![Page 1: Long-Term River Basin Planning: GA-LP Approach Daene McKinney Center for Research in Water Resources University of Texas at Austin Ximing Cai International](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfa81a28abf838c9924f/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Long-Term River Basin Planning:
GA-LP Approach Daene McKinney
Center for Research in Water Resources
University of Texas at Austin
Ximing CaiInternational Food Policy Research Institute
Leon LasdonDepartment of Management Science
University of Texas at Austin
![Page 2: Long-Term River Basin Planning: GA-LP Approach Daene McKinney Center for Research in Water Resources University of Texas at Austin Ximing Cai International](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfa81a28abf838c9924f/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Outline
• Sustainability in River Basin Planning
• Modeling Framework
• Solution Approach (GA-LP)
• Application
• Conclusions & Next steps
![Page 3: Long-Term River Basin Planning: GA-LP Approach Daene McKinney Center for Research in Water Resources University of Texas at Austin Ximing Cai International](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfa81a28abf838c9924f/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Sustainability in River Basin Planning
• Concepts of sustainable development – Demand management, supply reliability
and flexibility, environmental impact control, technology adaptation, economic efficiency, etc
• Broad guidelines – Provide guidance to planners, but– Not translated into operational concepts
that can be applied to specific systems
![Page 4: Long-Term River Basin Planning: GA-LP Approach Daene McKinney Center for Research in Water Resources University of Texas at Austin Ximing Cai International](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfa81a28abf838c9924f/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Modeling Framework
• Incorporate quantified sustainability criteria into long-term water resource systems models– Relations between water uses and their
long-term consequences – Tradeoffs in benefits received over many
generations
![Page 5: Long-Term River Basin Planning: GA-LP Approach Daene McKinney Center for Research in Water Resources University of Texas at Austin Ximing Cai International](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfa81a28abf838c9924f/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Application
• Water resources management in river basins with (semi) arid climate– Large diversions to irrigated agriculture– Potential for environmental degradation from water
and soil salinity
• Sustainability (one might define it as)– Ensuring long-term, stable and flexible water
supply capacity – Meeting irrigation and growing M&I demands, – Mitigating negative environmental consequences
![Page 6: Long-Term River Basin Planning: GA-LP Approach Daene McKinney Center for Research in Water Resources University of Texas at Austin Ximing Cai International](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfa81a28abf838c9924f/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Modeling Framework• Basic Premise
– Short-term decisions should be controlled by long-term sustainability criteria
• Long-term (Multi-year) Control– Inter-Year Control Program (IYCP) – Long-term model controlling short-term decisions
to approach sustainability
• Short-term (Annual) Control– Sequencing of Yearly Models (YMs) – Short-term models optimizing benefits for a year
![Page 7: Long-Term River Basin Planning: GA-LP Approach Daene McKinney Center for Research in Water Resources University of Texas at Austin Ximing Cai International](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfa81a28abf838c9924f/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Modeling FrameworkInter-Year Control Program (IYCP)
Inter-Year Control Variables (IYCV)
ws End of year water storageA Available area of a crop1 Water distribution efficiency 2 Water application efficiency 3 Water drainage efficiencytax Salt discharge tax rate
Yearly models
YM 1 YM 2 YM Y
Sustainability Criteria
RELi Reliability criterion, i = a or eREVi Reversibility criterion, i = a or eVULi Vulnerability criterion, i = a or e ENV Environment criterion SEQ Spatial equity criterionTEQ Temporal equity criterionEA Economic acceptability criterionEach is
NLP or LP
Solve by GA
![Page 8: Long-Term River Basin Planning: GA-LP Approach Daene McKinney Center for Research in Water Resources University of Texas at Austin Ximing Cai International](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfa81a28abf838c9924f/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Demand site (d)Area (a)Field (f)
WAF2
G
Q1
DP
ETA
DD
Groundwater
Crop (c)
WA
R
ER
RF P
Yearly Model
ObjectiveIrrigation benefitHydropower benefitEnvironmental benefit
ConstraintsFlow balancesSalinity balancesPolicy constraints
![Page 9: Long-Term River Basin Planning: GA-LP Approach Daene McKinney Center for Research in Water Resources University of Texas at Austin Ximing Cai International](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfa81a28abf838c9924f/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Solving the Yearly Model
IYCP
IYCP
IYCV(y) IYCV(y+1)
solution foryear y
solution foryear y+1
Stored water
Water salinity, Soil salinity,
Salt discharge
Flows
YM(y) YM(y+1)
FM(y) FM(y+1)
SM(y) SM(y+1)Water salinity,
Soil salinity, Salt discharge
Soil salinity, Salt discharge
Stored water
YM FM + SMDecomposeLinearizeLPs for each year
![Page 10: Long-Term River Basin Planning: GA-LP Approach Daene McKinney Center for Research in Water Resources University of Texas at Austin Ximing Cai International](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfa81a28abf838c9924f/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
IYCP Objective Function • Weighted sum of sustainability criteria:
– Risk criteria (expressed in terms of agricultural and ecological water use)
• Reliability (frequency of system failure)
• Reversibility (time to return from system failure) • Vulnerability (severity of system failure)
– Environmental criteria • Max allowable water and soil salinities
– Equity criteria • Temporal (equitable access to benefits over time)
• Spatial (equitable geographic access to water)
– Economic acceptability criteria (impact of investment benefits)
![Page 11: Long-Term River Basin Planning: GA-LP Approach Daene McKinney Center for Research in Water Resources University of Texas at Austin Ximing Cai International](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfa81a28abf838c9924f/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Yeary=1,…,Y
Performance for year y
Performance of individual i:
F(IYCVg,i)=F(Risk, Env, Equity, Econ)
Performance of generation g:
Fi = F(IYCVg,i) , i=1,…,I
Individuali=1,…,I
Generationg=1,…,G
YM(y)
Igiggg IYCVIYCVIYCVIYCV ,,1, ,,,,
Yig
yigigig IYCVIYCVIYCVIYCV ,,
1,, ,,,,
ig
yd
ycd
yd
ycd
yd
yyig TAXAwsIYCV
,,,, ,,3,2,1,
Inter-Year Control Variables (IYCV)
ws Water storageA Area for crop1 Distribution efficiency 2 Application efficiency 3 Drainage efficiencytax Salt discharge tax rate
Solving the IYCP
IYCP
IYCV
YMs
Sustainability Criteria
IYCP
IYCV
YMs
Sustainability Criteria
IYCP
IYCVIYCV
YMs
Sustainability Criteria
Sustainability Criteria
![Page 12: Long-Term River Basin Planning: GA-LP Approach Daene McKinney Center for Research in Water Resources University of Texas at Austin Ximing Cai International](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfa81a28abf838c9924f/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Application – Syr Darya Basin
Syr Darya
Amu Darya
![Page 13: Long-Term River Basin Planning: GA-LP Approach Daene McKinney Center for Research in Water Resources University of Texas at Austin Ximing Cai International](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfa81a28abf838c9924f/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Flow
(km3), Level (m), Area
(103 km2)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Irrigated Land
(106 ha)
Flow
Area
Level
Irrigated Land
Aral Sea Basin XX Cent.
![Page 14: Long-Term River Basin Planning: GA-LP Approach Daene McKinney Center for Research in Water Resources University of Texas at Austin Ximing Cai International](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfa81a28abf838c9924f/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Aral Sea Basin (1989 – 2000)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Ru
no
ff a
nd
In
flo
w (
km3)
Basin Runoff
Aral Inflow
•Question: Can irrigated agriculture be sustained while minimizing environmental impacts?
Amount being used for Irrigation
![Page 15: Long-Term River Basin Planning: GA-LP Approach Daene McKinney Center for Research in Water Resources University of Texas at Austin Ximing Cai International](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfa81a28abf838c9924f/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
ASB River System
PovodhashCanal
Karadarya R.AndijanRes.Side
Inflow
AndijanUse
SideInflow
Naryn R.Toktogul
Res.
KurpsaiRes.
TashkamurRes.
ShamaldysaiRes.
UchkurganRes.
Side Inflow
Toktogul-Uchkurgan Use
AdjarUse
KayrakumUse
KayrakumRes.
CharvakRes.
Charvak R.
UgamInflow Side
Inflow
ChirchikUse
SideInflow
Kayrakum-Chardara Use
Arnasai
Kyzlkum Canal
SideInflow
Chardara-Aral Sea Use
Aral Sea
Vahsh R.
NurekRes.
Pyandj R.
Kafirnigan R.
Kashka R.
Surhan R.Upper Amu
Use
BukharaCanal
KarshiCanal
KarakumCanal
TuyamuyunRes.
RightCanal
Dashauz
LeftCanalDrinking
Canal
Petniak-Tash-Urgench
Klichbaj-Kipchak-Gumabaj
Soviet-Oktjabra-Pahta
KizketkenCanal
LeninaCanal
PumpingIntake
SYR DARYA BASIN
AMU DARYA BASIN
Small River or Side Inflow
Main River Inflow
Run-of-the-river Reservoir
Storage Reservoir
Hydropower Plant (HPP)
Diversion to User
User
PovodhashCanal
Karadarya R.AndijanRes.Side
Inflow
AndijanUse
SideInflow
Naryn R.Toktogul
Res.
KurpsaiRes.
TashkamurRes.
ShamaldysaiRes.
UchkurganRes.
Side Inflow
Toktogul-Uchkurgan Use
AdjarUse
KayrakumUse
KayrakumRes.
CharvakRes.
Charvak R.
UgamInflow Side
Inflow
ChirchikUse
SideInflow
Kayrakum-Chardara Use
Arnasai
Kyzlkum Canal
SideInflow
Chardara-Aral Sea Use
Aral Sea
Vahsh R.
NurekRes.
Pyandj R.
Kafirnigan R.
Kashka R.
Surhan R.Upper Amu
Use
BukharaCanal
KarshiCanal
KarakumCanal
TuyamuyunRes.
RightCanal
Dashauz
LeftCanalDrinking
Canal
Petniak-Tash-Urgench
Klichbaj-Kipchak-Gumabaj
Soviet-Oktjabra-Pahta
KizketkenCanal
LeninaCanal
PumpingIntake
SYR DARYA BASIN
AMU DARYA BASIN
Small River or Side Inflow
Main River Inflow
Run-of-the-river Reservoir
Storage Reservoir
Hydropower Plant (HPP)
Diversion to User
User
Small River or Side Inflow
Main River Inflow
Run-of-the-river Reservoir
Storage Reservoir
Hydropower Plant (HPP)
Diversion to User
User
![Page 16: Long-Term River Basin Planning: GA-LP Approach Daene McKinney Center for Research in Water Resources University of Texas at Austin Ximing Cai International](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfa81a28abf838c9924f/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Irrigation Profit
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
n n w vw vd d n n n n n w n w d n w n n vd n d d d w n n n d d
Irri
ga
tio
n b
en
efi
t (b
ln U
S$
) Master
Baseline
Scenarios•Baseline: No change•Master: Area & efficiencies are DV’s•Low Irrigation: reduced area
![Page 17: Long-Term River Basin Planning: GA-LP Approach Daene McKinney Center for Research in Water Resources University of Texas at Austin Ximing Cai International](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfa81a28abf838c9924f/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Crop Areas(Master Scenario)
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
Baseline Year 1-10 Year 11-20 Year 21-30
Irri
gat
ed A
rea
(%)
Cotton
Wheat
Alfalfa
Other
![Page 18: Long-Term River Basin Planning: GA-LP Approach Daene McKinney Center for Research in Water Resources University of Texas at Austin Ximing Cai International](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfa81a28abf838c9924f/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Efficiencies(Master Scenario)
Application Efficiency
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
Baseline 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30
Ap
pli
ca
tio
n E
ffic
ien
cy
(%
)
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
Baseline 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30
Dis
trib
uti
on
Eff
icie
nc
y (
%)
Downstream
Midstream
Upstream
Distribution Efficiency
![Page 19: Long-Term River Basin Planning: GA-LP Approach Daene McKinney Center for Research in Water Resources University of Texas at Austin Ximing Cai International](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfa81a28abf838c9924f/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
n n w vw vd d n n n n n w n w d n w n n vd n d d d w n n n d d
So
il S
ali
nit
y (
dS
/m)
Baseline
Low Irrigation
SoilSalinity
Salt
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
n n w vw vd d n n n n n w n w d n w n n vd n d d d w n n n d d
Sa
lt d
isc
ha
rge
(th
ou
s t
on
ne
s)
Low Irrigation
SaltDischarge
![Page 20: Long-Term River Basin Planning: GA-LP Approach Daene McKinney Center for Research in Water Resources University of Texas at Austin Ximing Cai International](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfa81a28abf838c9924f/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Sustainability Criteria
Scenario REL REV VUL ENV TEQ SEQ EA
Baseline 4 4 4 3 3 3 NA
Master 2 2 1 2 2 1 1
Low Irrigation 1 1 2 1 1 2 2
High Irrigation 3 3 3 4 4 4 3
Sustainability criteria
![Page 21: Long-Term River Basin Planning: GA-LP Approach Daene McKinney Center for Research in Water Resources University of Texas at Austin Ximing Cai International](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfa81a28abf838c9924f/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Conclusions
• Modeling framework developed – short-term decisions combined with long-term
decisions to find sustainable patterns in irrigation-dominated river basins
• Results – Both soil and water salinity sensitive to changes in
irrigated area over the long-term– Small increases in irrigated area without
accompanying infrastructure improvements places the environment at risk
![Page 22: Long-Term River Basin Planning: GA-LP Approach Daene McKinney Center for Research in Water Resources University of Texas at Austin Ximing Cai International](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfa81a28abf838c9924f/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Conclusions
• Next Steps– Linking water and salt to energy– WB GEF project has incorporated
sustainability criteria into their project and are beginning to use the models
– Agricultural policy in the region– Both basins together (linked by energy)– Water allocation agreements
![Page 23: Long-Term River Basin Planning: GA-LP Approach Daene McKinney Center for Research in Water Resources University of Texas at Austin Ximing Cai International](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfa81a28abf838c9924f/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
CAR Energy System
X – SmallH – ThermalG – HydroA – UserO – Pool
Amu Darya
Syr Darya
CAEP
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
UzbekistanKazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
X1
H1 G1
G2
H2
X2
X3
H3G3
X4H4G4
X5 H5G5
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
O1 O2
O3
O4O5
![Page 24: Long-Term River Basin Planning: GA-LP Approach Daene McKinney Center for Research in Water Resources University of Texas at Austin Ximing Cai International](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfa81a28abf838c9924f/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Water Results Display
![Page 25: Long-Term River Basin Planning: GA-LP Approach Daene McKinney Center for Research in Water Resources University of Texas at Austin Ximing Cai International](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfa81a28abf838c9924f/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Energy Results Display
![Page 26: Long-Term River Basin Planning: GA-LP Approach Daene McKinney Center for Research in Water Resources University of Texas at Austin Ximing Cai International](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697bfa81a28abf838c9924f/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)