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Lessons Learned:One-Atmosphere Photochemical Modeling
in Southeastern U.S.
Presentation from Southern Appalachian Mountains Initiativeto Meeting of Regional Planning Organizations
December 3, 2002
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SAMI Atmospheric Modeling
Unique Contributions: Demonstrated fully-integrated one-atmosphere model
ozone, aerosols, and deposition“performance comparable to or better than recent
applications of CMAQ or REMSAD”
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In 1997 selected to use: RAMS-3B meteorological model EMS-95 emissions model Urban to Regional Multi-scale (URM) air quality model
variable grid (12-km over Southern Appalachian Mountains) SAPRC chemical mechanism for gasesISORROPIA for aerosolsReactive Scavenging Module for depositionDecoupled Direct Method for sensitivity to emissions changes
SAMI Atmospheric Model
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SAMI Atmospheric Modeling Domain
Georgia Institute of Technology
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SAMI Atmospheric Modeling
Unique Contributions: Selected episodes to represent annual and seasonal
air quality measures based on meteorology characterized for 5-year period9 episodes in Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug
Lesson learned: prioritize computational power: greater spatial resolution or longer time periods?
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SAMI Atmospheric Model: Lessons Learned
Emissions Inventory uncertainties: especially NH3, primary OC; non-road, area sources
Meteorological Model performance: clouds and precipitation affect chemistry and deposition wind speed and direction, mixing heights affect transport
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SAMI Atmospheric Model: Lessons Learned
Air Quality Observations limited spatially and temporally: PM2.5 data, especially NH4 wet and dry deposition data vertical profiles for initial and boundary conditions
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SAMI Atmospheric Model: Lessons Learned
Photochemical Model Performance: SO4 and OC best performance (+/- 50%), largest
components of PM2.5 overpredict NO3, soil, and EC; small components SO4 not fully neutralized by NH4, atmosphere NH4-
limited need better measures: NH3, NH4, primary vs secondary
OC
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URM Model Performance - Fine Particle Mass Great Smoky Mtns
2/01/01
SO4 NO3 NH4 ORG EC SOIL
0
10.0
20.0
30.0
Con
cent
ratio
n (
g/m
3)
Class 5Class 4Class 3Class 2Class 1
2/09/94 3/24/93 4/26/95 8/04/93 8/07/93 8/11/93 7/12/95 7/31/91 7/15/95
Modeled (left) IMPROVE (right)
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July 1995May 1995May 1993March 1993February 1994July 1991June 1992August 1993April 1995
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0
IMPROVE Measurements (g/m3)
UR
M M
odel
ed C
once
ntra
tion
(g/
m3)
URM Model Performance: Sulfate Fine Particle Mass
+ 50%
- 50%
(based on data from 3-10 IMPROVE sites in 12, 24, and 48 km grids)
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July 1995May 1995May 1993March 1993February 1994July 1991June 1992August 1993April 1995
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0
URM Model Performance: PM2.5 MassU
RM
Mod
eled
Con
cent
ratio
n (
g/m
3)
IMPROVE Measurements (g/m3)
+ 50%
- 50%
(based on data from 3-10 IMPROVE sites in 12, 24, and 48 km grids)
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Wet Ammonium Deposition Normalized Percent Bias
0
50
100
150
200
250
July 11-18, 1995
May 23-30, 1995
May 11-18, 1993
March 23-30,1993
Feb 8-15, 1994
April 26 - M
ay 3,1995
August 3-11,
1993
June 24-29,1992
July 23-30, 1991
Nor
mal
ized
Per
cent
Bia
s
(based on data from 9-14 NADP wet deposition sites in 12, 24, and 48 km grids)
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SAMI Atmospheric Modeling
Unique Contributions: To assess effects, used modeled relative change in
air quality to adjust measured air quality:visibility ozone effects to forestsacid deposition effects to streams and forests
Lesson learned: bound relative reduction factor by model performance
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SAMI Atmospheric Modeling
Unique Contributions: Used direct sensitivity analyses to evaluate state
contributions to Class I areasDecoupled Direct Method (DDM-3D) evaluated responses to 10% change in emissions
Lessons learned: trust relative contributions rather than absolute daily source contributions from DDM compare favorably to
daily back trajectories
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DDM Sensitivity Performance
GaseousSpecies
Aerosol Species
Wet Deposition
Species
SO2 NOx NH3 VOCsOzone Good Good
SO2 Good
NH3 Good
SO4 Good Good
NO3 Good Poor Good
NH4 Good Good Fair Good
OC Good Good
ECSOIL
PM2.5 Good Good Poor Good
SO4 Good
NO3 Poor Good Poor Good
NH4 Poor Poor Poor Poor
Fair
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Annual SO4 Fine Particles Response to 10% Reduction in SO2 Emissions from 2010 A2 strategy
SO4
Fine
Par
ticle
Res
pons
e (%
)
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
Sip
sey,
AL
Co
hu
tta,
GA
Joyc
e K
ilm
er,
NC
Gre
at S
mo
kyM
tn,
TN
Sh
inin
gR
ock
, N
C
Lin
vill
eG
org
e, N
C
Jam
es R
iver
F
ace,
VA
Sh
enan
ho
ah,
VA
Ott
er C
reek
, W
V
Do
lly
So
ds,
WV
Non-SAMI states
SAMI states
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Appendix
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Sulfate Aerosol Normalized Percent Bias
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
7/12/19957/15/19957/19/19995/24/19955/27/19955/12/19935/15/19933/24/19933/27/19933/31/19932/9/19942/12/19944/26/19954/29/19955/3/19956/24/19926/27/19928/4/19938/7/19938/11/19937/24/19917/27/19917/31/1991
Nor
mal
ized
Per
cent
Bia
s
(based on data from 3-10 IMPROVE sites in 12, 24, and 48 km grids)
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Ammonium Aerosol Normalized Percent Bias
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
7/12/1995
7/15/1995
7/19/1999
5/24/1995
5/27/1995
5/12/1993
5/15/1993
3/24/1993
3/27/1993
3/31/1993
2/9/1994
2/12/1994
4/26/1995
4/29/1995
5/3/1995
6/24/1992
6/27/1992
8/4/1993
8/7/1993
8/11/1993
7/24/1991
7/27/1991
7/31/1991N
orm
aliz
ed M
ean
Bia
s
(based on data from 3-10 IMPROVE sites in 12, 24, and 48 km grids)
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Organic Aerosol Normalized Percent Bias
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
7/12/1995
7/15/1995
7/19/1999
5/24/1995
5/27/1995
5/12/1993
5/15/1993
3/24/1993
3/27/1993
3/31/1993
2/9/1994
2/12/1994
4/26/1995
4/29/1995
5/3/1995
6/24/1992
6/27/1992
8/4/1993
8/7/1993
8/11/1993
7/24/1991
7/27/1991
7/31/1991N
orm
aliz
ed P
erce
nt B
ias
(based on data from 3-10 IMPROVE sites in 12, 24, and 48 km grids)
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Nitrate Aerosol Normalized Percent Bias
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
7/12/1995
7/15/19957/19/19995/24/19955/27/19955/12/19935/15/19933/24/19933/27/19933/31/19932/9/19942/12/19944/26/19954/29/19955/3/19956/24/19926/27/19928/4/19938/7/19938/11/19937/24/19917/27/19917/31/1991
Nor
mal
ized
Per
cent
Bia
s
(based on data from 3-10 IMPROVE sites in 12, 24, and 48 km grids)
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PM 2.5 Normalized Percent Bias
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2/9/94
3/24/93
3/31/93
4/29/95
5/15/93
5/24/95
6/24/92
7/24/91
7/31/91
7/15/95
8/4/93
8/11/93N
orm
aliz
ed B
ias
(%)
Normalized Bias of +/- 50% is potential criteria for aerosol model performance
(based on data from 3-10 IMPROVE aerosol sites in 12, 24, and 48 km grids)
2/12/94
3/27/93
4/26/95
5/12/93
5/21/95
5/27/95
6/27/92
7/27/91
7/12/95
7/19/95
8/7/93
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Modeled on Left, IMPROVE On Right
URM Model Results vs. Observations for July 15, 1995
PM 2
.5 (
g/m
3)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
Aerosol Model Performance
Sipsey,AL
GreatSmoky
Mtns.,TN
Shining Rock,
NC
James River
Face, VA
Shenandoah,VA
Dolly Sods, WV
2/01/01
SO4 NO3 NH4 ORG EC SOIL
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Wet Sulfate Deposition Normalized Percent Bias
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
July 11-18,1995
May 23-30,1995
May 11-18,1993
March 23-
30, 1993
Feb 8-15,1994
April 26 -M
ay 3,1995
August 3-
11, 1993
June 24-29,1992
July 23-30,1991
Nor
mal
ized
Per
cent
Bia
s
(based on data from 9-14 NADP wet deposition sites in 12, 24, and 48 km grids)
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Confidence Levels in SAMI 1990 Base Year inventory
Utility Industry HighwayVehicles
NonroadEngines
Area
SO2 +++++ ++++ +++ ++ ++
NOx +++++ ++++ +++ ++ ++
VOC +++ +++ +++ ++ ++
NH3 +++ +++ ++ + +
PM2.5 +++ +++ ++ + +