Past achievements and outlook of the Future Water and Energy supply of Aruba
Lighting Up the Future
Stakeholder Encounter with WEB Aruba ManagementAugustus – November 2019
Leading ChangeRELIABLY
AFFORDABLY
SUSTAINABLY
& SAFELY
Click to see video
Tree of Content
2. AchievementsReal Achievements in real time
1. Great Expectations“Take nothing on its looks; take
everything on evidence. There’s no better rule.”
Great Expectations – Charles Dickens
3. WEB Aruba NV TodayCurrent asset conditions and upcoming challenges in power and water production – an outlook
What’s in it for Aruba?The OUTCOMES and BENEFITS of the
program compared to the RISKS of the program
Outlook Beyond 2022Business cases currently in
development. Potential future major projects
4. Outlook 2019 – 2022 Projects in Execution
S
Our Stakeholder’s Expectations are Central – RAS(S) Framework
AAFFORDABLELOWER TARIFFSTARIFF STABILITYIMPROVED TARIFF MANAGEMENTR
RELIABLEINCREASE IN RELIABILITY
REDUCED RISK FOR BLACKOUTS/BROWNOUTS
SSAFEIMPROVED SAFETYIMPROVED WORK ENVIRONMENT
Great Expectations – Wishes & Desires
SUSTAINABLE IMPROVED PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY
IMPROVED ORGANIZATIONAL EFFICIENCYOPTIMAL MIX OF RE & NRE S
Real Achievements in Real Time
6,180 6,166 6,2275,635
5,2964,922 4,992
4,1723,791 3,852 3,664 3,846 3,834
3,679
6,180 6,258 6,403 6,166 6,228 6,209 6,278 6,077 6,108 6,056 6,189 6,328 6,344 6,221
0 45 87263
461637 636
942 1,147 1,091 1,249 1,228 1,2421,258
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
mT
/CO
2 pe
r day
Bbl/
day
HFO Consumption (Actual) HFO Consumption (Do Nothing) Emissions savings
RECIP PHASE 1
RECIP PHASE 3 + SWRO 2
SWRO Mobile
FESS+ BESS +IGMS/DATA
WIND VP
SOLAR SN
RECIP PHASE 2 + SWRO 1
BASE CASESTM+MSF
Investments & Results
Real Achievements in Real Time
18%40%less Fuel Consumption**from 2005
Renewable Energy penetration** AVG per year
Results:
Total Investments:
$ 268 Million
COMPLETED in 13 years
Total estimated Savings:
$ 620 Million
Savings compared to Base-scenario
25,975,545
52,978,416
7,633,885
123,731,522
9,649,167 7,062,724
29,222,222
12,277,778
0 1,550,1393,334,565
15,090,10518,879,013
34,416,946
46,561,824
71,428,102
82,213,18479,597,210
75,002,891
67,438,379
59,918,66465,214,513
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Inve
stm
ent i
n $
Savi
ngs i
in $
/yr
Projects Investment ($) Savings (ACT) Savings (Platts)
RECIP Ph 3+ SWRO 2
RECIP Ph 1
RECIP Ph 2+ SWRO 1
WP VP
B2P SWRO Mobile + EDI
SOLAR/FESSBESS/DATACEN
IGMS + AUX
Power Tariff comparison in Caribbean
Source: Caribbean Power and Water Production Benchmark - 2014
Power & Water Tariff comparison Locally
Source: WEB Aruba, WEB Bonaire, Aqualectra, GEBE per Jan. 1, 2019
Historical Trend Fuel Price & Tariffs
0 92
175531
9321,286 1,286
1,9042,317 2,204
2,525 2,482 2,510 2,542 2,566$36.2
$46.4$52.1
$77.8
$55.5
$73.3
$99.2 $102.8$97.2 $98.95
$81.4$74.5
$65.4$70.3
$60.0
$0.0
$20.0
$40.0
$60.0
$80.0
$100.0
$120.0
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
HFO in
$/Bbl
Saving
s in Bb
l/day
Delta ACT HFO Cost HFO Cost Platts
IMO 2020 starts 1st January 2020, future of HFO price & supply more uncertain
WEB Aruba TodayPressures & Challenges
Age of Production AssetsOld and inefficient production assets.Boilers are practically all written off.No gains in renovating old and inefficient assets.
Fuel Oil Volatility & O&M CostFuel oil volatility and Geopolitics.
Rising O&M cost on fuel oil.Fuel oil market instability.
MindsetNo more Monopoly.The sky is not the limit.
Tariff Pressure & ElasticityTariff lowering pressure.
Poor or no tariff elasticity.Financial hedging just buys time and not
tariff sustainability.
Reliable & EfficientReliable reserves and efficient fuel consumption are
antagonistic forces. Peak demand and average demand gap is widening.
The CompetitionDecreasing cost of distributed RE
Companies with deep pockets offering lease deals.
Changing Landscape of the Electricity MarketWEB Aruba Today
Lease Agreements with fixed monthly tariffs. Net-Zero and Grid
Defection options are becoming more feasible for the Low &
Middle Class Consumers.
Rise of the Autonomous distributed Renewables Market
ENERGY SAVERS
AUTONOMOUSPV-SOLAR
HOME BATTERY STORAGE
LEASE DEALS
Outlook 2019 - 2022
Capital Projects
Non-Capital Projects
RECIP conversion
to Gas if LNG
Approved
Grand Dismantling(OPEX)
OMOA:O&M
Organizational Adaptation
T&DP:Training &
Development Project
Business Continuity
Plans
6 W50DF RECIP Phase IV
New SWRO 3
RECIP Phase IV6 W50DF RECIP engines. All boilers are
replaced. Total 102 MW Installed Capacity. Grass Root project. Q1 2021
(RECIP Conversion to NG)All RECIP engines converted to DUAL Fuel operation (NG/HFO). 10 Engines
total. 92 MW capacity. Depends on LNG FID approval Q4 2020
New SWRO 3>18000 M3 capacity new SWRO unit.
Grass root project. 2022
IGMS/ILS advanced system controlsImplementation of advanced system controls
technology in preparation for high RE grid penetration. Robust ICT Infrastructure enabling all technologies for
controlling all the generation unitsQ1 2020
Capital Projects
RECIP Phase IV
RECIP to NG
New RO3
Outlook 2019 - 2022
IGMS/ILS advanced
system controls
LNG Import Business Case in Development in pursuit of going HSFO Free by 2023 (Programa 2020)
Outlook 2019 - 2022Impact of RECIP phase IV and SWRO 3 Projects
6,180 6,166 6,227
5,6355,296
4,922 4,992
4,1723,791 3,852
3,6643,846 3,834 3,679 3,616
3,0142,771
6,166 6,228 6,209 6,2786,077 6,108 6,056 6,189 6,328 6,344 6,226 6,182 6,182 6,182
0 45 87 263 461 637 636942 1,147 1,091 1,249 1,228 1,242 1,258 1,270
1,568 1,688
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
mT /
CO2 p
er d
ay
Bbl/d
ay
HFO Consumption (Actual) HFO Consumption (Do Nothing) Emissions savings
Forecast
RECIP PHASE 4
SWRO 3
BASE CASESTM+MSF
Outlook 2019 - 2022Impact of RECIP phase IV and SWRO 3
Projects
Renewable Energy penetration** AVG per year
18%
Results:
55%
Total Investments:
$ 147 Million
PROJECT IN EXECUTION
less Fuel Consumption**from 2005
Total add. Savings per year*:
$ 27 Million*At $60/Bbls (RECIP4 + SWRO3)
Outlook Beyond 2022Potential Projects currently in Business Case Development Phase
6,180 6,166 6,227
5,6355,296
4,922 4,992
4,1723,791 3,852
3,6643,846 3,834 3,679 3,616
3,0142,771
2,055
6,166 6,228 6,209 6,2786,077 6,108 6,056 6,189 6,328 6,344 6,226 6,182 6,182 6,182 6,182
2,121
0 45 87 263 461 637 636942 1,147 1,091 1,249 1,228 1,242 1,258 1,270
1,568 1,6882,042 2,382
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
mT /
CO2 p
er d
ay
Bbl/d
ay
HFO Consumption (Actual) HFO Consumption (Do Nothing) Emissions savings
Potential Projects
SOLAR2 + WIND2 + W2E
Forecast
NG EquivalentPotential Project
HFO to LNG CONVERSION
BASE CASESTM+MSF
The Water Tariff is largely determined by the cost of electricity. With the increase in power production efficiency the water tariff management and stability is improved. This realistically increases the possibilities for a responsible downward trend in water tariffs.
Affordable and Sustainable Water Tariffs
The crux of the electricity tariff is 3-fold: The price of fuel, the thermal efficiency, and the organizational O&M efficiency. The Programa 2020 is designed to improve on all three influential parameters. Affordable and innovative new power tariff structures are made possible. Power Tariff stability, responsible downward pressure, and Power Tariff competitiveness is improved.
Affordable and Sustainable Power Tariffs
In conjunction with the projects led by the ARES Group, a technically and financial responsible mix in RE and NRE is achieved in an economic justifiable way. By negotiating favorable RE capital cost projects and/or IPP tariffs, the supplement of RE in the mix results in improving the robustness of power tariffs.
Balanced Mix RE & NRE Improving Tariff stability
New and Modernized Power Generation Assets, in conjunction with state of the art system controls will considerably improve the reliability and flexibility of power generation across the board. Faster ramping and responding units (RECIPS) practically guarantee a continuity of power production that is currently unavailable but necessary.
Improved Power Generation Reliability
The environmental value of the WHOLE is incalculable and its IMAGE as a Caribbean FIRST in Tourism is of great value.
What's in it for ARUBA
Outlook 2019 - 2022
Photographic View
Project Desmantelation 2020
Flywheel Park
Battery Energy Storage System’ (BESS)
Sunrise Solar Park – Lago Heights
Renovation Pipe Bridge Spaans Lagoen
RECIP ENGINE
Project RECIP IV
History in the Making'59, '91, 2006, and now 2019!
Cleaner, more Agile, more Competitive.
Renewables & Natural Gas fully Integrated at most
Competitive Tariffs.A FIRST in the Caribbean!
MASHA DANKI