi #40Kentucky #43Louisiana #44West Virginia #46
Source: Forbes September 2009
Based on Business costs, labor, regulation, economic climate, growth, QOL
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Business Facilities State Rankings
Economic Growth Potential1. South Carolina2. Tennessee3. Virginia4. North Carolina5. Texas6. Arizona7. Utah8. New Mexico9. Kentucky10. Kansas
Best Business Climate1. Texas2. Virginia3. Utah4. South Carolina5. Tennessee6. North Carolina7. Florida8. Louisiana9. South Dakota10. Wyoming
Source: Business Facilities Magazine July/Aug 2010
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Small Business Ranking Best Places 2011
1. Austin2. Oklahoma City3. Charleston SC4. Charlotte5. Seattle6. Tulsa7. Raleigh8. Denver9. Washington 10. New York
Source: Business Journals April 2011
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2010 INC 500 Companies In the South
4 1
29
104 2 2 3
16
9
16
49 47
105
101520253035404550
Alabama
Arkansas
FloridaGeorgia
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Missouri
North Carolina
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Tennessee
TexasVirginia
West Virginia
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The Future of U.S.
Manufacturing
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US Industry Shifts Over the Past 50 Years (Manufacturing)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
Manufcturing
Source: BLS April, 2011
In thousands
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Manufacturing Workforce of the Future
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The World Has Changed…Has the U.S. Role?
4
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America’s Self-Image & Global Image Is Changing
Tallest building…DubaiRichest Man…MexicoLargest Publicly Traded Company…ChinaProducer of the Most Movies….IndiaBiggest Gambling Town…MacaoLargest Ferris Wheel…SingaporeOnly 1 of 10 Largest Shopping Malls
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The Rise of the Rest Who and How We Compete
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The Talent Imperative
“97% of CEOs surveyed say having the right talent is the most critical factor for their
business growth”
4
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Annual % Workforce Growth in The USA
1.1%
1.7%
2.6%
1.6%
1.1%1.1%
0.4% 0.3%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s
% Growth/Yr
Source: Rand-The Future of Work
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I Hate This Bar
If We Don’t Start Expecting More We Need To Start Expecting Less
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Educational Requirements For U.S. Jobs 1973-2018
32%10% 11% 10%
40%
34% 30% 28%
19% 17% 17%
12%19% 21% 23%
9% 19% 21% 23%7% 10% 11% 10%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1973 1992 2007 2018
HS Dropouts HS Grads Some CollegeAssoc. Degree BA Grad Degree
Source: Center on Education and the Workforce, Dec 2009
28%73%
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Unemployment Rate By Education
14.0%
9.7%8.4%
4.2%
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%
Less thanHigh School
HS No College Some College B.A. Plus
10
34 3445
05
1015202530354045
LessthanHigh
School
HS NoCollege
SomeCollege
B.A.Plus
Total Emplyed
In millions
Source: BLS Sept 2011
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Average Annual US College Costs
$6,725$8,483
$10,647
$16,140$14,746
$22,530
$28,059
$36,993
$-$5,000
$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000$30,000$35,000$40,000
Public Private
1980-81 1990-91 2000-01 2010-11
Inflation adjusted Private +151%, Public 140%
Source: Tim Mullaney, USA Today Oct 20, 2011
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Creative Work
Routine Work
Outsourced
RoutineWork
Machines
Routine Work
Source: National Center on Education and the Economy, Tough Choices or Tough Times, 2007
Work Shifts
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Middle-SkillsRequire more than a high school degree but less than a BA degree52% of employers said in 2011 manpower survey that they were struggling to fill positions, an all-time high
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Southern Jobs By Skill Level 2009
Middle Skill51%
High Skill29%
Low Skill20%
High Skill Low Skill Middle Skill
Source: Middle skill jobs in the American South’s Economy, National Skills Coalition, August 2011
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Southern Skills Mismatch
32%
43%
25%
29%
51%
20%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
High Skills
Middle Skills
Low-Skill
JobsWorkers
Source: Middle skill jobs in the American South’s Economy, National Skills Coalition, August 2011
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Acceleration Speed of Change
5
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40 Years Ago Alvin Toffler Had a Few Thoughts
“Is the dizzying disorientation brought on by the premature arrival of the future, a product of the greatly accelerated rate of change in society.”
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40 Years Ago Toffler Had a Few Thoughts
Durational expectancyTransienceNovelty
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Technology Changes Work and Creation of Wealth
Agriculture Fields
Industry Factories
Information Offices
Virtual Internet
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The Churn in the Economy
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Business Employment Net Private Job Gains and Losses By Quarter
-3,000-2,500-2,000-1,500-1,000
-5000
5001,000
2000-12000-32001-12001-32002-12002-32003-12003-32004-12004-32005-12005-32006-12006-32007-12007-32008-12008-32009-12009-32010-12010-3
Source: BLS Business Employment Dynamics, August 2011
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Business Employment Dynamics (Churn)
Net Private Job Gains and Losses
-10,000-8,000-6,000-4,000-2,000
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,000
2000-12000-3
2001-12001-3
2002-12002-3
2003-1
2003-32004-1
2004-32005-1
2005-32006-1
2006-32007-1
2007-32008-1
2008-32009-1
2009-3
2010-12010-3
Source: BLS Business Employment Dynamics, August 2011
In millions
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Businesses Opening and Closing
644,122
-604,201
670,058
-619,695
668,395
-620,732
626,400
-707,446
552,600
-721,737-1,000,000
-800,000-600,000-400,000-200,000
0200,000400,000600,000800,000
1,000,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Births Closures/Bankruptcies
Source: US Small Business Administration Aug 2011
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Mass Customization
If everything is customized will our entire industrial model of both work and
education be a passing era?
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Radical Decentralization
Where do you get medical care?How do you watch a movie?
How do you gather information or get educated?
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Separation ,Polarization… but too little
Collaboration“The act of joining together to
make possible that which cannot be accomplished alone.”
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If I asked you to Stand up, shake hands with the person
next to you…but if I asked you to give them $1,000 or the keys to your house…
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Social Capital“Consists of the stock of active connections among people; the trust, mutual understanding, and shared values and behaviors that bind the members of human networks and communities and make cooperative action possible.”
Cohen & Prusak 2001
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Why are some regions more successful than others in global competition?
“Regardless of whether a region can bring the right people to the table or develop a strategic plan, the true test is whether the region can act effectively.”
Source: Council on Competitiveness, Collaboration 2010
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What is a Commitment to Collaboration?
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The Decline of the Elites
6
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Banks/Financial
Major Companies
LaborPrint Media
Broadcast Media
ScientistOrganized Religion
Public Schools
Fed GovState Gov
Local Gov
Extremely & Very Not Too or Not
Confidence in Institutional Leadership
Source: AP National Constitution Center Poll August 2010
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Why Do We Want and Need Leadership?We want someone, we trust, to make sense of all the information we are receiving.We want someone to take actions that improves our situations or solves our problems
TraditionalHierarchicalLeadership
GrassrootsBottom UpLeadership
Action, Success, Problem Solving
Someone important or
some small groupwith a vision or resources
Someone not important
or some small group with a
vision or resources
Leadership Is Crucial & Models Are Changing
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Public
Non
profit
Private
Catalyst
Solution To a Specific Problem
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Regional Leadership
“The key to creating collaboration is effective regional leadership”
“Regional leadership bodies depend on consensus, not hierarchy.”
“The structures are more frequently networked than formalized”
Source: Council on Competitiveness, Collaboration 2010
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Complexity & Choice Conundrum
7
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US Shared & Unshared Values
Personal control vs. fateChange vs. traditionIndividualism vs. groupFuture vs. past
So think about the big issues that are dividing us, the role of government, energy, education,
environment, health care, capital punishment…
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U.S. Energy Public Policy
Strong Economy
Environmental Stewardship
Independence & Security
Personal Freedom &
Quality of Life
AdequateEnergy Supply
Global competition
Saving old jobs
Creating green jobs
Lowest cost delivery
Mobility
Air Conditioning
Electronics
Housing Options
Air & Water Pollution
Global Warming
Nuclear Storage
Land Preservation
Unintended consequences
Diplomacy
Conflict
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U.S. Health Care Public Policy
Affordable
Universal
ContinuouslyImproving
Personal Freedom
Health Care
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“Choice- It Is About Choice”The Matrix Paradox We want and need to know more and more, but it is so hard. We want an easier way.
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Setting National Priorities The Next Ten Years
War or Peace “the greatest risk-the Middle East”Nuclear ProliferationThe U.S. in the World EconomyFederal Spending & DebtEnergy and the EnvironmentCongress and the President
Source: Setting National Priorities, The Brookings Institution, 1976
The Country’s economic miracle exists because its leaders, unlike those in other countries, can make quick decisions and ensure underlings carry them out.
China’s People’s Daily
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The Road to Recovery is Named Main Street
The 2010 Report on the Future of the Southwww.southern.org
“Listening to the South”
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Despite Our Current Gloom, the United States Will Be One of the Major Global Powers for a Long
Time
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Good News…EconomyThe upward mobility of the typical American is still the greatest in the worldThe average U.S. worker is 10-12 times as productive as an average worker in China60 of the world’s top 100 universities are U.S.
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Good News…EnvironmentGDP has climbed 210% since 1970 while aggregate emission of the six principal air pollutants has dropped by 60%In 2010 30% of trash was recycled (16% in 1990)For every dollar of U.S. output today we burn ½ the oil as 30 years ago
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Good News…CrimeViolent crime dropped 12% last yearJuvenile offenders declined 26% between 2000 and 2008
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Good News…HealthIn the 1960s 5-year survival rate for cancer was 1 in 3, Today 2 in 3Average life expectancy is now 78.2 years, (68 in 1950, 47 in 1900)Last year U.S. workplace fatalities were the lowest on record
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Good News…The divorce rates dropped by 1/3 between 1981 and 2008 to the lowest level since 1970Teen birth rates in 2009 fell to the lowest level in 70 yearsTraffic deaths/100,000 in 2009, lowest on recordAlcohol traffic deaths are ½ what they were 20 years ago
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“Whether you believe you can do a thing or not, you are right.”
Henry Ford
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Southern Growth Policies Board
Since 1971,Bringing Together Governors, State Legislative Leaders Business Leaders, Higher Education Leaders, and CitizensHelp communities understand the changing context of competitivenessFollow us on Twitter or LinkedIn or join as an associate member
www.southern.orgPublic policy is about making choices, Southern Growth informs choice