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Learning from the I-TREND projectHow and why set up a digital monitoring
Magali Martinez,
Agnès Cadet-Taïrou
TREND UNIT, OFDT
Poznan, 26/10/2016Co-funded by
European Union
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Focal Points usual sources
Custom and police SEIZURES
Public Health Signals
(decease, non fatal intoxication, serious
adverse effect,)
Ethnographicobservation
(Trend network in France)
Sample collection through users
(DIMS in the Netherlands)
General Population Survey or specificstatistical studies
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2011, NPS waves
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Focal Points usual sources
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I-TREND’s workstreams
NPS TOP LIST
WS 5
Trigger
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Usual sources
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I-TREND’s workstreams
Technical
Folders
WS 5
Achievement
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I-TREND’s workstreams
NPS TOP LIST
Online Survey
WS 4
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I-TREND’s workstreams
NPS TOP LIST
Online Shops
Online Survey
WS 2
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I-TREND’s workstreams
NPS TOP LIST
Online Shops
Online Survey
Chemical analysis
WS 3
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I-TREND’s workstreams
NPS TOP LIST
Forums
Online Shops
Online Survey
Chemical analysis
WS 1
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I-TREND’s workstreams
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I-TREND’s workstreams
TechnicalFolders
Forums
Online Shops
Online Survey
Chemical analysis
Plus usual
sources !
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Difficulties encountered
Too many…..
I-TREND is a prototype –
Greater stake was to create software
Fitted specifically for drugs researches
Cheaper !
Eg. For WS1, French projects in medical field
around 100x more expansive.
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Forums software Functioning
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WS1 software Functioning
Thread n°1
Thread n°2
Thread n°3
Thread n°4
……
AKB-48
3-MMC
Purchase
Adress
MXE
Arylcyclohexylamine
Dissociative
Cathinone
Stimulant
1st level2nd level
NPS Names
3rd levels
Categories
Thematic
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Purpose
Detection of peaks in the number of
views/ activity for being accurately
informed about which NPS attract users’
attention
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Purpose
be informed of:
Evolution of the audience : stable,
falling, decreasing,
Keep tracks of events – memory of
the past
Identify the trigger of observed
changes
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Results -Information on the audience structure
Very few compounds are discussed and fewer are
elected
• Eg. 112 cathinones at EU level,
The most famous NPS on forums exceed others
NPS several times more
NPS are split among 3 or 4 groups of
importance / audience
UK FR PL NL
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Cathinones in France
1st Group < 25 views
2nd Group < 100 views
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Cathinones in France, plus 3-MMC
3rd Group > 100 views
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Users interest is very stable over the time,
Following examples based on EDND families and not
on substances – for better visibility
Results -Information on the audience structure
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In the Netherlands - Phenethelamines
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Threads on 4-FA
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In Poland - Cathinones
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Threads on 4-MMC
Threads on 3-MMC
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In The United Kingdom
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Threads on Branded
products
Threads on Etizolam
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Each country has its “national preferences”
UK, Branded Products, etizolam, ethylphenidate,
AL-LAD, LSZ.
NL, 4-FA, 6-APB and 2C-B.
PL, 4-MMC and 3-MMC, Branded Product and mix
of synthetic cannabinoids.
FR, 3-MMC and synthetic cannabinoids with e-
liquid form
Results - Information on each national drug context
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Forums are different
More or less open toward online vendors
More or less eager to accept branded
products
Publicity on or the right to use branded
names vs chemical names in online
discussions
Frequented by different type of users
Results -Information on each national drug context
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E
Psychonaut
USERS in
PRECARIOUS
situation
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Sub-groups observed through francophone forums and real ethnographic observations
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Sub-groups of users do not discover
each NPS at the same time
Changes could happen when one
sub-group of users is about to
discovering one NPS, in regard with its
consumption scheme
Eg. Alpha-PVP
Results -Information on each national drug context
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Alpha-PVP in France, Poland and the United-Kingdom
1st period
Sold online
E-psychonaut
disinterest
3rd period
New readers,
New types of
comments
2nd period
Start to be
sold in
street
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Changes could also be linked with new
consumption tools
Eg. 5F-AKB-48 e-liquid form in France
Results -Information on each national drug context
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In France EDND Families
Just two
E-liquid
discussions on
> 800 threads
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It could be obvious to say today that NPS
are
A global phenomenon, with local
particularities
Could be in stabilisation phase
But
Hardly demonstrable and few
documented, whereas there is a need to
understand,
Conclusion
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Why one NPS spreads across one
country and not in another ?
Which NPS are likely to spread in lot of
countries ?
Short term questions
Should we ban NPS in group or not ?
And if not, which one should be banned ?
Eg. MDPV, synthetic opiates…. contrasted national
situations.
Conclusion
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Long term question
NPS could become or not a
“significant” trend in general population ?
If not for the Millennial generation, what
about the Z Generation ?
Conclusion
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Monitoring digital spaces as we do with
low threshold services, prescription drugs,
school, nightlife settings, is a stake ahead
of us
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www.i-trend.euThanks for your [email protected]
European project JUST/2012/DPIP/AG/3641 co-financed by the
Drug Prevention and Information Program of the European Union.The author declares no conflicts of interest.
Co-funded by
European Union
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