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INFOMASTER SEWERRISK ASSESSMENT CALIBRATIONInfoMaster User Group Meeting | December 9, 2016
LANI GOOD, PE COURTNEY HALL, PE
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Presentation Outline
Introduction Initial Risk Model Setup Risk Calibration Results Validation
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Introduction
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USD Study
USD system: 787 miles of gravity sewer, 6 pump stations, and 25 miles of force mains
Project Goal: Use a business risk assessment to guide modifications to the CS preventative maintenance program
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Initial Risk Model Setup
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Risk Assessment Methods
Bi-directional Distribution Custom 3x3 or 5x5
LOFxCOF Matrix Linear Normalization
Classification For a monetary
assessment
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Linear Normalization Classification Method
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Risk Assessment Methods
Bi-directional Distribution Custom 3x3 or 5x5
LOFxCOF Matrix Calibrated by Value or %
Linear Normalization Classification For a monetary
assessment Multi-Criterion Classification
Optimistic risk vs. pessimistic risk
Asset Grading Classification
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Developing Risk Factors/Criteria
Limit the number of criteria used Considerations for valid criteria: Evaluation information must be readily available
Example: Manhole proximity to storm drain outfall to creek
The same evaluation information should not be used for more than one criterion Example: Street classification as a factor for Emergency
Access and for Public Traffic Impacts
Evaluation information must be available for a majority of assets Example: Sewer Likelihood of Structural Failure partial CCTV
data vs. pipe age data used to evaluate
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Filling Data Gaps Using Proxy Data
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Typical Sewer Failure Modes
Structural Failure Maintenance Failure Hydraulic Capacity Failure
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Likelihood of Failure Rating Factors
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Structural Defect Score
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Pipe Installation Year (Proxy for Structural Defects)
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Likelihood of Failure Rating Factors
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Typical Maintenance Failure Factors
CCTV Maintenance Defects Strong indicator if Positive Weak indicator if Negative
Pre-CCTV cleaning and root cutting Low-frequency CCTV inspection vs. maintenance defect
reoccurrence
High Frequency Maintenance Schedule Couldn’t use for USD because if high PM frequency = high
risk, then study couldn’t evaluate reducing the PM frequency
Number of Non-routine Work Order Hours Number of Total Work Orders
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Maintenance Defect Score
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Non-Routine Labor Hours
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Rating Scale, Logic, Weighting
Rating Scale 1-10 scale vs. 1-5 scale
1-10: how do you define a difference between a 6 and a 7?
When to use 0 vs. 1
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Rating Scale, Logic, Weighting
Rating Logic Weighting Internal weighting in 0-5 scale
Weighting factors
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InfoMaster DemoRating Scale, Rating Logic, and Weighting
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Typical Sewer Consequences of Failure Regulatory Compliance Impacts Impacts to Environmentally Sensitive Areas Public Health Impacts Emergency Response Cost
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Consequence of Failure Rating Factors
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Public Exposure
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Risk Calibration
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Calibration
Risk Assessment Goals Phasing – somewhat equal risk categories by %
Max/Min Scaling – pipes scored in both upper and lower risk areas
Monetary evaluation
Initial Results – Factor by Factor Looking for differentiation between scores – using
GIS figures
Adjust ranges of values in each rating category
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Risk Calibration
Setting 5x5 or 3x3 risk matrix score boundaries By % of pipes (quantity or length) in each risk level
By value - using engineering judgement
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InfoMaster DemoRisk Calibration
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Demo – Risk Calibration
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Final Risk Results
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Results Validation
USD Map – Figure 20 Results
Risk Assessment Results
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Results Validation
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Results Validation
USD Map – Figure 20 Results
Risk Assessment Results
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Results Validation
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Results Validation