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Kenneth Irvine, Chair of Aquatic EcosystemsUNESCO-IHE, Delft, The Netherlands
Lament, Declare, Ignore –
Moving beyond aquatic conservationfor Lemmings
Twitter: @kirvine_water
7th Water Research Horizon Conference, Dessau 28th June 2016
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Dedication: Brian Moss, 1943-2016
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…at the global political level
Veganstreat.org,
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Reaching the MDG Sanitation Target
Progress on sanitation and drinking water – 2015 update and MDG assessment. UNICEF and WHO (2015) http://www.wssinfo.org/fileadmin/user_upload/resources/JMP-Update-report-2015_English.pdf
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…at issue level
vv
www.bbc.co.uk/news
www.talkvietnam.org
Sakumono Ramsar site Accra
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vv
Critical
Good
Heritage Sites and conservation outlook in threatened biodiversity biodiversity hotspots
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…at the corporate level
www.sustainableplant.com
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…at the corporate level(1) http://www.groupe-castel.com/en/environment
Website statement of the French CastelGroup who control the BGI brewery,
Kolbolcha, Ethiopia.
“Our commitment to minimising the negative environmental and social impact of our activities is not just a passing fad. It
is a logical extension of the quality commitments we first drew up in the 1990s,
now consolidated by our new Environmental Management System. At its core lies a clear economic logic: the Castel
Group’s future success will be wholly dependent on achieving a close synergy
with our «ecosystem»…” (1)
Untreated BGI outfall, 2013
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Nurient Enrichment: A Global Problem here to stay?
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What we get is not what we want
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Diaz and Selman 2010
Africa
• Only 20 eutrophic documented
• Undoubtedly many more, but lack of water quality data prevents assessment
Global Enrichment of Coastal Zones
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This year's dead zone will likely be nearly a third larger than normalwww.motherjones.com/environment/2016/06/gulf-mexico-braces-monsterous-dead-zone
Mississippi Delta USA
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2007
Danubs, 2005
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RBDMP Update 2015
• Projected declines in nutrient emmissions.
• Reductions anticipated from EU Detergent Regulation
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Results of Joint Danube Survey 2 (2007) www.icpdr.org
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High
Good
Moderate
Poor
Bad
EQR=1
EQR=0
Status Deviation
No/minimal
Slight
Moderate
EQR= Observed value
Reference value
Classboundary
High/good status
Good/Moderate status
Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC): “Water quality” without ecological function
Ecological Status determined by the biology, supported by chemistry and hydromorphology
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www.ecofactireland.com
Example 1: Freshwater Pearl Mussel (Maragitifera maragritifera). Protected under EU Habitats Directive
• High oxygen, minimal silt, low nutrients• Intermediate fish host
Longevity > 100 years
• Irish EPA High status target SRP : < 25 μg/l average
• Scadanavian total phosphorus < 5-15 μg/l average
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Locval Impacts, big effect. Oily Catchment Donegal,
2011
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Lowland calcareous lake with recent and historical impact
Hobbs,W, Irvine, K. and Donohue, I. (2005) Using sediments to assess the resistance of a calcareous lake to
diffuse nutrient loading. Arch für Hydro, 164: 109-125
Example 2: Lough Carra SAC, Western Ireland
Designated WFD Status: High Ecological Quality
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Humans
Cattle
>20 ha<20 ha
Donohue et al (2010) Rapid ecosystem recovery from diffuse pollution after the Great Irish Famine
Ecological Applications. 20: 1733–1743
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".. there is evidence that the ecology of the lake and the underlying water quality in the lake is deteriorating."
High Status: No or minimal impact compared withreference, using
intercalibrated methods
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Projected increases
Dairy: milk prod.+50%Beef: output value +20%Pig production +35%
“plans and programmes which contribute to European and world economic recovery are of relevance to Food Harvest 2020”
Food Harvest 2020. Environmental Analysis. Farelly & Co, 2014). Report to DAFM
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Relationship between cattle density and lake TP
I ha-1 3 ha-1
Irvine et al. (2000). The use of empirical relationships and nutrient export coefficients for
predicting phosphorus concentrations in Irish lakes. Int. Verh. Ver. Limnol., 27: 1127-1131.
(35 µg TP l-1 )
(10 µg TP l-1 )
Risk Factors
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Moving to the zone of medocrity
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Moving to the zone of medocrity
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Schoumans et al. 2015. Phosphorus management in Europe in a changing world, Ambio, 44: (Supl 2) 180-192
Consumption of phosphate fertilizers in teragram P2O5
(1 Tg = 1012 g = 1 million ton) during the period 1960–2012
But, unevendistribution of use
Feeding the world, a dilemma for water quality
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Mean, minimum (min), and maximum (max) values of annual chemical P fertilizer use per ha of agricultural land (in kg P2O5 per ha per year) for 1961–2012 and 2008–2012 (based on FAOSTAT 2014)
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Migina Catchment, Rwanda
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(move cursor over object to activate video control)
Why Aquatic Conservation forLemmings? Video shown
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Mental Models
Source: World Development Report 2015
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Mental Models –
the pull of collective patterns
Source: World Development Report 2015
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Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
MOVING BEYOND THE
LEMMING MINDSET
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http://www.global-integration.com/blog/breaking-down-silos/
Step 1: Get out of the silo
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Irvine et al. (2015) Educating for Action: Aligning Skills with Policies for Sustainable Development in the Danube River Basin. Science of the Total Environment (in press)
Basin managers as sustainability change agents
Example Danube:Harmonizing economic, educational, environmental and social strategies
www.panda.org
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Brian Moss
“The most dangerous worldview is the world view of those who have not viewed the world”
“Change will have to come from the bottom-up, from the people, since the top-down approach will continue to fail us. In this scientists have a duty to move from their concentration on small problems and their personal advancement, to a wider view and a role in education and leadership, if we are to have a reasonably comfortable future”.
Aldo Leopold:
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@AcademicsSay
Brexit, Understanding and the global future
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What to Conclude?
From lament to meaningful monitoring
• Cross sectoral buy in
• Accessible and trusted information
• Citizen engagement
Declare with commitment
• Moving from metrics to understanding
• Accountability
• Communication
Ignore at our peril
• Capacity development
• Political engagement
• Broader education
Avoiding therisks of a fixedparadigm
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Civil Society
Enabling Environment
Cross-sectoral Knowledge & Capacity Development
Requires concerted efforts at multiple levels
KCD is aimed at solving problems and improving performance.
If problems and challenges change, so does the required capacity.
Policy
Strategy
Priorities
Regulatory Framework
Organisational
Procedures
Routines
Knowledge Management
Incentive Systems
IndividualKnowledge
Experience
Skills
Attitudes
Ecological literacy
Resilience
Courtesy of Uta Wehn, 2014
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Falkenmark (2004) Two particular imperatives to pay much more attention to in view of the conflicts of water-dependent interests: …food security….[and]…ecological security.
'Towards integrated catchment management: opening the paradigm locks between hydrology, ecology and policy-making', International Journal of Water Resources Development, 20:3, 275 -281
Safeguarding Global Ecosystem Health
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?